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NFC Betting News and Notes

11.25.2009     12:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

49ers - David Baas (left guard) limped off the field here. With Joe Staley already hurt, the left side of the offensive line is a real mess right now. Two of their best defenders -- CB Nate Clements and LB Takeo Spikes -- were both inactive again today. It showed, particularly in coverage -- this is not a stout pass defense these days. When you get outgained by more than 300 yards in the first half, earning only a single first down (Frank Gore’s long run), clearly this was not a strong effort. In the second half, when they spread out the offense, all of a sudden the passing game started to click. It was a similar story in their loss at Houston last month -- a bad first half, followed by an impressive down field passing attack when trailing by three touchdowns at the break. Bet on the 49ers in the second half after a miserable first half -- we’ve got a nice track record in this role under Mike Singletary.

Buccaneers - Earnest Graham is healthy again, and suddenly, the Bucs are able to run the football. The three headed rushing attack with Graham, Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams is a ‘must have’ with a rookie quarterback learning his way. Josh Freeman is taking a few down field shots, but he only completed ten passes longer than ten yards in his first three career starts. Still he’s pretty mobile for a 260-pound quarterback, capable of scrambling for first downs, a very difficult QB to bring down. This team has better chemistry than most bottom tier squads -- I’ll give Raheem Morris credit in that regard. Freeman’s teammates seem to respond to his leadership, even as a rookie. That being said, this rookie QB is pretty raw – there will be plenty of growing pains in the weeks and months to come.

Cardinals - For the first seven games of the season, Arizona ranked dead last in rushing yards. In the last three weeks, they’ve averaged more than 150 rushing yards per game, including 184 yards on 28 carries from Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower on the ground here. It’s surely worth noting that after throwing eleven interceptions in those first seven games, Kurt Warner hasn’t thrown a pick in the last three weeks while the running game forced the safeties to cheat towards the line of scrimmage, leaving his receivers in single coverage. The offensive line is really mashing opposing defenders, a dramatic improvement from their play in September and October. But when Kurt Warner went out and Matt Leinart came in, the Cardinals passing game was non-existent the rest of the way, shut out in the second half.

Lions - Don’t be fooled by the final score or the stats that show 422 yards and five passing touchdowns. Matthew Stafford is getting worse, not better. He’s developed happy feet, unable to stay stable in the pocket. Stafford continues to stare down receivers and throw into coverage. He’s got a pair of big ‘jump-all’ receivers in Calvin Johnson and rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew, yet he can’t seem to locate them in the red zone. There’s no question that he’s got the physical tools and ridiculous arm strength, capable of throwing 60 yard bombs off his back foot. And there’s no question that this kid has guts and the respect of his teammates after throwing the game winning TD pass following what might be a serious shoulder injury. But let’s not forget that he was facing the Browns defense – this is one rookie QB who still has a long way to go. The Lions defense is just awful, unable to stop the run or the pass, and vulnerable to big plays from anywhere on the field. Their blitzes don’t reach the passer and their cornerbacks can’t cover their own shadow down field.

Packers - I spent the whole first half writing about how impressed I was with Dom Capers defense. Even after all these years, a 30-something Charles Woodson continues to be a truly elite level defender. Nick Barnett is a star at linebacker, Atari Bigby is a big hitting safety, Clay Matthews, Al Harris, AJ Hawk, Aaron Kampman -- this is a loaded defense. Then in the second half, both Harris and Kampman were carted off the field with potential season ending knee injuries, a serious blow for a defense that had been playing at an extremely high level in recent weeks. This offense has enormous ‘quick strike’ potential. Aaron Rodgers is at his best when he can throw down field and let his receivers make plays to get the ball in the end zone. Not only does this offensive line allow sacks in bunches, they also lead the NFL in holding penalties; by far the weakest link on the entire team.

Rams - Leonard Little is having a resurgent season, Chris Long puts pressure on quarterbacks and rookie linebacker James Laurinaitis leads the team in tackles with a phenomenal 16 tackle effort here. Aside from those three players, there are no bright spots on this defense -- a balanced attack has little trouble moving the ball up and down the field against this stop unit. This crowd is silent, the conditions in the dome are always ideal for good offensive teams -- that’s bad news for this defense. The Rams might have the smallest home field edge in the entire league as a result this passing game continues to struggle. With Keenan Burton joining Laurent Robinson on the IR, the Rams have only one receiver on the roster who played for them in training camp: a banged up Donnie Avery. But there’s no quit in this team -- trailing by three scores at halftime, we saw the Rams rally back with a vengeance, although they fell short once again.

Redskins - Washington entered the game with the worst defense in the NFL in terms of takeaways. In the first quarter, Washington defenders had two passes hit them right in their hands and they couldn’t snare either one; the easiest interception chances that you’ll ever see. They did notch two takeaways for the game here, but had they been able to capitalize on other opportunities, they’d have won this game outright. This defense has been very good against the pass all year long, but without Albert Haynesworth in the lineup, they were quite susceptible to opposing ground games.  The attitude and energy here have been completely transformed -- one come-from-behind win against Denver last week and suddenly, the entire team seems revitalized. Will that renewed energy carry over to next week after another heartbreaking loss and another dose of impact injuries?

Saints - Even with the defensive injuries in the secondary, this pass rush is still dynamite. Charles Grant and Will Smith have been underachievers in recent years; not this season; two fierce pass rushing ends. Darren Sharper has to be on the short list for ‘defensive player of the year’, another veteran defender that has stepped up his game as part of a strong winning team. Every time I watch this offense, I’m amazed at how many different weapons Drew Brees has to work with -- no wonder this is the highest scoring offense in the league. Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush in the backfield. Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, Daniel Thomas and Jeremy Shockey catching passes downfield. In a sense, this level of skill position talent is virtually injury proof -- any two or three guys could go down from the eight listed above and New Orleans wouldn’t skip a beat.

Vikings - Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson garner all the headlines in Minnesota these days, but it’s this dynamic receiving corps that has impressed me the most in recent weeks. Sidney Rice is a star in the making, Bernard Berrian is right there with him and Percy Harvin is every bit the electric playmaker that he was with the Florida Gators last year. The trio came into the game with 105 catches, 1532 yards and eight TDs, with another 13 catches and 179 receiving yards here. Defenses can’t double team any of them, with the safeties needed for run support against Peterson. And their down field speed creates all kinds of underneath opportunities for Peterson, Chester Taylor and Visanthe Shiancoe, a second trio who caught 14 passes here. Good passing equals a good red zone offense -- this team scores touchdowns when they have the opportunity. This was a Super Bowl caliber performance.

For more NFL betting analysis by Teddy Covers, be sure to visit www.sportsmemo.com.








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Teddy Covers’ Handicapping Experience and Achievements: Ted Sevransky, better known as Teddy Covers, burst onto the Vegas handicapping scene in 1998 and immediately earned a reputation for covering the spread.  A University of Michigan graduate, Teddy Covers turned his propensity for numbers into the well respected sports service Whocovers.com in 1998 before joining Sportsmemo.com in 2003.  Since 1998 Teddy Covers has had numerous No. 1 finishes at The Sports Monitor in college and pro basketball as well as back-to-back No.1 rankings in arena football in 2005 and 2006 and finished No. 1 in the NFL in 2008.  Adding to a long list of accolades, Teddy Covers has also won both the Vegas Sportswire Invitational and the Alatex Football Contest, had a top-10 finish in the Hilton NFL Super Book Contest and was a semifinalist in the prestigious Stardust Invitational.  Teddy Covers, who regularly appeared... Continue Reading.

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