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September

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Ranking all 32 NFL teams heading into Week 1

09.06.2016     08:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL Preseason is in the rear view mirror, with Week 1 kicking off on Thursday as Carolina travels to Denver as -3 road favorites.  Here’s how I have all 32 teams ranked heading into the regular season.

1. Carolina Panthers  - Cam Newton and Carolina’s offense are poised to rank among the most potent attacks in the NFL.  Watch out for the Funchess/Benjamin WR duo!

2. Seattle Seahawks - Russell Wilson gave an MVP caliber performance in 2015, but his ability to repeat that effort could be stunted by the Seahawks offensive line woes.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers come out of camp with a full complement of healthy weapons for Aaron Rodgers, good news after Rodgers numbers took a big hit without Jordy Nelson last year.

4. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona returns just about every key player on both sides of the ball from a team that ranked among the NFL’s elite in 2015.

5. New England Patriots - If Tom Brady was at quarterback, this team would be ranked #1.  But with Jimmy Garappolo behind center, the Pats take a modest tumble in my rankings.

6. Kansas City Chiefs - Andy Reid’s Read more



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Denver Broncos Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the NFC South

06.27.2016     09:11 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Continuing my summertime tour through the eight NFL divisions, this week, I’ll be taking an in-depth look at the four NFC South teams.  As always, teams are listed in alphabetical order within the division.

The Atlanta Falcons (lined at 7 or 7.5 wins for 2016, depending on the book) went 6-1 SU to open the season last year, but stumbled down the stretch with a 2-7 finish, finishing the season with an improved, yet still disappointing 8-8 SU record.  They were money losers (6-10 ATS, including a 2-10 slide to close out the campaign) despite their two win improvement from 2014 to 2015.  That came on the heels of a two win improvement (from four to six victories) from 2013 to 2014. 

The Falcons mainstream stats show one clear weakness from 2015, despite facing one of the easier scheduled in the NFL last year.  Their 30 giveaways ranked among the bottom five teams in the NFL at avoiding turnovers.  They finished +0.0 yards per play, (obviously) right at the league average with the #7 ranked offense and the #16 ranked defense based on yardage numbers.   Both coordinators return from last year’s Read more



Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: The Secret Truth About the NFL

04.25.2016     08:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Everybody is talking about quarterbacks, with the NFL draft upcoming, starting on Thursday.  In recent weeks, both the St Louis Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles paid a steep price to move up to #1 and #2. The expectations are that California's Jared Goff and North Dakota State's Carson Wentz will go with the top two picks, although their draft order is still up in the air. 

If things go well with those two picks, the Rams and Eagles will be set up for the long term with above average quarterbacks.  If things go poorly with those two picks, the Rams and Eagles will be steady, consistent losers until the next time they draft a QB in the first round.  In fact, that’s exactly where the Rams have just been since they picked Sam Bradford #1 overall back in 2010.

The advanced metric pundits are all screaming bad deal for the two teams that traded up, and great deal for the two teams that traded down (Tennessee and Cleveland).  And the history of QB’s going #1 and #2 in the draft hasn’t seen two above average quarterbacks in those spots since 1971. 

Here’s the list:
2015- Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the early season MLB betting markets

04.11.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Matt Harvey lost again on Sunday, with the Mets priced as high as -280 here in Las Vegas.  Chris Archer leads the majors in strikeouts, while King Felix ranks second as I write this early Monday morning. Their two teams -- Tampa and Seattle -- teams are a combined 0-4 in the four starts from those two aces.   I closed out last week writing about how betting on aces – the guys that advanced metrics really, truly love – has evolved into a negative expectation wager over the last few years.  The quants have emerged as the dominating force in the MLB betting marketplace and there’s no way that I’ve uncovered to beat them at their own game.

So, I’ve been focusing on the opening week of the MLB season with an anti-quant mentality, looking to take advantage of what the betting markets are undervaluing, not overvaluing.  If the markets are too tilted towards starting pitching, that leaves three areas that aren’t appropriately priced, in my opinion – lineups, bullpens and streaks. 

There’s already early season action for streak bettors, with the Orioles winning while the Twins and Braves keep Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Super Bowl 50 Prop Bet Pick: Carolina Panthers Player Rushing Attempts

02.04.2016     07:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Carolina Over 4.5 players to get a Rush Attempt  (+140 Superbook)
Jonathan Stewart will be the starting running back.  Cam Newton had at least three rushing attempts in every game, averaging just shy of eight per contest.  Fullback Mike Tolbert had at least one rush in 17 of the Panthers 18 games; at least two rushes in 16 of those games.  Those three are virtual ‘locks’ to get a carry.

But at least four other Panthers have a decent shot to get a carry on Sunday, making the Over 4.5 a worthy wager at this attractive plus price.  I wrote up my rational for Ted Ginn above.  Corey Brown is another speedster, with six rushing attempts during the regular season, five of which gained seven yards or more.  Backup RB Cameron Artis Payne had 36 carries in four games down the stretch, and he’s certainly could to see the field here after missing the NFC Championship Game.  And third down back Fozzy Whittaker, banged up down the stretch, is ‘live’ to get a carry (or two, or three) as well.  Whittaker had 16 carries in their final four regular season games and two more in the NFC title Read more



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Carolina Panthers Super Bowl 50 Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early primer on betting Super Bowl 50

01.25.2016     08:53 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Super Bowl 50 matchup is set.   In the end, second best didn’t cut it.  The team with the very best defense in the NFL this season – Denver – won a pair of tight home playoff games against banged up foes to return to the big game for the second time in three seasons.  The Broncos are set to face the team with the very best quarterback in the NFL this season – Carolina, with Cam Newton behind center; a Panthers team that finished with the best record in the league. 

The best quarterback vs. the best defense!  We saw this two years ago, when Peyton Manning set records with his play, but Manning tailed off down the stretch and the Seattle Seahawks elite defense controlled the flow right from the get-go in the biggest Super Bowl Blowout of the 21st century.

The irony here, of course, is that two years ago, Denver was here due to Peyton Manning, and they lost the Super Bowl to the league’s best defensive team.  Only two years later, Denver is here because THEY have the best defense in the NFL, facing off against an emerging yet elite dual threat quarterback.  That defense didn’t perform Read more



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers Super Bowl 50




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Conference Championship Preview

01.18.2016     09:37 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
March Madness has a lock on the Final Four terminology, but we’re down to the final four teams standing in the NFL Playoffs following a wild weekend of football.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a look at how the Final Four teams still standing this NFL season survived, and what their realistic chances of Super Bowl success are moving forward into the Conference Championship Games this coming weekend.

Denver was outgained by more than two full yards per PLAY against the Steelers.  It was not vintage Peyton Manning, to put it mildly: 37 pass attempts for 215 yards, with only two passes all afternoon gaining more than 15 yards.  If you were watching the game, you already know how many missed connections that Manning had with his receivers – no shortage of inaccurate passes and dropped balls.  With the exception of one explosive 34-yard run by CJ Anderson, Denver’s running game wasn’t much better.  Anderson and Ronnie Hillman’s other 30 carries combined for just 76 yards.

But the Broncos avoided mistakes, playing turnover free football; the first time as a starter all season in which Manning Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Denver Broncos Arizona Cardinas Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Narrowing down the Super Bowl 50 contenders

12.28.2015     08:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This is my last Wiseguy Report of the year.  That leaves me with two choices – a look back column or a look forward one. I’m a big fan of post-mortems following every NFL betting week; looking to learn from both winners and losers.  But when it comes to looking back over a whole season or a full year?  It’s harder (for me at least) to learn lessons in the aggregate; much easier when I condense those lessons down to individual games. 

After all, that’s what a season is – dozens of individual betting decisions; made one at a time.  So, while I’ve enjoyed one of the best NFL seasons of my handicapping career, there’s no point in looking back.

Sure, we can identify the worst beat of the year, that’s always fun.  I’d nominate anyone who had Lions and Under when they led Green Bay wire-to-wire on Thursday Night Football….until Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary touchdown pass with no time left on the clock that turned Lions and Under into Packers and Over.  Apologies to anyone who had St Louis plus the points at Green Bay in Week 5, a close second on my list.  But the better way Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambing Preview: Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans

11.14.2015     11:02 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Carolina at Tennessee
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Carolina -6.5 O/U 42.5
CRIS Current: Carolina -4 O/U 44
Recommendation: Tennessee

There are bad spots. There are really bad spots. And then there are truly horrific spots – unbettable spots – like the one the Panthers are in this Sunday.

I’ve been a Carolina supporter on multiple occasions in recent weeks, cashing several winning bets for myself and my clients in support of Ron Rivera’s squad. I know that the Panthers have been an undervalued commodity for most of the season. I know how good their defense is. I know that Cam Newton is better than his overall stats would indicate. This is not a bet based on disrespect for Carolina; not a chance.

But take a hard look at this spot for the Panthers. They came out of their bye and played a chippy, physical playoff revenge matchup at Seattle, rallying from two scores down in the fourth quarter to win; a maximum intensity game. The Panthers followed that up with an appearance on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles, another intense battle against an NFC Read more



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Tennessee Titans Teddy Covers




Westgate Superbook nears completion

11.09.2015     07:13 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas' Westgate Superbook is still working on various renovations and upgrades including 220 feet worth of big screen TVs.


“It’s the biggest screen of this type you’ll see inside, anywhere,” Kornegay says, looking across the Superbook at a digital image of a rushing attempt by Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton. “This is part of the plan to not only have the biggest sports book in Las Vegas but the best.”

“This was the owner’s idea, right from the start,” Kornegay said. “During his first walk-through, he realized the book hadn’t been touched in a really long time.”






Tags: Las Vegas



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September

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 30, 2016 08:09 AM.