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NFC Championship Betting Recap: Seattle snags win and cover over San Francisco

01.20.2014     06:46 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A very evenly played battle came right down to the final possession. San Francisco got within striking distance for the game-winning touchdown. But, a stellar defensive play from Seattle forced an interception, and sent the Seahawks to the Super Bowl to face the Denver Broncos.

Seattle (-4) 23, San Francisco 17
S. Fran: 308 yards, 5.7 per-play, 3 turnovers, 27% third downs
Seattle: 308 yards, 5.3 per-play, 1 turnovers, 36% third downs

Other Numbers
San Francisco: 161 rush, 14-24-2-147 passing, 14 drive points, 21 stat score, 25 sloppiness
Seattle: 115 rush, 16-25-0-193 passing, 17 drive points, 19 stat score, 14 sloppiness

That 308-308 dead heat in yardage tells you how even the flow of the game was. Stat score was right on the money in terms of total points. But, the turnover disadvantage kept San Francisco from getting quite where they were supposed to. Turnovers and sloppiness are a bit misleading because Seattle had a lost fumble that Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers




NFL Handicapping: An early look at Wild Card Round line moves

12.30.2013     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Next weekend's NFL Wild Card matchups are set which means that betting markets are in motion. Let's take a look at each game and where they early money have moved both offshore and in Las Vegas. For more Wild Card line move analysis be sure to tune into today’s Sportsmemo Podcast segment with handicapper Teddy Covers. It will be posted by 10 am PT.

Kansas City at Indianapolis
CRIS Opener: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46
LVH Opener: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46.5
LVH Current: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46.5

Comments: Not a lot of movement outside of a half point jump in the total. Some other offshore books have taken Colts money with the juice now -120.

New Orleans at Philadelphia
CRIS Opener: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 54.5
LVH Opener: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 55
CRIS Current: Philadelphia -2.5 (-115) O/U 54.5
LVH Current: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 54.5

Comments: Same deal as KC-Indy with minimal movement if any.

San Diego at Cincinnati
CRIS Opener: Read more


Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Philadelphia Eagles San Francisco 49ers San Diego Chargers Cincinnati Bengals Green Bay Packers New Orleans Saints Indianapolis Colts




NFL Handicapping: Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

12.27.2013     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A semi-detailed look at Week 17's playoff scenarios. Heading into Sunday there are four playoff spots still yet to be determined.

NFC: Seattle, Carolina, and San Francisco are in. If the Seahawks beat St. Louis they have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. If the Seahawks lose and San Francisco beats Arizona, the 49ers would win the West (and earn the top seed if Carolina loses). If both teams lose and Carolina beats Atlanta, then the Panthers are the top seed.

As for the rest of the NFC, Dallas at Philadelphia and Green Bay at Chicago are win-and-in matchups. New Orleans earns a wild card berth if it beats Tampa Bay. The Saints can also win the NFC South if Carolina losses. Arizona needs to beat the 49ers to go along with a Saints loss.

AFC: Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Kansas City are in. The Broncos are the top seed if they beat Oakland. If they lose and the Patriots beat the Bills, the Pats are the no. 1 seed. If the Pats lose and Cincinnati wins, the Bengals would move into the no. 2 slot. The Colts can move to no. 2 with losses by New England and Cincinnati. KC is already locked Read more


Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Playoff bound, but Super Bowl XLVIII bound?

12.23.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last year, heading into Week 17, Atlanta was the team to beat in the NFC, having already clinched homefield advantage with their 13-2 (at the time) record.  Washington was the hottest team in the conference and Green Bay was considered very live for the title, with Aaron Rodgers just one year removed from his Super Bowl ring.  In the AFC, the playoff were expected to be an eventual battle between the Patriots and Broncos, with the other four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston and Indy) largely considered to be fodder for the elites; non-factors.

What happened? A San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl, won by the Ravens; their third straight postseason win as an underdog.  Let’s not forget that Baltimore entered the playoffs in the midst of a late season 1-4 SU and ATS skid; a team that NOBODY expected to make noise in January and February.

In 2011, in the NFC, Green Bay was the unbeatable juggernaut with a 15-1 record as the defending champs, and the Saints weren’t far behind, just one year removed from a Drew Brees Super Bowl ring.  Meanwhile, the Giants were on the outside of the playoff picture, needing to beat Dallas just to get Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 14

12.05.2013     08:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here are per-game Drive Point averages on offense and defense for all 32 teams…arranged in schedule rotation order. If you’re new to the website, Drive Points are only those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. Special teams and defensive scoring isn’t counted, nor are “cheap” points scored off field position. The goal is to get a clean a read as possible on “pure” offense and defense in terms of driving the field for points, and preventing the opposition from doing so.

Strength of schedule rankings from Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders are in the first parenthesis (in that order) to provide some extra context for you, followed by this season’s turnover differential in the second parenthesis…

Thursday

Houston: 10.8 on offense, 13.5 on defense (6-15) (-12 turnovers)

Jacksonville: 6.2 on offense, 16.7 on defense (2-10) (-4 turnovers)

(Houston is 10.1 and 13.2 in the Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 13

11.28.2013     07:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had time to put together a larger preview report than normal. What you see below are per-game Drive Point averages on offense and defense for all 32 teams…arranged in schedule rotation order. If you’re new to the website, Drive Points are only those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. Special teams and defensive scoring isn’t counted, nor are “cheap” points scored off field position. The goal is to get as clean a read as possible on “pure” offense and defense in terms of driving the field for points, and preventing the opposition from doing so.

Strength of schedule rankings from Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders are in the first parenthesis (in that order) to provide some extra context for you, followed by turnover differential in the second parenthesis…

Thanksgiving Games

Green Bay: 16.3 on offense, 14.7 on defense (30-24) (-5 turnovers)

Detroit: 17.5 on offense, 15.6 on defense (26-17) (-7 Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Feng Shui/Analytics Part II

11.15.2013     06:05 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A week ago, I posted some notes and thoughts about what seemed to be significant ranking differences for certain NFL teams at the most widely known “analytics” sites.

There’s no need for you to go back and read the whole thing on a link. I’ll provide one at the end if you missed that article.

In short, I mentioned how the whole thing reminded me of a Penn & Teller segment on Feng Shui on their Showtime series. Different practitioners said they were using “science.” But, they got wildly different conclusions in a way that suggested to observers that there wasn’t a meaningful “there” there when it was all said and done. This guy thinks the couch should be here…that guy thinks Cincinnati should be ranked #1. Use common sense to put your couch in front of the TV…use common sense to rank Cincinnati off the pace of the truly elite but in the mix of potential darkhorses…what’s being called Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC News and Notes from Week 10

11.11.2013     11:22 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC thoughts and opinions from Week 10.

Cincinnati Bengals - Five key starters are missing from this defense. Geno Atkins, Robert Geathers, Taylor Mays and Leon Hall are all on injured reserve. Rey Maualuga was out today, as was fellow LB Michael Boley. That's one heck of a lot of talent to be missing! So for this stop unit to shut down the Ravens for the better part of the last three quarters speaks volumes about their depth and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s schemes.

All the questions about Andy Dalton's ability to guide this team to postseason success continue to linger. Dalton won the AFC Offensive Player of the Month award in October, but here in November he could win the 'biggest downgrade of any QB this month' award. Dalton was awful last Thursday against the Dolphins and he was even worse today.

Dalton held the ball too long, taking sacks instead of making quick decisions. His accuracy Read more


Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts Tennessee Titans Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

11.08.2013     02:08 PM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Sunday, 10 am PT – CBS
CRIS Opener:
Cincinnati -2.5 O/U 42
CRIS Current: Cincinnati O/U 44.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Baltimore pk
Brian Edwards’ Recommendation: Over

If Baltimore (3-5 straight up, 3-5 against the spread) has any hopes of getting back into the AFC North race, it desperately needs a win Sunday vs. Cincinnati. As of Friday, most books had the Bengals favored by -1.5 with a total of 44.

Cincinnati (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) has had a few extra days of preparation after losing a 22-20 decision at Miami last Thursday. The Bengals suffered the overtime defeat as 3-point road chalk.

Marvin Lewis’s team leads the AFC North with a 1.5-game advantage over second-place Cleveland. The Bengals had won four in a row before being knocked off by the Dolphins.

Even worse than the loss at Miami was the season-ending ACL tear sustained by Read more


Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens Brian Edwards



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, and Ian Cameron. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Apr 17, 2014 11:41 AM.