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NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

10.29.2014     02:30 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Denver at New England
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Denver -3 O/U 54
CRUS Current: Denver -3 O/U 55
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -0.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Denver

At first glance, this line probably seems high to most people. After all, the Patriots aren’t home underdogs very often; just four times since 2005.  We saw New England annihilate Cincinnati as a national TV home dog less than a month ago.  And the Pats are 41-21 ATS as a dog in the Belichick era, cashing at a 66% clip long term in this very role.

But before we get carried away with the Pats current four game winning streak, lets not forget that New England has largely been feasting on bottom feeders.  Their six victories this season have come against Minnesota, Oakland, Cinci (in a miserable spot for the Bengals), Buffalo, the Jets and Chicago (on a day where Jay Cutler was misfiring).  That’s Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos New England Patriots Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Alert: Baltimore now favored at Cincinnati

10.23.2014     12:52 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
You don't see this very often in the NFL: In Week 1, the Cincinnati Bengals closed +1 at Baltimore and won 23-16. Fast forward to Week 8 and the same matchup, but opposite venue, is currently offering the same price. That's right, the Ravens are now favored at a number of offshore sportsbooks. The Bengals, who have lost and failed to cover three straight, are three weeks removed from laying -2.5 at New England.



Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens




NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

10.22.2014     01:16 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Cincinnati -2.5 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Cincinnati pk O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Cincinnati -1.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Baltimore

My clients and I cashed a winning Big Ticket bet supporting the Bengals in Week 1 on the road at Baltimore.  Cinci dominated that game early, but settled for five first half field goals.  After halftime, the Ravens scored 17 unanswered to take the lead.  But a 77 yard bomb from Andy Dalton to AJ Green in the final minutes allowed the Bengals to escape with a victory on Baltimore’s home field; their first road win over the Ravens since 2009.

But the Bengals team that we saw on opening day is not the same Bengals team that Marvin Lewis is fielding right now.  AJ Green has a bad toe, unable to suit up in their last two ballgames.  TE Tyler Eifert is out as well.  That duo Read more


Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

10.15.2014     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Indianapolis -3 O/U 49
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -3 O/U 49.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Indianapolis
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Indianapolis

The Bengals went into their bye week at 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, in large part because their defense dominated all three of those early season contests (wins over the Ravens, Titans and Falcons).  But in two games since their bye week, Marvin Lewis’s defense has been positively torched, allowing 80 points and 936 yards to the Patriots and Panthers.   The season long stats still show the Bengals with a top 10 defense on a yards-per-play basis, allowing 5.3 yards per opposing snap.  But those numbers were elite two weeks ago; not anywhere near elite today.  That being said, Cinci still ranks #2 in the NFL in yards per play differential; in large part due to the big play ability from Read more


Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Indianapolis Colts Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Over/Under Trends

09.29.2014     12:56 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the early ATS streakers to open the NFL season; teams that were red hot or ice cold against the spread coming out of the gate.  This week, I’ll focus on teams that have shown a strong totals bias through the first four weeks of the campaign.  Who’s trending Over?  Who’s trending Under?  And, most importantly, why are these teams trending the way they are?  Are the markets close to catching up?  Read on to find out!

One of the more incongruous September NFL trends is that of the Jacksonville Jaguars going 4-0 to the Over.  The Jags are one of only two teams (Oakland is the other) averaging fewer than 15 points per game this year.  And that’s not likely to change dramatically.  Jacksonville’s level of skill position talent is quite possibly the weakest in the NFL.  Toby Gerhart is averaging 2.6 yards per carry; Denard Robinson 3.3.  In four games, their longest run from scrimmage is 13 yards (not including a single Blake Bortles 20 yard scramble).

The Jaguars receiving corps doesn’t keep opposing defensive coordinators up at night.  Allen Hurns, Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

09.22.2014     07:51 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re three weeks into the new NFL season and I’ve already got some pointspread and totals streakers to write about.  Three teams are 3-0 ATS, four more have yet to cover a pointspread. Four teams are 3-0 to the Over; five more are 3-0 to the Under. Who are these teams and why are they trending early? Most importantly, can we expect them to continue to trend in the same direction moving forward? Read on to find out.

I’ll focus here on the pointspread streakers, saving the totals streakers for a thorough look next week. That being said, I will list the early season totals streakers here, so you don’t have to go through the trouble of looking them up. 3-0 to the Over: Browns, Jaguars, Colts and Eagles. 3-0 to the Under: Bengals, Cardinals, Bills, Vikings and Titans.

The NFL is a parity filled league, and pointspreads can adjust rather dramatically based on a single early season performance. A big Week 1 or Week 2 victory, therefore, makes it more difficult to cover the spread the following week. Only three teams have managed to avoid an ATS defeat through the first three weeks of the season. All three of those squads were less than Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Betting: Recapping recent Week 1 line moves

09.02.2014     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick look at the some of the recent line moves in the NFL betting markets...

New Orleans at Atlanta: The Falcons opened -1.5 during the summer but by mid-August the Saints were -1.5/-2 favorites. Last week, New Orleans was popped again and is now -3 (ev/-105) across the board.

Minnesota at St. Louis: The Rams were -6/-6.5 for much of the summer. Now that Sam Bradford is out, the market has settled in at -4/-3.5.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: The Ravens never really threatened to go to -3, but all of the +2.5's were taken out as they are now -1 vs. the Bengals.

Buffalo at Chicago: Bears have bounced back and forth -6.5/-7. There is some opinion on this one with Chicago -7 (-110) at CRIS and -6.5 (-110) at Greek and Cantor.

Tennessee at Kansas City: A slow trickle of Titans' money pushed them from +6 to +3.5. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs -3 (w/ juice) come game day.

San Francisco at Dallas: Another one with varying opinion. San Fran opened -3.5 and was bet up to -6. But recent Cowboys' support has the 49ers settled in at Read more


Tags: NFL




NFL Preseason Betting: Cincinnati's Week 3 focus is staying healthy

08.21.2014     07:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati at Arizona -2 O/U 43

Despite being 0-2, Cincinnati isn't going to extend its starters' minutes for Sunday's Week 3 preseason game at Arizona. Head coach Marvin Lewis said that his starters likely won't see any time beyond the first half.


"The health of the football team is so important," said Lewis. "We're going to let some of the guys play more this week, but ultimately what counts is being able to prepare and be ready to go for Baltimore, and having the guys stay healthy and ready to go. We're going to extend the play of our guys because there is something about the football conditioning part. There's quite a difference between the first (regular-season) game we play to last week's (preseason) game. That's probably more than anything is I want to make sure of the conditioning part. We'll get some guys into Read more



Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Arizona Cardinals




NFL Handicapping: Bengals to be more run-heavy under OC Jackson

07.09.2014     03:00 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With Hue Jackson moving from running backs coach to offensive coordinator, the Cincinnati Bengals are projected to increase their percentage of running plays this season. Last year's squad finished 18th in rushing yards per game (109.7) and eighth in attempts (481).


But one thing became painfully clear last season, and that's Andy Dalton isn't capable of being efficient throwing 40+ times per game. It's no coincidence Cincinnati is 2-12 (including playoffs) in games Dalton throws 41 or more passes, but 18-4 in games Dalton throws 31 times or less.





Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Season Over/Under Win "morphers"

06.23.2014     08:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the seven NFC teams that are projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014 based on the current market numbers for their season win totals.  I intended to write Part II of the article last week, talking about the four AFC teams that are also projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014, but I got derailed by the College Football Game of the Year openers at the Golden Nugget; a “must report” event.  So, let’s just call it better late than never!

The markets are telling us to expect more of the same from 12 of the 16 AFC teams.  What makes these four squads different? My goal here is to focus on why these particular teams are expected to improve or decline significantly compared to last year.  I’ll do that by looking at how the broader market conditions affect the numbers.  What do the markets fixate upon?  What do they largely ignore?  Read on to find out. 

Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5 in 2013, O/U 8 wins in 2014
Last year in this space, I called the Chiefs coming off a truly dismal 2-14 campaign “the poster child for Read more


Tags: NFL AFC Kansas City Chiefs Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals Houston Texas Teddy Covers Las Vegas



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October

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