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NFL Gambling Preview: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

11.27.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Buffalo at Kansas City
Sunday, 10 am PT
CRIS Opener:
Kansas City -5.5 O/U 42.5
CRIS Current: Kansas City -6.5 O/U 41.5
Recommendation: Buffalo

The Chiefs' four-game winning streak has been as much about the weakness of their opponents than any other factor.  Since their 1-5 start, KC has beaten the Steelers with Landry Jones making his first career start.  They faced the Lions in London when Detroit was in complete disarray on offense.  They knocked off the Broncos in what might be Peyton Manning’s last career start, a woeful four interception performance from the future Hall of Famer.  And last week, they knocked off a bottom tier, injury riddled Chargers squad in blowout fashion.

I’m not saying that Kansas City is a bad team, not by any stretch of the imagination.  But the Chiefs are a long, long way from being elite, and they’re an overvalued betting commodity at this stage of the campaign following this series of wins and covers.

The Chiefs offense is, most assuredly, a second tier unit.  They rank #22 in the NFL in red zone Read more

Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL teams starting to change their stripes

11.23.2015     11:41 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
It’s Week 12 already. Thanksgiving is upon us, with the holiday season right behind it.  All the NFL Bye weeks are in the rear view mirror now, with every team still having exactly six games remaining in the regular season.  We’re seeing numerous ‘morphs’ around the league; teams that have changed their stripes rather dramatically over the course of the last month. 

Some of those morphs are duly noted by the betting markets.  For example, the 3-7 Cowboys with a healthy Tony Romo are favored over the 10-0 Panthers on Thanksgiving Day, with the betting markets reacting to the Cowboys positive showing with Tony Romo back behind center this past Sunday.  The markets certainly aren’t sleeping on Dallas right now!

But what about the Lions, winners of two straight since their woeful 1-7 start?  Or the Falcons, now just 1-4 in their last five games; struggling on both sides of the football?  The Jets aren’t the same team now that they were a month ago, especially if the injuries to shutdown corner Darrelle Revis and Pro Bowl caliber center Nick Mangold don’t heal quickly.  Should we Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas

NFL Gambling Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons

11.20.2015     11:10 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Indianapolis at Atlanta
Sunday, 10 am PT
CRIS Opener:
Atlanta -6.5 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Atlanta -6 O/U 47
Recommendation: Atlanta

The Colts and Falcons went into their respective bye weeks with a very different state of mind.  Indy lost QB Andrew Luck, but they pulled an outright upset over the Broncos, keeping them in first place in the AFC South.  Atlanta, on the other hand, lost back-to-back games to the Bucs and 49ers by a combined four points. 

Since their 4-0 SU and ATS start to the campaign, Dan Quinn’s squad is just 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS, a dramatically overvalued commodity in recent weeks.  It’s surely worth noting that the Falcons were favored from between -3 to -8 in all five of those ATS losses; the exact same price range that we find Atlanta in again this week.  In fact, Atlanta’s only two wins by more than six points this year came back in Weeks 3 & 4, when they beat the Cowboys with Brandon Weeden and the Texans in Ryan Mallett’s last game as the starter.

Quinn is very familiar with 40 year old Colts backup QB Matt Read more

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Atlanta Falcons Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Updating NFL Regular Season O/U Wins

11.16.2015     08:05 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I write a lot about NFL Win Totals and NFL Divisional Odds throughout the summer months; my preferred methodology for discussing the upcoming season.  As we approach Thanksgiving, with Week 10 in the books and the final bye weeks coming up this weekend, it’s a good opportunity to take a look at how those wagers are faring heading into the homestretch of the 2015 campaign.

The very first NFL season win bets cashed this past weekend.  Dallas fell to 2-7, ensuring that the Cowboys cannot go Over their 9.5 game win total.  Carolina improved to 9-0, cashing their Over 8.5 win total from last summer.  Seattle fell to 4-5.  Even if the Seahawks win all of their remaining games, they can do no better than push their 11 game win total. 

It’s a similar story with Baltimore, sitting at 2-7 now, with a win total of 9 from last summer.  A 7-0 Ravens run to end the season would only produce a push for Over bettors. And while I write this column before Monday Night Football kicks off, the Bengals are in prime position to cash their Over 8.5 win total, 8-0 now and sitting as double digit favorites against the Texans.

A Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at New England Patriots

10.22.2015     08:19 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
NY Jets at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -9.5 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -8.5 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: New York

Surprising start by the Jets has made this a meaningful early season matchup with first place in the AFC East at stake. Each is already 1-0 against division foes and each ranks as the NFL’s #1 team in opposite categories. New York is tops in average points allowed (15.0 ppg) while the Patriots are #1 in average points scored (36.6 ppg). Adding to the positive differences between these teams is that fact that Football Outsiders website ranks New England as the #1 run blocking offensive line in the league and the Jets as the #1 pass protecting line. The contrasts make handicapping the fundamental aspects of this game extremely important but there are situational and historical angles that are relevant here too. Weather does not figure to be a factor in Foxboro this Sunday.    

The Jets stingy defense gained some more strength when DT Sheldon Richardson returned from his suspension last week. Now in his second week of Read more

Tags: NFL New York Jets New England Patriots Rob Veno

NFL Gambling Update: New England Patriots now favored to win AFC title

09.04.2015     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly

Update on New England's future odds courtesy of The Greek now that Tom Brady has been cleared to play.

Odds to Win Super Bowl 50: +550

Odds to Win AFC Championship: +285

Odds to Win AFC East: -285

Season Over/Under Wins: 10.5ov-145

NFL MVP: Tom Brady +2000

NFL Gambling Alert: Brady cleared to play; Pats -6.5/-7 vs. Steelers Week 1

09.03.2015     07:54 AM     View Original Blog

So this just happened. Tom Brady's suspension was officially lifted which means he'll suit up for Week 1's game Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots

NFL Handicapping: 2015-16 Schedule Partners

08.19.2015     02:50 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below is a schedule breakdown for the upcoming 2015-16 NFL season. Each team plays its division foes twice (six games). Each division is paired up with another division within the conference (ex. AFC North plays AFC West; AFC South plays AFC East; NFC East plays NFC South; NFC West plays NFC North; four games). Each team also plays two other games within the conference against teams that placed the same (ex. Buffalo placed second in the AFC East and plays fellow second place finishers, Cincinnati and Kansas City). Lastly, each division is paired with another division in the other conference (ex. AFC East plays the NFC East; four games). For the curious, here's a link to last year's breakdown so you can compare.

2015-15 NFL Schedule Partners
AFC East
AFC Partners (South)
NFC East
vs. Cincinnati, at Kansas City
vs. NY Giants, at Philadelphia, at Washington, vs. Dallas
vs. Baltimore, at San Diego
at Washington, at Philadelphia, vs. Dallas, vs. NY Giants
New England
vs. Pittsburgh, at Denver
at Dallas, vs. Washington, at NY Giants, vs. Philadelphia
NY Jets
vs. Cleveland, at Oakland
vs. Philadelphia, vs. Washington, at NY Giants, at Dallas
AFC West
AFC Partners (North)
NFC North
vs. New England, at Indianapolis
at Detroit, vs. Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, at Chicago
Kansas City
vs. Buffalo, at Houston
at Green Bay, vs. Chicago, at Minnesota, vs. Detroit
vs. NY Jets, at Tennessee
at Chicago, vs. Minnesota, at Detroit, vs. Green Bay
San Diego
vs. Miami, at Jacksonville
vs. Detroit, at Minnesota, at Green Bay, vs. Chicago
AFC South
AFC Partners (East)
NFC South
vs. Kansas City, at Cincinnati
at Carolina, vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta, vs. New Orleans
vs. Denver, at Pittsburgh
vs. New Orleans, at Carolina, at Atlanta, vs. Tampa Bay
vs. San Diego, at Baltimore
vs. Carolina, at Tampa Bay, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans
vs. Oakland, at Cleveland
at Tampa Bay, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans, vs. Carolina
AFC North
AFC Partners (West)
NFC West
vs. Jacksonville, at Miami
at San Francisco, at Arizona, vs. St. Louis, vs. Seattle
vs. Houston, at Buffalo
vs. Seattle, at Arizona, vs. St. Louis, at San Francisco
vs. Tennessee, at NY Jets
at St. Louis, vs. Arizona, vs. San Francisco, at Seattle
vs. Indianapolis, at New England
vs. San Francisco, vs. St. Louis, vs. Arizona, at Seattle
NFC East
NFC Partners (South)
AFC East
vs. Seattle, at Green Bay
vs. New England, at Miami, vs. NY Jets, at Buffalo
NY Giants
vs. San Francisco, at Minnesota
at Buffalo, vs. New England, vs. NY Jets, at Miami
vs. Arizona, at Detroit
at NY Jets, vs. Miami, at New England, vs. Buffalo
vs. St. Louis, at Chicago
vs. Miami, at NY Jets, at New England, vs. Buffalo
NFC West
NFC Partners (North)
AFC North
vs. New Orelans, at Phiadelphia
at Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore, at Cleveland, vs. Cincinnati
San Francisco
vs. Atlanta, at NY Giants
at Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore, at Cleveland, vs. Cincinnati
vs. Carolina, at Dallas
at Cincinnati, vs. Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland
St. Louis
vs. Tampa Bay, at Washington
vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Cleveland, at Baltimore, at Cincinnati
NFC South
NFC Partners (East)
AFC South
vs. Minnesota, at San Francisco
vs. Houston, at Tennessee, vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville
vs. Green Bay, at Seattle
at Jacksonville, vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, at Tennessee
New Orleans
vs. Detroit, at Arizona
at Indianapolis, vs. Tennessee, at Houston, vs. Jacksonsville
Tampa Bay
vs. Chicago, at St. Louis
vs. Tennessee, at Houston, vs. Jacksonville, at Indianapolis
NFC North
NFC Partners (West)
AFC West
vs. Washington, at Tampa Bay
vs. Oakland, at Kansas City, at San Diego, vs. Denver
vs. Philadelphia, at New Orleans
at San Diego, vs. Denver, at Kansas City, vs. Oakland
Green Bay
vs. Dallas, at Carolina
vs. Kansas City, vs. San Diego, at Denver, at Oakland
vs. NY Giants, at Atlanta
vs. San Diego, at Denver, vs. Kansas City, at Oakland

Tags: NFL

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part II

08.10.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2014 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple -- getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2015.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google ‘2015 NFL Strength of Schedule’ and you’ll find countless charts exactly like this one.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (.579)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (.563)
3. Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's new offensive coordinators

07.20.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Much of the offseason media hype comes from the head coaching changes in the NFL, but savvy bettors know that coordinator changes are every bit as important.  In my Wiseguy Report, I’m beginning a multi-week overview of the new coordinators around the league starting on offense, focusing on how the new coordinators experience and philosophies are likely to affect their new team’s level of production.  Next week, I’ll finish off the OC changes and begin examining the defensive coordinator changes.  Coordinators are listed in alphabetical order based on their new teams.

Marc Trestman, Baltimore Ravens - Trestman crashed and burned during his short head coaching tenure with the Chicago Bears, unable to turn Jay Cutler into an elite level quarterback.  But Trestman’s reputation as a creative play caller and top tier quarterback guru hasn’t been affected by his failures in the Windy City.  Each of Baltimore’s last two offensive coordinators was a former head coach who got another head coaching job – Jim Caldwell and Gary Kubiak; something Trestman covets.  And while Chicago didn’t Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Chicago Bears Denver Broncos Jacksonville Jaguars Oakland Raiders Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors show early opinions on Jets and 49ers

06.08.2015     08:36 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The NFL futures market is heating up as the calendar turns to June.  Two teams in particular have seen significant action.  Money has poured in against the San Francisco 49ers, the #1 bet against team of the offseason, without a shred of debate.  And money has been flowing in support of the New York Jets. I did debate using the Minnesota Vikings as my top wiseguy bet-on team in early trading, but the markets have moved towards the Jets with a vehemence that Minnesota just can’t match.   In this week's Wiseguy Report, I’ll dive into the 49ers and Jets to see why the sharps have such strong opinions about their upcoming campaigns.

There’s no mystery surrounding all the anti-49ers money that’s been pouring in since the very first win totals were posted at CG Gaming back in February.  The markets hated the loss of hard driving, overachieving head coach Jim Harbaugh and they certainly don’t care for his replacement Jim Tomsula; a largely anonymous Niners assistant with no previous NFL head coaching experience (he did coach the Rhein Fire on NFL Europe for one season back in 2006). 

Most big, early Read more

Tags: NFL New York Jets San Francisco 49ers Minnesota Vikings Teddy Covers Las Vegas


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