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College Football Handicapping: Big Ten Divisional Crossover Games

06.19.2018     11:41 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Let's take an early look at the Big Ten's scheduling partners for the upcoming season. Two years ago, the Big Ten moved to nine league games which caused a home/road imbalance. This season, the East Division benefits by having two of its three crossover games and five of its nine league games at home. Ohio State, for example, doesn't play Wisconsin or Iowa the two top teams from the West based on season over/under wins. Penn State gets both the Hawkeyes and Badgers but both games are in Happy Valley. The league office must have it out for Nebraska; the Cornhuskers drew the East's Penn State and Ohio State in 2017 and must travel to Ann Arbor and Columbus while hosting Michigan State this season. Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota meanwhile play only one game apiece vs. the East Division's "Big Four" Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State.

East (Season O/U Wins) - West Opponents

Indiana (5) - vs. IOWA, at MINN, vs. PUR
Maryland (5) - vs. MINN, at IOWA, vs. ILL
Michigan (9) - vs. NEB, at NW, vs. WIS
Michigan State (9) - vs. NW, vs. PUR, at NEB
Ohio State (10.5) - vs. MIN, at PUR, vs. NEB
Penn State (9.5) - at ILL, vs. IOWA, vs. WIS
Rutgers (4) - vs. ILL, vs. NW, at WIS

West (Season O/U Wins) - East Opponents
Illinois (4) - vs. PSU, at RUT, at MARY
Iowa (7.5) - at IND, at PSU, vs. MARY
Minnesota (6) - at MARY, at OSU vs. IND
Nebraska (6) - at MICH, at OSU, vs. MSU
Northwestern (6) - vs. MICH, at MSU, at RUT
Purdue (6) - vs. OSU, at MSU, at IND
Wisconsin (10) - at MICH, at PSU, vs. RUT

Tags: College Football Big Ten

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

06.06.2018     11:47 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Philadelphia (Nola) +120 at Chicago (Quintana) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Philadelphia

Philadelphia's Aaron Nola has been a model of consistency; on a strong stretch that includes an allowance of only a single run or less in five of his last six starts. He has shown the ability to be effective and pitch well on the road too with a 2.45 ERA and has pitched deep into ballgames going 7+ innings in six of his last ten starts. That should save what has sometimes been a shaky and erratic Phillies bullpen from having to get a ton of outs in tonight's game. On the flip side, lefty Jose Quintana has been slightly better of late but those two good outings came against the subpar lineups of the Reds and Mets. Overall, Quintana has struggled this season at Wrigley Field with a 6.66 ERA in five starts and his track record against the Phillies is not much better: 0-2, 7.36 ERA in two previous starts. Philadelphia cashed a big dog ticket last night in the series opener and I like their chances here of making it two wins in a row at another attractive plus price.

Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Chicago Cubs Ian Cameron

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals

05.22.2018     09:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Kansas City (Hammel) at St. Louis (Weaver) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: St. Louis -1.5 -120

Jason Hammel has no business as a regular starter in Ned Yost’s rotation. The 35-year-old veteran has bounced around with the Rays, Rockies, Orioles, A’s, Cubs and Royals over the last decade; never lasting long enough to get re-signed at any spot. After starting 30 games for the Cubs in 2016, Chicago left his off their World Series roster; a clear indicator of their opinion of Hammel moving forward.

No surprise that Chicago dumped him after 2016. Hammel’s 2017 campaign in Kansas City can only be described as ugly; start to finish. His ERA was above 5.00 at home, on the road, in day games, in night games, pre All Star Break and post All Star Break. But the Royals signed him to a three year deal, so here is Hammel trotting out there every five days for a team playing sub .300 baseball (14-33) to get lit up.

KC is 1-8 in Hammel’s nine starts this season; not exactly going into today’s game with a sense of confidence. The lone win came in a game where Hammel left with a 9-4 deficit before a big (and very Read more

Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers

Las Vegas sportsbooks offer blueprint on how to be successful

05.16.2018     08:58 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
For states looking to open sportsbooks, the logical blueprint is that of Las Vegas. William Hill is already positioned to operate at Monmouth Park. MGM and Caesars have casinos all across the country. Westgate SuperBook manager Jay Kornegay points out that sportsbooks have a very small margin, meaning in order to turn a profit, they need to be run correctly.

“Most of those that are operating in Las Vegas today are operating in other markets around the country,’’ he said. “I can assure you that those companies are excited about the possibility of bringing their expertise into these other markets as they consider sports betting."

“A Las Vegas sports book works on a very slim margin and its the lowest hold percentage of any casino game offered,’’ he said. “Not to mention it’s very expensive to operate.

“The potential operators out there really need to understand not only how a book operates, but also the financials of a book before they put

Read more

Tags: Las Vegas

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

05.08.2018     09:23 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Boston (Pomeranz) at New York (Severino)
Recommendation: New York Team Total OVER 4.5

When healthy, Boston's Drew Pomeranz has proven to be an effective American League arm. Last season he posted a stellar 3.32 ERA and 9.02 K rate over 173 innings. But throughout his career, he's battled mechanics and health and when not right, Pomeranz quickly becomes very hittable. During spring training, the lefty had arm trouble and was placed on the DL. Since his return, it's clear he's not even close to 100%. The biggest red flag is Pomeranz's velocity. Last year his 4-seamer was consistently 91-92 mph. This year, all three starts show him at 89 mph. This has lead to a paltry 8.9% soft hit rate (20.3% in 2017) and 42.2% hard hit rate (32.5% in 2017). His swinging strike rate has also dropped from 10% to 7% and his average exit velocity is up close to 3 MPH. Then there is the concern about tonight's step up in class. Pomeranz drew the A's, Rays, and Royals his first three starts. Now he's on the road against one of the best offenses in baseball. And 2018’s R/L splits (.659 SLG vs. R, .286 SLG vs. L) are even more pronounced than his career Read more

Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

04.30.2018     10:46 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
San Diego (Lauer) at San Francisco (Samardzija) -160 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over

San Diego was looking for the same lightning in a bottle effect that they’ve gotten from rookie LH starter Joey Lucchesi when they called up fellow rookie southpaw Eric Lauer last week. The results were drastically different as Lauer allowed 10 base runners and six earned runs in his three innings of work against Colorado. In fairness, Coors Field is not an ideal venue for a rookie pitcher to make his first MLB start so we’re likely to get a truer feel for what Lauer may be when he throws in pitcher friendly AT&T park tonight. In his debut, Lauer was basically a two pitch pitcher throwing his fastball (69%) & cutter (23%) on 68 of his 74 pitches. He averaged 91 MPH on his fastball and 87 on the cutter so there wasn’t much variation speed or pitch wise in his short stint. Deceptiveness in his delivery has helped propel him to the big leagues (had 19 strikeouts in 18 Minor league innings prior to Colorado start) so tonight will be another chance.

San Francisco very quietly has begun to hit much better scoring 4 runs or Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Rob Veno

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

04.26.2018     09:38 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Milwaukee (Anderson) at Chicago (Hendricks) -150 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

Yes, the Cubs got shut down in Cleveland last night, held to just a single run on five hits. But that was the exception to the rule for Joe Maddon’s squad, because this potent lineup has been on fire. They’ve scored eight runs or more five times in their last eight games, cashing only two Under tickets in the process; a lineup that legitimately has no holes. Every Cubs starter got a hit on Tuesday Night and eight of the nine scored a run; getting contributions from all over this lineup.

That’s bad news for Brewers starter Chase Anderson, who has been allowing waaaaaay too many fly balls in early season play. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) shows that problem clearly – his home runs allowed are way up from last year and his strikeouts are way down. That’s why Anderson’s FIP stands at 5.90 in sharp contrast to his 3.25 ERA, a regression waiting to happen.

The Brewers lineup hit Kyle Hendricks hard earlier this month. They faced him five times last year, with solid success – Hendricks notched Read more

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs Teddy Covers

NBA Playoff Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors

04.14.2018     08:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Washington at Toronto -8 O/U 211
Recommendation: Toronto

The betting markets certainly aren’t sleeping on the Toronto Raptors extended stretch of playoff failures. Make no mistake about it – the Raptors have been a dismal pointspread team in the postseason throughout the Dwayne Casey era, quite literally never living up to betting market expectations.

The results do not lie. The Raptors went 3-6-1 ATS in their ten playoff games last year. They went 7-13 ATS in their 20 playoff games in 2016. In 2015, it was an 0-4 ATS Run as they got swept and in 2014, the Raptors covered only two pointspreads while getting eliminated in the first round in seven games.

When you add up all of that carnage, we’re talking about a 12-27-2 pointspread run in the postseason during the Dwayne Casey era. That includes a truly ugly run in Game 1’s: 11 SU losses in 12 tries as a franchise, including an 0-7 SU and ATS record in Game 1’s over the last four postseasons.

No surprise here that the betting public has been more than a little reluctant to put their $$ on the Raptors as big home chalk in Game 1 Read more

Tags: NBA Washington Wizards Toronto Raptors Teddy Covers

NHL Playoff Series Free Betting Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Washington Capitals

04.10.2018     10:36 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Columbus +110 vs. Washington
Series Recommendation: Columbus

The Washington Capitals have been a perennial playoff team in the Alex Ovechkin era since 2008 as the Capitals have made the playoffs in nine of their last 10 seasons but they have not advanced beyond the second round in their previous nine playoff appearances during that span. Regular season success has not equated to playoff success for this team and that is despite multiple coaches being behind the bench. Washington will look to finally shake those playoff demons this time around but I think they will be in tough to even advance past the very opening round matched up against a Columbus Blue Jackets squad that played its best hockey in the final month of the season winning 13 of their last 16 regular season games excluding their final game against Nashville in which head coach John Tortorella opted to rest most of his top players in a meaningless season finale. Washington head coach Barry Trotz is rolling the dice with his goaltending entering the playoffs opting to go with Philipp Grubauer in net who had a good season but has no playoff experience over veteran netminder Read more

Tags: NHL Columbus Blue Jackets Washington Capitals Ian Cameron

MLB Handicapper Free Gambling Pick: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

03.30.2018     10:41 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Houston (Keuchel) at Texas (Fister) O/U
Recommendation: Houston -1.5 -120

From all indications, the defending World Series champs are primed to be every bit as good in 2018, and there’s no reason to expect any sort of hangover. Dallas Keuchel: “We’re not the Cubs”; in reference to Chicago’s ‘hangover’ season last year following their World Series title in 2016.

Houston picked up right where they left off last October, taking care of business against the Rangers on opening day. This is a rotation loaded with legitimate aces, like Dallas Keuchel who is starting today. Keuchel dominated the Rangers on three separate occasions last year right here in Arlington – two earned runs allowed in 18.1 innings of work while striking out 22 batters and holding the Rangers to a .206 batting average against.

The Astros bullpen is truly elite – there’s a reason the Rangers notched only six hits at home on opening day; struggling to make contact even after Justin Verlander left the game and scoring their only run on a truly meaningless wild pitch in the ninth inning when Read more

Tags: MLB Houston Astros Texas Rangers Teddy Covers


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