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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors ready for Super Bowl XLIX

01.26.2015     10:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s Super Bowl time again.  I use this line every year because it’s true – this IS the moral equivalent of Christmas Day for many sports bettors.  Yet, much like last year, many of the professional full time bettors that I know are rather disappointed with the proposition betting opportunities for Super Bowl XLIX – there’s simply not much low hanging fruit.  The biggest and best sportsbooks (market leaders both here in Vegas and offshore) have learned from previous mistakes.  Weak numbers do NOT abound in 2015.

Let me start with the game itself.  The Super Bowl itself has been an underdog bettor’s paradise in recent years.   The Seahawks were underdogs at kickoff last year in their blowout win over the Broncos. The Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2013, as the underdog, beating the favored 49ers.  The Giants won the year before as an underdog; knocking off the Patriots.  In 2010, the Saints won straight up as a dog over Peyton Manning and the Colts.  In 2009, the Cardinals covered the spread in a tight loss to the Steelers.  In 2008, the Gia nts beat the favored 18-0 Patriots Read more



Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLIX Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs

12.29.2014     02:26 PM     Printer Friendly
Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs

The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) are a remarkable 36-12 straight up and 35-12-1 against the spread (74% winners) regardless of price and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS differential of 10 or more went 23-3 SU, 22-3-1 ATS (88% winners). Taking it step further, teams with a better SOS that are underdogs went 14-8 SU, 17-5 ATS. Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 9-3 ATS and 10-2 ATS. This is not a perfect science when it comes to grading plays. For example, last year, the Colts opened -2.5 but closed +2. The 49ers also closed -3.5 at a number of shops which would have resulted in an ATS loss. That said, with 12 years of results, this is one of the strongest publically known NFL trends available.

NFL Wildcard Playoff Strength of Schedule Betting Trend 2002-13
Year
Away (SOS)
Home (SOS)
Score
SOS SU
SOS ATS
2013
Kansas City (26)
Indianapolis (11) +2
IND 45, KC 44
Win
Win
2013
New Orleans (8) +3
Philadelphia (28)
NO 26, PHI 24
Win
Win
2013
San Diego (19) +6
Cincinnati (27)
SD 27, CIN 10
Win
Win
2013
San Francisco (7) -3
Green Bay (30)
SF 23, GB 20
Win
Push
 
 
 
 
 
 
2012
Cincinnati (31)
Houston (27) -4.5
HOU 19, CIN 13
Win
Win
2012
Minnesota (6) +8
Green Bay (8)
GB 24, MIN 10
Loss
Loss
2012
Indianapolis (32)
Baltimore (18) -6.5
BAL 24, IND 9
Win
Win
2012
Seattle (5) -3
Washington (15)
SEA 24, WAS 14
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2011
Cincinnati (23) +3
Houston (32)
HOU 31, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
2011
Detroit (4) +10.5
New Orleans (31)
NO 45, DET 28
Loss
Loss
2011
NY Giants (6) -3
Atlanta (21)
NYG 24, ATL 2
Win
Win
2011
Denver (8) +8
Pittsburgh (26)
DEN 29, PIT 23
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2010
New Orleans (25)
Seattle (28) +14.5
SEA 41, NO 36
Loss
Loss
2010
NY Jets (8) +1
Indianapolis (21)
NYJ 17, IND 16
Win
Win
2010
Baltimore (12) -3
Kansas City (32)
BAL 30, KC 7
Win
Win
2010
Green Bay (9) +1
Philadelphia (16)
GB 21, PHI 16
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2009
Philadelphia (13) +3.5
Dallas (14)
DAL 34, PHI 13
Loss
Loss
2009
Green Bay (32)
Arizona (28) +2.5
ARI 51, GB 45
Win
Win
2009
NY Jets (4) +2.5
Cincinnati (17)
NYJ 24, CIN 14
Win
Win
2009
Baltimore (10)
New England (6) -3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2008
Baltimore (3) -3.5
Miami (26)
BAL 27, MIA 9
Win
Win
2008
Indianapolis (10) -1.5
San Diego (17)
SD 23, IND 17
Loss
Loss
2008
Philadelphia (5) -3
Minnesota (14)
PHI 26, MIN 14
Win
Win
2008
Atlanta (24)
Arizona (16) -1.5
ARI 30, ATL 24
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2007
NY Giants (2) +3
Tampa Bay (24)
NYG 24, TB 14
Win
Win
2007
Washington (1) +3
Seattle (35)
SEA 35, WAS 14
Loss
Loss
2007
Tennessee (18)
San Diego (6) -10.5
SD 17, TEN 6
Win
Win
2007
Jacksonville (13) -2.5
Pittsburgh (27)
JAX 31, PIT 29
Win
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2006
NY Jets (8)
New England (4) -9.5
NE 37, NYJ 16
Win
Win
2006
Kansas City (17)
Indianapolis (5) -7
IND 23, KC 8
Win
Win
2006
NY Giants (9) +6.5
Philadelphia (21)
PHI 23, NYG 20
Loss
Win
2006
Dallas (23) +2.5
Seattle (30)
SEA 21, DAL 20
Loss
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005
Carolina (24)
NY Giants (17) -3
CAR 23, NYG 0
Loss
Loss
2005
Washington (3) +1
Tampa Bay (32)
WAS 17, TB 10
Win
Win
2005
Pittsburgh (4) -3
Cincinnati (13)
PIT 31, CIN 17
Win
Win
2005
Jacksonville (25)
New England (8) -7.5
NE 28, JAX 3
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2004
Denver (14)
Indianapolis (11) -10
IND 49, DEN 24
Win
Win
2004
NY Jets (4) +7
San Diego (18)
NYJ 20, SD 17
Win
Win
2004
St. Louis (22) +3.5
Seattle (29)
STL 27, SEA 20
Win
Win
2004
Minnesota (21) +6.5
Green Bay (26)
MIN 31, GB 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003
Dallas (18)
Carolina (13) -3
CAR 29, DAL 10
Win
Win
2003
Seattle (27)
Green Bay (23) -7.5
GB 33, SEA 27
Win
Loss
2003
Denver (19)
Indianapolis (4) -3
IND 41, DEN 10
Win
Win
2003
Tennessee (6) -1
Baltimore (28)
TEN 20, BAL 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2002
Cleveland (17) +8
Pittsburgh (20)
PIT 36, CLE 33
Loss
Win
2002
Indianapolis (28)
NY Jets (5) -6
NYJ 41, IND 0
Win
Win
2002
NY Giants (30)
San Francisco (11) -3
SF 39, NYG 38
Win
Loss
2002
Atlanta (6) +7
Green Bay (27)
ATL 27, GB 7
Win
Win
Results
 
 
 
36-12 SU
35-12-1 ATS


In 2002 the NFL expanded to its current format of 32 teams; eight divisions with four teams each. There wasn’t much upheaval as the league added the Houston Texans to the AFC and Seattle switched to the NFC. Two new Read more



Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Playoff Contenders

12.22.2014     10:09 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 16 of the NFL season is in the books and four teams have emerged as clear co-favorites to win the Super Bowl.  Green Bay and Seattle are at the top of the power ratings spectrum in the NFC while Denver and New England look poised for a rematch from last year in the AFC Championship Game.

Last week in this space, I poked holes in the NFC contenders, explaining why every other live team in the playoff race had at least one fundamental flaw primed to doom their chances in January.  This week, I’m going to point the magnifying glass towards the seven fringe contenders in the AFC.  Can any of them knock off the Patriots in Foxboro or the Broncos in Denver when January rolls around?  Read on to find out. 

The Houston Texans remain one of five teams still fighting for the final two playoff spots in the AFC after knocking off the Ravens on Sunday.  But if the Texans do manage to sneak into the postseason with a Wild Card berth, I’m not expecting them to do any damage. 

Houston’s defense ranks among the league’s elite, as we clearly saw once again this past weekend.  But the Texans average Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC Playoff Contenders

12.15.2014     08:12 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books and four teams have emerged as clear co-favorites to win the Super Bowl.  Green Bay and Seattle are at the top of the power ratings spectrum in the NFC while Denver and New England look poised for a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game.

In my Wiseguy Report over the next two weeks, I’m going to poke holes in every other team that is still alive in the playoff chase.  Can any of the fringe contenders knock off the favorites when January rolls around?  Read on to find out.  This week I’ll focus on the second tier contenders in the NFC, and next week, I’ll shift my focus to the AFC.

The Dallas Cowboys have looked good on national TV repeatedly this year.  They are a perfect 7-0 SU on the road, including impressive wins at Seattle and Philly.  But the Cowboys have at least one fundamental flaw – their defense isn’t much better than it was last year when the Cowboys ranked at or near the bottom of nearly every statistical category. 

In 2013, the Cowboys stop unit was ridiculed nationally, allowing 6.1 yards per play (ranked #30 out of 32 Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC News and Notes

11.10.2014     08:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Cleveland Browns went into Thursday Night’s matchup at Cincinnati with a winning record, but without much respect from the betting markets.  Cleveland had spent the last month feasting on the weak, facing off against the likes of the Titans, Jaguars, Raiders and Bucs in their previous five games; arguably the four worst teams in the NFL.  The Browns didn’t blow out any of those squads; locked in tight, competitive games each time except their only loss during that span – a blowout defeat at Jacksonville.

Without pro bowl center Alex Mack in the lineup over their previous three games, the Browns offense became completely one-dimensional; a team that couldn’t run the football one iota.  Against Tampa’s shoddy rush D, it was 26 carries for 50 yards.  The week before, it was 25 rushes for 39 yards.  The week before that, it was 30 rushes for 69 yards.  That’s less than two yards per carry against weaklings.

So what did the Browns do in their step-up game on Thursday Night at Cincinnati?  Simple – they dominated on both sides of the football, start to finish, rushing for 170 yards and Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Gambling Preview: Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos

10.01.2014     02:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arizona at Denver
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Denver -8.5 O/U 49.5
CRIS Current: Denver -7 O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -7.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

The defending AFC champion Broncos have yet to cover a pointspread in three tries this season; one of only three teams that are winless ATS (the Jets at 0-3-1 ATS and the Jaguars at 0-4 ATS are the other two).  But all three of the Broncos ATS defeats deserve at least a little bit of an asterisk attached to them.

In Week 1, Denver was in complete control throughout against the Colts, but Indy made a late rally thanks to a recovered onside kick to lose by only seven points as 7.5 point underdogs.  The following week, the Broncos were again comfortably in control against the Chiefs but a serious of penalties and ‘third and long’ conversions allowed KC to hang around.  The Broncos offense only had two drives Read more



Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals Denver Broncos Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

09.22.2014     07:51 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re three weeks into the new NFL season and I’ve already got some pointspread and totals streakers to write about.  Three teams are 3-0 ATS, four more have yet to cover a pointspread. Four teams are 3-0 to the Over; five more are 3-0 to the Under. Who are these teams and why are they trending early? Most importantly, can we expect them to continue to trend in the same direction moving forward? Read on to find out.

I’ll focus here on the pointspread streakers, saving the totals streakers for a thorough look next week. That being said, I will list the early season totals streakers here, so you don’t have to go through the trouble of looking them up. 3-0 to the Over: Browns, Jaguars, Colts and Eagles. 3-0 to the Under: Bengals, Cardinals, Bills, Vikings and Titans.

The NFL is a parity filled league, and pointspreads can adjust rather dramatically based on a single early season performance. A big Week 1 or Week 2 victory, therefore, makes it more difficult to cover the spread the following week. Only three teams have managed to avoid an ATS defeat through the first three weeks of the season. All three of those squads were less than Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Football Betting Podcast 8-21-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Paul Stone and Erin Rynning

08.21.2014     11:53 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Paul Stone and Erin Rynning. Paul broke down the SEC East while Erin talked AFC South and AFC West.

Today's segments
Full Show

Paul Stone - SEC East Preview

Erin Rynning - NFL Preview (AFC South, AFC West)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: College Football SEC Paul Stone Erin Rynning




Football Betting Podcast 8-20-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning

08.20.2014     12:15 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning. Ian broke down CFL Week 9 while Erin talked AFC East and AFC North.

Today's segments
Full Show

Ian Cameron - CFL Week 9

Erin Rynning - NFL Preview (AFC East, AFC North)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: CFL NFL Ian Cameron Erin Rynning




NFL Division-by-Division Betting Podcasts with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers

08.18.2014     09:20 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
For those who have missed any of our ongoing NFL Division-by-Division breakdowns on the Sportsmemo Podcast with Teddy Covers, below are links to all of the past shows.

AFC South

AFC North

AFC West

AFC East

NFC South

NFC North

NFC West

NFC East





Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Apr 21, 2015 01:20 AM.