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NFL Gambling Preview: Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers

09.16.2015     09:12 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Houston at Carolina
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Carolina -3.5 O/U 41
CRIS Current: Carolina -3 O/U 40
Recommendation: Under

The Texans were ambushed in the first half of their home opener by Kansas City last Sunday as the Chiefs scored on five consecutive possessions resulting in 27 points. In that mix were a pair of Houston turnovers (1 interception, 1 fumble) which set the Chiefs up in point blank range at the Texans’ 13- and 7-yard lines. Those turnovers cost Houston 14 points and in all, three of KC’s five scoring drives were 22 yards or less.

Houston’s second half performance was much cleaner on both sides of the ball as the offense did not commit a turnover and the defense pitched a shutout forcing four punts on Kansas City’s five possessions. The rally fell short but the Texans did get the once blowout to the point where Kansas City had to recover an onside kick to secure the 27-20 victory. Not really that bad for a game when you consider Houston’s average starting position was their own 19 while the Chiefs’ was their own 40. Read more

Tags: NFL Houston Texans Carolina Panthers Rob Veno

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Power Ratings 1-32

09.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The NFL regular season starts on Thursday.  Here’s how I have the 32 teams ranked heading into the campaign, with a quick blurb each squad.

1. New England Patriots - With Tom Brady set to open the season as the starting quarterback, the defending champs are the team to beat, worthy of my #1 ranking heading into the regular season.

2. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle enjoyed the best yards-per-rush differential between offense and defense last year, but they’ve got significant offensive line question marks as they head to St Louis for Week 1.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers passing game was second to none in the NFL last year, but the loss of Jordy Nelson leaves Aaron Rodgers without his top target for the entire season.

4. Indianapolis Colts - Most elite contenders face a tougher than average schedule because they’ve got to face other contending teams.  Indy, however, plays only four games against playoff teams from last year.

5. Denver Broncos - Peyton Manning is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL by a wide margin, and he’s coming off a season where his arm strength noticeably declined down the Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling: A look back at last year's 20* winner on Carolina Under 8.5 Wins

07.27.2015     08:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Below is Teddy Covers' write-up for last year's NFL Season O/U Wins Report 20* winner. Since 2001, Teddy has produced a documented record of 71-31 70% including 11-1 92% with his 20* Big Tickets. This year's report is currently available for purchase and will be released on Wednesday. Teddy includes in-depth written analysis on all of plays.

20* Big Ticket: Carolina UNDER 8.5 Wins
Just about everything broke right for the Carolina Panthers last year on their way to a 12-4 season.  Following a 1-3 start, the Panthers reeled off 11 wins in their final 12 regular season games in large part thanks to a 5-0 mark in games decided by four points or less. 

Make no mistake about it – the Panthers were every bit as lucky as they were good during that extended winning run.  Head coach Ron Rivera was on the hot seat, but he saved his job thanks to a ‘Riverboat Ron’ mentality down the stretch of tight games, a strategy that offers no hope of long term success.

And the Panthers feasted largely on the weak, with

Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Drafting quarterbacks in the first round

05.04.2015     08:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
To QB or not to QB; that is the question. And when it comes to breaking down the NFL Draft, those QB questions stand paramount.

Jameis Winston was loaded with character questions; a QB with a lack of maturity and poor decision making off the field made his tenure in Tallahassee controversial, to say the least.  Marcus Mariota didn’t have those same character concerns but he can’t match Winston’s full skill set either – there was no ‘Manning- Leaf debate’ over who would go #1 overall between the two prospects.  And yet that duo was drafted #1 and #2 overall by the Bucs and Titans in the NFL draft this past weekend.

There are two basic schools of thought when it comes to taking a QB with a first round pick in the NFL Draft.  One thought is that high draft choice QB busts set the franchise back, often for years.  There are as many (or more) busts as there are QBs that develop into effective starters.  Wasting a first round pick on a QB that doesn’t pan out – particularly when reaching or trading up to acquire the pick – can be nothing short of devastating for a franchise.  Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Conference Championship matchups are set

01.12.2015     07:52 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The NFL has never embraced the Final Four moniker, but that’s exactly what we’ve got left in this NFL season.  Four teams.  Three remaining meaningful games (sorry, I’m not counting the pro bowl as meaningful, even if you choose to wager on it).  One champion, yet to be crowned.

And there’s one strong commonality among the four teams still standing after two weekends of NFL Playoff action.   Each of the four teams still standing is there because of their quarterback.  As the league has adjusted their rules year by year, making it more difficult to defend the passing game, the very best QB’s have taken advantage of those rule changes, making them nearly impossible to defend.

Bettors probably remember the Patriots gameplan when they travelled to Indy in Week 11; one of four games this year where the Pats were installed as underdogs by the betting markets.  Bill Belichick installed a radically different gameplan than most Pats fans (and their betting supporters) were used to.  New England played for extended stretches with six offensive linemen in power rushing formations, finishing the game with Read more

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers Las Vegas

NFL Gambling: Lions and Panthers top SuperContest picks for Week 16

12.21.2014     07:01 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 16 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. Detroit -6.5 at Chicago
2. Carolina +1.5 vs. Cleveland
3. Minnesota +6.5 at Miami
4. Denver -3 at Cincinnati
5. Arizona +8 vs. Seattle

Least Picked Sunday Side: Cleveland -1.5 at Carolina

Note that the Cleveland-Carolina line was released prior to Cam Newton being upgraded to probable.

Tags: NFL

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC Playoff Contenders

12.15.2014     08:12 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books and four teams have emerged as clear co-favorites to win the Super Bowl.  Green Bay and Seattle are at the top of the power ratings spectrum in the NFC while Denver and New England look poised for a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game.

In my Wiseguy Report over the next two weeks, I’m going to poke holes in every other team that is still alive in the playoff chase.  Can any of the fringe contenders knock off the favorites when January rolls around?  Read on to find out.  This week I’ll focus on the second tier contenders in the NFC, and next week, I’ll shift my focus to the AFC.

The Dallas Cowboys have looked good on national TV repeatedly this year.  They are a perfect 7-0 SU on the road, including impressive wins at Seattle and Philly.  But the Cowboys have at least one fundamental flaw – their defense isn’t much better than it was last year when the Cowboys ranked at or near the bottom of nearly every statistical category. 

In 2013, the Cowboys stop unit was ridiculed nationally, allowing 6.1 yards per play (ranked #30 out of 32 Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Alert: Sportsbooks adjust Carolina a field goal vs. Tampa Bay following Newton's injury

12.10.2014     02:19 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
WIth Cam Newton out following yesterday's car accident, the Carolina Panthers will start Derek Anderson vs. Tampa Bay. Prior to Newton's injury, the Panthers were 6-point favorites with a total of 43. Sportsbooks reopened the game -3 O/U 41.5. Anderson started in Week 1's 20-14 win over the Buccaneers in which he connected n 24-of-34 passes for 230 yards, 2 TDs, and no INTs.

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Gambling Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

11.13.2014     02:41 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Philadelphia at Green Bay
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Green Bay -5.5 O/U 56.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -6 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Green Bay -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Philadelphia

Green Bay is coming off a near perfect game, absolutely annihilating the Chicago Bears from start to finish.  Aaron Rodgers was at his best, tying the all time NFL record with six touchdown passes before halftime.  "We just kind of got things going our way. The line did a good job of giving me time to extend plays. If you extend plays, you look down the field and there's Jordy Nelson. He made some nice catches." That win improved the Packers record following a bye week under Mike McCarthy to 9-0 ATS. 

The last time the Packers played a near perfect game (destroying Carolina), they followed it up with a clunker the following week in New Orleans.  Following another near Read more

Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC News and Notes

11.03.2014     12:00 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re into November, just past the halfway point of the 2014 NFL season.  The truths that we learned in September aren’t proving to be quite so true now that the season has progressed.  In this week’s wiseguy report, we’ll take a quick tour around the NFC landscape, focusing on some hidden gems of knowledge from around the league.

With their dominating win on Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals are now 14-3 SU, 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 ballgames.  Only one of those three losses came by more than a field goal – their game at Denver, when third string rookie QB Logan Thomas was forced into action after injuries to Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton.

Yet the Cardinals statistical profile continues to confound wiseguy bettors.  Arizona went into their game at Dallas on Sunday with a -0.6 yards per play differential.  To put that number in perspective, the Oakland Raiders entered the weekend with a - 0.5 yards per play differential, the Jacksonville Jaguars had a -0.7 ypp differential.    And the Cards have been on the lucky end of the turnover equation this year, now +10 for the season after winning the Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers


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