Where have all the dogs gone?
Wow!  The favorites continue to dominate the NFL.  This past week we again saw the favorites roll to a huge and profitable record.  All totaled before Monday night’s game with Seattle and Philadelphia, the favorites were 11-4 against the spread.  The week previous, the favorites were 12-4 against the spread for a two-week run of 23-8.  Most incredible is the fact that road favorites are 11-1 during those two weeks.  

Here are the year to date numbers for all the NFL favorites:
Straight Up Record        144-46
Against the Spread Record    113-77    59% Winners

I found these numbers online for previous seasons for favorites against the spread records in the NFL

2004     117-125-7    48.3%        -20.5 units
2003     129-118-7    52.2%        -0.8 units
2002     108-137-4    44.1%        -42.7 units
2001    114-125-7    47.7%        -23.5 units
2000     114-125-3    47.7%        -23.5 units
1999    106-122-15    46.5%        -28.2 units
1998     119-106-13    52.9%        +2.4 units
1997     100-121-13    45.2%        -33.1 units

No season in the past eight years has ever seen these kind of results.  Will the next four weeks deliver the same type of results for the favorites or will we see a market correction with the dogs barking loudly?  

USC v. Texas
These two teams put on a pair of tremendous performances last Saturday in beating UCLA and Colorado by a combined 136-22.  In their games, they outgained the opposition 1,190 to 508 in total offense.  They outrushed the competition 723 to 256 yards.  USC did not punt the entire game and Texas only punted twice.  Which team is better?   I'm really not sure, but while USC may be a tad better on offense, Texas is a much better defensive team.  Big 12 teams have not had much recent success in these National Championship games or in the BCS overall.  The Big 12 teams are only 4-6 straight up in BCS games and have lost their last three appearances in the championship games by a combined score 113-47.  Texas and Vince Young specifically should give this game the best offensive showing from a Big 12 team in the history of the BCS.

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