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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 7
10.21.2013 06:34 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC thoughts and opinions from Week 7.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- The personnel here is just fine. Linebacker LaVante David was amazing, notching three tackles for loss including a sack, knocking away passes downfield and stuffing the run repeatedly. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson was unstoppable as well, developing nice chemistry with the rookie QB Mike Glennon. And after Glennon’s early pick six, he made some great throws, albeit on an inconsistent afternoon. Right now, Glennon falls into the ‘serviceable’ category, not into the ‘developing a future franchise quarterback’ category.
Dropped passes continue to kill this team; three in the first quarter alone. Penalties have been a problem, entering the contest averaging 8.6 per game (2nd worst in the NFL) and committing eleven more penalties here.
As the Bucs were trying to rally back from a two touchdown deficit in the fourth
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NFL
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Washington Redskins
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Detroit Lions
St. Louis Rams
Teddy Covers
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College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 7
10.14.2013 02:12 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Three weeks, three total meltdowns for Air Force in the second half. The end result for the Falcons was 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS.
at Nevada - AFA had a 35-24 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Nevada scored back-to-back touchdowns with six minutes remaining to win 45-42.
at Navy - AFA led 10-7 at half but was outscored 21-0 after the break and not only lost straight up but failed to cover +13.5.
vs. San Diego State - Catching +3.5, AFA was all but handed a pointspread cover with a 20-6 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Three SDSU touchdowns later the final score read 27-20.
It was only one game, and against a porous Arizona defense, but USC looked a lot more aggressive following the departure of Lane Kiffin. Cody Kessler averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt and the Trojans ran 75 plays and racked up 546 yards. Also note that after feasting on a handful of sub-par offenses, USC's defense allowed both Arizona State and Arizona to move the ball will relative ease (1,120 yards, 7.6 ypp combined). It'll be interesting to see what stop unit shows up this weekend in South Bend. In theory, the Irish should be the type of offense the Trojans can contain.
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Andrew Lange
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College Football Handicapping: San Diego State has fared well vs. option offenses
10.09.2013 07:16 AM
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San Diego State
-3.5 at
Air Force
O/U 54
San Diego State has seen plenty of the option over the last three seasons having played six games against Service Academies. And not only is there experience but success as well as the Aztecs went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in those contests.
2012
SDSU (-7) 28 vs. Air Force 9
SDSU (-5.5) 42 vs. Army 7
2011
SDSU (+7) 41 at Air Force 27
SDSU 23 at Army (+9.5) 20
2010
SDSU (-3) 35 vs. Navy 14
SDSU (+1) 27 vs. Air Force 25
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San Diego State Aztecs
Air Force Falcons
Mountain West
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College Football Gambling Trends: Close games highlight Navy-Air Force series
10.04.2013 08:01 AM
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Air Force
at
Navy
-11 O/U 55
No question Air Force is down this season, especially defensively where they’ve steadily declined since the departure of defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter. But when it comes to rivalries among Military Academies, recent records and results are often irrelevant. The pointspread for Saturday's game is the highest it's been since 2003 and during that span only one contest was decided by double-digits.
2012: Navy (+9) 28 at Air Force 21 (OT)
2011: Air Force (+3) 35 at Navy 34 (OT)
2010: Air Force 14 vs. Navy (+10) 6
2009: Navy (-2.5) 16 vs. Air Force 13 (OT)
2008: Navy (+4.5) 33 at Air Force 27
2007: Navy (-2.5) 31 vs. Air Force 20 < biggest margin
2006: Navy (+2.5) 24 at Air Force 17
2005: Navy (+2) 27 vs. Air Force 24
2004: Navy (+1.5) 24 at Air Force 21
2003: Navy (+13.5) 25 vs. Air Force 25 < biggest pointspread
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Air Force Falcons
Mountain West
Navy Midshipmen
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College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 5
09.30.2013 07:44 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
I'll admit I was a little turned off by Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster's verbal distaste for having to play Georgia Tech on short rest. I knew Tech's defense was good but the Yellow Jackets are notorious for taking advantage of ill-prepared teams. Foster however may have been sandbagging because the Hokies went down to Atlanta and completely shut down GT's running game (129 yards). And what makes Foster's defense impressive is how they've progressively gotten better against Tech's offense: 2010 - 426 total yards, 2011 - 340 total yards, 2012 - 288 total yards, and last week - 273 yards. Saturday's win marked the Hokies' fourth straight victory over the Yellow Jackets. And I'll throw a little praise Logan Thomas' way. The senior QB came up with arguably his best performance in two seasons: 19-of-25, 221 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 58 yards rushing, 1 TD.
If you follow me and the Sportsmemo blog's game previews you know that I've been having a field day betting against SMU. The Mustangs put up a little better effort against TCU (10-7 lead at halftime) but once again broke down when times got tough. The Horned Frogs put up 31 in the fourth quarter including a kick
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NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 1
09.10.2013 03:11 PM
ICC
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Cause for concern for the defending champs
Most people knew there would be an adjustment period for the Baltimore Ravens after many changes during the offseason but the holes were very much evident following their humbling 49-27 season opening loss in Denver. The Ravens offense had a solid first half but simply died from the moment that both starting right tackle Michael Oher and receiver Jacoby Jones left the game with injuries. Oher’s injury isn’t serious but Jones will be sidelined for approximately 4-6 weeks with a sprained MCL. From that point of the game, the Ravens offense stalled repeatedly. Denver keyed in on the ground game and shut down running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Meanwhile, players like Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson proved they were not ready to step up and fill the production void left by the injuries to Jones and Dennis Pitta as well as the departed Anquan Boldin. That allowed Denver to focus their attention defensively on Torrey Smith and nobody else was able to step up for the Ravens in the receiving corps. Clark and Dickson both dropped multiple passes thrown to them by Joe Flacco. Baltimore’s secondary also
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Ian Cameron
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet college basketball in February
02.18.2013 07:36 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
I’ve done my last two columns breaking down aggregate season long stats, examining the very best and very worst pointspread teams in all of college basketball. Next week, the focus shifts towards conference tournaments and the Big Dance. In between? This little doozy about how to make money betting NCAA hoops in the always tricky month of February!
The key to late regular season college hoops for me has always been about morphing teams – squads whose long term numbers don’t match their short term momentum – either positive or negative. There are quite literally dozens of such teams right now, all of whom are at least moderately mispriced in the betting markets these days, offering savvy bettors solid opportunities on a near daily basis.
Who are some of these teams? Why are they morphing now? Read on to find out!
I’ll start with a handful of teams moving in the right direction – from mediocre to good, or from good to great.
Georgetown
certainly stands out on this list; a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in their last seven contests. The Hoyas were never a bad team, but a 2-3 SU start in
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Georgetown Hoyas
Saint Louis Billikens
Air Force Falcons
UNLV Running Rebels
Wyoming Cowboys
Creighton Blue Jays
Michigan Wolverines
Teddy Covers
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NFL Handicapping: Drive Points and Power Ratings for Super Bowl XLVII
01.21.2013 01:41 PM
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Stat Intelligence
As promised, we’re back to look at the drive point numbers for the two remaining teams in the NFL brackets. If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. We’ve been using it through the regular season to try and get a read as best as possible on “true” offense and defense.
First, a reminder of the regular season averages for the Super Bowl bound San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens.
Regular Season Averages
San Francisco: 15.4 on offense, 11.6 on defense (#3 Sagarin schedule)
Baltimore: 15.7 on offense, 12.5 on defense (#18 Sagarin schedule)
The Niners get the nod in regular season numbers, with +3.8 vs. a killer schedule being better than +3.2 vs. what was roughly an average schedule. Is strength of schedule enough to bump them up to superiority by more than a field goal at a neutral site? Interesting that teams coached by brothers had such similar
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San Francisco 49ers
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Super Bowl XLVII
Stat Intelligence
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Mountain West Betting News and Notes 1-15-2013
01.15.2013 06:59 AM
Rob Veno
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Wyoming Suspends Second-Leading Scorer Luke Martinez
Luke Martinez has been suspended indefinitely from the Wyoming basketball team as the result of a bar fight last month that left him with a broken finger.
According to the Star-Tribune, there were charges filed against Martinez this weekend as a result of the incident.
Martinez is the second-leading scorer for the Cowboys, a team that remained undefeated until last week and that has set themselves up nicely for a run at an NCAA tournament berth. There is no doubt that this injury — and the suspension — puts a dent into those plans.
Head coach Larry Shyatt has said that Martinez will not return to the team until the legal system has taken its course. For now, the Cowboys are going with a starting lineup consisting of three point guards and a pair
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Wyoming Cowboys
Air Force Falcons
Colorado State Rams
Nevada Wolf Pack
Rob Veno
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Armed Forces Bowl Gambling Preview: Air Force Falcons vs. Rice Owls
12.27.2012 05:55 AM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
Armed Forces Bowl - Fort Worth, Texas
Saturday, December 29, 8:45 am PT - ESPN
Air Force
vs.
Rice
CRIS Opener:
Rice pk O/U 60.5
CRIS Current:
Air Force -3 O/U 61
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Air Force -0.5
Rice (6-6, 4-4 C-USA) won five of its last six games, including four in a row, to become bowl eligible for the first time since playing in the 2008 Texas Bowl. It will be the 10th bowl appearance in the school's history. "There's an enthusiasm and pride right now with everybody associated with Rice," coach David Bailiff said. "I've never been more proud of a bunch of young men that stuck together and made this possible. They refused to lose." Rice certainly enters this game with the requisite amount of motivation and enthusiasm to expect a good effort, especially since they’ve been shut out from playing in the postseason the last three years. Air Force went
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Air Force Falcons
Mountain West
Rice Owls
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Ian Cameron
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