I’ve been writing about NFL strength of schedule numbers – look
RIGHT HERE for my previous blog on the subject, or simply scroll down a bit further and you can read Part 1. Today, I’m going to review the concepts in play here and give two specific examples of where sharp bettors can find solid value using my TRUE strength of schedule numbers.
Every preseason publication and the NFL itself ranks strength of schedule (SOS) based on last year’s win-loss records. It’s a very simple formula – add up all of last year’s wins and all the losses from the opponents on any given team’s schedule, and you’ll get the NFL’s formula. If a team plays a handful of opponents that exceeded expectations last year, their SOS will be tougher. The converse is also true – if a team plays a handful of opponents that performed below expectations last year, their SOS will be weaker.
I make my TRUE NFL SOS numbers based on this year’s season Over-Under win totals. Rather than use last year’s records as my basis, I use the numbers for THIS season. I take a handful of sportsbooks, using numbers that have already been bet into shape by the sharpest bettors in the business. I adjust the numbers using a simple formula to factor in the juice. A team lined at 8 Over (+110) is not as strong as a team lined at 8 Over (-140). It’s a pain in the ass to do, but the results are surely worth it – we get a much better assessment of a teams true SOS based on the current market than we do from looking at last year’s numbers.
Here are two examples. According to the NFL, the Atlanta Falcons face one of the easiest schedules in the league this year. Atlanta’s opponents combined for a .473 winning percentage last year, tied for the 27th weakest schedule in the league. Here’s what Atlanta’s 16 game schedule looks like:
Minnesota
Jacksonville
Carolina
Houston
Tennessee
NY Giants
New Orleans
San Francisco
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Indianapolis
St Louis
New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Arizona
Seattle
Let’s note a few things about this schedule. First, the Falcons play only one of the league’s weakest teams: Buffalo, Houston, Detroit, Oakland, Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee or themselves, the eight teams that are all lined lower than 6.75 wins (using my ‘adjusting juice to wins’ formula).
Secondly, the Falcons play a large number of teams that are projected to be significantly better than last year, according to this year’s O-U win totals. Minnesota, Jacksonville, Carolina, Houston, San Francisco, Tampa Bay and Arizona are all projected to be better teams in ’07 than they were in ’06. Put it all together and according to my numbers, the Falcons play one of the toughest schedules in the NFL in ’07, not one of the weakest, as the NFL would have you think.
Here’s a team on the opposite end of the spectrum. According to the NFL, the Oakland Raiders play the single toughest schedule in the league this year (tied with Buffalo), facing opponents with a combined winning percentage of .539. Here is the Raiders schedule that the league respects so much:
Detroit
Denver
Cleveland
Miami
San Diego
Kansas City
Tennessee
Houston
Chicago
Minnesota
Kansas City
Denver
Green Bay
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
San Diego
Every other team in Oakland’s division finished at 9-7 or better last year, including two games against the 14-2 Chargers. Oakland also faces the Colts and the Bears, giving them four games in total against some of the best teams in football from 2006, each of whom finished at 12-4 or better. It makes perfect sense, according to the league’s formula, to rank Oakland’s schedule as a tough one.
But when you apply my formula to the picture, things change dramatically. First, Oakland plays a litany of teams lined as the weakest teams in football: Detroit, Cleveland, Miami, Tennessee and Houston.
Secondly, the Raiders play a number of teams that are lined lower than their results from last year – the sharp sports betting marketplace expects all of these teams to be at least slightly worse this year: San Diego, Kansas City, Tennessee, Chicago, Green Bay and Indianapolis.
Put those two factors together and you’ll see a wide disparity between the NFL’s numbers and my numbers. I have the Raiders ranked tied for 22nd in the NFL in terms of strength of schedule difficult, in sharp contrast to what the league projects.
I hope this helps explain what the heck I’ve been talking about on the radio for the last few days. Tomorrow, I’ll blog about my 2006 NFL season O-U win report, another profitable year from a report that has cashed at a 72% clip since 2001 (38-15). That report will be available on Tuesday morning, 9 AM Pacific Time.
For more articles and blogs by Teddy Covers. go to www.sportsmemo.com. 
