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College Football Betting Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats

10.02.2015     07:53 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Minnesota at Northwestern
Saturday, 9 am PT - Big Ten
CRIS Opener:
Northwestern -6 O/U 39.5
CRIS Current: Northwestern -3.5 O/U 41
Recommendation: Northwestern

All the technical trends point towards Minnesota in this ballgame.  The Gophers have been great underdogs in the Jerry Kill era; 10-2 ATS in their last dozen tries, the only two losses coming at TCU last year (in a game where Minnesota’s offensive line was riddled with injuries) and their bowl game against SEC East champs Missouri – two teams that are better than Northwestern.  The Gophers have covered on each of their last NINE visits to Evanston.  Meanwhile, Northwestern has been a pointspread disaster as home chalk, just 2-9 against the number in their last eleven tries.  No surprise, then, that the early money has poured in on Minnesota, driving the NW -6 opener down to the current four point spread.

But there’s one big problem blindly betting trends and angles like the ones presented above – they don’t factor in anything other than past pointspread history.  And whatever Read more

Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Northwestern Wildcats Big Ten Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Who has what it takes to win the Big Dance Part II

03.09.2015     06:12 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA champions.  From that profile, I was able to make a short list of potential champs in 2015, consisting of the following 12 teams:  Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, Kansas, Baylor, Villanova, Wisconsin, Maryland, Arizona, Utah and Kentucky.

However, since that article was written last week, one of those 12 teams has been bounced from consideration, with Baylor suffering their eighth loss of the season at Texas in overtime.  I don’t think the Bears were serious contenders to win the title, but now that they are above the seven loss cut-off line, we can eliminate Scott Drew’s squad from the discussion entirely.

The next step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from home.

The NCAA championship is not won on a team’s home floor.  Even with a favorable location one weekend, a team is still going to have to win Read more

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers Las Vegas

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: A look ahead to the NBA Conference Semifinals

05.05.2014     08:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The first round of the NBA Playoffs is in the books; a near perfect storm for underdog bettors.  Dogs emerged victorious in three series: Portland over Houston, Washington over Chicago and Brooklyn over Toronto.  The underdog – Dallas in every game – went 6-1 ATS in the Spurs – Mavs series.  Other series losers like Atlanta, Memphis and Golden State proved to be feistier than expected.  Put it all together and we saw dogs go 32-15-3 ATS for the full 50 games played in the first round.

Should we expect Round 2 to follow the same path?  All four series certainly look competitive on paper, although top seeds Miami and San Antonio are both significant favorites to knock off Brooklyn and Portland respectively.  The series prices for Washington – Indiana and LA Clippers – Oklahoma City are certainly indicative of tight battles to come.  In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report I’ll examine all four of these second round series, looking for potential matchup edges that could offer ATS value as the series progress.

Indiana was lucky to survive their first round test against Atlanta.  The Hawks Read more

Tags: NBA Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapping: Bettors try to tackle tricky regular season finales

04.16.2014     11:28 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A lot of tricky handicaps in the NBA with tonight the last game of the regular season. Below is a list of key players who are either questionable, doubtful, or out courtesy of Sports Options.

Paul Millsap (rest) Doubtful

OJ Mayo (ankle) Questionable

Nikola Pekovic (ankle) Doubtful
Chase Budinger (ankle) Questionable

Chandler Parsons (rest) Doubtful
James Harden (rest) Doubtful

Josh Smith (knee) Questionable

Rajon Rondo (shin) Questionable
Jared Sullinger (ankle) Questionable

Deron Williams (rest) Doubtful
Joe Johnson (rest) Doubtful

Luol Deng (back) Out

David West (rest) Doubtful
Paul George (rest) Doubtful
Lance Stephenson (rest) Doubtful

New York
Carmelo Anthony (shoulder) Out

Goran Dragic (ankle) Out

Sacramento Read more

Tags: NBA

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Who Has What It Takes to Win the Big Dance Part II

03.03.2014     07:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In Part 1 of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA champions.  From that profile, I was able to make a ‘short list’ of potential champs in 2014, consisting of the following 18 teams: Cincinnati, Louisville, Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa State, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, UCLA, Florida and Kentucky.

However, since last week, two of those 18 teams have been bounced from consideration, including one of the co- favorites at any sportsbook in Vegas – John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats.  Kentucky lost two straight last week; Iowa has lost three of their last four.  Both teams are now above the seven loss cut-off line and can be eliminated.

The next step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from home.
The NCAA championship is not won on a team’s home floor.  Even with a Read more

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers

College Basketball Handicapping: Injury Report 2-21-2014

02.21.2014     02:06 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Wyoming got terrible news on Wednesday when it learned that its star Larry Nance Jr. would miss the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. Nance was leading the Cowboys in scoring (15.4 points per game), rebounding (8.6 RPG), blocked shots (2.1 BPG) and steals (1.4 SPG). Larry Shyatt's team is in the bubble picture with a 17-9 overall record, but it will be a daunting task to get to the NCAA Tournament without Nance. The Cowboys, who are 14-7-2 against the spread, play Saturday at Colorado St.

Florida reserve point guard Kasey Hill missed Wednesday's non-covering home win over Auburn with a groin injury sustained in last Saturday's victory at Kentucky. Billy Donovan told the media Friday that "unless he has a miraculous recovery, he's out" Saturday at Ole Miss. Hill averages 5.6 points per game and has a 65/33 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Seniors Patric Young and Casey Prather are both playing through sore knees. Donovan said that Young wasn't going to play against Auburn until convincing the coaching staff he could go late that afternoon. It's a good thing he did because without Young scoring all 17 of his points in the second half, including a pair of go-ahead Read more

Tags: College Basketball Brian Edwards

College Basketball Handicapping: Injury Report 1-17-2014

01.17.2014     05:45 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
After missing back-to-back games due to swelling and soreness in his knee, Florida forward Casey Prather has been cleared to play Saturday at Auburn. However, UF head coach Billy Donovan told the media Friday morning that it's unlikely that Prather will play many minutes. The senior slasher is enjoying a breakout campaign, averaging a team-high 17.0 points per game. The status of freshman big man Chris Walker remains unresolved. Walker, a McDonald's All-American from Holmes Co. High School, has been practicing with the team for a month but is still awaiting word on his eligibility from the NCAA Clearinghouse. ESPN's Chad Ford currently has Walker as the No. 22 pick in his mock for this summer's NBA Draft.

Colorado took a huge hit in Sunday's 71-54 loss at Washington when Spencer Dinwiddie was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Dinwiddie was averaging 14.7 points, 3.8 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. Without Dinwiddie last night, CU lost a 69-56 decision to UCLA as a one-point home favorite.

Boston College was hoping to get center Dennis Clifford back soon, but that's not happening. The school announced that Clifford is out for the rest of the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Brian Edwards

Little Caesars Bowl Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Bowling Green Falcons

12.17.2013     11:32 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green
Little Caesars - Detroit, Mich.
Thursday, December 26, 3 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Bowling Green -5.5 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current: Bowling Green -5 O/U 50
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Bowling Green -2

The Little Caesars Bowl represents a return to college football action after a brief day of rest for Christmas. It will showcase Pitt (6-6, ACC) and Bowling Green (10-3, MAC) doing battle at Ford Field in Detroit and we’ll examine how these teams got to be where they are and how they stack up.

Pitt was no guarantee to even make a bowl after their Jekyll and Hyde season. Inconsistent is probably the best way to describe this team and it’s easy to understand when you step back and look at them. They had to replace their starting quarterback, their leading rusher, and their best receiver to start the year couple with their transition to the ACC. They opened the year with a Read more

Tags: College Football Pittsburgh Panthers ACC Bowling Green Falcons MAC Otto Sports

College Basketball Handicapping: Injury Report 12-13-2013

12.13.2013     07:50 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
The status of North Carolina’s P.J. Hairston and Leslie McDonald remains uncertain. Both remain suspended indefinitely and the only certainty is that neither will play Saturday vs. Kentucky.

Oregon’s Ben Carter and Dominic Artis are expected to make their season debuts Tuesday vs. UC Irvine. Both have been suspended so far while the Ducks have run out to an 8-0 straight-up record and a 7-0 against-the-spread mark. The ‘over’ is also 6-0 for Oregon. Both will miss their ninth and final game Saturday vs. Illinois.

Florida stormed out to a double-digit lead by forcing 16 first-half turnovers in Tuesday’s home win over Kansas. The Gators hooked up their backers in the 67-61 win as three-point favorites in a game that wasn’t near as close as the final score indicated. A late barrage of 3-pointers by KU’s Andrew Wiggins and abysmal free-throw shooting by UF made the final seem close. UF was playing for the first time all season with its full compliment of players. Scottie Wilbekin and Kasey Hill both returned from sprained ankles a little sooner than anticipated. Wilbekin was the best player on the court against the Jayhawks, Read more

Tags: College Basketball Brian Edwards

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers


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