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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early season NBA betting trends

12.01.2014     12:13 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re more than a month into the young NBA season, and there are numerous trends that have begun to rear their heads, offering the potential for continued returns throughout the course of the season.  In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll be putting some of these early season teams and angles that have been moneymakers thusfar under the microscope, assessing their potential continued profitability as the calendar turns to December.

Let me start with a pair of totals trends that have been cashing winning bet after winning bet through the first month of the campaign.  The high scoring, no-defense  Houston Rockets are 14-3 to the Under, followed closely by Oklahoma City at 13-4 to the Under.  Oklahoma City’s Under run makes more short term sense – they’ve been playing without their two superstars Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, although Westbrook returned to the lineup last w eek and Durant is expected to follow in the near future.  The Thunder have relied heavily on their defense, slowing down the pace and keeping opponents out of the paint with Serge Ibaka and seven footers Kendrick Perkins and Steven Read more

Tags: NBA Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Underdogs have owned the NBA Playoffs

04.28.2014     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Seven of the eight first round NBA Playoff series have proven to be competitive – only the Miami Heat have a commanding 3-0 series lead in their series over the Charlotte Bobcats.   After an opening weekend that saw underdogs go 6-2 ATS, 5-3 SU, the prevailing trend of upsets continued throughout the last week.

The current numbers are quite striking.  Pointspread favorites are a woeful 7-21-2 ATS through the first 30 playoff games.  In fact the favored team is just 14-16 SU – underdog moneyline bettors have been feasting over the first nine days of playoff action.  Therefore, it’s no surprise that the lower seeded team has the series lead in the Spurs-Mavs, Wizards-Bulls and Blazers-Rockets series, with potentially live underdogs still in play for Grizzles-Thunder, Warriors-Clippers, Nets-Raptors, and Pacers-Hawks.

What gives?  Why have the dogs covered at a 75% clip through the first 30 Playoff games?   Let’s start with the simple premise that the top seeds are more vulnerable than the markets expected while the lower seeds have proven to be no pushovers.

The #1 seeds (Pacers and Spurs) Read more

Tags: NBA Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Recapping NBA Playoff Game 1's

04.21.2014     08:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
There were eight opening round NBA Playoff Series that started this past weekend.  The lower seeded road teams – all underdogs in Game 1 – went 6-2 ATS, including five outright upset winners.  There were four games that flew Over the total, three that stayed Under and one (Miami-Charlotte) that finished right in between the opening and closing total.

This is just the start of a two month NBA Playoff marathon, and those Game 1’s may not be indicative of how these opening round series are likely to play out.  Here are some key note and quotes for each series following those Game 1’s.

Miami looked sluggish and lethargic for extended stretches of their opener against Charlotte, but took over the game with an 18-4 run in the fourth quarter when LeBron James was sitting on the bench.  Head coach Erik Spoelstra:  “We were flat to start. I think our guys were just anxious."  LeBron: “That group that was in once I took that break at the 10-minute mark in the fourth quarter, they just bumped the lead. Obviously, to have three Hall of Famers in the game when I'm out of the game, CB, D-Wade and Ray Read more

Tags: NBA Miami Heat Charlotte Bobcats San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks Atlanta Hawks Indiana Pacers Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Charlotte Bobcats at Brooklyn Nets

03.19.2014     08:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Charlotte +6 at Brooklyn O/U 194
Recommendation: Charlotte

My clients and I have been making money supporting Charlotte all year, and tonight’s game provides another rock solid opportunity to cash a winning bet with this ATS juggernaut.  After all, the Bobcats are currently ranked #3 in the NBA (behind Phoenix and Toronto) for profitability this year. And Charlotte is in excellent current form, winners of four of five and six of eight.  That stretch includes wins over fellow playoff contenders Indiana, Minnesota and Washington.

But Charlotte was a no-show at home against Atlanta on Monday Night, losing by 14 in their worst shooting performance in any game since November.  Steve Cliffford’s squad is 9-3 SU in their last dozen tries coming off a loss, including wins over likely playoff teams, like the Pacers, Wizards, Mavs, Warriors and Raptors in this role.  And Charlotte has been nothing short of outstanding as a short underdog; 8-0 ATS in Read more

Tags: NBA Charlotte Bobcats Brooklyn Nets Teddy Covers

NBA Gambling Trends: Historical numbers point towards Detroit Pistons

02.19.2014     07:44 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Detroit at Charlotte -2.5 O/U 201

Found this interesting and profitable NBA betting profile for tonight's Detroit-Charlotte game. The two teams hooked up last night in Detroit, with the Bobcats prevailing, 108-96. In these unique same opponent, back-to-back situations, when the home teams loses the first game they are an impressive 31-13 ATS in the road in the rematch. Note that the average line of the profile was +6.5. The trend suggests that teams who pick up the road win tend to suffer a letdown the following night.

Tags: NBA Detroit Pistons Charlotte Bobcats

NBA Handicapping: Western Conference has covered at 56% clip vs. Eastern Conference

02.07.2014     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The always candid Jeff Van Gundy called out much of the Eastern Conference for "choosing to be bad" and the gap between the Western Conference being massive. On a related note, Charlotte is one Eastern team that doesn't see tanking as an option. This year, Western Conference teams are 178-95 (65.2%) straight up and 152-119-2 (56.1%) vs. the Eastern Conference. There are six Western vs. Eastern matchups tonight.

"It doesn't necessarily mean the guys on the floor aren't trying hard, but it means teams have put some really bad rosters on the floor," Van Gundy said. "A lot of teams right now are happy with losing and that's really too bad for the league. That's too bad for the fans."

Tags: NBA

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets

01.31.2014     10:07 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Toronto +2 at Denver O/U 205
Recommendation: Toronto

The Raptors continue to get the job done, while boasting the third best record in the Eastern Conference. However, on closer examination they’ve played better than their overall 24-21 record would indicate. In fact, over their last 25 games the Raptors show a 17-8 record, which directly correlates to their trade of Rudy Gay. The Raptors have succeeded because their defense now features a fair amount of toughness. Of course, strong chemistry, ball movement, and unselfish play also have contributed to their up-tick in play. Point guard Kyle Lowry has lead the way and I expect the savvy guard to play with an extra chip on his shoulder tonight. Lowry was snubbed from All-Star team and there’s no question he’s playing at an All-Star level. Meanwhile, he’ll own all the advantages at the point guard spot tonight as the Nuggets figure to be without their two point guards. Nate Robinson is definitely out with a possible Read more

Tags: NBA Toronto Raptors Denver Nuggets Erin Rynning

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Charlotte Bobcats at Orlando Magic

01.17.2014     10:25 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Charlotte -1 at Orlando O/U 190
Recommendation: Charlotte

Charlotte’s goal heading into the season was to make the playoffs following the signing of Al Jefferson. Jefferson was a big investment for the Bobcats, and while highly questionable, with a $41 million three-year deal on the books tanking wasn’t going to be an option. They actually hired a good coach this time around in Steve Clifford who has gotten the team to pay attention to details on the defensive end of the floor. Everything was falling into place as Charlotte owned a solid 14-15 record around the holidays but the schedule stepped up, including a trip out west, and they dropped 9 of their last 11 games. But they’ve had an opportunity to catch their breath and I feel like they’ll be able to regroup for tonight’s contest. Meanwhile, the Magic are a flat-out poorly coached, bad basketball team. They own a 10-29 record, and there’s no doubt this team doesn’t really care about wins this Read more

Tags: NBA Charlotte Bobcats Orlando Magic Erin Rynning

NBA Handicapping: New York's Anthony peeved about back-to-back spot

01.14.2014     08:07 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New York at Charlotte -1 O/U 188

New York's Carmelo Anthony is not pleased out having to play the second of a back-to-back. The Knicks beat the Suns in overtime on Monday and head to Charlotte tonight in the midst of playing 10 games in 16 days. Our database shows that teams playing the second of a back-to-back off an overtime win are 68-117 SU and 75-106-4 ATS.

Tags: NBA New York Knicks Charlotte Bobcats

NBA Gambling News: Sacramento holds players-only meeting

01.06.2014     01:19 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Our favorite NBA team is back in the news as Sacramento reportedly held a player-only meeting following Saturday's 113-103 home loss to Charlotte. After picking up wins over Miami and Houston and a pointspread cover against San Antonio, the Kings lost back-to-back home games as chalk to Philadelphia and the Bobcats. Sacramento is now 1-7 SU/ATS as favorites this season. The Kings open up a three-game home stand tomorrow against Portland. Following that is a brutal six-game, nine-day road trip (1/14-1/22) against Indiana, Minnesota, Memphis, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, and Houston.

“We’re a team full of excuses,” Cousins said following the Kings’ loss.  “Guys on pitty parties. Guys wanting you to feel sorry for them.  We’ve got nothing we can complain about.  Our job is to play hard, and we won’t even go out and do that.”

Tags: NBA Sacramento Kings


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