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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Playoff bound, but Super Bowl XLVIII bound?
12.23.2013 07:23 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last year, heading into Week 17, Atlanta was the team to beat in the NFC, having already clinched homefield advantage with their 13-2 (at the time) record. Washington was the hottest team in the conference and Green Bay was considered very live for the title, with Aaron Rodgers just one year removed from his Super Bowl ring. In the AFC, the playoff were expected to be an eventual battle between the Patriots and Broncos, with the other four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston and Indy) largely considered to be fodder for the elites; non-factors.
What happened? A San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl, won by the Ravens; their third straight postseason win as an underdog. Let’s not forget that Baltimore entered the playoffs in the midst of a late season 1-4 SU and ATS skid; a team that NOBODY expected to make noise in January and February.
In 2011, in the NFC, Green Bay was the unbeatable juggernaut with a 15-1 record as the defending champs, and the Saints weren’t far behind, just one year removed from a Drew Brees Super Bowl ring. Meanwhile, the Giants were on the outside of the playoff picture, needing to beat Dallas just to get
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Teddy Covers
Super Bowl XLVIII
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NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 16
12.20.2013 07:40 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Are you missing NFL football on a Thursday night? Here are this week’s Drive Point averages to help you make it to the weekend. Games are presented market rotation order. If you’re new to the blog, these are per-game averages for points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more (weeding out all defensive points, special teams points, and otherwise “cheap” points from drives of 59 yards or less as itemized in standard boxscores). The first sent of parenthesis shows the current strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin of USA Today and Football Outsiders (in that order). The second set of parenthesis shows turnover differential to this point in the season.
That composite helps you visualize strengths, weaknesses, and team styles for all 32 teams. Sometimes they help you find matchup advantages in a given game. Here we go…
Miami: 11.8 on offense, 12.3 on defense (14-6) (+2 turnovers)
Buffalo: 11.4 on offense,
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NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor heading into Week 15
12.19.2013 07:19 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
If you’re new to the blog, these are per-game averages in the sum of total plays + penalties + field goal attempts + punts for games involving each team. Buffalo’s games have had the most plays at 167.4 by my count, even faster paced than the “Oregon-style” Philadelphia Eagles at 166.8. Of course, Buffalo also has a first-year coach that just came up from the college level. The slowest paced team by this measure is Carolina, with 146.0 in their games on average. Hasn’t that pace helped the defense drive while encouraging Cam Newton to play relatively mistake-free?
The scale…
Helter Skelter (159 and up)
Buffalo 167.4
Philadelphia 166.8
Cleveland 165.6
Denver 163.6
New England 163.0
Baltimore 161.7
Kansas City 159.4
Faster Than Average (156-158)
Jacksonville 157.3 (influenced by playing from behind so
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NFL Gambing Preview: Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
11.22.2013 02:02 PM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Carolina
at
Miami
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Carolina -3.5 O/U 40
CRIS Current:
Carolina -4 O/U 41
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Carolina -3
Rob Veno's Recommendation:
Carolina
Have to admit that Miami’s home victory over San Diego last Sunday was a bit surprising considering all of its problems. The largest issue for the Dolphins was the depleted offensive line which took a further hit last week when starting center Mike Pouncey (kidney) was unable to play. With 60% of the starting offensive line out, Miami was able to gain 343 total yards including 104 on the ground at 5.5 per carry. They did allow four sacks and their defense was stung for 435 yards by the Chargers. The win places Miami right at the doorstep of the playoffs at 5-5 just behind the current sixth seed New York Jets who have the same 5-5 mark. Carolina meanwhile, has moved into the fifth spot in the NFC following its controversial Monday night
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Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Carolina slips past New England
11.19.2013 08:31 AM
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Stat Intelligence
It definitely had the feel of a playoff game…matching two teams who are clearly playoff caliber right now. A lot of those go right down to the wire. You watched. You know the tightrope wire this game was walking in the final minutes. Let’s see the numbers…
Carolina 24 (-3), New England 20
New England: 390 yards, 5.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 50% third downs
Carolina: 300 yards, 5.6 per-play, 0 turnovers, 73% third downs
Other Numbers
Rushing Yards: New England 107, Carolina 103
Passing Stats: New England 29-40-1-283, Carolina 19-28-0-197
Drive Points: New England 14, Carolina 24
Stat Score: New England 22, Carolina 18
Sloppiness: New England 21, Carolina 9
Pace: 139 plays + penalties + punts + field goal attempts (extreme clock eating)
Another game where both teams moved the ball very effectively in a slow-motion “take what the defense gives
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NFL Handicapping: New England preps for Carolina's Cam Newton
11.14.2013 07:19 AM
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New England
at
Carolina
-2.5 O/U 45.5
Good article on New England's
preperation
for mobile quarterbacks. The Patriots take on Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football.
"I do [like practicing against Tebow]," Wilfork said. "There might be some times this year that we have to face a quarterback like that. He brings a whole different aspect to the game for us, being able to play against a guy who can run that type of offense is a plus for this team. Not just Tim being here, but it's a plus for this defense because we have to be able to stop some teams that come out and do that to us."
We knew coming into the season this was going to be an area we needed to make sure that we had enough defense for and we spent enough time so our players understood their different responsibilities with this type of
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NFL Gambling Preview: Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers
11.10.2013 07:14 AM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Carolina
at
San Francisco
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
San Francisco -6.5 O/U 41.5
CRIS Current:
San Francisco -5.5 O/U 42.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
San Francisco -8
Erin Rynning's Recommendation:
San Francisco
On the surface, the Panthers are as hot as any team in the NFL. They’ve won four straight and in the process outscored their opposition 130-48. However, the strength of schedule over their four-game win streak was sketchy at best. The Vikings, Rams, Buccaneers and Falcons own a combined record of 7-27. No question the Panthers are still a quality football team, one that I’ve bet numerous times over the last couple of seasons. Their defensive front has developed into one of the top units in the NFL and quarterback Cam Newton has solidified the offense while largely riding the running game.
But this afternoon Newton will be tested in a major
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NFL Gambling Preview: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
10.31.2013 11:58 AM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
Atlanta
at
Carolina
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Carolina -7.5 O/U 41.5
CRIS Current:
Carolina -7 (-120) O/U 44.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Carolina -4.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation:
Carolina
Things have come off the rails for the Atlanta Falcons. They are 2-5 and have lost four of their last five games – the lone win against a woeful Tampa Bay Bucs squad 31-23 in a game they were outgained by 46 yards. Atlanta has cluster injuries at wide receiver with Julio Jones on IR and lost for the season and Roddy White questionable for this week with a hamstring injury. The Falcons have not been able to run the football because of those injuries and thus haven’t been able to score on a consistent basis. Atlanta had just 27 rushing yards on 14 carries last week in their 27-13 loss to Arizona. Matt Ryan tossed 4 INTs and is clearly affected by the lack of his top playmakers in the passing game. The Atlanta
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC News and Notes from Week 8
10.28.2013 07:29 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC thoughts and opinions from Week 8.
Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton looked really good last week against the Lions, and he looked every bit as good here on a five TD afternoon. The Jets played their corners in single coverage for most of the game, and Cincinnati’s receivers won the vast majority of those one-on-one battles. Cinci’s offensive line kept Dalton’s uniform clean for extended stretches, giving him time to throw. And Dalton showed great accuracy on his deep balls, something he hasn’t shown very often as a pro. It’s surely worth noting that Dalton only targeted AJ Green on seven of his thirty pass attempts, spreading the ball among his playmakers; something that’s been a problem for him in the past.
The Bengals have the requisite offensive playmakers to make a deep January run. Their defense was stellar; effectively blitzing (and rattling) Geno Smith, creating turnovers,
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 7
10.21.2013 06:34 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC thoughts and opinions from Week 7.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- The personnel here is just fine. Linebacker LaVante David was amazing, notching three tackles for loss including a sack, knocking away passes downfield and stuffing the run repeatedly. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson was unstoppable as well, developing nice chemistry with the rookie QB Mike Glennon. And after Glennon’s early pick six, he made some great throws, albeit on an inconsistent afternoon. Right now, Glennon falls into the ‘serviceable’ category, not into the ‘developing a future franchise quarterback’ category.
Dropped passes continue to kill this team; three in the first quarter alone. Penalties have been a problem, entering the contest averaging 8.6 per game (2nd worst in the NFL) and committing eleven more penalties here.
As the Bucs were trying to rally back from a two touchdown deficit in the fourth
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