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March

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Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs

01.02.2017     09:24 AM     Printer Friendly
The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) are a remarkable 40-16 straight up and 40-15-1 against the spread (73% winners) regardless of price and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS differential of 10 or more went 23-4 SU, 22-4-1 ATS (85% winners). Taking it step further, teams with a better SOS that are underdogs went 16-12 SU, 21-6 ATS. Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS. This is not a perfect science when it comes to grading plays. For example, last year the Steelers were -2/-2.5 and won 18-16. That said, with 14 years of results, this is one of the strongest publically known NFL trends available.

NFL Wildcard Playoff Strength of Schedule Betting Trend 2002-15
Year
Away (SOS)
Home (SOS)
Score
SOS SU
SOS ATS
2015
Kansas City (14) -3
Houston (26)
KC 30, HOU 0
Win
Win
2015
Pittsburgh (10)
Cincinnati (15) +2.5
PIT 18, CIN 16
Win
Loss
2015
Seattle (13)
Minnesota (12) +5.5
SEA 10, MIN 9
Loss
Win
2015
Green Bay (9) +1
Washington (24)
GB 35, WAS 18
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2014
Arizona (10)
Carolina (22) -5.5
CAR 27, ARI 16
Loss
Loss
2014
Baltimore (29) +3
Pittsburgh (30)
BAL 30, PIT 17
Win
Win
2014
Detroit (23) +6
Dallas (31)
DAL 24, DET 20
Loss
Win
2014
Cincinnati (18)
Indianapolis (24) -3.5
IND 26, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2013
Kansas City (26)
Indianapolis (11) +2
IND 45, KC 44
Win
Win
2013
New Orleans (8) +3
Philadelphia (28)
NO 26, PHI 24
Win
Win
2013
San Diego (19) +6
Cincinnati (27)
SD 27, CIN 10
Win
Win
2013
San Francisco (7) -3
Green Bay (30)
SF 23, GB 20
Win
Push
 
 
 
 
 
 
2012
Cincinnati (31)
Houston (27) -4.5
HOU 19, CIN 13
Win
Win
2012
Minnesota (6) +8
Green Bay (8)
GB 24, MIN 10
Loss
Loss
2012
Indianapolis (32)
Baltimore (18) -6.5
BAL 24, IND 9
Win
Win
2012
Seattle (5) -3
Washington (15)
SEA 24, WAS 14
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2011
Cincinnati (23) +3
Houston (32)
HOU 31, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
2011
Detroit (4) +10.5
New Orleans (31)
NO 45, DET 28
Loss
Loss
2011
NY Giants (6) -3
Atlanta (21)
NYG 24, ATL 2
Win
Win
2011
Denver (8) +8
Pittsburgh (26)
DEN 29, PIT 23
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2010
New Orleans (25)
Seattle (28) +14.5
SEA 41, NO 36
Loss
Loss
2010
NY Jets (8) +1
Indianapolis (21)
NYJ 17, IND 16
Win
Win
2010
Baltimore (12) -3
Kansas City (32)
BAL 30, KC 7
Win
Win
2010
Green Bay (9) +1
Philadelphia (16)
GB 21, PHI 16
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2009
Philadelphia (13) +3.5
Dallas (14)
DAL 34, PHI 13
Loss
Loss
2009
Green Bay (32)
Arizona (28) +2.5
ARI 51, GB 45
Win
Win
2009
NY Jets (4) +2.5
Cincinnati (17)
NYJ 24, CIN 14
Win
Win
2009
Baltimore (10)
New England (6) -3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2008
Baltimore (3) -3.5
Miami (26)
BAL 27, MIA 9
Win
Win
2008
Indianapolis (10) -1.5
San Diego (17)
SD 23, IND 17
Loss
Loss
2008
Philadelphia (5) -3
Minnesota (14)
PHI 26, MIN 14
Win
Win
2008
Atlanta (24)
Arizona (16) -1.5
ARI 30, ATL 24
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2007
NY Giants (2) +3
Tampa Bay (24)
NYG 24, TB 14
Win
Win
2007
Washington (1) +3
Seattle (35)
SEA 35, WAS 14
Loss
Loss
2007
Tennessee (18)
San Diego (6) -10.5
SD 17, TEN 6
Win
Win
2007
Jacksonville (13) -2.5
Pittsburgh (27)
JAX 31, PIT 29
Win
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2006
NY Jets (8)
New England (4) -9.5
NE 37, NYJ 16
Win
Win
2006
Kansas City (17)
Indianapolis (5) -7
IND 23, KC 8
Win
Win
2006
NY Giants (9) +6.5
Philadelphia (21)
PHI 23, NYG 20
Loss
Win
2006
Dallas (23) +2.5
Seattle (30)
SEA 21, DAL 20
Loss
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005
Carolina (24)
NY Giants (17) -3
CAR 23, NYG 0
Loss
Loss
2005
Washington (3) +1
Tampa Bay (32)
WAS 17, TB 10
Win
Win
2005
Pittsburgh (4) -3
Cincinnati (13)
PIT 31, CIN 17
Win
Win
2005
Jacksonville (25)
New England (8) -7.5
NE 28, JAX 3
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2004
Denver (14)
Indianapolis (11) -10
IND 49, DEN 24
Win
Win
2004
NY Jets (4) +7
San Diego (18)
NYJ 20, SD 17
Win
Win
2004
St. Louis (22) +3.5
Seattle (29)
STL 27, SEA 20
Win
Win
2004
Minnesota (21) +6.5
Green Bay (26)
MIN 31, GB 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003
Dallas (18)
Carolina (13) -3
CAR 29, DAL 10
Win
Win
2003
Seattle (27)
Green Bay (23) -7.5
GB 33, SEA 27
Win
Loss
2003
Denver (19)
Indianapolis (4) -3
IND 41, DEN 10
Win
Win
2003
Tennessee (6) -1
Baltimore (28)
TEN 20, BAL 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2002
Cleveland (17) +8
Pittsburgh (20)
PIT 36, CLE 33
Loss
Win
2002
Indianapolis (28)
NY Jets (5) -6
NYJ 41, IND 0
Win
Win
2002
NY Giants (30)
San Francisco (11) -3
SF 39, NYG 38
Win
Loss
2002
Atlanta (6) +7
Green Bay (27)
ATL 27, GB 7
Win
Win
Results
 
 
 
40-16 SU
40-15-1 ATS
 

In 2002 the NFL expanded to its current format of 32 teams; eight divisions with four teams each. There wasn’t much upheaval as the league added the Houston Texans to the AFC and Seattle switched to the NFC. Two new divisions were created as the league kept the integrity of the established divisional rivalries pretty much intact. The playoff format was modified so that four division winners and two Read more



Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens

12.16.2016     12:35 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia at Baltimore
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Baltimore -6 O/U 42.5
CRIS Current: Baltimore -6 O/U 40
Recommendation: Baltimore

I’m getting a lousy vibe from the slumping Eagles, just 2-8 SU and ATS since their hot 3-0 start back in September.  Philly’s offense has been limited all year, and that hasn’t changed.  Rookie Carson Wentz has hit a wall, now that opposing coordinators have plenty of film to study.  Top RB Ryan Matthews is banged up; change of pace back and special teams maestro Darren Sproles is out, top WR Jordan Matthews is banged up and their offensive line is struggling in every way.

Defensively, the Eagles have gone downhill over the past month and a half.  They’ve notched only eight sacks in the last seven games, and have permitted at least two TD passes in eight of their last ten overall.  The Eagles scored another defensive touchdown last week against the Redskins, but they still lost and failed to cover the spread; a major ‘red flag’ moving forward.

And then there are the rumbles in the Read more



Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling News: Tampa Bay surges, Cincinnati continues to regress

11.21.2016     11:43 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
After beating Atlanta outright as a road underdog in Week 1, Tampa Bay spent the better part of the next two months playing unpredictable football. They were outclassed by Arizona, Denver, and in the second meeting against the Falcons and headed into Week 10 as a home underdog to bottom feeder Chicago. Lose that game and drop to 3-6 with tough upcoming games at Kansas City and home vs. Seattle. Instead, the Bucs cruised past the Bears and then stole one last week with a 19-17 win over the Chiefs. I don’t think it is a coincidence that this mini two-game winning streak coincides with the return of running back Doug Martin. Martin is an excellent multipurpose back that can block and catch the ball out of the backfield. Tampa is now 3-0 SU and ATS with Martin on the field and his presence has provided Jameis Winston with more options both vertically and underneath. Winston had some early season struggles, particularly with bad decision making, but over his last three games he flashes a 7-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Tampa Bay’s time of possession numbers have skyrocketed with the Bucs possessing the ball for 37 minutes against Chicago and 35 minutes against Kansas City. Again, this Read more



Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cincinnati Bengals Ian Cameron




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Reevaluating NFL teams during the preseason

08.29.2016     09:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you read my NFL previews over the summer months (eight different Wiseguy Reports, one for each division), you know that I had some pretty strong opinions about a good handful of teams prior to the start of training camp and preseason.  In fact, 15 of the 32 NFL teams were on my initial short list for potential season win total bets, just shy of half the league.  These were all teams that, on paper, looked better or worse than initial oddsmaker projections.

After watching three weeks of NFL Preseason action, most of my initial opinions have been reinforced, and the betting markets have agreed with the vast majority of the win total wagers that I’ve made and those I’ve advised my clients to make.  That being said, I’ve changed my opinion on a handful of those 15 teams, in several cases rather strongly.  In this week’s wiseguy report, I’m going to flesh out what I’ve seen in the Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens that have me thinking very differently about those squads today compared to my opinion of them a month ago.

For the Redskins, the change in thought process is Read more



Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Washington Redskins Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




NFL Betting Preview Podcast 7-27-2016: New York Jets

07.27.2016     10:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy wrapped up his coverage of the AFC East with a breakdown of the New York Jets.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/27
Handicapper: Teddy Covers
Team: New York Jets
2015-16 Record: 10-6 SU, 8-6-2 ATS, 8-8 O/U
Season O/U Wins: 7.5
Odds to Win AFC: +3000
Odds to Win AFC East: +630
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +7500
Week 1 Line: New York +2 vs. Cincinnati

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.




Tags: NFL New York Jets Teddy Covers




NFL Betting Preview Podcast 7-22-2016: New England Patriots

07.22.2016     12:38 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy continued his coverage of the AFC East by breaking down the New England Patriots.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/22
Handicapper: Teddy Covers
Team: New England Patriots
2015-16 Record: 12-4 SU, 7-7-2 ATS, 9-7 O/U
Season O/U Wins: 10.5un-125
Odds to Win AFC: +365
Odds to Win AFC East: -198
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +690
Week 1 Line: New England +5.5 at Arizona

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Teddy Covers




NFL Betting Preview Podcast 7-20-2016: Miami Dolphins

07.20.2016     10:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy continued his coverage of the AFC East by breaking down the Miami Dolphins.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/20
Handicapper: Teddy Covers
Team: Miami Dolphins
2015-16 Record: 6-10 SU, 5-11 ATS, 7-9 O/U
Season O/U Wins: 7ov-130
Odds to Win AFC: +3350
Odds to Win AFC East: +775
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +8800
Week 1 Line: Miami +9 at Seattle

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.




Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Teddy Covers




NFL Betting Preview Podcast 7-19-2016: Buffalo Bills

07.19.2016     10:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy kicked off his coverage of the AFC East by breaking down the Buffalo Bills.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/19
Handicapper: Teddy Covers
Team: Buffalo Bills
2015-16 Record: 8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U
Season O/U Wins: 8
Odds to Win AFC: +2025
Odds to Win AFC East: +555
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +4600
Week 1 Line: Buffalo +2.5 at Baltimore

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.




Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling News: Patriots remain AFC and Super Bowl favs despite Brady's supension

07.19.2016     07:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
While Tom Brady's 4-game suspension will have an impact on the pointspreads of New England's games, it hasn't caused much of a stir in the futures market. According to 5Dimes, the Patriots remain the betting favorite to win the AFC East (-198), AFC (+365), and Super Bowl 51 (+690). Week 1's matchup at Arizona was originally lined as a pick 'em but CRIS reopened with the Cardinals a -5.5 favorite. Following Week 1, New England will play three consecutive home games vs. Miami, Houston, and Buffalo.  




Tags: NFL New England Patriots




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the AFC East

07.18.2016     07:56 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Our NFL Team Previews for the upcoming campaign continues.  This week, I’ll be focusing on the AFC East, and next week I’ll conclude the series with a look at four squads from the NFC East.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order within their division.

We'll start with the Buffalo Bills who are lined at 8 wins for the upcoming season.  Buffalo owns the longest playoff drought in the NFL; now at 16 seasons and counting.  The Bills have at least returned to relevance over the past two seasons, winning nine games in 2014, followed by an 8-8 campaign last year.

Rex Ryan is set to begin his second year on the job.  Rex’s brother, defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, coached one of the worst defenses in NFL history in New Orleans last year.  Now Ryan takes over a defense that plummeted from a no. 4 yardage ranking in 2014 to 19th in 2015 as sacks dropped from 54 to 21.  Top two draft choices Shaq Lawson (Clemson), Reggie Ragland (Alabama) are expected to contribute in the sacks department immediately.

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman crafted a Super Bowl caliber offense Read more



Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins New England Patriots New York Jets Teddy Covers



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"AFC East'"

March

30


 
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