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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros
05.21.2013 10:34 AM
Printer Friendly
Kansas City
(Davis) -125 at
Houston
(Norris) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over
Kansas City's Wade Davis has probably been a bit unlucky this season (.393 BABIP) but you have to be careful when calling for a pitcher's luck to turn, especially when dealing with a fringe arm like Davis. Keep in mind Davis' struggles are nothing new. In 2010 and 2011, as a starter, Davis was a below average AL starter with xFIPs of 4.61 and 4.82 respectively. I've always been a believer of Bud Norris but I do have some concerns after he left his last start with back spasms. His strikeouts this season are way down (33 in 50 IP) after posting a K per inning in 2012. Some of that has to do with pitching in the American League but with only 4 Ks in his last two starts, he doesn't appear to be in great form. Neither offense is much to get excited about but I see the potential for a lot of balls to be put in play tonight and as a result, we'll take a look at the over.
Tags:
MLB
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros
07.25.2012 10:05 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Cincinnati
(Bailey) at
Houston
(Norris)
Recommendation: Cincinanti -1.5 R/L +110
To say that the Astros are slumping is something of an understatement. They’re not slumping, they’ve completely collapsed; a woeful 2-21 in their last 23 ballgames. 16 of those losses have come by two runs or more, a run line bettor’s paradise to fade this sorry squad.
Houston is jettisoning veterans prior to the trading deadline, dumping Wandy Rodriguez, Bret Myers and Carlos Lee over the past few weeks. GM Jeff Luhnow made it very clear that their focus is on restocking the farm system, not winning games over the back half of the season. "We're accumulating quite a lot of talent in our system, and that's everywhere from rookie ball to Triple-A."
The Astros are 0-8 in starter Bud Norris’ last eight trips to the hill, and he’s only notched two quality starts during that entire span. Norris has issued eleven
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Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Teddy Covers
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MLB Betting News: Despite past success, Norris an iffy play vs. Cardinals
06.06.2012 12:38 PM
Printer Friendly
St. Louis
(Wainwright) -135 at
Houston
(Norris) O/U 8
Bud Norris has made our "watch list" after seeing reports of a
hip flexor injury
. Over his last two starts, Norris allowed 12 earned runs and 15 hits in 6.1 innings. Note that Norris has a proven track record against the Cards (7-2, 2.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). The price however may be too rich on Adam Wainwright who despite pitching better of late is a tough sell as a road favorite.
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MLB
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
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MLB Handicapping: Starting pitcher velocity updates
05.21.2012 12:48 PM
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FanGraphs
provided an update on the currently velocity situations for various starting pitchers. A handful of high-profile arms that were down in April are throwing harder of late (CC Sabathia, Justin Masterson, Roy Halladay, among others). Tim Lincecum meanwhile remains far removed from his velocity of previous editions. It's the main reasons he’s tossed only one quality start this season (vs. San Diego).
Worst starting pitcher profits
Tim Linecum -6.2 units
Cliff Lee -6.8 units
Ervin Santana -6.9 units
Chris Volstad -8.0 units
Dan Haren -12.3 units
Best starting pitcher profits
Bud Norris +7.7 units
Gio Gonzalez +6.0 units
James Shields +5.9 units
Wei-Yin Chen +5.7 units
Johnny Cueto +5.8 units
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MLB
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies
08.23.2011 12:51 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Houston (Norris) at Colorado (White) -165 O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Over
The Rockies have been an over machine at home of late. They’ve already cashed six over tickets in the first seven games of their current home stand thanks to a hot hitting lineup and a pitching staff that has really fallen apart in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Houston has come alive offensively over the past week, despite a lineup that features four rookie starters. After last night’s true slugfest – 34 batters reached base via hit or walk, with 11 extra base hits and 14 runs to show for it – there’s no reason to expect anything different tonight.
Houston’s Bud Norris has declined markedly since the All-Star break. His ERA, WHIP and batting average against are all up; his strikeouts are way down. Norris has never pitched in the Mile High air before and he’s taking a big step up in class after facing the likes of the light hitting Dodgers (twice), Cubs, Pirates (twice) and Padres on the
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MLB
Colorado Rockies
Alex White
Houston Astors
Bud Norris
Teddy Covers
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MLB Betting Notes: Arroyo continues to get pounded with lackluster fastball
08.01.2011 07:49 AM
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Cincinnati (Arroyo) -118 at Houston (Norris) O/U 8.5
There always seems to be something bothering Bronson Arroyo these days though the veteran right-hander says
all if fine...physically
. Manager Dusty Baker was
suspicious
following Arroyo's last start (6 IP, 4 ERs) and pleaded for a truthful answer regarding the dramatic decline in velocity and effectiveness. Since tossing an 8-inning, 1-run gem against Toronto back on June 19, Arroyo's numbers are: 36.2 IP, 48 hits, 13 HRs, 7.36 ERA. Below is a chart of his game-by-game average fastball velocity since 2007.
"I talked to the trainers and they said that he's fine," Baker said. "Sometimes you're just not pitching
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MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Bronso Arroyo
Houston Astros
Bud Norris
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Houston Astros
05.13.2011 11:03 AM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
New York (Gee) at Houston (Norris) -108 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Houston
Tonight in Houston, the Mets will send swing starter Dillon Gee to the hill in the series opener against the Astros. Gee features limited upside and stuff, relying more on control to survive. Last season with the Mets and he fanned just 17 batters in 33 frames. He’s shuttered between the bullpen and starting this season and will now get a full-time look with Chris Young on the DL. The Astros weaker hitting team can plate runs against a pitcher like Gee who doesn’t have the repertoire to overwhelm. Meanwhile, Bud Norris will toe the rubber for the Astros. Norris is a pitcher that knows how to miss bats and possesses strong upside. His strikeout rate actually ranks on par with some of the premier pitchers in baseball. This season the 26-year-old has fanned 52 batters in 42 innings or work, after striking out a batter per inning last year. Norris can bring the heat with a
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MLB
Houston Astros
Bud Norris
New York Mets
Dillon Gee
Erin Rynning
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MLB Handicapping: Verducci Effect pitchers for 2011
01.12.2011 08:09 AM
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The
Verducci Effect
has long been a gauge bettors use in predicting the results of young pitchers. Last season, 10 pitchers were "flagged" and the results were mixed. Cesar Carrillo, Bud Norris, Homer Bailey and Rick Porcello all suffered injuries or regressed. Joba Chamberlain and Wade Davis had up and down seasons. But Mat Latos, Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer all had what most would consider to be strong seasons. Note that Latos makes a second straight appearance. Below is this year's list. Last year's
can be found here
.
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MLB
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MLB Betting Free Play: Milwaukee at Houston
09.14.2010 11:35 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Milwaukee (Capunao) at Houston (Norris) -125
Recommendation: Houston
This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. The Astros are surging; 16-6 in their last 22 games. They’re even better playing at Minute Maid Park: 17-6 in their last 23, dating back to July. They’ve won five straight at home against the Brewers, outscoring Milwaukee 22-4 in those contests.
Meanwhile, Ken Macha’s Brewers are slumping. They’ve scored only four runs in their last four games while winning just four times in their last 13 contests; notching just a single road victory in their last seven tries. Cleanup hitter Prince Fielder has the flu, unlikely to play this evening.
Houston is 8-1 in Bud Norris’ last nine starts, and Norris has four quality starts in his last six trips to the hill, including three straight at home. And the Astros have enjoyed plenty of success against lefties like Milwaukee’s Chris
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Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
MLB
Free Play
Teddy Covers
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MLB Stock Watch: Norris, Wells and Billingsley
05.19.2010 12:44 PM
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Submitted by Erin Rynning
Bud Norris
– Heading into 2009, Norris was regarded as the Astros’ second-best pitching prospect behind Jason Castro. He was called up late last season and after getting hit around some, he closed out year with four straight starts of two earned runs or fewer and overall averaged nearly a strikeout per inning. It’s hard to question his stuff as the prospect ratings listed him as having the organization’s best fastball. During last year’s call-up, Norris did a great job at missing bats with nearly a strikeout per inning. This year, he got off to an awful start but once again owns the strikeout-per-inning ratio that so often equates to success. The problem however has largely been his wavering command. He recently made adjustments to his arm slot which gave him more command of his pitches. It showed two starts ago as he was dominant (8 IP, 1 ER, 0 BBs) against the St. Louis Cardinals. On Tuesday he labored through 4.1 innings and allowed six runs
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