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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Week 1 lines and the upcoming draft
04.22.2013 08:15 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
It’s time to give Jay Kornegay and his staff at the LVH Superbook credit once again for being the first to market here in Las Vegas with Week 1 NFL numbers. Don’t tell me Kornegay wasn’t ready! The NFL announced the 2013 schedule last Thursday evening, and the LVH had their sides and totals posted by noon on Friday. For an older, non-strip property that lacks a marque signature attraction, Kornegay’s aggressive bookmaking tactics have, quite frankly, allowed the LVH to remain relevant in a difficult era for many similar aging off-strip casinos.
When those Week 1 pointspreads were posted, bettors didn’t flock to the betting windows to lock up their money until September with a wager. In fact, the betting marketplace gave a collective yawn, with only a handful of big bets written over the weekend on sides or totals. Why the lack of initial movement? Two reasons!
First, Jay put up good numbers. There were no obvious “mistake” lines causing a flurry of betting activity. And secondly – probably most importantly – we haven’t seen competing books put up alternate
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NFL Gambling Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
12.13.2012 01:57 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Indianapolis
at
Houston
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Indianapolis
CRIS Opener:
Houston -8 O/U 49
CRIS Current:
Houston -9 O/U 48
Teddy's Power Rating:
Houston -8
The Texans are a paper tiger, a fraud. They spent much of the season beating up on the weak, and even those wins haven't come easily of late. Jacksonville (2-11) scored 37 against the Texans stop unit, making Chad Henne look like a pro bowler with 354 yards and four touchdowns off the bench. They managed to beat Detroit (4-9) in OT only because Lions head coach Jim Schwartz threw an illegal challenge flag that resulted in an 81-yard touchdown that should never have been. Against the Titans’ miserable defense, the Texans managed only five first downs in the entire second half. And we all saw what happened on MNF when Houston traveled to New England – a complete, confidence sapping
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Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Dissecting the NFL's bottom feeders
11.19.2012 12:26 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Over the last few weeks, I’ve been watching the contenders from both conferences closely. This week, I turned my focus towards the bottom feeders; teams that some folks have been calling ‘dead’ in recent weeks.
With six games remaining on the slate for every NFL team, there’s still plenty of time to make money fading the teams that have quit on their coach and their season. And there’s most definitely an opportunity to make money with last place teams IF they play with passion and precision down the stretch.
Here’s my take on four teams that entered Sunday’s games in last place in their respective divisions.
Kansas City
- We're 11 weeks into the season, and this sorry Chiefs offense hasn't improved one iota. There's talent to work with – Jamal Charles and Peyton Hillis make a decent 'thunder and lightning' duo running the football. Dwayne Bowe, Tony Moeaki, Dexter McCluster and Steve Breaston have all enjoyed past success as playmaking pass catchers, although Bowe got hurt early and wasn’t a factor here.
But the same two issues that have plagued KC all year haven't gone
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets
Teddy Covers
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NFL Betting News: Jacksonville's Chad Henne gets start vs. Tennessee
11.19.2012 12:11 PM
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Tennessee
-3 at
Jacksonville
O/U 43.5
Jacksonville announced that
Chad Henne will start
against Tennessee. Henne filled in for an injured Blaine Gabbert and threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns in last week's 43-37 overtime loss to Houston. A lot of folks have been calling for Henne to step in for weeks. Now that they got their wish, we’ll go ahead and predict something along the lines of
this
for Henne on Sunday.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: A look at second-year NFL quarterbacks and their teams
09.17.2012 06:10 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I focused on the five rookie starting quarterbacks behind center on opening day. This Sunday, continuing the theme, I spent the afternoon watching the five quarterbacks drafted in the first 35 picks last year, all of whom are now starters. I tried to evaluate each QB within the context of his team – they can't be successful without the complimentary pieces of the equation surrounding them, both on offense and on defense. Here are my thoughts:
Cincinnati Bengals
– Andy Dalton was the only rookie QB to lead his team to the playoffs last year, and he’s definitely right there with Cam Newton as the best of the 2011 draft class right now. He’s got great footwork in the pocket; nimble on his feet while sidestepping pressure. And when we consider how much pressure he was under – the Bengals injury riddled line was really struggling unable to consistently run or pass block – Dalton’s performance was even that much more impressive.
This team is loaded with WR talent; not just AJ Green, although Green is really developing into a Top 10 NFL receiver. Armon Binns made plays all over the field today;
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers' AFC South Gambling Preview
08.02.2012 12:43 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Houston Texans
After nearly a decade of trying to get over the hump, the Texans finally broke through last year, going 10-6, winning the AFC South and even winning a playoff game. All that despite an injury plagued season that saw many of their top players go down for extended stretches.
Houston was a money winner for their supporters, thanks to a 9-5-2 ATS mark. They outgained their opponents by 0.9 yards per play, tied for second best in the NFL, and finished with a +7 turnover margin. The Texans were an Under team in 2011, cashing at a 10-6 clip.
But before we get carried away with all of the success, let’s not ignore that the Texans beat up on a very weak slate of opponents. Houston faced third easiest schedule in the NFL based on my numbers – numbers based on my power rating of their opponents for the week that the game was played.
2012 Issues:
Houston has fairly good continuity from last year to this year. Head coach Gary Kubiak and both coordinators return, most notably defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Phillips took a defense that had been ranked dead
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Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Teddy Covers
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NFL Playoffs Free Betting Pick: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
01.15.2012 06:21 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Houston
at
Baltimore
-7.5 O/U 36.5
Recommendation: Over
Both defenses in this matchup are a good notch or two overrated, giving us a prime opportunity to pounce betting the Ravens-Texans OVER the total on Sunday. When these two teams met during the regular season, the total was sitting at 43.5; more than a full TD higher than it is today. That game flew OVER the total despite the fact that the Ravens repeatedly settled for field goals. Out of eleven Baltimore possessions, the Ravens produced seven scores while punting only twice. That makes the current total look too low for this bettor!
Houston learned their lesson in their late season loss to the Colts, a game where they did not trust rookie QB TJ Yates to throw downfield. Since that defeat, the Texans have come out firing – back-2-back games in the 40’s – taking the reins off Yates while making a finally healthy Andre Johnson a bigger part of the offense. Baltimore’s defense was strong
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Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans
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Handicapper Teddy Covers: Week 14 AFC Betting News and Notes
12.12.2011 07:00 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC News and Notes from Week 14.
San Diego
How does a team that has marched down the field and scored on their opening drive in each of the last seven weeks be sitting in last place at the start of the game? Simple – they don't carry any of that early momentum forward – once the scripted plays run out, so does the offense! And there's a character issue here as well – when their opponent punches, the Chargers don't seem to punch back very well. But San Diego finally punched back here after the Bills cut the lead to six following yet another unforced Philip Rivers error, with a TD drive followed by a pick six to retake control of the game. That's a very positive sign for a team that still believes they can sneak into the playoffs. For as rough as Philip Rivers' season has been, he came into the game leading the NFL in
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San Diego Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Miami Dolphins
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Teddy Covers: Week 2 AFC Betting News and Notes
09.19.2011 09:15 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps simply don’t have. This week: AFC Tidbits from Week 2.
Cincinnati
: The offensive play calling was downright stupid. Jay Gruden crashed and burned as an Arena Football coach; I was shocked he got the offensive coordinator job here. Gruden spent the first 40 minutes calling one predictable play after the next – running to the left side and throwing safe five-yard check down passes. Hello, Champ Bailey is hurt and you've got speedy downfield weapons!! The Bengals were completely inept in third-and-short situations – three times in the first half, they had 3rd-and-1 or shorter, three times they failed to convert. Their first and only third down conversion for the entire game came after the two
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Cincinnati Bengals
Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos
Baltimore Ravens
Miami Dolphins
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
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NFL Week 2 Gambling Previews by Fairway Jay
09.18.2011 07:06 AM
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We enter Week 2 off a 3-1 Sunday and look to duplicate or even improve on our results with the experience and stats of Week 1 games to analyze and review. Many bettors and especially the public overreact to Week 1 results with the influence of a good or bad performance from just one week of action impacting their decisions. With so much excitement and anticipation for the season, you’re wise to temper your enthusiasm and understand both the good and bad breaks that can happen in the NFL. After all, we suffered the toughest total loss in Week 1 action when incredibly the 49ers and Seahawks went over the total after two horrible offensive performances. They combined for just 26 points and less than 370 yards through 54 minutes of action before the meltdown.
On to Week 2 and here are some thoughts and analysis, along with ATS situations that may help you to play on, against or perhaps pass on a game based on information you may not have known.
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