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T.Covers: 16-3 (84%) NBA Run
T.Covers: 16-3 (84%) NBA Run
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AFC Betting News and Notes
11/04/09  12:00 AM

Teddy Covers

Bills - For all the injuries this defense has suffered, Buffalo continues to make big plays with their stop unit on a weekly basis. The secondary is loaded with playmakers as rookie safety Jairus Byrd leads the way. His seventh interception in eight games set up the Bills’ lone touchdown. No secondary makes plays without some sort of a pass rush; the other key element to this defense. Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsey were in Matt Schaub’s face early, but Schobel limped off the field and Houston’s passing attack started to click soon after.  These linebackers are just awful -- this team cannot stop the run, plain and simple. The Bills will let opposing teams dink and dunk their way down the field, but this defense really stiffened in the red zone, until they finally ran out of gas in the fourth quarter; almost an exact replica of their home loss to the Saints back in September. For the third straight year, Bobby April’s special teams rank among the best in the league, a key reason why their statistics look worse than their team actually is. The Bills are usually playing on a short field while their opponents are usually playing on a long field; hence the yardage disparity. Terrell Owens leads the NFL in dropped passes, unable to reel in a key third down pass in the end zone here. Then he failed to run a deep route, resulting in an interception. Bottom line -- Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t going to pass this team back into contention from a three touchdown deficit.

Browns - Coordinator Rob Ryan is actually making some headway with this defense. We saw pressure on the quarterback today; we saw diverse formations confusing Jay Cutler and we saw three-and-outs on the Bears’ first two possessions. But the fundamental lapses here were stunning -- allowing Cutler to scramble for first downs on third and long, for example; poor tackling, missed assignments -- the works. At least they stepped up in the red zone, forcing three consecutive first half field goals. Offensively, Cleveland isn’t showing any signs of improvement. Why have they seemingly given up on Brady Quinn after less than half a dozen career starts? It’s pretty clear by now that Derek Anderson is not the answer. Even a simple hand off to Jamal Lewis is an adventure. This team can’t even execute an extra point properly.

Colts - Indy looked very “fat and happy” to start the game -- two three and outs from the offense, allowing a long run up the gut for a touchdown on their first defensive possession. I read a report that Peyton Manning spent most of Friday’s practice chatting on the sidelines, as opposed to prepping for the 49ers. He overthrew a wide open Reggie Wayne for a sure touchdown, under threw a wide open Pierre Garcon, missed a wide open Dallas Clark completely and looked rather “human” throughout; clearly his worst game since Week 1. After converting 61% on third downs over the last three weeks, the Colts struggled here; just 3-of-10 in the first half. It really seemed as if Indy took their cue from their quarterback -- the lack of intensity here was palpable.

Jets - New York seems quite content to dink-and-dunk their way down the field. They’re throwing a steady diet of short, quick and most importantly safe passes to protect their young quarterback combined with a power rushing game. They tried a flea flicker; they tried a reverse, but it was mostly a very vanilla offensive game plan. Shonn Greene won’t replace Leon Washington’s big play ability in this offense, but he’s a nice complement to Thomas Jones in the running game. That being said, his fumble that was returned for a touchdown was a key turning point here. Mark Sanchez is wildly inconsistent. He was awful in the first half, consistently making very poor throws, even when not facing pressure; he nearly threw a hundred yard pick six with the Jets’ first red zone chance. Sanchez shows signs of progresses, and seems to have moments of clarity -- heck, he completed nine straight passes during crunch time in the fourth quarter. But with the game on the line, Sanchez looked very much like a rookie quarterback; the difference between winning and losing.

Jaguars - The Jags entered the game last in the league in sacks, and Vince Young had all day to throw. David Garrard continues to fumble on a weekly basis, not taking care of the football. For the third time in four years, Jack Del Rio’s team look flat and unprepared coming out of their bye week. Their lone post-bye victory during that span came against a 4-12 Chiefs team back in ’07. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter’s play calling is baffling. On the road, against a team that has struggled against the run all year, Maurice Jones-Drew didn’t get a single carry until there were less than six minutes before halftime; after a pair of three-and-outs and an interception. Of course, he took that first carry and took it 80 yards to the house, then did the same thing on his first carry of the second half.

Ravens - This is the best defensive performance that we’ve seen from the Ravens all year. They were pursuing en masse, hitting unbelievably hard and getting pressure on the quarterback on nearly every passing down. Be sure to check the status of a potential impact injury here with nose tackle Haloti Ngata limping off the field right before Denver’s only touchdown. And key defensive penalties continue to haunt this team -- the refs aren’t holding back on flags for Baltimore, and the Ravens’ lack of defensive discipline has already cost them more than once.

Texans - Whatever Houston does in the first half, bet ‘em the other way in the second half. If they trail early, back ‘em. If they take a lead into halftime, fade ‘em. That’s my only thought trying to handicap Houston.

Titans - They picked up punter Brett Kern off waivers this week, their third punter of the season. All Kern did was average more than 48 yards per kick while dropping three of his four punts inside the ten yard line. Vince Young is not being asked to do too much, and he’s not making the type of critical mistakes that have plagued him in years past. That being said, they treat him like a rookie with the play calling -- nothing but short patterns and simple reads. Then again, did they ask much more than that from Kerry Collins? And with the defense dominating the line of scrimmage like they did here, this is exactly the type of offense that produced 13 wins from the Titans in ‘08; getting their big plays out of the running game.

Teddy Covers provides betting analysis in every weekly installment of the Sportsmemo Newsletter. Included with Teddy's insight are written analysis and recommendations on every college and pro football game for the upcoming weekend. For information on how to purchase the Newsletter, click here.







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T.Covers: 16-3 (84%) NBA Run
Teddy Covers is absolutely DOMINATING the NBA market with a RED HOT 16-3 (84%) run that has banking +13.70 units of profit! Lock in his weekly NBA for just $99.
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