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NFL Preseason Free Betting Pick: New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers

08.28.2015     09:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
New England pk at Carolina O/U 44
Recommendation: New England

There’s a very different mentality between the Patriots and the Panthers as they head into their preseason Week 3 matchup tonight.  New England’s starters got crushed by the Saints last week, allowing three TDs and a FG before the offense produced a single point.  Bill Belichick was not amused.  His quote speaks volumes about why the Patriots are worthy of a wager this evening:

 “We weren’t very good on either side of the ball, or in the kicking game. Bad coaching, bad playing, put it all down. We weren’t very good……I think an important week for us in terms of starting to develop a little bit of a routine, especially for players that haven’t been in this program before for them to understand what the expectations are, what the routine is, where they should be at various points during the week leading up to the game.”

Patriots running back Jonas Gray, talking about the sense of urgency for a much better showing tonight: “It’s huge.  We want to go out there and we want to win Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Recap

08.24.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In the NFL Preseason, when coaches almost never play for a late game tie to force overtime, there’s an enormous difference between laying -1 and -2.5.  Games decided by final margins or 1 or 2 points are relatively rare once September rolls around.  In August, they are commonplace.   Three games were decided by a single point this past weekend, in Week 2 of the preseason, with the Bills beating the Browns 11-10, the Chiefs beating the Seahawks 14-13 and the Panthers beating the Dolphins 31-30.

Both Kansas City-Seattle and Carolina-Miami produced a win, loss or push based on betting skills, not handicapping skills, with lines on both games moving up throughout the course of the week.   In addition, the Patriots pulled off the comeback of the weekend to beat New Orleans 26-24, a two point margin.  Meanwhile, there was only one game finishing with a final margin of three points; the Chargers 22-19 win at Arizona. 

It was a similar story in Week 1, with more games finishing with 1 or 2 point final margins than games that were decided by exactly three points.   With two more weeks of these meaningless Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Las Vegas oddsmakers react to Deflategate

08.05.2015     01:42 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers talk about Tom Brady's suspension and how it has impacted their lines as well as placing limits on New England's season over/under wins.

"Home team, capable backup [quarterback]," Rood said in explaining New England's favored status in the opener. "We've put some strong limits on it. If Brady plays, that number could jump to six."

"From what I'm hearing, Jimmy G is going to be more than a capable replacement and [Patriots Coach Bill] Belichick usually always gets his guys ready to go," Rood said about the 10 1/2 number.

"What I don't want to do is have a knee-jerk reaction."

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Las Vegas

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Mini-Camp Betting News

06.22.2015     01:34 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
All 32 NFL teams have concluded their OTA’s (organized team activities) and mini-camps over the past few weeks.  There’s nothing else on the horizon for the NFL before the start of training camps in mid-July.  Therefore, it’s time for bettors and fans alike to fixate on the news trickling out of those mini-camps over the last few weeks.  Here are half a dozen such reports, with teams listed in alphabetical order and information coming from local sources.

Arizona Cardinals - Arizona was an elite team with Carson Palmer behind center last year.  When Palmer got hurt, they were still a pretty good team until Drew Stanton got hurt as well.  Once Arizona was down to a third stringer at quarterback, the back end of the season was ugly as they closed out with a 2-5 stretch, culminating in a blowout to Carolina in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.

Both Palmer and Stanton fully participated in mini-camp, with Palmer entering the new season as the clear starter, even at 35 years old and coming off his second ACL surgery.  Palmer wowed observers at mini-camp, looking extremely sharp in 11-on-11 Read more

Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals Atlanta Falcons Buffalo Bills Houston Texans San Diego Chargers Tennessee Titans Teddy Covers

Super Bowl XLIX Gambling: Offshore still rules the roost when it comes to prop bets

01.27.2015     01:47 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
If you're looking to bet some of the crazy props associated with the Super Bowl, you'll have to do so offshore. Las Vegas is still limited in what they can allow; basically anything not associated with the box score is a no-no with the exception of the coin flip. Meanwhile, most offshore/offscreen sportsbooks offers the likes of Bill Belichick's hoodie color as well as the Nielsen TV Rating.

Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLIX Las Vegas

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Conference Championship matchups are set

01.12.2015     07:52 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The NFL has never embraced the Final Four moniker, but that’s exactly what we’ve got left in this NFL season.  Four teams.  Three remaining meaningful games (sorry, I’m not counting the pro bowl as meaningful, even if you choose to wager on it).  One champion, yet to be crowned.

And there’s one strong commonality among the four teams still standing after two weekends of NFL Playoff action.   Each of the four teams still standing is there because of their quarterback.  As the league has adjusted their rules year by year, making it more difficult to defend the passing game, the very best QB’s have taken advantage of those rule changes, making them nearly impossible to defend.

Bettors probably remember the Patriots gameplan when they travelled to Indy in Week 11; one of four games this year where the Pats were installed as underdogs by the betting markets.  Bill Belichick installed a radically different gameplan than most Pats fans (and their betting supporters) were used to.  New England played for extended stretches with six offensive linemen in power rushing formations, finishing the game with Read more

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers Las Vegas

NFL Gambling Preview: Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

11.20.2014     02:14 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Detroit at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
New England -6 O/U 48
CRIS Current: New England -7 O/U 47.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: New England -9
Teddy Covers’ Recommendation: Under

On the one hand, the Patriots are as hot as any team in the NFL right now, reeling off six straight wins since that Monday Night Football debacle at Kansas City, while going 5-1 ATS in the process.  That includes impressive blowouts over the likes of Denver, Indy and Cincinnati the three teams that would win the other three AFC Divisions if the season ended today.  The Pats currently are a full game better than any team in the conference, with tiebreaker wins against all of them. As of now, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxboro.

But on the other hand, the betting markets are telling us clearly Read more

Tags: NFL Detroit Lions New England Patriots Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Patriots gear up for Eagles' fast-paced attack

08.12.2014     02:22 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New England at Philadelphia -3 O/U 46.5

New England's Bill Belichick talks about his team's preparation for Philadelphia's up-tempo attack. The two teams will practice against one another prior to Friday's game. Last week's Eagles-Bears total opened 38.5, closed 41.5, and hit 62 points. The Patriots-Eagles total opened 45.5 and is currently as high as 47.

“Certainly we have plenty of [up-tempo teams] on our schedule, it appears anyway,” Belichick said. “This is a good opportunity to work on it. We do it some ourselves, so when we work against ourselves, we see that.”

“They produce more big plays than anybody else, so I think certainly his scheme has something to do with it. But, of course they have great players,” he said. “It was the whole combination of

Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles

NFL Gambling Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

10.31.2013     12:06 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
Pittsburgh at New England
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -7 O/U 43
CRIS Current: New England -6 O/U 43
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New England -8
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Pittsburgh

In years past this would have likely been the marquee game of the week with the success these two franchises have had. In fact, of the last ten AFC championship games, nine have featured Pittsburgh, New England or both.

This year, they are both trying to rebuild and do not resemble the high powered teams the NFL is used to seeing. New England has somehow managed to win six of its eight games with Tom Brady having his worst season ever thanks mostly to a lack of experienced weapons. The Steelers meanwhile have struggled to a 2-5 mark and have had trouble on both sides of the ball, with their trademark defense being the biggest culprit, especially against the run.

Steelers’ coach Mike Tomlin Read more

Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers New England Patriots Brent Crow

NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 8

10.30.2013     07:38 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Welcome to a sportsbooks worst nightmare
This was not the week to be a bookmaker. The public, which tends to bet favorites and overs, had a grand time in Week 8. Favorites went 8-5 ATS and totals were also 8-5 O/U. Thankfully, sportsbooks got the desired result on Monday night when the Rams and under both cashed but it still didn’t prevent an overall tough week for the books. Four of the biggest public teams in the NFL – all favorites – overcame sluggish starts to grab pointspread covers: New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos – and three of the four games involving those teams sailed over the total. This is just more proof that it is no longer safe nor practical to simply fade the public. The public doesn’t always lose and it is something that bettors must understand as they attempt to beat the NFL.

The risk of overreacting
It’s easy to overreact to results in the NFL. It happens all the time and even I find myself guilty of doing so. I’ve singled out the Monday night game that likely shocked many bettors when the Seattle Seahawks not only failed Read more

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks St. Louis Rams New England Patriots Ian Cameron


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