I have outlined the upcoming games that involve home teams that are rested and coming off a bye. In college football, this is a real benefit to the rested and prepared home team. The situational system is quite strong, with a base situation favoring the home team with better than 65% success Against-the-Spread (ATS). In conference action, this becomes even stronger and especially in week 8 or later of the season. If the home team is coming off a win and/or playing with revenge from last season, the sub-set situation provides even greater strength for the home team to deliver the ‘green’.

Last year's results were not quite as strong but still profitable beginning with games on November 1, or later. Home teams in the role of rested and ready off a bye went 15-10-2 ATS for 60% success. Teams with revenge and in redemption mode went 7-5 ATS. Those ATS records included games where the road team was also off a bye. In contests where only the home team was off a bye, those rested and ready homers went 11-8 ATS. The recent results with less pointspread success can likely be attributed to the linemakers adjustment for the situation, as the bookmaker knows the public and pros penchant for betting on these situations. So evaluate the match-ups, motivation, statistical profiles and determine if the value in price is worthy of a play. At the very least, consider betting the games early to be ahead of the curve and marketplace with anticipation of a line move.

This past Saturday, Florida fit the rested and ready profile coming off a bye and crushed Kentucky 63-5 in the ‘Swamp’. However, Arizona State and Tulane both failed miserably in good schedule spots, although Oregon was also coming off a bye and rolled to a big road win against the Sun Devils.

This is another piece to add to your handicapping arsenal, but know that you still must evaluate the motivation, match-ups, injuries, statistical profiles and betting line before you blindly bet on these rested homers. This season there is an unusually high number of contests with 48 late season situations where the home team is rested and ready off a bye.

An asterisk * indicates the opponent is also coming off a bye.

LHG = Last Home Game; LY= Last Year 

Date – Home Team – Opponent – Revenge – Last year’s Result/Notes

Nov. 1 – South Carolina – Tennessee – Yes  – USC lost in OT last year despite 501-317 yard edge

Nov. 1 – Stanford – Washington State * – Yes – SU allowed 561 yards to WSU in LY 33-17 WSU win

Nov. 1 – Syracuse – Louisville – No – SU (+37) won 38-35 in huge upset

Nov. 1 – UTEP – Rice – Yes – UTEP blew 20-point fourth qtr lead LY and lost 56-48

Nov. 1 – Western Michigan – Eastern Michigan – Yes – Six TOs and 199 yards for WMU in LY 19-2 loss

Nov. 1 – Western Kentucky – North Texas – Yes – UNT still winless. WKU missed late FG in 27-26 loss LY

Nov. 5 – Ball State – Northern Illinois – No – National TV spot (Weds.) for undefeated Ball State

Nov. 6 – Virginia Tech – Maryland * – No – Thursday night contest

Nov. 8 – Vanderbilt – Florida – Yes – Commodores have lost 17 in a row in series

Nov. 8 – UCLA – Oregon State – No – 5-straight wins for Bruins over Ducks by avg. of 21 ppg

Nov. 8 – SMU – Memphis * – Yes – Memphis won 3 OT thriller LY 55-52

Nov. 8 – Houston – Tulane – No – UH have won each of last 4 meetings by 21+ points

Nov. 8 – Florida Atlantic – North Texas – No – Owls off B2B road wins and shot to win out

Nov. 8 – Middle Tenn State – UL Monroe – No – 43-40 shootout win for MTSU last year

Nov. 12 – Kent State – Temple * – Yes – KSU was held to 124 total yards in LY 24-14 defeat

Nov. 13 – Miami, FL – Virginia Tech – Yes – Thursday. 44-14 Miami loss LY in Blacksburg

Nov. 15 – Mississippi – UL Monroe – No – UL Monroe in Sun Belt sandwich

Nov. 15 – South Florida – Rutgers – Yes – Rutgers knocked off unbeaten No. 2 Bulls LY 30-27

Nov. 15 – Idaho – Boise State – Yes – Vandals have lost 9-straight to Boise

Nov. 20 – Georgia Tech – Miami, FL – No – Tech has won 3-straight over Hurricanes

Nov. 21 – Bowling Green – Buffalo – No – Buffalo finishes season with 5 straight weekday games

Nov. 22 – LSU – Mississippi – No – LY Ole Miss outgained LSU 466-396 but lost 41-24

Nov. 22 – Oklahoma – Texas Tech * – Yes – QB Bradford injured in LY loss that cost OU title shot

Nov. 22 – Virginia – Clemson – No – Have not met since 2004. Last Home Game UVA

Nov. 22 – TCU – Air Force – Yes – Falcons stunned Frogs LY with 14 fourth qtr points

Nov. 22 – Rice – Marshall – Yes – Rice lost 34-21 LY and has rival Houston next week

Nov. 22 – Memphis – UCF – Yes – Tigers were down 49-0 early 3rd qtr LY

Nov. 22 – Hawaii – Idaho – No – Vandals surprised New Mexico State last week

Nov. 22 – Ohio – Akron – Yes – Ohio allowed season-high 48 points in defeat

Nov. 22 – Troy – La. Lafayette – No – Last three meetings have avg. 69 ppg

Nov. 22 – Arkansas State – Florida Atlantic – Yes – ASU has Sun Belt’s top defense heading into Nov

Nov. 22 – Florida Intl’ – UL Monroe – Yes – Nice improvement for FIU following 1-11 season LY

Nov. 27 – Texas – Texas A&M * – Yes – B2B losses to A&M. UT looking for redemption

Nov. 28 – Arizona State – UCLA – No – From Fiesta Bowl to potentially no Bowl for ASU

Nov. 28 – Nebraska – Colorado – Yes – LY NU loss cost them Bowl bid

Nov. 29 – Alabama – Auburn * – Yes – 6-straight Auburn wins in Iron Bowl

Nov. 29 – Georgia – Georgia Tech – No – UGA has won 7 in a row in Governor’s Cup series

Nov. 29 – Oklahoma State – Oklahoma – Yes – 5-straight losses by OSU to in-state conference rival

Nov. 29 – Missouri – Kansas * – No – Neutral field in KC. Mizzu ended KU’s perfect season LY

Nov. 29 – USC – Notre Dame – No – 6-straight wins for USC over Irish. LY 38-0

Nov. 29 – SMU – So. Mississippi – Yes – SMU has just 1 win over FCS team following 1-11 LY

Nov. 29 – Utah State – New Mexico St – No – USU upset NMSU LY 35-17 as +8 road ‘Dog

Dec. 3 – UL-Lafayette – MTSU – No – ULL had conference high 528 yards in LY 34-24 upset

Dec. 4 – Rutgers – Louisville * – Yes – RU blew 35-17 lead LY and lost in 41-38

Dec. 6 – Arizona – Arizona State – Yes – Territorial Cup won by ASU last 3 yrs. 20-17 LY

Dec. 6 – California – Washington * – Yes – Cal allowed 334 rushing in 37-23 UW upset LY

Dec. 6 – Connecticut – Pittsburgh – No – UConn was +5 in TOs in LY 34-14 loss to Pitt

Dec. 6 – Troy – Arkansas State – No – Troy could be undefeated in Sun Belt for LHG

For more college football betting analysis by Fairway Jay, go to www.sportsmemo.com.