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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

09.22.2014     07:51 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re three weeks into the new NFL season and I’ve already got some pointspread and totals streakers to write about.  Three teams are 3-0 ATS, four more have yet to cover a pointspread. Four teams are 3-0 to the Over; five more are 3-0 to the Under. Who are these teams and why are they trending early? Most importantly, can we expect them to continue to trend in the same direction moving forward? Read on to find out.

I’ll focus here on the pointspread streakers, saving the totals streakers for a thorough look next week. That being said, I will list the early season totals streakers here, so you don’t have to go through the trouble of looking them up. 3-0 to the Over: Browns, Jaguars, Colts and Eagles. 3-0 to the Under: Bengals, Cardinals, Bills, Vikings and Titans.

The NFL is a parity filled league, and pointspreads can adjust rather dramatically based on a single early season performance. A big Week 1 or Week 2 victory, therefore, makes it more difficult to cover the spread the following week. Only three teams have managed to avoid an ATS defeat through the first three weeks of the season. All three of those squads were less than Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Betting: Recapping recent Week 1 line moves

09.02.2014     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick look at the some of the recent line moves in the NFL betting markets...

New Orleans at Atlanta: The Falcons opened -1.5 during the summer but by mid-August the Saints were -1.5/-2 favorites. Last week, New Orleans was popped again and is now -3 (ev/-105) across the board.

Minnesota at St. Louis: The Rams were -6/-6.5 for much of the summer. Now that Sam Bradford is out, the market has settled in at -4/-3.5.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: The Ravens never really threatened to go to -3, but all of the +2.5's were taken out as they are now -1 vs. the Bengals.

Buffalo at Chicago: Bears have bounced back and forth -6.5/-7. There is some opinion on this one with Chicago -7 (-110) at CRIS and -6.5 (-110) at Greek and Cantor.

Tennessee at Kansas City: A slow trickle of Titans' money pushed them from +6 to +3.5. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs -3 (w/ juice) come game day.

San Francisco at Dallas: Another one with varying opinion. San Fran opened -3.5 and was bet up to -6. But recent Cowboys' support has the 49ers settled in at Read more


Tags: NFL




NFL Preseason Betting: Cincinnati's Week 3 focus is staying healthy

08.21.2014     07:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati at Arizona -2 O/U 43

Despite being 0-2, Cincinnati isn't going to extend its starters' minutes for Sunday's Week 3 preseason game at Arizona. Head coach Marvin Lewis said that his starters likely won't see any time beyond the first half.


"The health of the football team is so important," said Lewis. "We're going to let some of the guys play more this week, but ultimately what counts is being able to prepare and be ready to go for Baltimore, and having the guys stay healthy and ready to go. We're going to extend the play of our guys because there is something about the football conditioning part. There's quite a difference between the first (regular-season) game we play to last week's (preseason) game. That's probably more than anything is I want to make sure of the conditioning part. We'll get some guys into Read more



Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Arizona Cardinals




NFL Handicapping: Bengals to be more run-heavy under OC Jackson

07.09.2014     03:00 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With Hue Jackson moving from running backs coach to offensive coordinator, the Cincinnati Bengals are projected to increase their percentage of running plays this season. Last year's squad finished 18th in rushing yards per game (109.7) and eighth in attempts (481).


But one thing became painfully clear last season, and that's Andy Dalton isn't capable of being efficient throwing 40+ times per game. It's no coincidence Cincinnati is 2-12 (including playoffs) in games Dalton throws 41 or more passes, but 18-4 in games Dalton throws 31 times or less.





Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Season Over/Under Win "morphers"

06.23.2014     08:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the seven NFC teams that are projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014 based on the current market numbers for their season win totals.  I intended to write Part II of the article last week, talking about the four AFC teams that are also projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014, but I got derailed by the College Football Game of the Year openers at the Golden Nugget; a “must report” event.  So, let’s just call it better late than never!

The markets are telling us to expect more of the same from 12 of the 16 AFC teams.  What makes these four squads different? My goal here is to focus on why these particular teams are expected to improve or decline significantly compared to last year.  I’ll do that by looking at how the broader market conditions affect the numbers.  What do the markets fixate upon?  What do they largely ignore?  Read on to find out. 

Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5 in 2013, O/U 8 wins in 2014
Last year in this space, I called the Chiefs coming off a truly dismal 2-14 campaign “the poster child for Read more


Tags: NFL AFC Kansas City Chiefs Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals Houston Texas Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason AFC Betting News and Notes

05.26.2014     08:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The LVH Superbook posted their NFL Season Win totals last weekend.  Cantor sportsbooks (CG Technology) have had season win totals posted for months.  Many other books both here in Vegas and offshore have posted season win totals, Week 1 pointspreads and Game of the Year pointspreads.  Most books that haven’t posted NFL numbers yet plan to do so in the near future.  The NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!

My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.

In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 AFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  I’ll offer similar Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas AFC




NFC Championship Betting Recap: Seattle snags win and cover over San Francisco

01.20.2014     06:46 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A very evenly played battle came right down to the final possession. San Francisco got within striking distance for the game-winning touchdown. But, a stellar defensive play from Seattle forced an interception, and sent the Seahawks to the Super Bowl to face the Denver Broncos.

Seattle (-4) 23, San Francisco 17
S. Fran: 308 yards, 5.7 per-play, 3 turnovers, 27% third downs
Seattle: 308 yards, 5.3 per-play, 1 turnovers, 36% third downs

Other Numbers
San Francisco: 161 rush, 14-24-2-147 passing, 14 drive points, 21 stat score, 25 sloppiness
Seattle: 115 rush, 16-25-0-193 passing, 17 drive points, 19 stat score, 14 sloppiness

That 308-308 dead heat in yardage tells you how even the flow of the game was. Stat score was right on the money in terms of total points. But, the turnover disadvantage kept San Francisco from getting quite where they were supposed to. Turnovers and sloppiness are a bit misleading because Seattle had a lost fumble that Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers




NFL Handicapping: An early look at Wild Card Round line moves

12.30.2013     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Next weekend's NFL Wild Card matchups are set which means that betting markets are in motion. Let's take a look at each game and where they early money have moved both offshore and in Las Vegas. For more Wild Card line move analysis be sure to tune into today’s Sportsmemo Podcast segment with handicapper Teddy Covers. It will be posted by 10 am PT.

Kansas City at Indianapolis
CRIS Opener: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46
LVH Opener: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46.5
LVH Current: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46.5

Comments: Not a lot of movement outside of a half point jump in the total. Some other offshore books have taken Colts money with the juice now -120.

New Orleans at Philadelphia
CRIS Opener: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 54.5
LVH Opener: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 55
CRIS Current: Philadelphia -2.5 (-115) O/U 54.5
LVH Current: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 54.5

Comments: Same deal as KC-Indy with minimal movement if any.

San Diego at Cincinnati
CRIS Opener: Read more


Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Philadelphia Eagles San Francisco 49ers San Diego Chargers Cincinnati Bengals Green Bay Packers New Orleans Saints Indianapolis Colts




NFL Handicapping: Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

12.27.2013     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A semi-detailed look at Week 17's playoff scenarios. Heading into Sunday there are four playoff spots still yet to be determined.

NFC: Seattle, Carolina, and San Francisco are in. If the Seahawks beat St. Louis they have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. If the Seahawks lose and San Francisco beats Arizona, the 49ers would win the West (and earn the top seed if Carolina loses). If both teams lose and Carolina beats Atlanta, then the Panthers are the top seed.

As for the rest of the NFC, Dallas at Philadelphia and Green Bay at Chicago are win-and-in matchups. New Orleans earns a wild card berth if it beats Tampa Bay. The Saints can also win the NFC South if Carolina losses. Arizona needs to beat the 49ers to go along with a Saints loss.

AFC: Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Kansas City are in. The Broncos are the top seed if they beat Oakland. If they lose and the Patriots beat the Bills, the Pats are the no. 1 seed. If the Pats lose and Cincinnati wins, the Bengals would move into the no. 2 slot. The Colts can move to no. 2 with losses by New England and Cincinnati. KC is already locked Read more


Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Playoff bound, but Super Bowl XLVIII bound?

12.23.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last year, heading into Week 17, Atlanta was the team to beat in the NFC, having already clinched homefield advantage with their 13-2 (at the time) record.  Washington was the hottest team in the conference and Green Bay was considered very live for the title, with Aaron Rodgers just one year removed from his Super Bowl ring.  In the AFC, the playoff were expected to be an eventual battle between the Patriots and Broncos, with the other four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston and Indy) largely considered to be fodder for the elites; non-factors.

What happened? A San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl, won by the Ravens; their third straight postseason win as an underdog.  Let’s not forget that Baltimore entered the playoffs in the midst of a late season 1-4 SU and ATS skid; a team that NOBODY expected to make noise in January and February.

In 2011, in the NFC, Green Bay was the unbeatable juggernaut with a 15-1 record as the defending champs, and the Saints weren’t far behind, just one year removed from a Drew Brees Super Bowl ring.  Meanwhile, the Giants were on the outside of the playoff picture, needing to beat Dallas just to get Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 23, 2014 07:37 PM.