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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors must be willing to change opinions on the fly

05.16.2016     11:37 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Successful sportsbettors are not politicians.   Politicians take heat every time they change their opinion – flip-floppers!  A politician who is pro-choice on abortion, for example, will take enormous criticism from both sides, and will probably lose his or her next election if he or she switches to a pro-life stance.

Sports bettors, like politicians, are inevitably going to have some wrong opinions – about teams, about players, about coaches.  Bill Belichick was not a great coach with the Cleveland Browns, and was not highly regarded after suffering a losing campaign in his first year.  Greg Popovich certainly wasn’t a high profile, top notch hire when the Spurs decided he should be their head coach.  The Carolina Panthers weren’t taken seriously by most NFL analysts last year until they reached the Super Bowl.  Steph Curry wasn’t a superstar...until he was. 
Throughout the world of sports and sportsbetting, everybody – E-V-E-R-Y-B-O-D-Y! – is going to have some wrong opinions.  But the differences in how bettors deal with those wrong opinions is fairly dramatic; often the Read more



Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors Toronto Raptors Cleveland Cavaliers Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Betting markets don't believe in Thunder and Clippers

04.18.2016     10:20 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When it comes to the chase for the NBA Championship this year, Golden State has taken all the oxygen in the room. What little hype that has been able to escape the Warriors vortex has gravitated towards San Antonio, especially as the Spurs were chasing the NBA all-time record for most home wins in a season. 

Then Kobe went out and scored 60 on the final night of the regular season.  LeBron announced that he was getting off social media and immediately proceeded to go on a ten game tear to close out the regular season, leading the prohibitive favorite to come out of the East, Cleveland Cavaliers.  The national media spotlight just isn’t big enough to cover more stories than the easy ones that have fallen into their laps over the last few months.

And that leaves two teams that I think are legitimate title contenders sitting as relative afterthoughts in the national media spotlight and in the betting markets.  The Oklahoma City Thunder were priced in the 15-1 range to win the NBA Title entering the playoffs.  The Los Angeles Clippers were even higher, priced in the 30:1 range.  Even though the spotlight is shining brightly on the Read more



Tags: NBA Golden State Warriors San Antonio Spurs Los Angeles Cippers Oklahoma City Thunder Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Understanding the MLB Betting Markets Part II

04.04.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I illustrated how the quants have come to dominate the MLB betting marketplace over the course of the last few seasons, completely changing the value equation moving forward.  Advanced metric starting pitching stats have become the primary basis for all baseball moneylines, leaving a market that devalues every other aspect of the game.  That leaves opportunities for alternative strategies to succeed here in 2016 and beyond.

I used several examples last week to demonstrate my point about the modern markets.  The following example is probably the best of the bunch, using the strikeouts per nine innings advanced metric stat (K/9).

In 2005, the top eight pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings were Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brett Myers, Pedro Martinez, John Lackey, AJ Burnett and Jason Schmidt.  Six of the eight starters produced a profit for their supporters, and if you bet on the leaders in the K/9 stat for the Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




College Basketball Betting Preview: Villanova Wildcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

04.04.2016     10:06 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Villanova vs. North Carolina -2 O/U 149.5

Coming off of pointspread covering performances in their Final Four matchups, these teams left no doubt they’ve been the best in the tournament field. Combined they are 9-1 against the spread thus far (Villanova 5-0, North Carolina 4-1) with nine double-digit victories. They are 7-3 over the total (Villanova 3-2, North Carlina 4-1) with six of those seven exceeding tonight’s current number of 149.5. Tonight’s championship game has numerous intriguing fundamental matchups which appear far more significant than the situationals or technicals in determining which tickets get cashed.

It’s no secret that UNC has a distinct interior edge in this one with ultra-athletic 6’10” Brice Johnson (team’s leading scorer, rebounder, FG%, FT% and shot blocker) 6’10” 260 pound Kennedy Meeks, 6’9” 235 Isaiah Hicks, 6’8” Justin Jackson and 6’11” 280 lb. Joel James. These five players form a group that features every asset imaginable from speed to inside force and figure to be difficult for Villanova which only has two post players that Read more



Tags: College Basktball Villanova Wildcats North Carolina Tar Heels Rob Veno




NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls

04.02.2016     09:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Detroit at Chicago -2.5 O/U 204.5
Recommendation: Chicago


The Bulls aren’t likely to have Derrick Rose or Taj Gibson available tonight for their showdown with the Pistons.  That’s good news for Bulls bettors, not bad!  Without Rose in the lineup, this pointspread gets deflated into a ‘SU win should equal a pointspread cover’ range.  And the Bulls have certainly proven adept this season at cashing winning bets without one of their key players on the floor.

And Fred Hoiberg’s squad has looked squarely into the depths of the abyss and come out swinging.  Chicago suffered a four game skid at the wrong time, falling 2.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the East, with only nine games remaining.  The Bulls gut check moment came against the Pacers on Tuesday, when they held Indiana scoreless over the last 3+ minutes of gametime and won on a Jimmy Butler jumper with 3.7 seconds left.   They followed that up by rallying from 14 down late in the 3rd quarter to beat Houston on Thursday.

Coach Hoiberg: “I think the biggest thing is those guys went out there and played Read more



Tags: NBA Detroit Pistons Chicago Bulls Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Boston Red Sox

03.29.2016     06:54 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Boston Red Sox
2015 W-L:
78-84
2015 O/U: 83-73
2015 Profits:  -6.5 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  87.5
2016 AL East Odds (Westgate):  2/1
Projected Starting Rotation:  David Price, Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe Kelly
Key Departures: Alexi Ogando,
Key Additions: David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith, Roenis Elias

Handicapper's Take: "Last to first is what the Red Sox will attempt to do in arguably the strongest division in baseball. David Price and Craig Kimbrel were two of the biggest signees of the offseason and immediately provide the team with an ace-level starter and closer. Newly appointed team president Dave Dombrowski also brought in stud reliever Carson Smith (DL to start the year) and lefty starter Roenis Elias who is a perfect fill-in arm for when one of the starting five struggles or get injured. The only key loss was Wade Miley (Seattle) who despite marginal stuff pitched a Read more



Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Brent Crow




MLB Handicapping: Strength of schedule and Interleague pairings

03.28.2016     06:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article on MLB strength of schedule and the potential impact it could have on regular season win totals. The National League is projected to have the six worst teams (San Diego, Colorado, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Philadelphia) which could mean a few extra wins for those AL squads that draw favorable Interleague slates.


And those 20 interleague games can have an outsized effect. Just last year, the 86-win Astros squeaked in to the second Wild Card, finishing one game ahead of the 85-win Angels. One of the biggest things that separated them was interleague play: the Astros finished a lucky 16-4, while the Angels were only 8-12. They both faced the West last year, but the 87-win Wild Card Yankees faced the East, and they went 11-9, with special thanks to a three-game sweep of the Braves — and that preserved their two-win margin over the Angels.






Tags: MLB




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: New York Yankees

03.25.2016     08:41 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

New York Yankees
2015 W-L:
87-75
2015 O/U:  77-81-4
2015 Profits:  -3.4 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  86.5
2016 AL East Odds (Westgate):  11/4
Projected Starting Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino
Key Departures:  Chris Young, Adam Warren
Key Additions:  Aroldis Chapman, Starlin Castro

Handicapper's Take: "On the surface, the Yankees look like an aging team that is a few injuries away from finishing .500. But if you look beyond the elder statesmen trio of Rodriguez, Beltran, and Teixeira there's a lot of young talent. Didi Gregorius eventually became a big upgrade over Derek Jeter. I also like the upside of 22-year-old Luis Severino who has the potential to be the best starting pitcher on the staff though his workload will likely be capped at around 150 innings. And unlike past seasons, there's talent waiting in the wings with a handful of players in the Read more



Tags: MLB New York Yankees Brent Crow




NHL Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Boston Bruins at New York Rangers

03.23.2016     10:22 AM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Boston +110 at NY Rangers O/U 5
Recommendation: Boston


Two Original Six rivals clash in Manhattan tonight as the New York Rangers host the Boston Bruins in a game with big playoff implications . The Rangers have struggled to play consistent hockey for most of this season and have lost five of their last eight games overall. The Bruins have been playing good, solid hockey, earning at least a point in seven of their last 10 contests and holding one of the best road records in the NHL with a 23-10-3 mark. However, they now face-off with a Blueshirts club that protects their "Garden" well with a 24-8-3 record at MSG on the year. New York goaltender Henrik Lundqvist will have to regain his form in order for his club to gain momentum heading into the postseason. The Swedish native has lost five of his last six starts and has allowed three or more goals within the same span. Boston heads into this contest with a bit of a question mark between the pipes as head coach Claude Julien told the media that starter Tuukka Rask is feeling ill and both backups Jeremy Smith and Jonas Gustavsson will both make the trip to NYC. The Read more



Tags: NHL Boston Bruins New York Rangers Alex B. Smith




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Oakland A's

03.22.2016     08:55 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Oakland A’s
2015 W-L:
  68-94
2015 O/U: 86-66-10 
2015 Profits: -29.4 Units 
2016 O/U Wins: 75.5 
2016 AL West Odds: +1600 
Projected Starting Rotation: Sony Gray, Jesse Hahn, Rich Hill, Chris Bassitt, Kendall Graveman/Sean Nolin
Key Departures: Brett Lawrie, Jesse Chavez
Key Additions: Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Yonder Alonzo, Ryan Madsen, John Axford, Marc Rzepczynski, Rich Hill

Handicapper's Take: "There’s a huge difference between the two leagues this year.  In the NL, six teams are essentially out of the playoff race before the season even starts.  Atlanta, Philly, Milwaukee, Cinci, San Diego and Colorado will consider the 2016 season a successful one if they finish at .500.  You could probably say the same thing about the Miami Marlins, although that team has a bit more upside than the other six.  In the NL, there’s a clear dichotomy Read more



Tags: MLB Oakland A's Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   May 26, 2016 03:36 AM.