The Average Joe doesn't bet on baseball much.  It's just not my specialty, and although I am a fan of the game, I don't keep up with it enough to really get an edge at the window.  And I just don't feel like wading through pitcher splits enough to bet sharply on any baseball action.

But football is a different story.  I love to bet on gridiron action, and the preseason has already afforded me a few victories, starting with the New York Giants last weekend.  Football games are decided by happenstance far less often than baseball games, and I just feel like I have a better grasp of what's going to happen, especially in the Southeastern Conference.

Those of you who have been reading this column regularly (all two of you) know that I've set down some hard and fast rules to govern my football betting this season so I can avoid many of the pitfalls that have killed me in the past.  Chief among them is to avoid betting on Ole Miss games, because I cannot be objective about them.  That rule was tested severely when several offshore books opened the Rebels as 5-point dogs at Memphis on Labor Day, but I managed to reel myself in.  It wouldn't be much of a rule if I broke it before the season even started, would it?  The line had moved to Memphis -2.5 now, and I'm still going to kick myself for not taking +5 when I could have.

I've never bet on season win totals before, but I see a couple of possibilities out there for this year.  Time will only tell if I have the patience enough for this type of bet that will go on and on all season long.  My guess is that I will be pissed that I have money tied up in such a long-term bet.

Tennessee Over
The Titans have given up touchdowns with comic ease in both of their preseason games.  The Falcons made it look like child's play last Friday.  I think Michael Vick was actually toying with the defense at one point, but Kyle VandenBosch did get one good lick on him.  And the Titans came back with a late score to win 24-21.

The guess here is that San Francisco, despite all of the unfortunate distractions they face after Thomas Herrian's sudden death, will march down the field and score on their first drive Friday too.  If that is the case, it will not be a good sign for Titans fans this year.  But it may solidify my suspicion that the Titans are going to be an Over team this year.  Good offense, bad defense.  Make sure to keep an eye on totals in Tennessee games early this year.

Sunburn
My wish for today - that my betting can get as hot as my shoulders and face feel right now.  I am currently under the influence of the worst sunburn ever.  I was at the lake last weekend, and true to form, I got too drunk while floating around in the sun with some buddies.  Before I knew what happened, it was mid-afternoon, I had missed lunch and my face and shoulders were cherry red and felt like they were on fire.  Now, a few days into what I'm afraid might be an extended ordeal, my shoulders feel like one giant scab and my face is threatening to peel off in one solid layer like Hannibal Lecter's when he broke out of jail in “The Silence of the Lambs.”  I am such a fool.  I'm going to start the football season looking like a cross between a leper and a burn unit patient.

Eli's elbow
One of the reasons I am hesitant about making season total wins bets is the injury factor involved.  See the New York Giants.  If Eli Manning's elbow injury turns out to be serious (at press time, Giants officials said it was just a sprain, but you never know about these things), anybody who took the over is going to be pissed.  The season hasn't even begun, and that bet would be in big trouble.  If you've got money riding on the possibility that Tim Couch might come in and get you some wins, you're in big trouble.  

Who's the worst?
Some time spent watching preseason games has left me with a question about who the worst offensive team in the NFL is.  The Dolphins, Lions and Ravens look like strong early contenders.  The Bears easily took home the prize last year, and with Rex Grossman on the sidelines injured again, they've got to be in the mix.  Miami has got quarterback problems but may be able to develop a solid running game once Ronnie Brown gets going.  The Lions have been a mess so far, averaging only eight points in two games and crossing the goal line only once.  Joey Harrington is feeling the heat in Detroit, especially with the stable of awesome receivers he's been blessed with.  And Baltimore is Baltimore.  Even in their Super Bowl year, it was usually the defense that got it done.  The race for worst offense is a hobby of mine.  I'm somewhat a connoisseur of bad football, and the worst teams are usually good for a couple of laughs per game.