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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Miami Heat fit the profile of a champion
04.15.2013 07:50 AM
Printer Friendly
Every year, prior to the end of the regular season, I write a column I call ‘Who Has What it Takes to Win the Big Dance”. After Louisville’s NCAA Tournament Championship this year, we’ve seen future champions fit a specific statistical profile in 15 of the last 16 tournaments. As a result of that specific statistical profile, I can simply go through all the contending teams, one by one, to see which squad has the best chance (or one of the best chances) to cut down the nets following six consecutive victories over a three week span.
I do not go through a specific statistical profile that predicts NBA playoff success the same way I do for college. And while the NCAA Tournament is a relative sprint, the NBA Playoffs are an extended, two month long marathon; a war of attrition as much as anything else. A race towards a four series, 16 victory championship requires talent and health.
We don’t see longshots winning NBA titles very often. The biggest surprise teams to win a title in the last two decades – the 2004 Pistons and the 2011 Mavericks – were both deep, veteran, defensive minded
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Teddy Covers
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NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs
03.03.2013 08:52 AM
ER Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports
Detroit
+12.5 at
San Antonio
O/U 200
Recommendation: Detroit
We’ll take a look at the Detroit Piston's plus the big points tonight against San Antonio. Injuries have started to really pile up for the Spurs with Stephen Jackson and Gary Neal doubtful and Boris Diaw and Tony Parker out. Parker is quietly having an MVP-type season with 21.0 ppg and 7.6 assists. The Spurs have been able to succeed when parts of the "Big Three" sit or are injured but without Parker as well as the other injuries, it becomes tough to cover big numbers like what we're seeing tonight. Detroit comes in rested after losing at New Orleans 100-95 on Friday. I expect this to be a lower scoring game which San Antonio has a tendency to win but not cover when laying big points. Look for Detroit’s Greg Monroe to have a big day in the paint and for the Pistons to cash as a +12.5 underdog.
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NBA Gambling Update: New Orleans Hornets struggle, trend OVER the total
02.28.2013 02:26 PM
Printer Friendly
UPDATE
Detroit
at
New Orleans
-3.5 O/U 193.5
The New Orleans Hornets closed out the first half of the season strong, winning and covering four of five while trending UNDER the total (1-4 O/U). Since returning from the All-Star break, the complete opposite has occurred. The Hornets have
lost and failed to cover in five of six
while trending OVER the total (5-1 O/U).
"It all starts on the defensive end," said forward Ryan Anderson, who started in Davis' place Wednesday, and likely would again if Davis is unable to play Friday night against the Pistons. "That really fuels us. I think Coach (Monty Williams) keeps harping on the fact that we need to play Hornets basketball, our style of basketball. And it really
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New Orleans Hornets
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NBA Handicapping: Are they Washington Wizards running out of pointspread value?
02.27.2013 12:37 PM
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Detroit
at
Washington
-7 O/U 190.5
When Washington's John Wall came back from injury in January, there was really no indication the Wizards were going to significantly improve. At the time they were 5-28 SU but were a very respectable 17-14-2 ATS. Now Wall has had no question had an impact but some of the credit should go to head coach
Randy Whittman
and the team's wiliness to keep fighting and more importantly
defend
. Regardless of the secret ingredient, what we do know is Washington is playing good basketball (13-9 SU since Wall's return) and has become a pointspread machine (17-5 ATS). It's been amazing to watch their transformation in the betting markets. In Wall's first two games back Washington was +3 vs.
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Washington Wizards
Detroit Pistons
Erin Rynning
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NBA Handicapping: Wizards and Rockets your latest ATS streakers
01.24.2013 07:19 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
I mentioned last night that several storylines we’ve been following would be in play on the Wednesday night NBA schedule. For the most part, all of those storylines continue unabated. Let’s start with the third game on the Nevada rotation schedule, because it’s barely worth mentioning that Charlotte is still horrible (they lost and failed to cover vs. Atlanta), and Miami is still coasting until the games matter (they had to go overtime to beat Toronto).
*Detroit continued its solid play, losing by only three points as a 6-point underdog in Chicago even though they were playing on night two of a back-to-back. The final score was 85-82. Home court advantage is worth three points typically in the NBA. So, that grades out as the Pistons being even with Chicago. And, THAT’S consistent with what we’ve been talking about lately with the Pistons’ improvement. They’re still playing like a team in the low 80’s (or high 70’s tonight in a
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Washington Wizards
Houston Rockets
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NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors
12.19.2012 11:48 AM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
Detroit
at
Toronto
-2.5 O/U 187
Recommendation: Toronto
My clients and I cashed a ticket on the Toronto Raptors in their 113-99 road win against the Cleveland Cavaliers last night. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up about the changes with the Raptors that have led to their current three game win streak:
“For a very long period of time, Toronto couldn't find a way to win games especially the close ones and had their own ugly stretch where they lost six games in a row. At the tail end of that slump, Andrea Bargnani and Kyle Lowry got injured for the Raptors (those two are not great defenders) and head coach Dwane Casey said enough is enough and that the team needed to get back to their defense first mindset and since then, the Raptors reeled off B2B home wins against Dallas and Houston. They’ve played stellar defensively since Casey made his point and have held their last two opponents to 41% or lower shooting in those wins.”
Toronto followed it
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Detroit Pistons
Toronto Raptors
Ian Cameron
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NBA Handicapping: Detroit Pistons trending UNDER the total
12.05.2012 06:52 AM
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Golden State
at
Detroit
-1 O/U 191.5
After being on the road and outclassed the first two weeks of the season, the Detroit Pistons have played some better basketball of late including five straight wins at home. Head coach Lawrence Frank credits the turnaround to
more effort on defense
. The Pistons have gone UNDER the total in 10 of their last 13 games.
"It just goes to show you if we'll continue to commit and grind and work at it what we're capable of doing," Frank said Tuesday after practice. "It's similar to the trend from last year. That's when we started to play better basketball.
"You have to stand for something and, for us, we have to be a defense-first team."
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Detroit Pistons
Golden State Warriors
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NBA Handicapping: Denver Nuggets prepared to struggle with road-heavy schedule
11.06.2012 07:13 AM
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Detroit
at
Denver
-10.5 O/U 196.5
After an 0-3 road trip to open the season, the Denver Nuggets will play their home opener tonight against the Detroit Pistons. The Nuggets play
22 of their first 32 games
on the highway.
"I'm not going to address losing because the first 32 games of the season, we're probably not going to have this flamboyant record that's going to knock people out," said Karl. "But we have to figure out how to win games."
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Denver Nuggets
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NBA Regular Season Over/Under Win Recommendation - Philadelphia 76ers
10.19.2012 12:59 PM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Philadelphia 76ers
Recommendation: Under
Pinnacle: 46.5un-120
5Dimes: 47.5un-125
CRIS: 46
Greek: 47
The 76ers were great to us during the 2010-11 season, which coincided with the hiring of head coach Doug Collins. We banked massive profits after their troubling 3-13 SU start – they finished 41-41 and were an ATS machine. Last year, in the lockout shortened season, it looked like Philadelphia was the same hard-trying team with solid chemistry as they jumped out to an 18-7 start. However, this was clearly a mirage as they finished the regular season on a 17-24 run, and the goodwill Collins created clearly had left the building. They did rally to beat the Chicago Bulls in the first round of the playoffs, but there’s no way that happens with a healthy Derrick Rose on the floor.
The truth of the matter is Collins largely lost this team back in February. He has a track record of coming in and getting young players to “buy in” before he eventually tears everyone around him down to the point of no return. In this era and with today’s player it can happen
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Philadelphia 76ers
Erin Rynning
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NBA Playoff History: Streaking Spurs to be tested by Thunder
05.25.2012 07:58 AM
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As reviewed in our
recent blog
, San Antonio is on a remarkable run entering the Western Conference Finals having won 18 straight games while rewarding their betting backers with a 15-2-1 ATS mark. Now the betting public seems to be riding the Spurs in the Western Conference finals series as well as Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, I’ve outlined some similar teams on remarkable rolls heading into the Conference Finals that did not pay off for their betting backers.
In 2009-10, the Orlando Magic were on a 28-3 run following a sweep of their first two playoff series. The Magic (-6.5) lost game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals to the Celtics 92-88 and lost the series 4-2.
In 2008-09, the Cleveland Cavaliers were on a 13-1 run including 8-0 in the opening two rounds of the NBA playoffs. Overall, the Cavs were on a 26-3 run heading into the NBA finals before losing the opening game to the Orlando Magic 107-106 as 8.5-point favorites. The Cavaliers went 66-16 during
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