I was posting quite a bit in the Sportsmemo posting forum Monday night as I watched the Packers – Vikings game (in disgust). We took a close loss on both the side and the total in the 24-19 Green Bay victory, but I have no regrets about the handicapping of the contest. When you break down a game and it plays out with rushing and yardage fairly close to your anticipated forecast, you have to just count the loss as an unfortunate result and move on to another contest in search of similar opportunities to put the percentages in your favor. With a 10-3 halftime score and still just 10-6 midway through the third quarter, the Under was clearly the right play, but we lost our second Under of the season in two contests in large part due to game-changing punt return touchdowns.

As a proficient poker player, I know all too well about getting my money in good (high percentage) and taking a tough beat. The Vikings came out of the locker room at halftime and dominated the third quarter in yardage and time-of-possession while allowing the Packers to run just three (3) offensive plays! Yet, the Vikings failed in the red zone and were actually outscored 7-3 in the third quarter thanks to a 76-yard Packers' punt return touchdown. Minnesota’s loss was not a bad beat however, but rather just frustrating to see them not convert some key plays while giving up three big plays that were the difference in the contest. That will happen, and so will the dismissal of a head coach or offensive coordinator if the Vikings keep losing games and calling pass plays on 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 when they feature one of the league's top offensive lines and running backs and a less than competent quarterback.

I discuss below some of the rushing guidelines and match-ups to look for in handicapping the NFL. It should be no secret that if you have success running the football, you can wear down a defense and force them to stay on the field longer and ultimately be less productive in tackling, pressure and coverage. Likewise, if you can stop the run, the defense will force teams into longer and more third-down attempts and likely keep them from moving the chains consistently and create better field position. This will in turn get the defense off the field more often and keep them fresh while the offense takes over. If you can identify teams that will have success running the football and/or minimize an opponent’s ability to gain yards on the ground, then you’ll really put the edges in your favor to gain a pointspread victory. Monday’s contest proved that big plays are an essential part of winning football games in the NFL. Green Bay had a punt return for a touchdown, a 56-yard pass play that set up a touchdown, and a late 4th quarter run of 57 yards that set-up the game-winning touchdown. Three big plays, three touchdowns. But in watching the contest along with a closer examination of the box score shows a very telling statistic in determining ATS success in handicapping the NFL.

Over the past eight seasons, I have tracked rushing yards in NFL games, and use it as part of my handicapping and breakdown of a contest to determine who will have success running the football. When I can determine which team will out-rush their opponent by 30 or more yards, I have a 76% chance of getting an Against-the-Spread (ATS) victory. Why? Because over the past eight seasons, teams that out-rush their opponent by 30 or more yards in a contest have covered the pointspread 76% of the time. This has a sample size of over 1,300 contests, and has ranged from 72% to 80% success each and every year since 2000.

So back to the Monday night contest. Minnesota out-rushed Green Bay 187-139 with a 48-yard differential. The Vikings ran the ball for 5.7 yards-per-rush (ypr), had a 20-13 first down advantage, 355-317 total yards edge, just one (costly) turnover late, and Green Bay had 12 penalties for 118 yards; more than any team in week 1 action. So how did Minnesota lose outright, and not cover the 2.5 underdog price? You figure it out, but Green Bay made the big plays when they counted, and Minnesota did not. For week 1 NFL games, teams that out-rushed their opponent by 30 or more yards went 10-2 ATS (Tampa Bay 1/2 point ATS loser and the "Purple punks").  Last season, this 30-yard rushing edge produced a 133-33-7 ATS record (80%). That’s 133 wins and 33 losses with seven pushes ATS when a team out-rushed the opponent by 30 more yards.

To take this a step further and show you how unlikely, and unfortunate, Minnesota’s Straight-Up (SU) and Against-the-Spread (ATS) loss was Monday night, consider this. In the 2007 season, teams that ran the ball for 150 or more yards went 80-14 SU and 73-16-5 ATS (82%). Teams that rushed for 175 or more yards went 51-3 SU and 44-7-3 ATS (86%).  As you recall I'm sure, the Vikings accumulated 187 yards rushing against the Packers and lost SU.  That is very, very rare indeed.  Ironically, last season’s Minnesota home loss to Green Bay was a contest that the Vikings ran for 155 yards and lost SU as a 1-point underdog. The Vikings also had to work overtime to beat the Bears 34-31 to get the SU/ATS win as 4.5-point underdog last October despite an incredible 311 yards rushing.

So while the Vikings might be frustrated knowing they have a had the league's best run defense the past two seasons, and also possess a top-tier offensive line along with one of the top three running backs in the NFL, know that this handicapper and bettor is equally frustrated with recommending plays on this team that should be covering pointspreads at a high-percentage rate. Instead bettors have to endure a quarterback that can’t read coverage adequately or make a moderate amount of plays in the passing game.

For more NFL betting analysis by Fairway Jay, go to www.sportsmemo.com.