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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early season college football money burners

09.28.2015     08:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in my Wiseguy Report, I look an in-depth look at the 13 teams that started the college football season 3-0 ATS.   In general, those teams had quite a few commonalities:

“Non-descript teams that aren’t getting much hype or love from the preseason betting markets, the preseason publications or the preseason talking heads.  Teams coming off a bad bowl loss or a late season collapse are definitely worth an extra look, as are teams replacing an experienced, but perhaps underachieving, quarterback.”

I concluded the article with this paragraph: “These early season ATS outliers are NOT likely to continue their red hot runs.  The under-the-radar concept when it comes to finding strong ATS teams in early season play holds sway when it comes to early season results as well.  Many, if not most, of the elite ATS teams in college football this year have already lost at least once against the spread, putting them squarely under-the-radar as potential elite ATS squads moving forward."

If you bet on all 13 of the teams that entered last weekend with a 3-0 ATS mark, you lost money.  Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

College Football Handicapping: Early line moves for Week 9

10.21.2014     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Quick look at some of the early moves in the Week 9 college football betting markets.

Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech
CRIS Opener: Virginia Tech -3
CRIS Current: Miami (FL) -3
Comment: Miami comes in off of a bye week. Last time Hokies were a home dog: vs. Florida State 11/8/2012. FSU won 28-22 but failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites.

Central Michigan at Buffalo
CRIS Opener: Central Michigan -3
CRIS Current: Central Michigan -4.5
Comment: Bulls off a bye week and the firing of head coach Jeff Quinn. OC Alex Wood takes over. Off win at Northern Illinois, CMU coughs it up five times in loss to Ball State.

Kent State at Miami (OH)
CRIS Opener: Miami (OH) -5.5
CRIS Current: Miami (OH) -7.5
Comment: RedHawks' lone win of the season came by one point over UMass. Kent off its first win (39-17 vs. Army). Two of the Golden Flashes' MAC losses came by a field goal.

Temple at UCF
CRIS Opener: UCF -11
CRIS Current: UCF -8
Comment: Temple was +8 in turnover margin before -4 mark in 31-10 loss at Houston. UCF's last three wins came Read more

Tags: College Football

College Footbal Betting Preview: UCF Knights at Missouri Tigers

09.11.2014     06:23 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Central Florida at Missouri
Saturday, 9 am PT - SEC
CRIS Opener:
Missouri -10 O/U 56
CRIS CUrrent: Missouri -10 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Missouri -5
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Central Florida

I appear to have a totally different opinion on Missouri compared to oddsmakers and other bettors. Last week Mizzou stood out as my top power ratings play of the week, yet the opening line reflected a much different opinion. From there the pro-Toledo and anti-Missouri money poured in and left Missouri -3 at game time. The dominant Tigers performance seems to have them back in the good graces of the betting community because they are listed at -10 this week in a game which my power ratings show them to be -5.

Central Florida is off a bye week after losing a close one to Penn State in Ireland in Week 1. The extra time has helped to heal injuries for key personnel like starting RB Read more

Tags: College Football UCF Knights AAC Missouri Tigers SEC Rob Veno

College Basketball Handicapping: UCF's looking to play younger players

02.12.2014     11:23 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Central Florida at Memphis -13.5 O/U 145.5

Losers of eight straight (1-7 ATS), UCF head coach Donnie Jones hinted of a youth movement – at least for the rest of the regular season. In last Sunday's 75-55 loss at UConn, UCF's starters played 31, 20, 18, 18 and 14 minutes.

“You focus on positive,” Jones said after his team’s most recent 75-55 loss to Connecticut. “That’s all you can focus on right now with some of these young guys. We were committed to starting those older guys and getting those young guys a chance. So, you look at the bench and I think we scored 34 points off the bench and that was with our young guys.”

Tags: College Basketball UCF Knights Memphis Tigers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Basketball Pointspread Underachievers

02.10.2014     07:56 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week I wrote about the four best pointspread teams in the country in college hoops this year – Cleveland State, Villanova, Wichita State and Utah. Between the four, they combined to go 7-1 ATS over the past week, continuing to cover spreads even after doing so consistently for the past three months. In other words, the markets still haven’t caught up with these teams.

This week, I’m taking the opposite approach; examining the very worst pointspread teams in all of college basketball. Why are they so bad against the spread? Will they continue to be money losers as February rolls into March? And what statistical profile do these teams have in common that will help us identify them as early as possible next year? Let’s take a look!

I did a version of this column last year at this same time (second week of February). At that time, the single worst pointspread team in all of college basketball was Indiana-Purdue Indianapolis, abbreviated IUPUI. This year, IUPUI isn’t the single worst pointspread team in college hoops only because they’re tied with South Alabama and LaSalle at the bottom of the ATS Read more

Tags: College Basketball IUPUI Jaugars South Alabama Jaguars UCF Knights Notre Dame Fighting Irish Boston College Eagles Pittsburgh Panthers Purdue Boilermakers Teddy Covers

College Football Handicapping: Early thoughts on Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, BCS and more

12.11.2013     07:38 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Rose Bowl / Rose Bowl / Pasadena, CA
255 Michigan State
256 Stanford -2 (Power Rating)

Game Opened: Stanford -3 Total Not posted
Current Line: Stanford -4 or -4.5 Total Not yet posted

Early Thoughts
1. Obviously a battle of mirror images as similar style offenses and arguably the nation’s toughest defenses meet. Both teams are extremely happy to be in this game which should equate to 60 minutes of full effort from each side.   
2. Can’t help but feel the edge in this game goes to Stanford because they’ve produced equally stellar defensive results against far superior offensive competition. Indiana, Nebraska and Ohio State are the best offenses MSU faced this season and they allowed 28, 28, and 24 points to those teams for an average of 26.7 per game. The Spartans overall defensive numbers are somewhat skewed by the seven lousy offenses they played.             

3. The passing game and offensive line will be vital to each team’s success and probably determine the Read more

Tags: College Football Rob Veno

College Football Handicapping: Week 4 Injury Report

09.19.2013     11:44 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Texas QB David Ash remains a question mark (concussion) this week vs. Kansas State. In a 44-23 home loss to Ole Miss, back-up Case McCoy completed 24-of-36 passes for 196 yards and one TD without an interception.  Also, the Longhorns’ best WR Mike Davis is questionable due to a sprained ankle. Davis has hauled in 20 catches for 222 yards and four TDs in just three games. 

Mississippi State senior quarterback Tyler Russell is doubtful for Saturday’s home game vs. Troy. Russell threw for 2,897 yards with a 24-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season, but he might have a difficult time getting his starting job back. In his absence, Dak Prescott has played well. Prescott provides more of a running dimension, rushing for 134 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s heartbreaking loss at Auburn. He completed 15-of-28 passes for 213 yards on The Plains. 

Minnesota quarterback Philip Nelson is questionable vs. San Jose due to a strained hamstring. Nelson is an excellent scrambler so a hamstring issue could diminish his effectiveness more than it would most other quarterbacks. He has rushed for 221 yards and three TDs in leading Read more

Tags: College Football Brian Edwards

College Football Handicapping: First half and second half totals

09.11.2013     02:57 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
The growing popularity of first half and halftime betting indicated to me that it was something I needed to begin charting. Last season was the first one in which I kept complete records and now three weeks into 2013 it seems like a good time to use this week’s article on examining some early team results.  

Extreme Teams: (Teams that have had the same result in all four halves thus far)

Central Florida – The Knights have used their defense and lack of opponents’ offense through two games to record unders in each of their four halves of play. On paper it seems as if they should have been able to at least record one over since their totals haven’t been set that high and their skill position players and offensive line have held dominant advantages. However, their defense has simple been lights out allowing just 4.2 and 3.5 yards per play in their first two games. They’ve also been in a sizeable lead position at halftime which has led them to play methodical, clock draining second half football. This week presents their first real test as they travel to Penn State which possesses a Read more

Tags: College Football Rob Veno USC Trojans Florida Atlantic Owls Central Florida Knights

College Football Handicapping: Ball State QB Wenning expected to start vs. Central Florida

12.21.2012     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Ball State vs. Central Florida -7.5 O/U 61.5

Ball State quarterback Keith Wenning appears ready to go for tonight's Beef O'Brady Bowl matchup against Central Florida. Wenning missed the team's regular season finale with an ankle injury. 

"I anticipate he'll start," Ball State coach Pete Lembo said Thursday. "That doesn't mean that (backup) Kelly Page won't play, but if we kicked off at this minute, Keith would start the game."

"Today it felt good, the best it's felt since the injury," Wenning said Wednesday. "Every day it gets better, and hopefully it keeps progressing. It is what it is, but it feels good. ... With adrenaline, I don't think it's going to be a problem."

Tags: College Football Ball State Cardinals MAC Central Florida Knights C-USA

Beef O'Brady's Bowl Betting Preview: Ball State Cardinals vs. Central Florida Knights

12.18.2012     07:43 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno


Beef O'Brady's Bowl - St. Petersburg, Fla.
Friday, December 21, 4:30 pm PT - ESPN
Ball State vs. Central Florida
CRIS Opener:
Central Florida -7.5 O/U 63
CRIS Current: Central Florida -7 (-115) O/U 62
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Central Florida -8

There’s an interesting but not uncommon dilemma for Ball State heading into this contest. Some players have openly addressed the very disjointed schedule they’ve been on since their regular season finale against Miami (OH). Final exams, the long layoff between games, sporadic practices, coaches intermittent appearances on campus due to recruiting trips, and talk of hitting the beach are all distractions from Ball State’s normal in-season routine. However, when you get down to the root of the team mindsets for this game it seems pretty clear. This invite is a great post season prize for Ball State and a Read more

Tags: College Football Ball State Cardinals MAC Central Florida Knights C-USA Rob Veno


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