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Denver Broncos Betting Preview

08.20.2008     12:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Overview - The Broncos streak of five consecutive winning seasons came to a screeching halt in 2007, as Denver suffered their first losing record since 1999.  They suffered six losses by two touchdowns or more, including a particularly ugly 41-3 home loss to San Diego and a 44-7 road loss at Detroit.  In the offseason, the Broncos shook up their staff in a big way, bringing in a new GM and new coordinators on both sides of the football.

Mike Shanahan is the dean of NFL head coaching, now in his 14th season with the Broncos.  Owner Pat Bowlen seems to consider Shanahan his coach-for-life’, so there’s less pressure for an immediate turnaround in Denver as there probably is in other places around the league.  Still, with only one playoff win since John Elway retired, the pressure (and criticism) for Shanahan is beginning to mount.

Offense - New offensive coordinator Rick Dennison is also the offensive line coach, a rare double duty.  Then again, Shanahan still calls the offensive plays.  The Broncos new face of the franchise is quarterback Jay Cutler.  Cutler finished among the Top 10 quarterbacks in passing yards (more than 3400) and yards per attempt (7.5) last year, his first full season as the starter.  Cutler had a decent 20-14 touchdown-to-interception ratio despite losing 30 pounds over the course of the season due to undiagnosed (at the time) diabetes.  In the offseason, Cutler finally got medical treatment for his illness, which should leave him much stronger and fresher down the stretch in 2008.

Travis Henry seemed like a perfect fit for the Broncos offense when they signed him to a fat free agent deal prior to the 2007 season, but injuries and off-the-field issues limited his productivity.  He was cut following a no-show at mini-camp this spring, leaving Selmon Young, free agent acquisition Michael Pittman (Tampa Bay) and fifth round rookie Ryan Torain (Arizona State) to share carries this fall.  Fullbacks Cecil Sapp and Mike Bell will get their share of carries as well.  This is a franchise that has enjoyed tremendous success finding quality backs at the bottom of their depth chart, so despite their lack of a single #1 back, the Broncos should be able to run the football effectively.

Wide receiver Brandon Marshall enjoyed a breakout season in 2007, but his offseason was marred by legal troubles and a mysterious arm injury.  He’ll miss three games due to an NFL mandated suspension, but once he’s back on the field, he’s the Broncos most dangerous weapon in the passing game.  Denver spent big in free agency at receiver, bringing in Darrell Jackson (San Francisco), Keary Colbert (Carolina) and Sammy Parker (Kansas City) to compete for playing time with the returning Brandon Stokely and second round draft choice Eddie Royal (Virginia Tech).  Tight ends Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler are also a big part of the passing game.

For many years, the Broncos offensive line was an area of strength.  That no longer appears to be the case.  Center Tom Nalen and left guard Ben Hamilton are both trying to return to full strength after finishing last season on injured reserve.  Star left tackle Matt Lepsis retired, leaving big shoes to fill for their top draft choice Ryan Clady (Boise State).  Just about the only sure thing on the offensive line is steady, dependable right guard Montrae Holland.

Defense - New defensive coordinator Bob Slowik has plenty of experience in this role, having previously been a coordinator for the Bears, Browns and Packers.  He was the secondary coach here last year, so he’s quite familiar with the mediocre personnel that Denver has on this side of the football.  Slowik is the Broncos third defensive coordinator in the last three years.  The Broncos defense certainly wasn’t very good in 2007, ranked 28th in the NFL in points allowed and 30th against the run.

The Broncos defensive line has been the source of continual troubles over the last few years.  After spending numerous draft choices and big bucks in free agency on the DL over the past few seasons, Slowik is hoping that this year, the unit finally lives up to expectations.  Denver has some decent playmakers at defensive end, with Elvis Dumervil, John Engleberger.  They’ll be joined by Ebenezer Ekuban coming off a lost season following a torn ACL.  Tim Crowder and Jarvis Moss were first and second round picks, but it’s fourth rounder Marcus Thomas with the inside track as the starter.  They also picked up another former first rounder DeWayne Robertson from the Jets in the offseason, who never lived up to expectations in New York.  At a minimum, the depth here is excellent.  In a best case scenario, this line could be a top notch unit.

While the line looks better, the linebacking corps still has some major concerns heading into preseason.  DJ Williams finished second in the NFL in tackles last year, but he’s switching back to the outside after a season manning the middle.  The Broncos hope that free agent Boss Bailey (Detroit) can stay healthier here than he did in his injury-plagued tenure with the Lions, but he’s already missed time in training camp with a bad ankle.  Another free agent, Niko Koutouvides (Seattle) is expected to start, despite spending five years in a reserve role with the Seahawks.  Veterans Nate Webster and Jamie Winborn provide depth.

Cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Dre Bly remain a solid tandem, despite their advancing age.  Dominique Foxworth and Karl Paymah give them quality depth here as well.  But even with the free agent addition of Marlon McCree (San Diego), questions persist about the depth and talent level at both safety positions.

Four of the Broncos seven wins last year came on Jason Elam field goals.  He left in free agency, leaving Denver with training camp battles at both kicker and punter.  Clearly, the kicking game could be a real problem area.

Schedule - The Broncos have a very rough slate early in the season.  Their first four home games come against the Chargers, Saints, Bucs and Jaguars, all expected to be serious playoff contenders; and all of whom view their respective games at Invesco Field as road games they can win.  Denver also has a rough midseason scheduling stretch, playing only one home game between October 12th and November 23rd.  AFC West teams face the AFC East and NFC South out of division in 2008, and the Broncos extra two games come against the Jags and Browns.

For more NFL betting analysis by Teddy Covers, go to www.sportsmemo.com.







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Teddy Covers’ Handicapping Experience and Achievements: Ted Sevransky, better known as Teddy Covers, burst onto the Vegas handicapping scene in 1998 and immediately earned a reputation for covering the spread.  A University of Michigan graduate, Teddy Covers turned his propensity for numbers into the well respected sports service Whocovers.com in 1998 before joining Sportsmemo.com in 2003.  Since 1998 Teddy Covers has had numerous No. 1 finishes at The Sports Monitor in college and pro basketball as well as back-to-back No.1 rankings in arena football in 2005 and 2006 and finished No. 1 in the NFL in 2008.  Adding to a long list of accolades, Teddy Covers has also won both the Vegas Sportswire Invitational and the Alatex Football Contest, had a top-10 finish in the Hilton NFL Super Book Contest and was a semifinalist in the prestigious Stardust Invitational.  Teddy Covers, who regularly appeared... Continue Reading.

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