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NFL Gambling Preview: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

10.01.2016     10:51 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Buffalo at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -6.5 O/U 43.5
CRIS Current: New England -7 O/U 43
Recommendation: Buffalo

The Patriots have survived the Tom Brady suspension pretty darn well, going 3-0 SU and ATS without their four time Super Bowl winning QB. But with Brady on the way back next week, facing a divisional rival with a real chip on their shoulder, I’m expecting the Patriots to be tested on Sunday in a clear flat spot for the home favorite.

New England doesn’t have a healthy quarterback right now. Jimmy Garappolo has been upgraded to probable, but he’s dealing with consistent pain from his shoulder injury. Jacoby Brissett has a bad thumb, and if the rookie third stringer gets playing time here, it’s probably good news for Buffalo backers.

And the Pats are an overvalued commodity this week. Think about their season. They started with an upset win over Arizona, devalued now because Arizona hasn’t looked anything like the elite squad they were last year in early season play. The Pats nearly blew a big lead against Miami, Read more

Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills New England Patriots Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Gambling: Belichick reiterates Week 3 just another preseason game

08.24.2016     06:59 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick shot down the idea that Week 3's "dress rehearsal" resembles anything close to the regular season. Historically, the Patriots are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS over the last eight seasons in Week 3. Two of those wins and covers came the last two years against the Carolina Panthers -- the same opponent New England plays Friday. The Panthers are currently -3.5 home favorites.

2015: SU and ATS win vs. Carolina
2014: SU and ATS win vs. Carolina
2013: SU and ATS loss vs. Detroit
2012: SU and ATS loss vs. Tampa Bay
2011: SU and ATS loss vs. Detroit
2010: SU and ATS loss vs. St. Louis
2009: SU win, ATS loss vs. Washington
2008: SU and ATS loss vs. Philadelphia

"I don't. I don't know what that means," Belichick said. "In terms of playing time it might be a little different, but in terms of game-planning and strategy, what we see in the regular season compared to what we see the in third preseason game I don't even think you're in the

Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Carolina Panthers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the AFC East

07.18.2016     07:56 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Our NFL Team Previews for the upcoming campaign continues.  This week, I’ll be focusing on the AFC East, and next week I’ll conclude the series with a look at four squads from the NFC East.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order within their division.

We'll start with the Buffalo Bills who are lined at 8 wins for the upcoming season.  Buffalo owns the longest playoff drought in the NFL; now at 16 seasons and counting.  The Bills have at least returned to relevance over the past two seasons, winning nine games in 2014, followed by an 8-8 campaign last year.

Rex Ryan is set to begin his second year on the job.  Rex’s brother, defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, coached one of the worst defenses in NFL history in New Orleans last year.  Now Ryan takes over a defense that plummeted from a no. 4 yardage ranking in 2014 to 19th in 2015 as sacks dropped from 54 to 21.  Top two draft choices Shaq Lawson (Clemson), Reggie Ragland (Alabama) are expected to contribute in the sacks department immediately.

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman crafted a Super Bowl caliber offense Read more

Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins New England Patriots New York Jets Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors must be willing to change opinions on the fly

05.16.2016     11:37 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Successful sportsbettors are not politicians.   Politicians take heat every time they change their opinion – flip-floppers!  A politician who is pro-choice on abortion, for example, will take enormous criticism from both sides, and will probably lose his or her next election if he or she switches to a pro-life stance.

Sports bettors, like politicians, are inevitably going to have some wrong opinions – about teams, about players, about coaches.  Bill Belichick was not a great coach with the Cleveland Browns, and was not highly regarded after suffering a losing campaign in his first year.  Greg Popovich certainly wasn’t a high profile, top notch hire when the Spurs decided he should be their head coach.  The Carolina Panthers weren’t taken seriously by most NFL analysts last year until they reached the Super Bowl.  Steph Curry wasn’t a superstar...until he was. 
Throughout the world of sports and sportsbetting, everybody – E-V-E-R-Y-B-O-D-Y! – is going to have some wrong opinions.  But the differences in how bettors deal with those wrong opinions is fairly dramatic; often the Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors Toronto Raptors Cleveland Cavaliers Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Narrowing down the Super Bowl 50 contenders

12.28.2015     08:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
This is my last Wiseguy Report of the year.  That leaves me with two choices – a look back column or a look forward one. I’m a big fan of post-mortems following every NFL betting week; looking to learn from both winners and losers.  But when it comes to looking back over a whole season or a full year?  It’s harder (for me at least) to learn lessons in the aggregate; much easier when I condense those lessons down to individual games. 

After all, that’s what a season is – dozens of individual betting decisions; made one at a time.  So, while I’ve enjoyed one of the best NFL seasons of my handicapping career, there’s no point in looking back.

Sure, we can identify the worst beat of the year, that’s always fun.  I’d nominate anyone who had Lions and Under when they led Green Bay wire-to-wire on Thursday Night Football….until Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary touchdown pass with no time left on the clock that turned Lions and Under into Packers and Over.  Apologies to anyone who had St Louis plus the points at Green Bay in Week 5, a close second on my list.  But the better way Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at New England Patriots

10.24.2015     08:47 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
NY Jets at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -9.5 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -7.6 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: New York

The Patriots remarkable pointspread success has forced the betting markets to adjust.  Even after getting backdoored with a late TD by the Colts last week; costing New England backers their wagers, the Pats still remain the single most public team in the NFL – the defending Super Bowl champ that’s come out of the gate looking every bit as potent here in 2015.  That has left sportsbooks no choice but to bump up the number to support New England week after week; a point or two of Patriots' tax that leaves at least a little bit of added value on the opposing side every week.

But before we anoint the Patriots as repeat champions, let’s note that they’ve only beaten one team with a winning record all year – the Steelers; on opening day, when Pittsburgh was missing several key pieces of their top flight skill position talent.  The Pats failed to cover the spread in that game as well, and they were outgained by Read more

Tags: NFL New York Jets New England Patriots Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at New England Patriots

10.22.2015     08:19 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
NY Jets at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -9.5 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -8.5 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: New York

Surprising start by the Jets has made this a meaningful early season matchup with first place in the AFC East at stake. Each is already 1-0 against division foes and each ranks as the NFL’s #1 team in opposite categories. New York is tops in average points allowed (15.0 ppg) while the Patriots are #1 in average points scored (36.6 ppg). Adding to the positive differences between these teams is that fact that Football Outsiders website ranks New England as the #1 run blocking offensive line in the league and the Jets as the #1 pass protecting line. The contrasts make handicapping the fundamental aspects of this game extremely important but there are situational and historical angles that are relevant here too. Weather does not figure to be a factor in Foxboro this Sunday.    

The Jets stingy defense gained some more strength when DT Sheldon Richardson returned from his suspension last week. Now in his second week of Read more

Tags: NFL New York Jets New England Patriots Rob Veno

NFL Preseason Free Betting Pick: New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers

08.28.2015     09:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
New England pk at Carolina O/U 44
Recommendation: New England

There’s a very different mentality between the Patriots and the Panthers as they head into their preseason Week 3 matchup tonight.  New England’s starters got crushed by the Saints last week, allowing three TDs and a FG before the offense produced a single point.  Bill Belichick was not amused.  His quote speaks volumes about why the Patriots are worthy of a wager this evening:

 “We weren’t very good on either side of the ball, or in the kicking game. Bad coaching, bad playing, put it all down. We weren’t very good……I think an important week for us in terms of starting to develop a little bit of a routine, especially for players that haven’t been in this program before for them to understand what the expectations are, what the routine is, where they should be at various points during the week leading up to the game.”

Patriots running back Jonas Gray, talking about the sense of urgency for a much better showing tonight: “It’s huge.  We want to go out there and we want to win Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Recap

08.24.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In the NFL Preseason, when coaches almost never play for a late game tie to force overtime, there’s an enormous difference between laying -1 and -2.5.  Games decided by final margins or 1 or 2 points are relatively rare once September rolls around.  In August, they are commonplace.   Three games were decided by a single point this past weekend, in Week 2 of the preseason, with the Bills beating the Browns 11-10, the Chiefs beating the Seahawks 14-13 and the Panthers beating the Dolphins 31-30.

Both Kansas City-Seattle and Carolina-Miami produced a win, loss or push based on betting skills, not handicapping skills, with lines on both games moving up throughout the course of the week.   In addition, the Patriots pulled off the comeback of the weekend to beat New Orleans 26-24, a two point margin.  Meanwhile, there was only one game finishing with a final margin of three points; the Chargers 22-19 win at Arizona. 

It was a similar story in Week 1, with more games finishing with 1 or 2 point final margins than games that were decided by exactly three points.   With two more weeks of these meaningless Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Las Vegas oddsmakers react to Deflategate

08.05.2015     01:42 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers talk about Tom Brady's suspension and how it has impacted their lines as well as placing limits on New England's season over/under wins.

"Home team, capable backup [quarterback]," Rood said in explaining New England's favored status in the opener. "We've put some strong limits on it. If Brady plays, that number could jump to six."

"From what I'm hearing, Jimmy G is going to be more than a capable replacement and [Patriots Coach Bill] Belichick usually always gets his guys ready to go," Rood said about the 10 1/2 number.

"What I don't want to do is have a knee-jerk reaction."

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Las Vegas


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