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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves

06.10.2016     10:15 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Chicago (Hammel) at Atlanta (Norris) O/U 8
Recommendation: Chicago -1.5 -140

It’s hard to make money betting Chicago as a straight bet right now; a team that is 6-3 in their last nine games, yet down more than a unit during that span because of the high prices bettors must lay to support them. But the Cubs remain the single most profitable team to support on the run-line in all of baseball – when they win, they tend to win by margin!  My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the Cubs on the Run Line in their last contest, an 8-1 blowout at Philadelphia on Wednesday.  And there’s ample reason to expect another win by margin against the hapless Braves this evening.

The absolute best place to bet on the Cubs is on the road, where the price to support them is far more reasonable.  The Cubs had the single best road record in baseball under Joe Maddon last year and they have the single best road record in MLB again this year; 19-9 through their first 28 road tilts.  And when the best road team in baseball is facing off against the single worst team in MLB; a team that has gone a truly woeful  Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Atlanta Braves Teddy Covers

Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: San Diego Padres

03.30.2016     08:06 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin


San Diego Padres
2015 W-L:
2015 O/U:  93-62-7
2015 Profits:  -19.2 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  73.5
2016 NL West Odds (Westgate):  20/1
Projected Starting Rotation:  Tyson Ross,  James Shields, Andrew Cashner,  Brandon Morrow, Colin Rea
Key Departures:  Ian Kennedy, Justin Upton,  Craig Kimbrel, Bud Norris
Key Additions:  Fernando Rodney, John Jay

Handicapper’s Take: “Last season General Manager AJ Preller acquired a number of big name players: Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Derek Norris, Will Myers and James Shields. The “all-in” philosophy didn’t pan out as the Padres were pegged for 84 wins but fell 10 games short and lost nearly -20 units in the process. One of the biggest issues last season was allowing the long ball. In 2014, the pitching staff's HR/FB ratio was 8.6% which makes sense considering they play in the NL West and Petco Park. Last Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Drew Martin

Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Atlanta Braves

03.11.2016     07:03 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno


Atlanta Braves
2015 W-L:
2015 O/U: 81-72-9
2015 Profits:  -16.4 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  67.5
2016 NL East Odds (Westgate):  80/1
Projected Starting Rotation:  Julio Teheran, Matt Wisler, Manny Banuelos,  Bud Norris,  Michael Foltynewicz
Key Departures:  Shelby Miller, Andrelton Simmons, Cameron Maybin, Christian Bethancourt
Key Additions:  Kelly Johnson, Alexi Ogando, Bud Norris, Emilo Bonifacio, Erick Aybar

Handicapper’s Take: "Year one of the Braves’ rebuilding process produced a 67-95 record which in betting terms translated into -16.4 units -- the seventh worst team in the league to back. Among Atlanta’s shortcomings was an offense that finished last in MLB in OPS, SLG, HRs, RBI and runs scored. The bullpen had the second worst ERA at 4.69 and only converted 62.8% of save opportunities. Starting pitching was not exempt either as that group ranked 26th in Read more

Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Rob Veno

Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Baltimore Orioles

03.13.2015     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly

Off 96 wins and a trip the ALCS, the Baltimore Orioles remain virtually the same team heading into 2015. That may or may not be a good thing with terms like "overachieve" and "regression" being commonly used to describe 2015's projections.

Baltimore Orioles
2014 W-L:
2014 O/U: 69-89-4
2014 Profits: +34.8
2015 O/U Wins: 82.5
2015 AL East Odds: +370
Projected Starting Rotation: Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman
Key Departures: Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis
Key Additions: Travis Snider

Handicapper's Take: "The Baltimore Orioles have put in some great years under skipper Buck Showalter but can they sustain the seemingly unsustainable level they’ve been playing at?  The major question mark for this team will be their starting pitching. Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, Miguez Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez are all average to slightly Read more

Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Sammy P

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

08.07.2014     09:54 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Baltimore (Gonzalez) at Toronto (Happ) -110 O/U 9
Recommendation: Toronto

This is a maximum intensity spot for the Toronto Blue Jays who aim to take the rubber match of their pivotal three-game series vs. Baltimore. Toronto bounced back impressively last night with a 5-1 win after a lethargic and poorly played 9-3 loss in the series opener. JA Happ, who was a major question mark early in the season when he was inserted back into the rotation, has allowed just four earned runs in his last 18.1 innings of work over his last three starts for a 1.96 ERA. He faced Baltimore on the road back in June and did a very good job neutralizing the Orioles allowing a single run in 6 innings of work with no walks and 7 strikeouts in a 5-2 win. I expect him to have another good outing tonight and the Blue Jays bullpen is rested and ready following Drew Hutchison’s 1 run, 1 hit gem last night which saw him pitch 8.2 innings. Miguel Gonzalez has been solid for Baltimore as of late but his road ERA Read more

Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays Ian Cameron

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers

06.04.2014     10:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

-Baltimore- (Norris) -115 at -Texas- (Martinez) O/U 9
Recommendation: Baltimore

After a half decade of dominance, the Texas Rangers have clearly fallen back to the pack here in 2014.  Their roster has been decimated with injuries, leaving their starting rotation thin and their lineup largely non-productive.  Last night’s blowout loss brought the Rangers back down to .500; the sixth time in seven games that they’ve been held to three runs or less.

The Rangers don’t enjoy much of a homefield edge these days, just 4-10 in their last 14 here in Arlington.  They’ve allowed eight runs or more three times in their last four ballgames – their starters other than Yu Darvish haven’t been very effective and this bullpen is getting torched fairly consistently.

Rangers’ rookie Nick Martinez was forced into a starter’s role due to all the injuries after opening up the season in the bullpen.  He’s coming off a career high 108 Read more

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays

05.07.2014     10:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Baltimore (Norris) +110 at Tampa Bay (Ramos) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Baltimore

The first place Baltimore Orioles have scored 77 runs in their last 13 road games, showing the offensive potency that this lineup was expected to have coming into the campaign.  That’s how Baltimore has won eight of those thirteen ballgames, cashing each and every one of those winning bets at an underdog price.

And there’s no reason to think that Tampa spot starter Cesar Ramos is going to be able to shut down the Orioles lineup today either.  Ramos has been bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation.  He issued six walks in just 4.2 innings against Boston last Thursday, then came out of the bullpen against the Yankees on Saturday; a classic ‘likely to struggle finding a rhythm’ type start tonight.  The Rays bullpen behind Ramos has been overworked and ineffective of late – the Rays starters have completed six full innings only twice in their Read more

Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros

08.11.2013     07:20 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Texas (Perez) at Houston (Keuchel)
Recommendation: Texas -1.5 (-120) R/L

There were times this year where the Houston Astros played some halfway decent baseball but as a whole, they've been overwhelmed by the American League. Since July, the 'Stros are 7-26. And with the departure of Bud Norris, there simply aren't very main quality arms left in the rotation. Dallas Keuchel has grinded out a few quality starts but he's a very fringe MLB arm. He's allowed 17 home runs in just over 100 innings and over his last three appearances (9.2 IP) he's allowed 11 earned runs. Meanwhile Martin Perez has a lot of potential. I watched him closely his last two starts and came away very impressed. Here's a hard throwing left-hander with downward movement on his pitches who is starting to show the ability to miss bats. Perez is coming off a season-high 111 pitches, but he's barely north of 100 innings between his time in the minors and in majors. He should be good to go against the Astros and a worthy Read more

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Houston Astros Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

07.19.2013     10:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Friday, July 19th
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros (Saunders vs Norris)
Recommendation: Take Seattle -118

The Mariners went into the All Star break clicking on all cylinders, outscoring the LA Angels 18-6 in a three game sweep. That came on the heels of series victories on the road at Cincinnati and at Texas, two teams that are a combined 24 games over .500. With a surprisingly potent lineup that has produced at least four runs 13 times in their last 14 ballgames, Eric Wedge’s squad is poised to be a real second half moneymaker starting tonight!

It’s not hard to make a case for supporting Joe Saunders these days. Saunders is 3-1 with a 1.26 ERA in his last five road starts after starting the season 0-4 with an 11.25 ERA in his first five road outings. Overall, Saunders has allowed a single earned run or less five times in his last six trips to the hill while pitching into the seventh inning in all five of those successful games. Facing an Astros team that has notched only ten wins all year against opposing southpaws, expect another solid showing from Saunders and the quality bullpen behind Read more

Tags: MLB Free Play Teddy Covers Seattle Mariners Houston Astros

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

05.21.2013     10:34 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Kansas City (Davis) -125 at Houston (Norris) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

Kansas City's Wade Davis has probably been a bit unlucky this season (.393 BABIP) but you have to be careful when calling for a pitcher's luck to turn, especially when dealing with a fringe arm like Davis. Keep in mind Davis' struggles are nothing new. In 2010 and 2011, as a starter, Davis was a below average AL starter with xFIPs of 4.61 and 4.82 respectively. I've always been a believer of Bud Norris but I do have some concerns after he left his last start with back spasms. His strikeouts this season are way down (33 in 50 IP) after posting a K per inning in 2012. Some of that has to do with pitching in the American League but with only 4 Ks in his last two starts, he doesn't appear to be in great form. Neither offense is much to get excited about but I see the potential for a lot of balls to be put in play tonight and as a result, we'll take a look at the over.

Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals Houston Astros Andrew Lange


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