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California's initial proposal for legalized sports betting is pretty lame
04.26.2013 12:16 PM
Printer Friendly
California is eager to jump onboard with
legalized sports betting
as a recent bill met no opposition. Now everyone knows it needs to be cleared on a Federal level but for the sake of this blog, let's assume that takes place. The problem is the lameness of California's initial proposal. For starters you need to be 21 which is a reasonable request. Next, is the whole in person/no phone/no internet/straight cash/no credit deal. Oh, it gets better. You wouldn't be able to bet on college teams or events in the state. UCLA vs. USC? Nope. Betting the Holiday Bowl over the total? Sorry. We applaud these states for trying to get sports betting legalized even though "personal freedoms" comes a distant second to revenue it terms of motivation. But if you are going to do it, do it right, and recognize that it's 2013 and your profits under the proposed measures would be nickels and dimes compared to and online/mobile format. Perhaps it's just a case of the state wanting something as oppose to nothing. Fine. But don't expect to put a dent in the state's
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Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bet Recommendation: Joe Flacco pass attempts
01.29.2013 02:10 PM
ICC
Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC
Joe Flacco Pass Attempts
Recommendation: Over 33.5 (-150 @ 5Dimes)
My thinking behind this prop is fairly straightforward. I don’t see the Ravens being able to get their running game going against the staunch 49ers defensive front. Baltimore running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce were held in check by the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship with just 100 rushing yards. New England had the 9th ranked run defense in the NFL this season. San Francisco has the 4th ranked run defense allowing a paltry 94.2 yards per game. I don’t anticipate seeing a lot of success running the football for Baltimore once again this week and that will force Joe Flacco into passing situations early and often if the Ravens are going to be able to move the football and put points on the board.
Flacco’s pass attempts skyrocketed upward in Baltimore’s last two playoff games. He threw the football 34 times against Denver despite the Ravens run game working well that day and he threw the football 36 times against New England. Part of it was because the run game didn’t work against the Patriots but also because Flacco is playing
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Tags:
NFL
Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl XLVII
Ian Cameron
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Overlooked Super Bowl XLVII Handicapping Factor: Baltimore's Disruptive Defense
01.25.2013 07:04 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
We’re still early in the hype sequence for this year’s Super Bowl. But, already, it’s pretty clear that the main stories are going to be:
The Harbaugh brother angle
Colin Kaepernick and related Kaepernickia
Joe Flacco breaking through to “elite” status
Ray Lewis’s retirement
Something I think has been overlooked so far (and I'm including myself in this) is the role Baltimore’s defense has played in disrupting opposing quarterbacks so far in the playoffs. You regulars know that I developed a ridiculously simple stat for eyeballing how clean or sloppy an offense is playing…or, from the other perspective, how clean or sloppy an opposing defense allows an offense to play.
Sloppiness: 5 times turnovers…plus the number of incomplete passes
I’m pleased that so many have agreed with me that this is a great stat for painting the picture of a game, even if it is embarrassingly
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Super Bowl XLVII
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NFL Handicapping: Betting Market Acting Like Patriots Money ISN'T Coming
01.18.2013 07:42 AM
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There was a startling development Thursday in the legal betting markets regarding Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the favored New England Patriots and underdog Baltimore Ravens.
New England had been favored by 9 points. That line had fallen to a pretty solid 8.5 by midday. Then, it was a solid 8 by night time as I was writing this. That may not strike many of you as a big deal. After all, 9 and 8 aren’t common numbers. But, if you know the markets, it was actually a VERY big deal, because it may be suggesting in dramatic fashion that oddsmakers and sharps no longer expect a flood of New England money over the weekend.
For a second…as we walk through this…start with the premise that New England money IS coming. Squares (the betting public) generally wait until the weekend to bet. Squares typically bet favorites. Squares have established in the past that they like betting on marquee teams like the New England Patriots. Squares have also established that they like
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the AFC's Final Four
01.07.2013 08:02 AM
Teddy Covers
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With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.
It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21 Unders compared to 19 Overs. But over the last two years, it’s 7-1 to the Over. In the two years before that, it was 6-2 to the Under. In the two years prior to that, Overs and Unders
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Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
New England Patriots
Teddy Covers
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NFL Betting Trends: Strength of schedule and pointspread success in the playoffs
01.02.2013 06:29 AM
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One of the best blog posts in Sportsmemo history is making its annual appearance – Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs.
The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) are a remarkable 29-11 straight up and 29-11 against the spread (73% winners) regardless of price and location.
Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS differential of 10 or more went 18-3 SU, 18-3 ATS (86% winners). Taking it step further, teams with a better SOS that are underdogs went 11-7 SU, 14-4 ATS. Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 7-3 ATS and 8-2 ATS.
NFL Playoffs Stength of Schedule Betting Trend 2002-present
Year
Away (SOS)
Home (SOS)
Score
SOS SU
SOS ATS
2011
Cincinnati (23) +3
Houston (32)
HOU 31, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
2011
Detroit (4) +10.5
New Orleans (31)
NO 45, DET 28
Loss
Loss
2011
NY Giants (6) -3
Atlanta (21)
NYG 24, ATL 2
Win
Win
2011
Denver (8) +8
Pittsburgh (26)
DEN 29, PIT 23
Win
Win
2010
New Orleans (25)
Seattle (28) +14.5
SEA 41, NO 36
Loss
Loss
2010
NY Jets (8) +1
Indianapolis (21)
NYJ 17, IND 16
Win
Win
2010
Baltimore (12) -3
Kansas City (32)
BAL 30, KC 7
Win
Win
2010
Green Bay (9) +1
Philadelphia (16)
GB 21, PHI 16
Win
Win
2009
Philadelphia (13) +3.5
Dallas (14)
DAL 34, PHI 13
Loss
Loss
2009
Green Bay (32)
Arizona (28) +2.5
ARI 51, GB 45
Win
Win
2009
NY Jets (4) +2.5
Cincinnati (17)
NYJ 24, CIN 14
Win
Win
2009
Baltimore (10)
New England (6) -3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
2008
Baltimore (3) -3.5
Miami (26)
BAL 27, MIA 9
Win
Win
2008
Indianapolis (10) -1.5
San Diego (17)
SD 23, IND 17
Loss
Loss
2008
Philadelphia (5) -3
Minnesota (14)
PHI 26, MIN 14
Win
Win
2008
Atlanta (24)
Arizona (16) -1.5
ARI 30, ATL 24
Win
Win
2007
NY Giants (2) +3
Tampa Bay (24)
NYG 24, TB 14
Win
Win
2007
Washington (1) +3
Seattle (35)
SEA 35, WAS 14
Loss
Loss
2007
Tennessee (18)
San Diego (6) -10.5
SD 17, TEN 6
Win
Win
2007
Jacksonville (13) -2.5
Pittsburgh (27)
JAX 31, PIT 29
Win
Loss
2006
NY Jets (8)
New England (4) -9.5
NE 37, NYJ 16
Win
Win
2006
Kansas City (17)
Indianapolis (5) -7
IND 23, KC 8
Win
Win
2006
NY Giants (9) +6.5
Philadelphia (21)
PHI 23, NYG 20
Loss
Win
2006
Dallas (23) +2.5
Seattle (30)
SEA 21, DAL 20
Loss
Win
2005
Carolina (24)
NY Giants (17) -3
CAR 23, NYG 0
Loss
Loss
2005
Washington (3) +1
Tampa Bay (32)
WAS 17, TB 10
Win
Win
2005
Pittsburgh (4) -3
Cincinnati (13)
PIT 31, CIN 17
Win
Win
2005
Jacksonville (25)
New England (8) -7.5
NE 28, JAX 3
Win
Win
2004
Denver (14)
Indianapolis (11) -10
IND 49, DEN 24
Win
Win
2004
NY Jets (4) +7
San Diego (18)
NYJ 20, SD 17
Win
Win
2004
St. Louis (22) +3.5
Seattle (29)
STL 27, SEA 20
Win
Win
2004
Minnesota (21) +6.5
Green Bay (26)
MIN 31, GB 17
Win
Win
2003
Dallas (18)
Carolina (13) -3
CAR 29, DAL 10
Win
Win
2003
Seattle (27)
Green Bay (23) -7.5
GB 33, SEA 27
Win
Loss
2003
Denver (19)
Indianapolis (4) -3
IND 41, DEN 10
Win
Win
2003
Tennessee (6) -1
Baltimore (28)
TEN 20, BAL 17
Win
Win
2002
Cleveland (17) +8
Pittsburgh (20)
PIT 36, CLE 33
Loss
Win
2002
Indianapolis (28)
NY Jets (5) -6
NYJ 41, IND 0
Win
Win
2002
NY Giants (30)
San Francisco (11) -3
SF 39, NYG 38
Win
Loss
2002
Atlanta (6) +7
Green Bay (27)
ATL 27, GB 7
Win
Win
Totals
29-11 SU
29-11 ATS
In 2002 the NFL expanded to its current format of 32 teams; eight divisions with four teams each. There wasn’t much upheaval as the leagued added the Houston Texans to the AFC and Seattle switched to the NFC. Two new divisions were created as the league kept the integrity of the established divisional rivalries pretty much intact. The playoff format was modified so that four division winners and two wild cards from each conference would advance to the
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Looking at the contenders in the AFC
12.03.2012 09:49 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
I spent the last few Sunday’s concentrating on some pretty bad football teams. It’s December now; time to shift my focus towards the other end of the spectrum. This week, I focused on four AFC Playoff contenders. Which teams have the potential to do some damage when January rolls around and which are frauds? Read on to find out!
Indianapolis
- Indy is certainly not a Super Bowl contender. But given that they were seven point underdogs at 4-7 Detroit, the betting markets aren’t even calling the Colts a playoff caliber team. Even with starting cornerback Vontae Davis back in the lineup following a four game injury absence, the pass defense spent all afternoon getting torched. Where's the pass rush? Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were non-factors here.
The offensive line got dominated by Detroit’s front four for most of the afternoon. Andrew Luck was beaten up, taking one big hit after the next. Coming into the game with four fumbles and 10 INTs in five previous road games, Luck's emphasis was on ball security here. That emphasis didn’t work. He hit seven different receivers in the first half, but also threw a pair
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Dissecting the NFL's bottom feeders
11.19.2012 12:26 PM
Teddy Covers
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Over the last few weeks, I’ve been watching the contenders from both conferences closely. This week, I turned my focus towards the bottom feeders; teams that some folks have been calling ‘dead’ in recent weeks.
With six games remaining on the slate for every NFL team, there’s still plenty of time to make money fading the teams that have quit on their coach and their season. And there’s most definitely an opportunity to make money with last place teams IF they play with passion and precision down the stretch.
Here’s my take on four teams that entered Sunday’s games in last place in their respective divisions.
Kansas City
- We're 11 weeks into the season, and this sorry Chiefs offense hasn't improved one iota. There's talent to work with – Jamal Charles and Peyton Hillis make a decent 'thunder and lightning' duo running the football. Dwayne Bowe, Tony Moeaki, Dexter McCluster and Steve Breaston have all enjoyed past success as playmaking pass catchers, although Bowe got hurt early and wasn’t a factor here.
But the same two issues that have plagued KC all year haven't gone
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: AFC Contenders and Pretenders
11.12.2012 11:47 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
November is the time in the NFL where we separate contenders from pretenders. Last week, I focused on the NFC; this week, I’ll turn to the AFC. Unfortunately, the Colts and Steelers didn’t play on Sunday, and the Texans’ Sunday Night game was played in weather conditions that affected the game (and the game plan) significantly. Who among the rest can challenge for AFC supremacy? Read on to find out.
Denver Broncos
- Another slow start for a West Coast team traveling East; certainly not unusual. Slow starts have been a consistent problem for Denver all year. We saw them fall behind by three scores when they faced Atlanta, Houston and San Diego – three of the tougher foes they've faced. But slow starts are about the only fault I can find with this team right now.
We already know how good Denver’s offense can be, and they score touchdowns : 22 TDs in 32 red zone possessions. The Broncos have an elite quarterback, a strong running game and playmaking WR's - they can trade points with anybody. This team's postseason future rests on the strength (or weakness) of their stop unit; a unit that has stepped up at times and
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Pre- and Post-Bye Week Teams
10.29.2012 11:45 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I wrote about the three strongest prevailing angles for the 2012 NFL season. Let me update the numbers from a week ago.
NFC Underdogs – any underdog in any game – have gone 37-12-2 ATS this season. But that angle has now suffered back-to-back losing weeks, looking like it’s come and gone as the market has adjusted to reflect the NFC’s dominance – just 3-5 ATS in Week 8 after a 2-3-1 ATS mark in Week 7.
Teams heading into the bye week are now 1-14 ATS, discounting the games where one pre-bye team faced off against another. The Jets were the only team to fall into this category on Sunday, with the 49ers pending on Monday Night. This trend is still very live; 0-3 ATS over the past two weeks.
And teams coming out of the bye are on a 9-5 ATS streak; again discounting the games where one post-bye team faced another. But that trend seems to e flat lining: 2-2 ATS in Week 7 followed by another 2-2 ATS performance in Week 8.
What’s really going on with these pre-bye or post-bye squads? For the second straight week, I focused my attention on five teams in one of these two roles.
Miami
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