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NBA Betting Recap: Memphis and Miami headed to Conference Finals
05.16.2013 06:31 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Though there’s still a lot of basketball left to be played…there’s already a rumbling that the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat are on a collision course for the NBA Finals. Both wrapped up their second round series in five games Wednesday Night.
Memphis 88, Oklahoma City 84
2-Point Percentage: Memphis 40%, Oklahoma City 42%
3-Point Shooting: Memphis 3/14, Oklahoma City 6/25
Free Throws: Memphis 25/29, Oklahoma City 16/21
1’s and 2’s: Memphis 79, Oklahoma City 66
Rebounds: Memphis 45, Oklahoma City 44
Turnovers: Memphis 9, Oklahoma City 14
Memphis blew a big lead…then blew a big lead AGAIN before frantically holding on in the final moments. Kevin Durant of OKC stayed out of gas…only shooting 5 of 21 on the evening. I’m hoping statheads who generally decry “inventing a narrative” are learning to think a bit more about that. If you’re really
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Teddy Covers' Vegas Wiseguy Report: Attacking Cantor's Opening NFL Lines
05.13.2013 11:06 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
I’ve got to give Cantor Gaming a boatload of credit this week. While the vast majority of other sportsbooks around the globe collectively twiddled their thumbs following the NFL Draft, Cantor was the first major book to market with both season win totals and with pointspreads for every regular season game through Week 16. And Cantor released all of those numbers in their unique style – confident, aggressive, high limit bookmaking, exactly what the industry needs more of these days.
Of course, my job isn’t to praise Cantor. Like any bettor here in Las Vegas, my job is to beat Cantor! Over the course of the hot, summer months (the first 100 degree day of the year in Vegas comes this week, with many more to follow), I’ll spend a handful of articles discussing those 2013 NFL season win totals as the markets begin to mature. But this week, I’m going to write about Cantor’s ‘every game, every week’ pointspreads for an NFL season that won’t even kick off until September! There certainly aren’t many opportunities in the sportsbetting world to get down significant wagers on regular season games that won’t be played
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NBA Gambling: Home Court Advantage in the Playoffs
05.08.2013 12:27 PM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
I’ve heard a few people talking about the value of home court advantage in the playoffs over the past few days. I haven’t heard anybody talking about the actual numbers from this year! Figured I should rectify that.
Through the Tuesday night doubleheader that just ended in Oklahoma City, we have the following results through 51 postseason games. Note that I’m counting all overtime games as net zero at the end of regulation. So, technically, these are the numbers through the first 48 minutes of all 51 postseason games.
The “average” game has been a win of 3.63 points by the home team
The “median” result has been a win of 2 points by the home team
I had been estimating about 4 points for market value based on the prices we’ve been seeing thus far. That average of 3.63 isn’t far off from that. But, it’s VERY important that the median is only two. We’re seeing a lot of blowouts that are skewing the
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NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Chicago Bulls stun Miami Heat in Game 1
05.07.2013 07:25 AM
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Today was the day for my annual eye check. Which, apparently, I only do once every five years because I had fallen out of their records at the doctor’s office. Given the goop they drop in, and the stuff they do to confirm that you’re getting older, things were still a little bit blurred and streaky tonight. And, THEN the Chicago/Miami game Monday night turned into something where you couldn’t believe your eyes…
Chicago 93, Miami 86
2-Point Percentage: Chicago 45%, Miami 44%
3-Point Shooting: Chicago 7/18, Miami 7/24
Free Throws: Chicago 24/29, Miami 17/25
1’s and 2’s: Chicago 72, Miami 65
Rebounds: Chicago 46, Miami 32
Turnovers: Chicago 15, Miami 8
Great to see Chicago’s passion and intensity continue. It’s very easy to lose a step after climbing a mountain. Chicago climbed a bigger mountain! At least for one night.
You know…we’ve seen Miami
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Indiana takes 1-0 lead over New York
05.06.2013 11:42 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
While Game 1 went flying Over the total by 15 points, the truth of the matter is that New York is struggling mightily on the offensive end of the court these days. They didn’t score more than 90 points in any of their games against the Celtics; the longest streak to start the playoffs since the shot clock came into play in the 1954-55 season. As a result, since taking a 3-0 series lead against Boston, New York has lost three of their last four in straight up fashion despite being favored in all four games.
Health matters as much or more than any other factor at this time of the year, and the aging Knicks are struggling in that department as well. Carmelo Anthony’s left shoulder is getting worse, not better after popping out of the socket during the Boston series. Defensive mainstay Tyson Chandler isn’t anywhere near 100%. Amare Stoudamire isn’t back in the lineup yet, although he could be before this series is through. Steve Novak’s balky back is keeping him out of action as well.
New York earned the #2 seed in the East behind Miami because they were a solid defensive team, hit a boatload of three
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NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Pacers and Thunder take 1-0 series leads
05.06.2013 07:08 AM
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Stat Intelligence
I didn’t get a chance to re-post the regular season statlines before Round Two got started Sunday in the NBA Playoffs. Let’s do a combination report that features those, plus the afternoon boxscores from the first two games of the league quarterfinals.
Let’s start in the East. The format we used during March Madness that helped paint such a good picture for us involved the following stats:
Two-Point Defense
Rebound Differential
Turnover Differential
Made Treys per Game
Pace Ranking
If you believe “defense and rebounding wins championships,” we have those numbers. If you believe that “you have to avoid turnovers” is important when championships are on the line, we have that. If you believe that three-point production is revolutionizing the game, that’s covered. If you believe that playing at your preferred pace while forcing your opponent out of their comfort zone is a hidden key to postseason
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NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Celtics get hot from three, force Game 6 vs. Knicks
05.02.2013 07:49 AM
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Stat Intelligence
I didn’t get a chance to watch Game Six of Boston/New York Wednesday night. I was following along the commentary on twitter. Sounded like the ultimate gut check performance from the valiant if aging Celtics, and a very lame no-show from the arrogant Knicks who shouldn’t have been talking trash.
Somehow…NOBODY SEEMED TO NOTICE THIS...
Three Pointers: Boston 11/22, New York 5/22
I can only talk about the people I follow…so maybe there were places that made this a big story. But…how can Boston fans watch that game and see guts and glory rather than a team shooting way over its head on treys? The Celtics won scoreboard by two treys…with a boxscore edge of six treys…in a stat they would normally be expected to lose handily.
So…give them credit for showing up, playing hard, and continuing to battle. Just keep this sequence in mind.
Boston Treys in This
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NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Denver wins but Golden State moves to 5-0 ATS
05.01.2013 09:09 AM
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The most entertaining series of the first round what was mostly its first dud. Golden State did rally to give Nuggets fans some nausea…and rallied enough to give Nuggets bettors a punch in the gut as Denver (-8) gagged a big lead in a 107-100 finish.
Dog players who lost New Jersey in a million overtimes this past weekend felt that was owed them. Golden State has topped expectations in all five games in this series. We’ve had some fairly consistent tendencies through the five games. Let’s take a look at that.
Series: Golden State leads 3-2 even though an extra game was in Denver
Two-Point Shooting: Golden State leads 4-1
Three-Point Makes: Golden State leads 5-0 (combined 52-35)
Free Throw Makes: Denver leads 5-0 (combined 117-79, yes +38!)
Rebounds: Golden State leads 3-2 (combined +16)
Turnovers: Denver leads 4-1 (combined +9)
1’s and 2’s: Denver leads 5-0 (combined +31)
Three
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NHL Eastern Conference Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Preview
04.30.2013 10:39 AM
ICC
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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Preview
#1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #8 New York Islanders
Series Price: Pittsburgh -380/New York +320
The Pittsburgh Penguins enter the playoffs absolutely spoiled rotten with talent and top tier players. Pittsburgh already had Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, and Pascal Dupuis but that wasn’t good enough for GM Ray Shero who envisions this season as Stanley Cup or bust. Shero pulled off two blockbuster trades before the deadline acquiring Jarome Iginla from the Calgary Flames and Brenden Morrow from the Dallas Stars who both add scoring, grit and leadership to an already stacked squad. Pittsburgh’s defense started the season struggling to keep pucks out of their net but they’ve tightened up their defensive zone play down the stretch and have a good collection of veteran and quality defenseman like Kris Letang, Paul Martin, Douglas Murray and Brooks Orpik. They are hoping to have captain Sidney Crosby back in time for the start of this series. He suffered a broken jaw on March 30th and has been practicing since late last week but has not yet been medically cleared
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Ian Cameron
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NHL Western Conference Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Preview
04.30.2013 07:50 AM
Sammy P Sports
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Western Conference Playoff Betting Preview
#1 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #8 Minnesota Wild
Season Series: Chicago 2-0-1
Series Price: Chicago -360/Minnesota +300
Chicago Keys:
The Chicago Blackhawks have been one of the best teams in the league throughout the course of the season. Rarely have they been outmatched and they come into this series with Minnesota rested and healthy. The knock on Chicago coming into the season was goaltending, but Corey Crawford and Ray Emery have both been superb (winning the Jennings Trophy for fewest goals against). The Blackhawks are so stacked up front with scorers like Kane, Hossa, Sharp, and Toews, but they also have one of the best supporting casts in the league with forwards like Shaw and Bickell chipping in offense to go with their solid two-way play. Facing a struggling Minnesota team, Chicago just cannot beat itself. If they take care of the puck and stay out of the box, their depth and talent will prevail.
Minnesota Keys:
Minnesota faltered big time down the stretch and snuck into the playoffs
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