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Overlooked Super Bowl XLVII Handicapping Factor: Baltimore's Disruptive Defense
01.25.2013 07:04 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
We’re still early in the hype sequence for this year’s Super Bowl. But, already, it’s pretty clear that the main stories are going to be:
The Harbaugh brother angle
Colin Kaepernick and related Kaepernickia
Joe Flacco breaking through to “elite” status
Ray Lewis’s retirement
Something I think has been overlooked so far (and I'm including myself in this) is the role Baltimore’s defense has played in disrupting opposing quarterbacks so far in the playoffs. You regulars know that I developed a ridiculously simple stat for eyeballing how clean or sloppy an offense is playing…or, from the other perspective, how clean or sloppy an opposing defense allows an offense to play.
Sloppiness: 5 times turnovers…plus the number of incomplete passes
I’m pleased that so many have agreed with me that this is a great stat for painting the picture of a game, even if it is embarrassingly
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Tags:
NFL
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl XLVII
Stat Intelligence
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NFL Handicapping: Drive Points and Power Ratings for Super Bowl XLVII
01.21.2013 01:41 PM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
As promised, we’re back to look at the drive point numbers for the two remaining teams in the NFL brackets. If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. We’ve been using it through the regular season to try and get a read as best as possible on “true” offense and defense.
First, a reminder of the regular season averages for the Super Bowl bound San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens.
Regular Season Averages
San Francisco: 15.4 on offense, 11.6 on defense (#3 Sagarin schedule)
Baltimore: 15.7 on offense, 12.5 on defense (#18 Sagarin schedule)
The Niners get the nod in regular season numbers, with +3.8 vs. a killer schedule being better than +3.2 vs. what was roughly an average schedule. Is strength of schedule enough to bump them up to superiority by more than a field goal at a neutral site? Interesting that teams coached by brothers had such similar
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Tags:
NFL
San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl XLVII
Stat Intelligence
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NFL Handicapping: Public lined up on San Francisco, Baltimore, and both overs
01.18.2013 07:21 AM
Printer Friendly
A quick look at few betting consensuses for this weekend's NFL Conference Championships.
OddsShark shows 63.1% lined up on San Francisco while underdog Baltimore checks in at 55.6%. The over for both games is right at 64%.
Sports Options shows a similar output with 71% of the "public" on the 49ers and 57% on the Ravens. Both totals again, at 60% or more to the over.
Bookmaker's numbers are even stronger – these represent the number of bets, not handle. San Fran has taken a whopping 74.6% of bets and the over (wow!) at 83.8%. Baltimore is just shy of 60% and the over at 77.7%.
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Atlanta Falcons
New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
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Sportsbooks and bettors react to San Francisco 49ers, Kaepernick
01.18.2013 06:51 AM
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San Francisco
-4 at
Atlanta
O/U 48.5
Last week, with minimal line shopping, you could have bet the San Francisco 49ers -3 (+100/+105) at home against Green Bay. That seemed like
legalized stealing
considering as of this morning only a few sportsbooks are offering the 49ers -3.5 on the road at Atlanta for Sunday’s NFC Championship.
"We all knew they were pretty good," said Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, public relations director for William Hill and its 75 Nevada sportsbooks. "Now you throw this kid in there who is energizing the process, and it just means more money on the 49ers. And rightfully so. How high can it go? I don't know."
"We act much quicker on these things than we once did," Vaccaro said. "We have the whole world betting these games, so you have to make them
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San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons
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NFL Handicapping: Why The Atlanta Falcons are +4
01.17.2013 07:35 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
There’s a growing chorus in the handicapping/betting world that the line has over-adjusted in Sunday’s San Francisco/Atlanta matchup for the NFC Championship…with little apparent justification for the current number of San Francisco -4.
Let’s review a few keys.
*Sharps aren’t betting the 49ers at -4. But, they sure loved them at a field goal or less. It’s hard to know for sure from the outside how much of the moves beyond the three can be linked to sharp sentiment or square sentiment (the public). What’s clear is that sharps weren’t thinking the line should be pick-em or -1. Sharps had the 49ers at least 6 or 6.5 points better on a neutral field. Sharps stopped betting the Niners at a number that represented 7 points better on a neutral field.
*The advanced analytic stuff I’ve seen around the web supports that passion at an affordable price. Measures are showing that San Francisco has a much better offense when you adjust for
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San Francisco 49ers
Stat Intelligence
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NFL Gambling Trends: Conference Championships in Domed Stadiums
01.16.2013 11:28 AM
Otto Sports
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Submitted by Otto Sports
Let’s take a look at AFC and NFC Championship history since 2000 when games are played in domes. It seems like the old adage of the indoor stadium being a fast track has held true, even in a most pressurized sense of playoff football! All five contests went OVER the total. The total for Sunday's NFC Championship in Atlanta was bet up from an opener of 47 to 49.
AFC and NFC Championship Betting History in Domes
Year
Matchup
Total
Score
O/U
2009
Colts vs. Jets
40
30-17
Over
2009
Saints vs. Vikings
53.5
31-28
Over
2008
Cardinals vs. Eagles
47
32-25
Over
2006
Colts vs. Patriots
48.5
38-34
Over
2001
Rams vs. Eagles
50.5
29-24
Over
Results
57.6 ppg
5-0 O/U
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Atlanta Falcons
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NFL Handicapping: Atlanta Falcons become a more attractive teaser bet at +10.5
01.15.2013 06:37 AM
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With San Francisco now at -4.5 vs. Atlanta it gives bettors the option of teasing the Falcons up to +10.5 (crossing the key numbers of +6, +7, and +10). Over the last 12 NFL conference championships, using a 6-point teaser on the underdog resulted in an 11-1 record.
6-point underdog tease
NY Giants +8 - WIN
Baltimore +13 - WIN
Chicago +9.5 - WIN
NY Jets +10 - WIN
Minnesota +10 - WIN
NY Jets +14 - WIN
Arizona +9.5 - WIN
Baltimore +12 - WIN
San Diego +20 - WIn
NY Giants +13.5 - WIN
New Orleans +8.5 - LOSS
New England +9.5 - WIN
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NFL Gambling Update: For a second straight day, betting markets poound 49ers
01.15.2013 06:17 AM
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UPDATE
Fresh off Sunday's move from -3 to -3.5, another wave of San Francisco 49ers money came pouring in yesterday driving the line as high as as -4.5 for Sunday's NFC Championship vs. Atlanta. If you were to poll bettors at halftime of last week's divisional games (San Francisco led 24-21 and Atlanta led 20-0) on a 49ers-Falcons line, we seriously doubt there would be many saying -4.5 road chalk.
Line history courtesy of CRIS.
NFL Handicapping: 49ers bet hard off opening number for NFC Championship
01.14.2013 06:39 AM
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NFL Gambling News: Super Bowl XLVII betting lines
01.14.2013 02:02 PM
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Here are your look-ahead lines for Super Bowl XLVII courtesy of 5Dimes.
AFC -2.5 (-115) vs. NFC
San Francisco -3.5 vs. Baltimore
New England -2 vs. San Francisco
Atlanta -1.5 vs. Baltimore
New England -5.5 vs. Atlanta
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New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons
Super Bowl XLVII
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NFL Handicapping: Dual-threat quarterbacks vs. Atlanta Falcons
01.14.2013 01:37 PM
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A quick look at how dual-threat quarterbacks fared against the Atlanta Falcons this season. San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick, the opitome of a dual-threat, threw for 262 yards and rushed for 181 yards in last week's playoff win over Green Bay. Note that Washington's Robert Griffin III was forced to leave the game early with a concussion.
Cam Newton (Game 1): 15-of-24, 215 yards, 2 TD, 0 INTs, 9 rushes, 86 yards, 1 TD
Cam Newton (Game 2): 23-of-35, 287 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 9 rushes, 116 yards
Michael Vick: 21-of-35, 191 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 7 rushes, 42 yards
Robert Griffin: 10-of-15, 91 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 1 rush, 7 yards
Russell Wilson: 24-of-36, 385 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 7 rushes, 60 yards
Combined: 93-of-145, 64% completions, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 36 rushes, 311 yards, 8.6 ypc
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San Francisco 49ers
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