Click to Use Secure Login

Teddy Covers discusses NFL Player Prop Bets

07.26.2010     12:15 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Las Vegas is not a pleasant place to be in July. The temperature routinely soars above 110 degrees – even the nighttime lows are often in the upper 80’s. Many Vegas veterans bolt out of town around this time of year, heading for cooler, more comfortable climates.  

But there is one strong advantage to sticking around in Vegas during the hot summer months –first crack at opening numbers. One such opportunity presented itself this past week, as the Venetian posted their 2010 NFL regular season player props.

We’ll see a handful of offshore books following suit in the next few weeks, but the Venetian posted the first true “virgin” numbers, sending wiseguys scurrying to get their bets down.

The Venetian posted Over/Under touchdown passes numbers for 17 quarterbacks. They posted Over/Under combined rushing and receiving touchdowns numbers for 24 running backs. And they posted Over/Under total reception numbers for 29 wide receivers and tight ends. There are 70 Over/Under props in all, giving bettors plenty of options to choose from.

Rather than simply list all the player prop numbers in today’s blog, I thought it would be more interesting to discuss the bets that I personally made. What follows is a list of my personal wagers, with a sentence or two explaining why I made each one.

One Final Note: Sharp bettors generally prefer to bet Unders more than Overs with these player props for one simple reason. Injuries can and do happen every year in the NFL; more than a handful of these players will stay Under their projected numbers due to injury concerns at some point during the season.

Aaron Rodgers Under 29.5 TDs - Rodgers was nearly perfect last year against the single weakest schedule in the NFL, setting a career high with 30 TD passes while throwing only seven interceptions. He’ll be hard-pressed to match that number against a much tougher schedule in 2010. This number has been bet down to 28.5.

Donovan McNabb Under 20.5 TDs - McNabb will turn 34 this November, and he’s only thrown 16, 18, 19, 22 and 23 TDs in the last five years. He’s learning a new offense with a new head coach and a new coordinator, with a weak offensive line in front of him and a relatively limited receiving corps to throw to.

Chad Henne Over 16.5 TDs - The addition of star WR Brandon Marshall won’t hurt. Henne threw 12 TDs last year in his first season as the starter, despite starting only 13 games.

LaDanian Tomlinson Under 7.5 TDs - Shonn Greene is the starter here. An aging, declining Tomlinson is not likely to get all that many goal line carries. This number has been bet down to 6.5.

Ray Rice Over 7.5 TDs - Rice had eight combined rushing and receiving TDs last year, and he’s clearly the feature back ahead of Willis McGahee in 2010. This number has been bet up to 9.

Beanie Wells Over 7.5 TDs - The transition from Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart equates nicely with the Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm’s run-first philosophy dating back to their days at Pittsburgh. Wells should get most of the goal line carries, after scoring seven rushing TDs last year in only 176 carries.

Larry Fitzgerald Under 88.5 Receptions - Again, I’m quite willing to bet that the Warner to Leinart transition won’t go without a hitch in Arizona.

Hines Ward Under 80.5 Receptions - Ward is 34 years old, and he won’t have his normal starting QB for at least the first four weeks of the season. He’s caught 81 passes or less in five of the last six years, despite staying relatively healthy during that span. This number got bet UP from 78.5.

Sidney Rice Under 82.5 Receptions - Brett Favre was truly exceptional last year – I’m not convinced that he can come close to those same numbers at 40 years old, coming off ankle surgery behind a declining offensive line in 2010. Rice caught 83 balls last year with everything going right for the Vikings.

NFL Season O/U Wins Report
Lifetime Record since 2001
Overall: 82-35-3 70%
20* Big Tickets: 12-2-2 86%
L6 Years: 28-8-2 78%
NFL Season O/U Wins Report
Only available through Sportsmemo
Includes detailed written analysis
of every selection. Great tool for 
the entire NFL season. First release
in July. Entire report only $229.
Teddy Covers MLB:
55% Winners 
since 6/1/18
MLB Weekly $99
Rest of Season+Playoffs $499

Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
Ian Cameron is the best Canadian Football League handicapper on the planet and he has proven it by dominating the CFL to the tune of more than +30 units of profit since 2012 including +20 units of profit over the last two CFL seasons combined. He is ready to deliver the profits in north of the border gridiron action unleashing his strongest Week 6 release with his 20* CFL Saturday Main Event. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $29 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFL play is free.

Totals have always been OTTO Sports' strength; 56% winners and over +75 units in all sports since 2015. And the sample size is massive with nearly 700 documented plays. For Saturday, OTTO checks in with a 10* Total of the Day in MLB. Hop on board for $20; a guaranteed cashed ticket or Sunday's top play is free.

Lay the points with this powerful & motivated Week 1 favorite and expect an easy, 'right side' cash. Teddy is releasing this 20* Big Ticket Report EARLY, because this line is only moving one way between now and kickoff -- it's going UP! Take advantage of this betting market opportunity right now & cash in with this Week 1 20* Big Ticket winner! This report must win or his next one is FREE!

It's here! Teddy Covers' famed NFL Season Over/Under Wins package is available for purchase! One of the most popular and success service packages in the industry, Teddy's report is an absolute MUST HAVE for every bettor. The result are sick: 82-35 70% 2001-18, 12-2 86% 20* Big Tickets. As always, you'll not only receive Teddy's selections but also detailed written analysis. The first wave of releases will be in July followed by potential additional plays after the third week of the NFL Preseason. Invest with Teddy today for only $229.

Extended Services
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
Post Subject
04.22 07:51
04.17 21:26
04.17 09:22
04.17 08:56
04.17 08:47

Current Blog
Ted Sevransky     07.06.2018 12:02 PM
Ted Sevransky     06.22.2018 10:18 AM
Ted Sevransky     06.12.2018 10:41 AM
Ted Sevransky     06.08.2018 10:10 AM
Ted Sevransky     06.01.2018 11:28 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers


Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at   Jul 21, 2018 08:32 AM.