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NFL Gambing Preview: Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans

11.14.2015     11:02 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Carolina at Tennessee
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Carolina -6.5 O/U 42.5
CRIS Current: Carolina -4 O/U 44
Recommendation: Tennessee

There are bad spots. There are really bad spots. And then there are truly horrific spots – unbettable spots – like the one the Panthers are in this Sunday.

I’ve been a Carolina supporter on multiple occasions in recent weeks, cashing several winning bets for myself and my clients in support of Ron Rivera’s squad. I know that the Panthers have been an undervalued commodity for most of the season. I know how good their defense is. I know that Cam Newton is better than his overall stats would indicate. This is not a bet based on disrespect for Carolina; not a chance.

But take a hard look at this spot for the Panthers. They came out of their bye and played a chippy, physical playoff revenge matchup at Seattle, rallying from two scores down in the fourth quarter to win; a maximum intensity game. The Panthers followed that up with an appearance on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles, another intense battle against an NFC Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Tennessee Titans Teddy Covers

Westgate Superbook nears completion

11.09.2015     07:13 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas' Westgate Superbook is still working on various renovations and upgrades including 220 feet worth of big screen TVs.

“It’s the biggest screen of this type you’ll see inside, anywhere,” Kornegay says, looking across the Superbook at a digital image of a rushing attempt by Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton. “This is part of the plan to not only have the biggest sports book in Las Vegas but the best.”

“This was the owner’s idea, right from the start,” Kornegay said. “During his first walk-through, he realized the book hadn’t been touched in a really long time.”

Tags: Las Vegas

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's five unbeatens

10.26.2015     07:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re nearing the halfway point of the NFL season and five teams still remain undefeated; an unusually high number of perfect teams at this stage of the campaign.  There’s not much debate with the betting community about how to rank the five remaining unbeatens.  The New England Patriots are power rated at least a field goal higher than any other team in the league right now.  Behind the Pats come the Green Bay Packers, followed closely by the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Denver Broncos rank #4 on this list; with Peyton Manning’s ongoing struggles carrying more weight than the Broncos elite level defensive stats in the current betting markets.  Last on the list is the Carolina Panthers, still searching for market respect even after their win and cover against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football.

My goal of this week’s Wiseguy Report is to break down these five teams in terms of my probability of them producing a profit over the final ten weeks of the regular season.  Is it possible to make money with ANY of these teams moving forward, or have the betting markets eclipsed any semblance of future value?  Read on to find Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Preview: Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers

09.16.2015     09:12 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Houston at Carolina
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Carolina -3.5 O/U 41
CRIS Current: Carolina -3 O/U 40
Recommendation: Under

The Texans were ambushed in the first half of their home opener by Kansas City last Sunday as the Chiefs scored on five consecutive possessions resulting in 27 points. In that mix were a pair of Houston turnovers (1 interception, 1 fumble) which set the Chiefs up in point blank range at the Texans’ 13- and 7-yard lines. Those turnovers cost Houston 14 points and in all, three of KC’s five scoring drives were 22 yards or less.

Houston’s second half performance was much cleaner on both sides of the ball as the offense did not commit a turnover and the defense pitched a shutout forcing four punts on Kansas City’s five possessions. The rally fell short but the Texans did get the once blowout to the point where Kansas City had to recover an onside kick to secure the 27-20 victory. Not really that bad for a game when you consider Houston’s average starting position was their own 19 while the Chiefs’ was their own 40. Read more

Tags: NFL Houston Texans Carolina Panthers Rob Veno

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Power Ratings 1-32

09.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The NFL regular season starts on Thursday.  Here’s how I have the 32 teams ranked heading into the campaign, with a quick blurb each squad.

1. New England Patriots - With Tom Brady set to open the season as the starting quarterback, the defending champs are the team to beat, worthy of my #1 ranking heading into the regular season.

2. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle enjoyed the best yards-per-rush differential between offense and defense last year, but they’ve got significant offensive line question marks as they head to St Louis for Week 1.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers passing game was second to none in the NFL last year, but the loss of Jordy Nelson leaves Aaron Rodgers without his top target for the entire season.

4. Indianapolis Colts - Most elite contenders face a tougher than average schedule because they’ve got to face other contending teams.  Indy, however, plays only four games against playoff teams from last year.

5. Denver Broncos - Peyton Manning is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL by a wide margin, and he’s coming off a season where his arm strength noticeably declined down the Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling: A look back at last year's 20* winner on Carolina Under 8.5 Wins

07.27.2015     08:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Below is Teddy Covers' write-up for last year's NFL Season O/U Wins Report 20* winner. Since 2001, Teddy has produced a documented record of 71-31 70% including 11-1 92% with his 20* Big Tickets. This year's report is currently available for purchase and will be released on Wednesday. Teddy includes in-depth written analysis on all of plays.

20* Big Ticket: Carolina UNDER 8.5 Wins
Just about everything broke right for the Carolina Panthers last year on their way to a 12-4 season.  Following a 1-3 start, the Panthers reeled off 11 wins in their final 12 regular season games in large part thanks to a 5-0 mark in games decided by four points or less. 

Make no mistake about it – the Panthers were every bit as lucky as they were good during that extended winning run.  Head coach Ron Rivera was on the hot seat, but he saved his job thanks to a ‘Riverboat Ron’ mentality down the stretch of tight games, a strategy that offers no hope of long term success.

And the Panthers feasted largely on the weak, with

Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Drafting quarterbacks in the first round

05.04.2015     08:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
To QB or not to QB; that is the question. And when it comes to breaking down the NFL Draft, those QB questions stand paramount.

Jameis Winston was loaded with character questions; a QB with a lack of maturity and poor decision making off the field made his tenure in Tallahassee controversial, to say the least.  Marcus Mariota didn’t have those same character concerns but he can’t match Winston’s full skill set either – there was no ‘Manning- Leaf debate’ over who would go #1 overall between the two prospects.  And yet that duo was drafted #1 and #2 overall by the Bucs and Titans in the NFL draft this past weekend.

There are two basic schools of thought when it comes to taking a QB with a first round pick in the NFL Draft.  One thought is that high draft choice QB busts set the franchise back, often for years.  There are as many (or more) busts as there are QBs that develop into effective starters.  Wasting a first round pick on a QB that doesn’t pan out – particularly when reaching or trading up to acquire the pick – can be nothing short of devastating for a franchise.  Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Conference Championship matchups are set

01.12.2015     07:52 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The NFL has never embraced the Final Four moniker, but that’s exactly what we’ve got left in this NFL season.  Four teams.  Three remaining meaningful games (sorry, I’m not counting the pro bowl as meaningful, even if you choose to wager on it).  One champion, yet to be crowned.

And there’s one strong commonality among the four teams still standing after two weekends of NFL Playoff action.   Each of the four teams still standing is there because of their quarterback.  As the league has adjusted their rules year by year, making it more difficult to defend the passing game, the very best QB’s have taken advantage of those rule changes, making them nearly impossible to defend.

Bettors probably remember the Patriots gameplan when they travelled to Indy in Week 11; one of four games this year where the Pats were installed as underdogs by the betting markets.  Bill Belichick installed a radically different gameplan than most Pats fans (and their betting supporters) were used to.  New England played for extended stretches with six offensive linemen in power rushing formations, finishing the game with Read more

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers Las Vegas

NFL Gambling: Lions and Panthers top SuperContest picks for Week 16

12.21.2014     07:01 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 16 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. Detroit -6.5 at Chicago
2. Carolina +1.5 vs. Cleveland
3. Minnesota +6.5 at Miami
4. Denver -3 at Cincinnati
5. Arizona +8 vs. Seattle

Least Picked Sunday Side: Cleveland -1.5 at Carolina

Note that the Cleveland-Carolina line was released prior to Cam Newton being upgraded to probable.

Tags: NFL

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC Playoff Contenders

12.15.2014     08:12 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books and four teams have emerged as clear co-favorites to win the Super Bowl.  Green Bay and Seattle are at the top of the power ratings spectrum in the NFC while Denver and New England look poised for a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game.

In my Wiseguy Report over the next two weeks, I’m going to poke holes in every other team that is still alive in the playoff chase.  Can any of the fringe contenders knock off the favorites when January rolls around?  Read on to find out.  This week I’ll focus on the second tier contenders in the NFC, and next week, I’ll shift my focus to the AFC.

The Dallas Cowboys have looked good on national TV repeatedly this year.  They are a perfect 7-0 SU on the road, including impressive wins at Seattle and Philly.  But the Cowboys have at least one fundamental flaw – their defense isn’t much better than it was last year when the Cowboys ranked at or near the bottom of nearly every statistical category. 

In 2013, the Cowboys stop unit was ridiculed nationally, allowing 6.1 yards per play (ranked #30 out of 32 Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers


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