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Teddy Covers' Vegas Wiseguy Report: Attacking Cantor's Opening NFL Lines
05.13.2013 11:06 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
I’ve got to give Cantor Gaming a boatload of credit this week. While the vast majority of other sportsbooks around the globe collectively twiddled their thumbs following the NFL Draft, Cantor was the first major book to market with both season win totals and with pointspreads for every regular season game through Week 16. And Cantor released all of those numbers in their unique style – confident, aggressive, high limit bookmaking, exactly what the industry needs more of these days.
Of course, my job isn’t to praise Cantor. Like any bettor here in Las Vegas, my job is to beat Cantor! Over the course of the hot, summer months (the first 100 degree day of the year in Vegas comes this week, with many more to follow), I’ll spend a handful of articles discussing those 2013 NFL season win totals as the markets begin to mature. But this week, I’m going to write about Cantor’s ‘every game, every week’ pointspreads for an NFL season that won’t even kick off until September! There certainly aren’t many opportunities in the sportsbetting world to get down significant wagers on regular season games that won’t be played
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the AFC's Final Four
01.07.2013 08:02 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.
It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21 Unders compared to 19 Overs. But over the last two years, it’s 7-1 to the Over. In the two years before that, it was 6-2 to the Under. In the two years prior to that, Overs and Unders
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Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans
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NFL Handicapping: Cincinnati's defensive turnaround results in 7-1 ATS run
01.04.2013 08:11 AM
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Cincinnati
at
Houston
-4.5 O/U 43.5
It's been an amazing defensive transformation by the Cincinnati Bengals who allowed 34 ppg their first three game of the season and ended up one of the best stop units in the league. Eight games into the season, the Bengals were 3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, and 5-3 O/U. After a dominating 31-13 win in over the Giants in Week 10, the switch was flipped. Cinci closed out the year 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS and 1-7 O/U. One of the strengths of the defense has been its ability to
apply pressure without blitzing
.
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Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans
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NFL Wild Card Handicapping: Line moves update
01.03.2013 12:25 PM
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A quick look at this weekend's NFL Wild Card line moves.
Cincinnati at Houston
CRIS Opener: Houston -5 O/U 44
CRIS Current: Houston -4.5 O/U 43.5
Early money came in on the Texans driving the line down to -4 but those were quickly bought up. The total has been bet down from and opener of 44 to as low as 43. A rematch of last year's Wild Card in which Houston won 31-10 as 4-point home favorites. The total in that game closed 38.
Minnesota at Green Bay
CRIS Opener: Green Bay -8 O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -8 O/U 46
Sportsbooks not scared to death by bettors teasing Green Bay below a field goal have been dealing -8 and -7.5 for much of the week. Pinnacle of course protecting themselves with -9.5 +115. The prevailing total is 46 with Greek dealing 46.5 and Grande 45.5. Weather expected to be decent; 25 degrees with a small chance of snow.
Indianapolis at Baltimore
CRIS Opener: Baltimore -6.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current: Baltimore -7 (-115) O/U 47
Earlier today, all of the 6.5's were taken out as Baltimore is now a touchdown favorite across the board.
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Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Redskins
Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals
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NFL Handicapping: Ravens look to maintain success vs. rookie quarterbacks
01.03.2013 10:39 AM
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Indianapolis
at
Baltimore
-6.5 O/U 47
The Baltimore Ravens have a pretty strong history against
rookie quarterbacks
under head coach John Harbaugh. In eight games, Baltimore went 6-2 and held those first-year signal callers for 51% completions and a 60.4 passer rating.
“I can't tell you any secrets, but we've got a little niche going,” defensive tackle Arthur Jones said. “We definitely have something going that you'll see on Sunday. We've definitely got something going that's positive and been working for us against rookie quarterbacks to isolate them and prevent them from performing at high levels.”
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Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens
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NFL Handicapping Trends: Philadelphia in letdown spot after snapping losing streak
12.11.2012 11:05 AM
Otto Sports
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Submitted by Otto Sports
Cincinnati
-3.5 at
Philadelphia
O/U 45.5
Last week, the Philadelphia Eagles came away with a dramatic last second victory in Tampa Bay to snap an epic losing streak. With their new defensive line coach in tow they were solid all day in stopping the run, rushing the passer and stopping the Bucs from converting on third downs. Had they not gift wrapped seven points for the Bucs on off a muffed punt inside the 10-yard line perhaps the final touchdown drive would not have been necessary.
It will be interesting to see how they come back this week on the short rest. After celebrating like they had just won the Super Bowl the possibility of seeing an emotional letdown doesn’t seem too far off.
Check out the results a week (or in Philly’s case four days) after snapping at least a five-game losing streak: Dating back to 2002, teams in that situation are 22-50-1 SU and 35-37-1 ATS (avg. line +5.2). We’ve already seen the Chiefs, Browns, Jaguars and Panthers all
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Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals
Marty Otto
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NFL Gambling Notes: Pittsburgh Steelers banged up along offensive line
10.17.2012 06:21 AM
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Pittsburgh
-2.5 at
Cincinnati
O/U 45.5
Offensive line
issues
for the Pittsburgh Steelers heading into Sunday night's tilt against Cincinnati.
Right tackle Marcus Gilbert (ankle) has been ruled out and center Maurkice Pouncey (knee) is considered questionable, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin announced Tuesday. Rookie second-round draft pick Mike Adams will make the first start of his career while filling in for Gilbert, and Doug Legursky would start for Pouncey.
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Betting NFL Totals: A closer look at the Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles
10.12.2012 02:20 PM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Heading into Week 6 of the NFL season, there are plenty of personnel and fundamental adjustments to teams that need to be monitored closely. Today I’ll address a pair of teams which could, and in some instances, already do look different.
Cincinnati Bengals
– Injuries to the defensive secondary crippled the Bengals earlier this season leading to a perception of them by many as an OVER team heading into their Week 3 game against Washington. That contest saw the line soar from its opener of 46.5 across three key numbers all the way to 49.5. The move was correct as the 38-31 final went nearly 20 points above the closing price. The following week saw Cincinnati defensive backs all over the injury report again and their game total at Jacksonville was bet up from 41.5 to 45.5 stampeding four key numbers along the way. That matchup featured a couple of missed opportunities including a third quarter goal line stand by the Jaguars helping it end 27-10. Important Cincinnati secondary members began to trickle back last week vs. Miami but that did not dampen the spirits of OVER bettors as they took the game from 44 to 45
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Cincinnati Bengals
Philadelphia Eagles
Rob Veno
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NFL Pointspread Analysis: Bettors fade Cincinnati Bengals for third straight week
10.10.2012 12:08 PM
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Cincinnati
-1 at
Cleveland
O/U 44
For the third straight week we're seeing the NFL betting markets put the big fade on the Cincinnati Bengals. And the competition isn't exactly elite with Jacksonville, Miami and now Cleveland.
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Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
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NFL Handicapper Free Play: Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
09.30.2012 07:20 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Cincinnati
-1 at
Jacksonville
O/U 44.5
Recommendation: Over
The Bengals defense was a unit of strength last year and looked pretty decent in August. But here in September, Cinci has been torched all three of their games. The Ravens moved through this D like a hot knife through butter, hanging 44 on the Bengals on opening night.
Cinci’s performance against the Browns the following week was even worse. Cleveland rookie QB Brandon Weeden had a QB rating of 5.1 in his debut at home against Philly. On the road at Cinci, Weeden had a QB rating of 114.9, throwing for 8.7 yards per attempt. Trent Richardson was held to 19 yards on 39 carries in the Browns opener. Against Cinci, he carried 19 times again, but against the Bengals D, he gained 109 yards. The Browns had only one ‘three and out’ all afternoon. And last week, Washington hung 31 on the Bengals defense; again facing little resistance.
The Bengals secondary is a complete disaster area
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Cincinnati Begals
Jacksonville Jaguars
Teddy Covers
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