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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Playoff Contenders

12.22.2014     10:09 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 16 of the NFL season is in the books and four teams have emerged as clear co-favorites to win the Super Bowl.  Green Bay and Seattle are at the top of the power ratings spectrum in the NFC while Denver and New England look poised for a rematch from last year in the AFC Championship Game.

Last week in this space, I poked holes in the NFC contenders, explaining why every other live team in the playoff race had at least one fundamental flaw primed to doom their chances in January.  This week, I’m going to point the magnifying glass towards the seven fringe contenders in the AFC.  Can any of them knock off the Patriots in Foxboro or the Broncos in Denver when January rolls around?  Read on to find out. 

The Houston Texans remain one of five teams still fighting for the final two playoff spots in the AFC after knocking off the Ravens on Sunday.  But if the Texans do manage to sneak into the postseason with a Wild Card berth, I’m not expecting them to do any damage. 

Houston’s defense ranks among the league’s elite, as we clearly saw once again this past weekend.  But the Texans average Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Betting News: Johnny Football gets the call vs. Cincinnati

12.09.2014     01:57 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In the midst of trying to secure their first playoff berth since 2002, the Cleveland Browns have decided to play a little quarterback music chairs. A few weeks back, off of a loss, they considered a move to Johnny Manziel but decided against it. Following last week's loss to Indianapolis -- a game in which Brian Hoyer failed to hit 50% of his pass and threw two picks -- the team will now give Manziel a shot. He'll get the starting nod in Sunday's must-win vs. Cincinnati. The betting market's reaction? Crickets. Little to no movement following the accouncement.


"This decision is really not about Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel, it is about the Cleveland Browns. We are always going to make decisions that we feel are in the best interest of the team," Pettine said in a statement. "Brian has done everything that has been asked of him and he has done so as a true professional. ... We are trying to get the offense to perform at a higher level. Johnny has worked very hard to earn this opportunity and it will be very Read more



Tags: NFL Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC News and Notes

11.10.2014     08:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Cleveland Browns went into Thursday Night’s matchup at Cincinnati with a winning record, but without much respect from the betting markets.  Cleveland had spent the last month feasting on the weak, facing off against the likes of the Titans, Jaguars, Raiders and Bucs in their previous five games; arguably the four worst teams in the NFL.  The Browns didn’t blow out any of those squads; locked in tight, competitive games each time except their only loss during that span – a blowout defeat at Jacksonville.

Without pro bowl center Alex Mack in the lineup over their previous three games, the Browns offense became completely one-dimensional; a team that couldn’t run the football one iota.  Against Tampa’s shoddy rush D, it was 26 carries for 50 yards.  The week before, it was 25 rushes for 39 yards.  The week before that, it was 30 rushes for 69 yards.  That’s less than two yards per carry against weaklings.

So what did the Browns do in their step-up game on Thursday Night at Cincinnati?  Simple – they dominated on both sides of the football, start to finish, rushing for 170 yards and Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Handicapping: Cincinnati surviving with stellar pass defense

11.04.2014     07:33 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Run through the teams stats and rankings and the Cincinnati Bengals don't do a lot of things well. But according to Football Outsiders, their saving grace has been "the league’s best pass defense.” Great read.


"Their passing game is average," Hornsby said. "(It's helped) slightly by (Mo) Sanu and (A.J.) Green, when he was healthy. They are struggling to run, (but) their overall ground game is about at the NFL average. Their penalty level is at the NFL average. Notice a trend?

"They are really struggling in run defense. They are getting beaten at the point of attack and the only good run defenders in the front seven are either injured (Vontaze Burfict) or coming back from injury (Geno Atkins).

"If you're the best in Defensive Passer Rating, chances are you're going to make a (playoff) run," Byrne says.





Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals




NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

10.29.2014     02:30 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Denver at New England
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Denver -3 O/U 54
CRUS Current: Denver -3 O/U 55
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -0.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Denver

At first glance, this line probably seems high to most people. After all, the Patriots aren’t home underdogs very often; just four times since 2005.  We saw New England annihilate Cincinnati as a national TV home dog less than a month ago.  And the Pats are 41-21 ATS as a dog in the Belichick era, cashing at a 66% clip long term in this very role.

But before we get carried away with the Pats current four game winning streak, lets not forget that New England has largely been feasting on bottom feeders.  Their six victories this season have come against Minnesota, Oakland, Cinci (in a miserable spot for the Bengals), Buffalo, the Jets and Chicago (on a day where Jay Cutler was misfiring).  That’s Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos New England Patriots Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Alert: Baltimore now favored at Cincinnati

10.23.2014     12:52 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
You don't see this very often in the NFL: In Week 1, the Cincinnati Bengals closed +1 at Baltimore and won 23-16. Fast forward to Week 8 and the same matchup, but opposite venue, is currently offering the same price. That's right, the Ravens are now favored at a number of offshore sportsbooks. The Bengals, who have lost and failed to cover three straight, are three weeks removed from laying -2.5 at New England.



Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens




NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

10.22.2014     01:16 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Cincinnati -2.5 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Cincinnati pk O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Cincinnati -1.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Baltimore

My clients and I cashed a winning Big Ticket bet supporting the Bengals in Week 1 on the road at Baltimore.  Cinci dominated that game early, but settled for five first half field goals.  After halftime, the Ravens scored 17 unanswered to take the lead.  But a 77 yard bomb from Andy Dalton to AJ Green in the final minutes allowed the Bengals to escape with a victory on Baltimore’s home field; their first road win over the Ravens since 2009.

But the Bengals team that we saw on opening day is not the same Bengals team that Marvin Lewis is fielding right now.  AJ Green has a bad toe, unable to suit up in their last two ballgames.  TE Tyler Eifert is out as well.  That duo Read more


Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

10.15.2014     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Indianapolis -3 O/U 49
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -3 O/U 49.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Indianapolis
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Indianapolis

The Bengals went into their bye week at 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, in large part because their defense dominated all three of those early season contests (wins over the Ravens, Titans and Falcons).  But in two games since their bye week, Marvin Lewis’s defense has been positively torched, allowing 80 points and 936 yards to the Patriots and Panthers.   The season long stats still show the Bengals with a top 10 defense on a yards-per-play basis, allowing 5.3 yards per opposing snap.  But those numbers were elite two weeks ago; not anywhere near elite today.  That being said, Cinci still ranks #2 in the NFL in yards per play differential; in large part due to the big play ability from Read more


Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Indianapolis Colts Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Over/Under Trends

09.29.2014     12:56 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the early ATS streakers to open the NFL season; teams that were red hot or ice cold against the spread coming out of the gate.  This week, I’ll focus on teams that have shown a strong totals bias through the first four weeks of the campaign.  Who’s trending Over?  Who’s trending Under?  And, most importantly, why are these teams trending the way they are?  Are the markets close to catching up?  Read on to find out!

One of the more incongruous September NFL trends is that of the Jacksonville Jaguars going 4-0 to the Over.  The Jags are one of only two teams (Oakland is the other) averaging fewer than 15 points per game this year.  And that’s not likely to change dramatically.  Jacksonville’s level of skill position talent is quite possibly the weakest in the NFL.  Toby Gerhart is averaging 2.6 yards per carry; Denard Robinson 3.3.  In four games, their longest run from scrimmage is 13 yards (not including a single Blake Bortles 20 yard scramble).

The Jaguars receiving corps doesn’t keep opposing defensive coordinators up at night.  Allen Hurns, Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

09.22.2014     07:51 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re three weeks into the new NFL season and I’ve already got some pointspread and totals streakers to write about.  Three teams are 3-0 ATS, four more have yet to cover a pointspread. Four teams are 3-0 to the Over; five more are 3-0 to the Under. Who are these teams and why are they trending early? Most importantly, can we expect them to continue to trend in the same direction moving forward? Read on to find out.

I’ll focus here on the pointspread streakers, saving the totals streakers for a thorough look next week. That being said, I will list the early season totals streakers here, so you don’t have to go through the trouble of looking them up. 3-0 to the Over: Browns, Jaguars, Colts and Eagles. 3-0 to the Under: Bengals, Cardinals, Bills, Vikings and Titans.

The NFL is a parity filled league, and pointspreads can adjust rather dramatically based on a single early season performance. A big Week 1 or Week 2 victory, therefore, makes it more difficult to cover the spread the following week. Only three teams have managed to avoid an ATS defeat through the first three weeks of the season. All three of those squads were less than Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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