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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Spartans and Buckeyes still highly ranked, still not covering pointspreads

10.12.2015     08:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Talking about the college football national championship race in mid-October is a pointless endeavor.  The mainstream media hypes the unbeaten teams and the elite level programs among the Power 5 conferences – that’s what boosts ratings, what the general public seems to be interested in. 

But we all know that the teams that look elite in mid-October aren’t necessarily the teams that look elite when the pressure ratchets up in November and beyond.  Look no further than last year at this time, when teams like Auburn, Ole Miss, Notre Dame and Oklahoma all were ranked as Top 10 teams; championship contenders.  Those four teams finished the season with 19 losses between them, each team suffering at least four SU losses AFTER Week 7 of the season. 

So here we are in 2015.  Ohio State has been ranked #1 since the preseason, and since the Buckeyes haven’t lost in SU fashion, they remain #1.  Michigan State opened as the #5 team in the country (AP Top 25; they were #6 in the coaches poll).  Currently, the Spartans rank #4 in the coaches poll and #7 in the AP poll, another team that the pundits have been Read more

Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Michigan State Spartans Teddy Covers Las Vegas

NFL Gambling Preview: New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

10.09.2015     07:01 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
New Orleans at Philadelphia
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Philadelphia -4.5 O/U 48.5
CRIS Current: Philadelphia -5 O/U 49.5
Recommendation: Over

Banged up and struggling, the Eagles are looking for multiple answers after 1-3 SU/ATS start to the season. Fortunately they reside in the troubled NFC East where the average mark of 2-2 is good enough to create a three-way tie for first place. Because their opponents have plenty of issues themselves, the divisional race figures to stay tight and allow Philadelphia the opportunity to calmly attempt to get things corrected rather than be in early season desperation mode.

Philly’ offensive line is becoming a bigger problem each week as the combination of injuries, inexperience, and poor veteran play has made this a very exploitable weakness. The ill-advised off-season release of OG Evan Mathis has added to the woes. In the secondary, prized off-season acquisition CB Byron Maxwell’s quad contusion had him sitting out Tuesday’s practice because his ability to run full speed and decelerate are hindered right now. If he goes on Read more

Tags: NFL New Orleans Saints Philadelphia Eagles Rob Veno

College Football Betting Preview: South Carolina Gamecocks at LSU Tigers

10.08.2015     07:27 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin blog entry.
South Carolina at LSU
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
LSU -18.5 O/U 50
CRIS Current: LSU -18.5 O/U 50
Recommendation: LSU

Change in venue as South Carolina’s home tilt against LSU was moved to Baton Rouge due to historical flooding in the Columbia area. For the Gamecocks, there’s a lot of things to think about other than football but on short notice they’ll be faced with the insurmountable task of traveling to one of the toughest venues in the country to face of the toughest teams in the country. Note that the Tigers were -13.5 road chalk prior to the change in venue.

Making matters worse for the Gamecocks is the health of true freshman quarterback Lorenzo Nunez. Nunez has played decent thus far considering the circumstances but after throwing three picks in last week’s loss at Missouri, he certainly needs the reps and hasn’t gotten much of them this week due to an ailing shoulder.  Despite playing a fairly difficult schedule, the Gamecocks are averaging a somewhat respectable 5.39 yards per play. This week's opponent and venue however suggests Read more

Tags: College Football South Carolina Gamecocks LSU Tigers SEC

College Football Betting Preview: Oregon State Beavers at Arizona Wildcats

10.07.2015     08:22 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Oregon State at Arizona
Saturday, 1 pm PT - FS-1
CRIS Opener:
Arizona -10.5 O/U 64.5
CRIS Current: Arizona -8.5 O/U 61.5
Recommendation: Arizona

Back-to-back blowout losses has Arizona limping into Saturday's must-win game against Oregon State. The Wildcats are dealing with multiple key injuries most notably quarterback Anu Solomon who is currently listed as questionable with a concussion. But the real problem for the Cats is stopping the opposition as UCLA and Stanford both racked up big yards and big points. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has come out and said that he won't make drastic changes to his defense. Perhaps Saturday's foe, who with a freshman quarterback and limited big play ability, will serve as an opportunity to bounce back.

The handicap in this game comes down to who will win the battle in the trenches. Against Stanford, Oregon State was outgained by 102 total yards and an alarming 325-111 on the ground. The Cardinal averaged 6.8 yards per carry after averaging less than 4 ypc in their previous three games. Michigan racked up 225 yards on the ground against OSU; a 166-yard Read more

Tags: College Football Oregon State Beavers Arizona Wildcats PAC-12 Andrew Lange

College Football Betting Preview: Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes

10.06.2015     09:37 AM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith blog entry.
Maryland at Ohio State
Saturday, 9 am PT - Big Ten
CRIS Opener:
Ohio State -29.5 O/U 53
CRIS Current: Ohio State -33 O/U 54
Recommendation: Ohio State

5-0 but 1-4 against the spread, No. 1 ranked Ohio State returns home after slipping past Indiana last week, 34-27. The Buckeyes outgained the Hoosiers by over 100 yards and got 274 yards on the ground from Ezekiel Elliott but three turnovers allowed IU to stick around. Since dismantling Virginia Tech in Week 1 (a win that doesn't look as impressive with the Hokies dropping back-to-back games to East Carolina and Pittsburgh) the Buckeyes have looked disjointed. A lot of their struggles can be blamed on inefficiencies in the red zone. The supposed top-ranked team in the country currently has a 37.5% touchdown rate in the red zone which ranks 121st. It's a far cry from last year's 71.6%. But with as much talent as the Buckeyes have, it's a very correctable problem.

And back at home against Maryland should serve as a prime opportunity to make a correction. The Terps are a complete mess right now with head coach Randy Edsall with one foot out the Read more

Tags: College Football Maryland Terrapins Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten Alex B. Smith

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: The NFL's square/sharp divide

10.05.2015     07:50 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
On Twitter every Sunday, there’s always significant discussion of what the NFL sharp/square divide games are for that day.  There’s an old quote from legendary Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro that goes like this: “Squares bet teams, sharps bet numbers.”  And there’s plenty of truth to that quote.  For example, at the weekly Tuesday Group football discussion for pro bettors here in Vegas, nobody says “I like team X this weekend.”  They say, “I like Team X at +3 or higher.”  Recreational players, on the other hand, have a general tendency to focus on teams, not pointspreads. 

That gives pros a leg up when it comes to catching half point wins instead of half point losses in games that finish with a final margin right around the pointspread or total.  Last Thursday’s Ravens-Steelers game is a classic example of that.  Line shoppers, by definition, at least somewhat sharp, won laying -2.5 with Baltimore and pushed taking +3 with Pittsburgh, able to avoid a losing ticket regardless of which side they bet.  The vast majority of non-line shoppers took a push with either Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

College Football Betting Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats

10.02.2015     07:53 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Minnesota at Northwestern
Saturday, 9 am PT - Big Ten
CRIS Opener:
Northwestern -6 O/U 39.5
CRIS Current: Northwestern -3.5 O/U 41
Recommendation: Northwestern

All the technical trends point towards Minnesota in this ballgame.  The Gophers have been great underdogs in the Jerry Kill era; 10-2 ATS in their last dozen tries, the only two losses coming at TCU last year (in a game where Minnesota’s offensive line was riddled with injuries) and their bowl game against SEC East champs Missouri – two teams that are better than Northwestern.  The Gophers have covered on each of their last NINE visits to Evanston.  Meanwhile, Northwestern has been a pointspread disaster as home chalk, just 2-9 against the number in their last eleven tries.  No surprise, then, that the early money has poured in on Minnesota, driving the NW -6 opener down to the current four point spread.

But there’s one big problem blindly betting trends and angles like the ones presented above – they don’t factor in anything other than past pointspread history.  And whatever Read more

Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Northwestern Wildcats Big Ten Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early season college football money burners

09.28.2015     08:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in my Wiseguy Report, I look an in-depth look at the 13 teams that started the college football season 3-0 ATS.   In general, those teams had quite a few commonalities:

“Non-descript teams that aren’t getting much hype or love from the preseason betting markets, the preseason publications or the preseason talking heads.  Teams coming off a bad bowl loss or a late season collapse are definitely worth an extra look, as are teams replacing an experienced, but perhaps underachieving, quarterback.”

I concluded the article with this paragraph: “These early season ATS outliers are NOT likely to continue their red hot runs.  The under-the-radar concept when it comes to finding strong ATS teams in early season play holds sway when it comes to early season results as well.  Many, if not most, of the elite ATS teams in college football this year have already lost at least once against the spread, putting them squarely under-the-radar as potential elite ATS squads moving forward."

If you bet on all 13 of the teams that entered last weekend with a 3-0 ATS mark, you lost money.  Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early season college football money makers

09.21.2015     09:15 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re already a quarter of the way through the college football season, with the first three weekends in the rear view mirror.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’m going to focus on the early season pointspread outliers.  Of the 128 FBS teams that we see lines on every week, 13 have gone 3-0 ATS to open the season. Ten have gone 0-3 ATS.  Because of space limitations, I’m going to focus on the 3-0 teams this week, while taking a closer look at the struggling ATS squads in next week’s article. 

What should we expect from these hot ATS teams moving forward?  And how can we look for those outlier teams from the get-go next year?  Read on to find out.

Ole Miss, NC State, Northwestern, Ohio, Air Force, BYU, Buffalo, Middle Tennessee State, Rice, Southern Miss, Washington, Central Michigan and SMU.  The only obvious commonality between those 13 squads is their 3-0 ATS mark.  I could easily add the likes of Texas Tech and Colorado State to this list, both 2-0-1 ATS.  And 2-0 ATS Navy hasn’t played three games yet; worthy of inclusion into this discussion. 

Even if we Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers Las Vegas

College Football Betting Preview: Calofornia Golden Bears at Texas Longhorns

09.18.2015     07:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
California at Texas
Saturday, 4:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
California -3 O/U 60
CRIS Current: California -7 O/U 58
Recommendation: Texas

We’re getting a real pointspread bargain here thanks to the nuances of the betting marketplace here in September.   The bettable line for this game from the Westgate Superbook here in Las Vegas, exactly one month ago, was Texas -9.5.  Let me repeat that: Texas -9.5.  Personnel wise, virtually nothing has changed in the last month.  But the perception of these two teams has changed in the markets, and that offers us legitimate value.

Cal was a hot team in the betting markets in Week 1, taking money against FCS Grambling.  They closed as 45-point favorites and covered the spread by two touchdowns.  Last week, the money poured in on the Bears immediately after the line was posted.  Cal opened as low as -7 against San Diego State, but they closed -13 and again, covered the spread by two touchdowns.

What have we seen this week?  The exact same betting pattern!  Cal opened as -3 favorites Read more

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12 Texas Longhorns Big XII Teddy Covers


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