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NFL Handicapping: 2015-16 Schedule Partners

08.19.2015     02:50 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below is a schedule breakdown for the upcoming 2015-16 NFL season. Each team plays its division foes twice (six games). Each division is paired up with another division within the conference (ex. AFC North plays AFC West; AFC South plays AFC East; NFC East plays NFC South; NFC West plays NFC North; four games). Each team also plays two other games within the conference against teams that placed the same (ex. Buffalo placed second in the AFC East and plays fellow second place finishers, Cincinnati and Kansas City). Lastly, each division is paired with another division in the other conference (ex. AFC East plays the NFC East; four games). For the curious, here's a link to last year's breakdown so you can compare.

2015-15 NFL Schedule Partners
AFC East
AFC Partners (South)
NFC East
Buffalo
vs. Cincinnati, at Kansas City
vs. NY Giants, at Philadelphia, at Washington, vs. Dallas
Miami
vs. Baltimore, at San Diego
at Washington, at Philadelphia, vs. Dallas, vs. NY Giants
New England
vs. Pittsburgh, at Denver
at Dallas, vs. Washington, at NY Giants, vs. Philadelphia
NY Jets
vs. Cleveland, at Oakland
vs. Philadelphia, vs. Washington, at NY Giants, at Dallas
AFC West
AFC Partners (North)
NFC North
Denver
vs. New England, at Indianapolis
at Detroit, vs. Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, at Chicago
Kansas City
vs. Buffalo, at Houston
at Green Bay, vs. Chicago, at Minnesota, vs. Detroit
Oakland
vs. NY Jets, at Tennessee
at Chicago, vs. Minnesota, at Detroit, vs. Green Bay
San Diego
vs. Miami, at Jacksonville
vs. Detroit, at Minnesota, at Green Bay, vs. Chicago
AFC South
AFC Partners (East)
NFC South
Houston
vs. Kansas City, at Cincinnati
at Carolina, vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta, vs. New Orleans
Indianapolis
vs. Denver, at Pittsburgh
vs. New Orleans, at Carolina, at Atlanta, vs. Tampa Bay
Jacksonville
vs. San Diego, at Baltimore
vs. Carolina, at Tampa Bay, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans
Tennessee
vs. Oakland, at Cleveland
at Tampa Bay, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans, vs. Carolina
AFC North
AFC Partners (West)
NFC West
Baltimore
vs. Jacksonville, at Miami
at San Francisco, at Arizona, vs. St. Louis, vs. Seattle
Cincinnati
vs. Houston, at Buffalo
vs. Seattle, at Arizona, vs. St. Louis, at San Francisco
Cleveland
vs. Tennessee, at NY Jets
at St. Louis, vs. Arizona, vs. San Francisco, at Seattle
Pittsburgh
vs. Indianapolis, at New England
vs. San Francisco, vs. St. Louis, vs. Arizona, at Seattle
NFC East
NFC Partners (South)
AFC East
Dallas
vs. Seattle, at Green Bay
vs. New England, at Miami, vs. NY Jets, at Buffalo
NY Giants
vs. San Francisco, at Minnesota
at Buffalo, vs. New England, vs. NY Jets, at Miami
Philadelphia
vs. Arizona, at Detroit
at NY Jets, vs. Miami, at New England, vs. Buffalo
Washington
vs. St. Louis, at Chicago
vs. Miami, at NY Jets, at New England, vs. Buffalo
NFC West
NFC Partners (North)
AFC North
Arizona
vs. New Orelans, at Phiadelphia
at Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore, at Cleveland, vs. Cincinnati
San Francisco
vs. Atlanta, at NY Giants
at Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore, at Cleveland, vs. Cincinnati
Seattle
vs. Carolina, at Dallas
at Cincinnati, vs. Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland
St. Louis
vs. Tampa Bay, at Washington
vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Cleveland, at Baltimore, at Cincinnati
NFC South
NFC Partners (East)
AFC South
Atlanta
vs. Minnesota, at San Francisco
vs. Houston, at Tennessee, vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville
Carolina
vs. Green Bay, at Seattle
at Jacksonville, vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, at Tennessee
New Orleans
vs. Detroit, at Arizona
at Indianapolis, vs. Tennessee, at Houston, vs. Jacksonsville
Tampa Bay
vs. Chicago, at St. Louis
vs. Tennessee, at Houston, vs. Jacksonville, at Indianapolis
NFC North
NFC Partners (West)
AFC West
Chicago
vs. Washington, at Tampa Bay
vs. Oakland, at Kansas City, at San Diego, vs. Denver
Detroit
vs. Philadelphia, at New Orleans
at San Diego, vs. Denver, at Kansas City, vs. Oakland
Green Bay
vs. Dallas, at Carolina
vs. Kansas City, vs. San Diego, at Denver, at Oakland
Minnesota
vs. NY Giants, at Atlanta
vs. San Diego, at Denver, vs. Kansas City, at Oakland





Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part II

08.10.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2014 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple -- getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2015.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google ‘2015 NFL Strength of Schedule’ and you’ll find countless charts exactly like this one.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (.579)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (.563)
3. Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's new offensive coordinators

07.20.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Much of the offseason media hype comes from the head coaching changes in the NFL, but savvy bettors know that coordinator changes are every bit as important.  In my Wiseguy Report, I’m beginning a multi-week overview of the new coordinators around the league starting on offense, focusing on how the new coordinators experience and philosophies are likely to affect their new team’s level of production.  Next week, I’ll finish off the OC changes and begin examining the defensive coordinator changes.  Coordinators are listed in alphabetical order based on their new teams.

Marc Trestman, Baltimore Ravens - Trestman crashed and burned during his short head coaching tenure with the Chicago Bears, unable to turn Jay Cutler into an elite level quarterback.  But Trestman’s reputation as a creative play caller and top tier quarterback guru hasn’t been affected by his failures in the Windy City.  Each of Baltimore’s last two offensive coordinators was a former head coach who got another head coaching job – Jim Caldwell and Gary Kubiak; something Trestman covets.  And while Chicago didn’t Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Chicago Bears Denver Broncos Jacksonville Jaguars Oakland Raiders Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors show early opinions on Jets and 49ers

06.08.2015     08:36 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL futures market is heating up as the calendar turns to June.  Two teams in particular have seen significant action.  Money has poured in against the San Francisco 49ers, the #1 bet against team of the offseason, without a shred of debate.  And money has been flowing in support of the New York Jets. I did debate using the Minnesota Vikings as my top wiseguy bet-on team in early trading, but the markets have moved towards the Jets with a vehemence that Minnesota just can’t match.   In this week's Wiseguy Report, I’ll dive into the 49ers and Jets to see why the sharps have such strong opinions about their upcoming campaigns.

There’s no mystery surrounding all the anti-49ers money that’s been pouring in since the very first win totals were posted at CG Gaming back in February.  The markets hated the loss of hard driving, overachieving head coach Jim Harbaugh and they certainly don’t care for his replacement Jim Tomsula; a largely anonymous Niners assistant with no previous NFL head coaching experience (he did coach the Rhein Fire on NFL Europe for one season back in 2006). 

Most big, early Read more



Tags: NFL New York Jets San Francisco 49ers Minnesota Vikings Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors ready for Super Bowl XLIX

01.26.2015     10:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s Super Bowl time again.  I use this line every year because it’s true – this IS the moral equivalent of Christmas Day for many sports bettors.  Yet, much like last year, many of the professional full time bettors that I know are rather disappointed with the proposition betting opportunities for Super Bowl XLIX – there’s simply not much low hanging fruit.  The biggest and best sportsbooks (market leaders both here in Vegas and offshore) have learned from previous mistakes.  Weak numbers do NOT abound in 2015.

Let me start with the game itself.  The Super Bowl itself has been an underdog bettor’s paradise in recent years.   The Seahawks were underdogs at kickoff last year in their blowout win over the Broncos. The Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2013, as the underdog, beating the favored 49ers.  The Giants won the year before as an underdog; knocking off the Patriots.  In 2010, the Saints won straight up as a dog over Peyton Manning and the Colts.  In 2009, the Cardinals covered the spread in a tight loss to the Steelers.  In 2008, the Gia nts beat the favored 18-0 Patriots Read more



Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLIX Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs

12.29.2014     02:26 PM     Printer Friendly
Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs

The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) are a remarkable 36-12 straight up and 35-12-1 against the spread (74% winners) regardless of price and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS differential of 10 or more went 23-3 SU, 22-3-1 ATS (88% winners). Taking it step further, teams with a better SOS that are underdogs went 14-8 SU, 17-5 ATS. Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 9-3 ATS and 10-2 ATS. This is not a perfect science when it comes to grading plays. For example, last year, the Colts opened -2.5 but closed +2. The 49ers also closed -3.5 at a number of shops which would have resulted in an ATS loss. That said, with 12 years of results, this is one of the strongest publically known NFL trends available.

NFL Wildcard Playoff Strength of Schedule Betting Trend 2002-13
Year
Away (SOS)
Home (SOS)
Score
SOS SU
SOS ATS
2013
Kansas City (26)
Indianapolis (11) +2
IND 45, KC 44
Win
Win
2013
New Orleans (8) +3
Philadelphia (28)
NO 26, PHI 24
Win
Win
2013
San Diego (19) +6
Cincinnati (27)
SD 27, CIN 10
Win
Win
2013
San Francisco (7) -3
Green Bay (30)
SF 23, GB 20
Win
Push
 
 
 
 
 
 
2012
Cincinnati (31)
Houston (27) -4.5
HOU 19, CIN 13
Win
Win
2012
Minnesota (6) +8
Green Bay (8)
GB 24, MIN 10
Loss
Loss
2012
Indianapolis (32)
Baltimore (18) -6.5
BAL 24, IND 9
Win
Win
2012
Seattle (5) -3
Washington (15)
SEA 24, WAS 14
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2011
Cincinnati (23) +3
Houston (32)
HOU 31, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
2011
Detroit (4) +10.5
New Orleans (31)
NO 45, DET 28
Loss
Loss
2011
NY Giants (6) -3
Atlanta (21)
NYG 24, ATL 2
Win
Win
2011
Denver (8) +8
Pittsburgh (26)
DEN 29, PIT 23
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2010
New Orleans (25)
Seattle (28) +14.5
SEA 41, NO 36
Loss
Loss
2010
NY Jets (8) +1
Indianapolis (21)
NYJ 17, IND 16
Win
Win
2010
Baltimore (12) -3
Kansas City (32)
BAL 30, KC 7
Win
Win
2010
Green Bay (9) +1
Philadelphia (16)
GB 21, PHI 16
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2009
Philadelphia (13) +3.5
Dallas (14)
DAL 34, PHI 13
Loss
Loss
2009
Green Bay (32)
Arizona (28) +2.5
ARI 51, GB 45
Win
Win
2009
NY Jets (4) +2.5
Cincinnati (17)
NYJ 24, CIN 14
Win
Win
2009
Baltimore (10)
New England (6) -3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2008
Baltimore (3) -3.5
Miami (26)
BAL 27, MIA 9
Win
Win
2008
Indianapolis (10) -1.5
San Diego (17)
SD 23, IND 17
Loss
Loss
2008
Philadelphia (5) -3
Minnesota (14)
PHI 26, MIN 14
Win
Win
2008
Atlanta (24)
Arizona (16) -1.5
ARI 30, ATL 24
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2007
NY Giants (2) +3
Tampa Bay (24)
NYG 24, TB 14
Win
Win
2007
Washington (1) +3
Seattle (35)
SEA 35, WAS 14
Loss
Loss
2007
Tennessee (18)
San Diego (6) -10.5
SD 17, TEN 6
Win
Win
2007
Jacksonville (13) -2.5
Pittsburgh (27)
JAX 31, PIT 29
Win
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2006
NY Jets (8)
New England (4) -9.5
NE 37, NYJ 16
Win
Win
2006
Kansas City (17)
Indianapolis (5) -7
IND 23, KC 8
Win
Win
2006
NY Giants (9) +6.5
Philadelphia (21)
PHI 23, NYG 20
Loss
Win
2006
Dallas (23) +2.5
Seattle (30)
SEA 21, DAL 20
Loss
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005
Carolina (24)
NY Giants (17) -3
CAR 23, NYG 0
Loss
Loss
2005
Washington (3) +1
Tampa Bay (32)
WAS 17, TB 10
Win
Win
2005
Pittsburgh (4) -3
Cincinnati (13)
PIT 31, CIN 17
Win
Win
2005
Jacksonville (25)
New England (8) -7.5
NE 28, JAX 3
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2004
Denver (14)
Indianapolis (11) -10
IND 49, DEN 24
Win
Win
2004
NY Jets (4) +7
San Diego (18)
NYJ 20, SD 17
Win
Win
2004
St. Louis (22) +3.5
Seattle (29)
STL 27, SEA 20
Win
Win
2004
Minnesota (21) +6.5
Green Bay (26)
MIN 31, GB 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003
Dallas (18)
Carolina (13) -3
CAR 29, DAL 10
Win
Win
2003
Seattle (27)
Green Bay (23) -7.5
GB 33, SEA 27
Win
Loss
2003
Denver (19)
Indianapolis (4) -3
IND 41, DEN 10
Win
Win
2003
Tennessee (6) -1
Baltimore (28)
TEN 20, BAL 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2002
Cleveland (17) +8
Pittsburgh (20)
PIT 36, CLE 33
Loss
Win
2002
Indianapolis (28)
NY Jets (5) -6
NYJ 41, IND 0
Win
Win
2002
NY Giants (30)
San Francisco (11) -3
SF 39, NYG 38
Win
Loss
2002
Atlanta (6) +7
Green Bay (27)
ATL 27, GB 7
Win
Win
Results
 
 
 
36-12 SU
35-12-1 ATS


In 2002 the NFL expanded to its current format of 32 teams; eight divisions with four teams each. There wasn’t much upheaval as the league added the Houston Texans to the AFC and Seattle switched to the NFC. Two new Read more



Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Playoff Contenders

12.22.2014     10:09 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 16 of the NFL season is in the books and four teams have emerged as clear co-favorites to win the Super Bowl.  Green Bay and Seattle are at the top of the power ratings spectrum in the NFC while Denver and New England look poised for a rematch from last year in the AFC Championship Game.

Last week in this space, I poked holes in the NFC contenders, explaining why every other live team in the playoff race had at least one fundamental flaw primed to doom their chances in January.  This week, I’m going to point the magnifying glass towards the seven fringe contenders in the AFC.  Can any of them knock off the Patriots in Foxboro or the Broncos in Denver when January rolls around?  Read on to find out. 

The Houston Texans remain one of five teams still fighting for the final two playoff spots in the AFC after knocking off the Ravens on Sunday.  But if the Texans do manage to sneak into the postseason with a Wild Card berth, I’m not expecting them to do any damage. 

Houston’s defense ranks among the league’s elite, as we clearly saw once again this past weekend.  But the Texans average Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC Playoff Contenders

12.15.2014     08:12 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books and four teams have emerged as clear co-favorites to win the Super Bowl.  Green Bay and Seattle are at the top of the power ratings spectrum in the NFC while Denver and New England look poised for a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game.

In my Wiseguy Report over the next two weeks, I’m going to poke holes in every other team that is still alive in the playoff chase.  Can any of the fringe contenders knock off the favorites when January rolls around?  Read on to find out.  This week I’ll focus on the second tier contenders in the NFC, and next week, I’ll shift my focus to the AFC.

The Dallas Cowboys have looked good on national TV repeatedly this year.  They are a perfect 7-0 SU on the road, including impressive wins at Seattle and Philly.  But the Cowboys have at least one fundamental flaw – their defense isn’t much better than it was last year when the Cowboys ranked at or near the bottom of nearly every statistical category. 

In 2013, the Cowboys stop unit was ridiculed nationally, allowing 6.1 yards per play (ranked #30 out of 32 Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC News and Notes

11.10.2014     08:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Cleveland Browns went into Thursday Night’s matchup at Cincinnati with a winning record, but without much respect from the betting markets.  Cleveland had spent the last month feasting on the weak, facing off against the likes of the Titans, Jaguars, Raiders and Bucs in their previous five games; arguably the four worst teams in the NFL.  The Browns didn’t blow out any of those squads; locked in tight, competitive games each time except their only loss during that span – a blowout defeat at Jacksonville.

Without pro bowl center Alex Mack in the lineup over their previous three games, the Browns offense became completely one-dimensional; a team that couldn’t run the football one iota.  Against Tampa’s shoddy rush D, it was 26 carries for 50 yards.  The week before, it was 25 rushes for 39 yards.  The week before that, it was 30 rushes for 69 yards.  That’s less than two yards per carry against weaklings.

So what did the Browns do in their step-up game on Thursday Night at Cincinnati?  Simple – they dominated on both sides of the football, start to finish, rushing for 170 yards and Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Gambling Preview: Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos

10.01.2014     02:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arizona at Denver
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Denver -8.5 O/U 49.5
CRIS Current: Denver -7 O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -7.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

The defending AFC champion Broncos have yet to cover a pointspread in three tries this season; one of only three teams that are winless ATS (the Jets at 0-3-1 ATS and the Jaguars at 0-4 ATS are the other two).  But all three of the Broncos ATS defeats deserve at least a little bit of an asterisk attached to them.

In Week 1, Denver was in complete control throughout against the Colts, but Indy made a late rally thanks to a recovered onside kick to lose by only seven points as 7.5 point underdogs.  The following week, the Broncos were again comfortably in control against the Chiefs but a serious of penalties and ‘third and long’ conversions allowed KC to hang around.  The Broncos offense only had two drives Read more



Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals Denver Broncos Teddy Covers



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