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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Playoff Contenders

12.22.2014 10:09 AM Teddy Covers Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

Week 16 of the NFL season is in the books and four teams have emerged as clear co-favorites to win the Super Bowl. Green Bay and Seattle are at the top of the power ratings spectrum in the NFC while Denver and New England look poised for a rematch from last year in the AFC Championship Game.

Last week in this space, I poked holes in the NFC contenders, explaining why every other live team in the playoff race had at least one fundamental flaw primed to doom their chances in January. This week, I’m going to point the magnifying glass towards the seven fringe contenders in the AFC. Can any of them knock off the Patriots in Foxboro or the Broncos in Denver when January rolls around? Read on to find out.

The Houston Texans remain one of five teams still fighting for the final two playoff spots in the AFC after knocking off the Ravens on Sunday. But if the Texans do manage to sneak into the postseason with a Wild Card berth, I’m not expecting them to do any damage.

Houston’s defense ranks among the league’s elite, as we clearly saw once again this past weekend. But the Texans average Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Betting Preview: Western Michigan Broncos vs. Air Force Falcons

12.18.2014 07:00 AM Andrew Lange Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Boise, Idaho
Western Michigan vs. Air Force
Saturday, 2:45 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: Western Michigan -2 O.U 56.5
CRIS Current: Air Force -1 O/U 58
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Air Force -0.5

Quite a turnaround for Western Michigan who in PJ Fleck's second season improved to 8-4 after only one victory in 2013. They were the most complete team in the MAC ranking third in both total offense (443 ypg) and total defense (355 ypg) in conference play. Air Force wasn't nearly as impressive ranking 6th and 7th respectively in the Mountain West. The Falcons though played in the tougher conference and Mountain Division which has a chance (if Air Force and Utah State wins) to produce four 10-win or better squads.

One of the concerns with Western Michigan is not only the lack of competition but their performance against comparable and/or better competition. They routinely fell short Read more

Tags: Collge Football Western Michigan Broncos MAC Air Force Falcons Mountain West Andrew Lange

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC News and Notes

10.20.2014 11:26 AM Teddy Covers Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

Atlanta Falcons
Since blowing out Tampa Bay on national TV in Week 3, the Atlanta Falcons have looked nothing short of awful. A team that made it to the NFC Championship Game two years ago is now entrenched in a four game skid; picking up right where they left off last year when they went 4-12 and ranked among the most disappointing teams in football.

All four losses during this SU and ATS skid have come by double digit margins. The Falcons certainly aren’t going to win many defensive struggles – their stop unit has allowed 24+ six times in seven ballgames this year, a mediocre defense on a good day. But many pundits thought the Falcons would be good enough to trade points with most of their foes. That simply hasn’t been the case, in large part, due to cluster injuries on the offensive line, with backup center Peter Konz the latest to go down.

Matt Ryan was sacked five times and hit nine times in Atlanta’s loss to Baltimore on Sunday, while throwing for a season low in yards. "When you go out there and get beat soundly, I think everybody knows we've got to play better across the board. Read more

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons Seattle Seahawks Chicago Bears Washington Redskins Teddy Covers

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College Football Gambling: Air Force making strides on defense

09.24.2014 01:52 PM Printer Friendly

Boise State -13 at -Air Force O/U 57

So far so good for Air Force's defense following last year's disaster in which the Falcons allowed 490.3 ypg. Over half that came via the run, something AFA worked hard at shoring up during the offseason. Through three games, the Falcons have allowed 249 yards on 3.07 ypc. Boise State ran for 229 in last year's 42-20 win.

"We had to get pressure, be pretty multiple in our fronts, have to have some guys that can blitz. … We spent an enormous amounts of time on it in the spring and in August," Air Force coach Troy Calhoun said.

Tags: College Football Air Force Falcons Boise State Broncos Mountain West

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College Football Handicapping: Week 5 early line moves

09.22.2014 01:59 PM Printer Friendly

Quick look at some of the early moves in the Week 5 college football betting markets.

Maryland at Indiana
CRIS Opener: Indiana -2.5
CRIS Current: Indiana -4
Comment: Renewed faith in the Hoosiers after bouncing back from loss to Bowling Green with upset win at Missouri. Even more impressive of a line move with Maryland dominating Syracuse.

UTEP at Kansas State
CRIS Opener: Kansas State -30
CRIS Current: Kansas State -26.5
Comment: Miners off a bye week and look much improved in 2-1 start. Conference game on deck for K-State.

Bowling Green at UMass
CRIS Opener: Bowling Green -10.5
CRIS Current: Bowling Green -8.5
Comment: Perhaps a step down in class for UMass after four straight vs. power conference foes two of which were 3-point losses. Falcons allowed 644 yards on the ground in loss to Wisky.

North Carolina at Clemson
CRIS Opener: Clemson -12.5
CRIS Current: Clemson -14
Comment: Tar Heels off 70-41 beatdown vs. ECU. Tigers finally Read more

Tags: College Football

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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Air Force Falcons vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

03.12.2014 09:47 AM Printer Friendly

Air Force vs. Fresno State -6.5 O/U 136
Recommendation: Under

College basketball totals are set based on aggregate statistics, factoring in a team’s entire schedule. But these totals don’t factor in head-to-head meetings with as much influence as they should. That’s clearly the case for tonight’s Mountain West Conference battle between Air Force and Fresno State.

There have been four previous matchups between Fresno head coach Rodney Terry and Air Force head coach Dave Pilipovich. Those four games have finished with an average of 116 combined points, all four staying well Under the total by a combined 67 points. And even those aggregate numbers are somewhat misleading, because these two teams combined for 18 ‘scramble points’ in the final minute and a half of Fresno’s six point home win over the Falcons back in January; a game that played at a much slower pace than the final score would indicate.

Both teams play a fair bit of zone defense, and neither squad gets easy shots from the low post on any sort of consistent basis – this game has ‘jump shot after Read more

Tags: College Basketball Air Force Falcons Fresno State Bulldogs Teddy Covers

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College Basketball Handicapping: Injury Report 2-7-2014

02.07.2014 11:17 AM Brian Edwards Printer Friendly

Submitted by Brian Edwards

After missing seven straight games with a foot injury, Michigan State senior center Adreian Payne returned Thursday night in an 82-67 home win over Penn State at Breslin Center. Payne scored 12 points, grabbed three rebounds, dished out two assists and blocked one shot in 18 minutes of playing time. However, starting guard Keith Appling couldn't go against PSU due to a wrist injury. Appling, who averages 15.0 points and 4.9 assists per game, is 'questionable' for Sunday's game at Wisconsin. Also, Branden Dawson (hand) remains out and isn't expected to be back until early March.

Florida freshman center Chris Walker made his debut in Tuesday's non-covering home win over Missouri. Walker played only seven minutes, scoring four points with a pair of dunks and two blocked shots. Look for his minutes to gradually increase as he becomes more comfortable with what the Gators are running on both ends of the court.

Minnesota leading scorer Andre Hollins returned from a sprained ankle suffered on Jan. 22 to play in Wednesday's 77-74 overtime loss at Purdue. Hollins had missed back-to-back games (both defeats). He played 36 minutes and finished with eight points, four Read more

Tags: College Basketball Brian Edwards

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College Basketball Handicapping: Injury Report 1-31-2014

01.31.2014 02:34 PM Brian Edwards Printer Friendly

Submitted by Brian Edwards

Minnesota will be without its leading scorer again for Saturday's home game vs. Northwestern. Andre Hollins is recovering from an ankle injury sustained in the opening minute of a home win over Wisconsin on Jan. 22. Hollins averages 15.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.0 steals per game. He was unable to play earlier this week in an 82-78 loss at Nebraska.

Cincinnati senior center Justin Jackson returned to the lineup in Thursday's 69-66 win at Louisville. Jackson injured his ankle early in the first half of Sunday's win at Temple and didn't return. But he looked just fine against the Cardinals, producing 11 points, nine rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocked shots in 37 minutes of playing time. The Bearcats won outright as nine-point underdogs and hooked up money-line supporters with a +350 return (paid $350 on $100 wagers). If you didn't know already, now you do. Cincy is a legit national-title contender because it rebounds and defends as well as team in the country. And Mick Cronin has a senior leader in Sean Kilpatrick that dropped 29 points on U of L and always wants the rock at crunch time.

Rick Pitino's squad had been without Read more

Tags: College Basketball Brian Edwards

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 7

10.21.2013 06:34 AM Teddy Covers Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC thoughts and opinions from Week 7.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The personnel here is just fine. Linebacker LaVante David was amazing, notching three tackles for loss including a sack, knocking away passes downfield and stuffing the run repeatedly. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson was unstoppable as well, developing nice chemistry with the rookie QB Mike Glennon. And after Glennon’s early pick six, he made some great throws, albeit on an inconsistent afternoon. Right now, Glennon falls into the ‘serviceable’ category, not into the ‘developing a future franchise quarterback’ category.

Dropped passes continue to kill this team; three in the first quarter alone. Penalties have been a problem, entering the contest averaging 8.6 per game (2nd worst in the NFL) and committing eleven more penalties here.

As the Bucs were trying to rally back from a two touchdown deficit in the fourth Read more

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons Carolina Panthers Washington Redskins Tampa Bay Buccaneers Detroit Lions St. Louis Rams Teddy Covers

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College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 7

10.14.2013 02:12 PM Andrew Lange Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange

Three weeks, three total meltdowns for Air Force in the second half. The end result for the Falcons was 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS.

at Nevada - AFA had a 35-24 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Nevada scored back-to-back touchdowns with six minutes remaining to win 45-42.

at Navy - AFA led 10-7 at half but was outscored 21-0 after the break and not only lost straight up but failed to cover +13.5.

vs. San Diego State - Catching +3.5, AFA was all but handed a pointspread cover with a 20-6 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Three SDSU touchdowns later the final score read 27-20.

It was only one game, and against a porous Arizona defense, but USC looked a lot more aggressive following the departure of Lane Kiffin. Cody Kessler averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt and the Trojans ran 75 plays and racked up 546 yards. Also note that after feasting on a handful of sub-par offenses, USC's defense allowed both Arizona State and Arizona to move the ball will relative ease (1,120 yards, 7.6 ypp combined). It'll be interesting to see what stop unit shows up this weekend in South Bend. In theory, the Irish should be the type of offense the Trojans can contain. Read more

Tags: College Football Andrew Lange

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"Air Force Falcons'"

March

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