SportsMemo.com
Login:
Click to Use Secure Login
HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERS TWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

How to bet the NFL: Handicapping Red Zone offense

06.22.2010     11:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Part I of II

Last week, I took a first look at the upcoming NFL campaign in an effort to get an early gauge on the season win totals that have started to pop up at Vegas sportsbooks over the last few weeks. Today, we’ll pick up right where we left off. Here’s how I closed the last piece:

“Next time, we’ll take a look at some more stats that don’t tend to carry over from year to year – red zone efficiency, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency – in our effort to gauge which teams are under and overvalued at their current season win total numbers.”

Let’s start in the red zone, looking at teams that converted chances into touchdowns last year. The Arizona Cardinals led the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, converting at a better than 70% clip. Indianapolis, Minnesota and Miami all had conversion percentages of better than 60%.

Quality quarterback play is the key for red zone efficiency. The Colts will have Peyton Manning back. The Vikings are widely expected to have Brett Favre back. Miami has one of the most innovative offenses in the league, with coordinator Dan Henning calling the shots once again this year.

The team most likely to take a tumble down in the ‘red zone offensive efficiency’ category is Arizona, following Kurt Warner’s retirement. With a retooled offensive line and all kinds of question marks surrounding Warner’s expected replacement, Matt Leinart, look for the Cardinals red zone numbers to drop significantly in 2010, resulting in a significant decline in points scored.

On the other end of the spectrum lie the bottom feeders. Buffalo, St Louis, Seattle, Oakland and Cleveland were the five worst teams when it came to offensive red zone efficiency last year. No surprise, then, that the best of the bunch (Buffalo) finished at 6-10. When you can’t score touchdowns, you can’t win, plain and simple.

Again, we look at quarterback play – not the running game – as the key to red zone offense. Buffalo’s QB situation is a mess heading into training camp. St Louis is likely to start rookie QB Sam Bradford from Day 1. The Browns are counting on a bounce back season from 35 year old Jake Delhomme, who was positively awful last year in Carolina. Don’t count on big jumps from any of those three squads.

Oakland made a significant upgrade at QB, acquiring Jason Campbell from Washington in the offseason. Campbell had an 86.4 QB rating for the Redskins last year, in sharp contrast to JaMarcus Russell’s QB rating of 50 with the Raiders. Tom Cable’s squad should be better at scoring touchdowns when they have the chance in 2010.

It’s a similar story in Seattle. Matt Hasselbeck battled through an injury plagued season in ’09, but he’s reportedly healthy and ready to go for new head coach Pete Carroll in 2010. If Hasselbeck struggles again, the Seahawks finally have a decent backup in Charlie Whitehurst. Again, we should expect red zone improvement from this squad.

Part II tomorrow...








1
Amazing NFL Season O/U Wins
NFL Season Over/Under Wins
79-32 71% Winners since 2001
12-1 92% 20* Big Tickets
This year's Package $229
Churning out Football units
176-135 57% +32.5 units
NFL/CFB Results 2015-17
NFL/CFB Full Season $1299
NFLX/Reg Season/Playoffs/Bowls
A must Twitter follow
Keep up to date w/ Teddy
No one knows the industry better
@teddy_covers
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$29
Teddy split out on the opening night of NFL Preseason action. He has hit 67% in NFL-X since, making $$ for himself and his clients. Take advantage of this prime 'Watch & Win' opportunity on Sunday Night Football & cash in riding Teddy's Saints - Chargers winner! Get it now! This play must cash or his next report is FREE!

$229
It's here! Teddy Covers' famed NFL Season Over/Under Wins Report is an absolute must have for every bettor. Since 2001, Teddy has delivered a record of 79-32 71% including 12-1 92% with his 20* Big Ticket selection. The package includes two waves of selections as well as detailed written analysis. Lock in one of Sportsmemo's BEST packages for only $229.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
08.17 13:21
07.27 07:45
03.26 08:37
03.18 11:52
03.16 13:01

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     08.17.2017 1:18 PM
Ted Sevransky     08.10.2017 9:54 AM
Ted Sevransky     07.27.2017 10:03 AM
Ted Sevransky     07.19.2017 8:48 AM
Ted Sevransky     06.30.2017 10:37 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 20, 2017 03:50 PM.