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Teddy Covers' Vegas Wiseguy Report: Attacking Cantor's Opening NFL Lines
05.13.2013 11:06 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
I’ve got to give Cantor Gaming a boatload of credit this week. While the vast majority of other sportsbooks around the globe collectively twiddled their thumbs following the NFL Draft, Cantor was the first major book to market with both season win totals and with pointspreads for every regular season game through Week 16. And Cantor released all of those numbers in their unique style – confident, aggressive, high limit bookmaking, exactly what the industry needs more of these days.
Of course, my job isn’t to praise Cantor. Like any bettor here in Las Vegas, my job is to beat Cantor! Over the course of the hot, summer months (the first 100 degree day of the year in Vegas comes this week, with many more to follow), I’ll spend a handful of articles discussing those 2013 NFL season win totals as the markets begin to mature. But this week, I’m going to write about Cantor’s ‘every game, every week’ pointspreads for an NFL season that won’t even kick off until September! There certainly aren’t many opportunities in the sportsbetting world to get down significant wagers on regular season games that won’t be played
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NFL Gambling Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
12.13.2012 01:57 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Indianapolis
at
Houston
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Indianapolis
CRIS Opener:
Houston -8 O/U 49
CRIS Current:
Houston -9 O/U 48
Teddy's Power Rating:
Houston -8
The Texans are a paper tiger, a fraud. They spent much of the season beating up on the weak, and even those wins haven't come easily of late. Jacksonville (2-11) scored 37 against the Texans stop unit, making Chad Henne look like a pro bowler with 354 yards and four touchdowns off the bench. They managed to beat Detroit (4-9) in OT only because Lions head coach Jim Schwartz threw an illegal challenge flag that resulted in an 81-yard touchdown that should never have been. Against the Titans’ miserable defense, the Texans managed only five first downs in the entire second half. And we all saw what happened on MNF when Houston traveled to New England – a complete, confidence sapping
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Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Looking at the contenders in the AFC
12.03.2012 09:49 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
I spent the last few Sunday’s concentrating on some pretty bad football teams. It’s December now; time to shift my focus towards the other end of the spectrum. This week, I focused on four AFC Playoff contenders. Which teams have the potential to do some damage when January rolls around and which are frauds? Read on to find out!
Indianapolis
- Indy is certainly not a Super Bowl contender. But given that they were seven point underdogs at 4-7 Detroit, the betting markets aren’t even calling the Colts a playoff caliber team. Even with starting cornerback Vontae Davis back in the lineup following a four game injury absence, the pass defense spent all afternoon getting torched. Where's the pass rush? Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were non-factors here.
The offensive line got dominated by Detroit’s front four for most of the afternoon. Andrew Luck was beaten up, taking one big hit after the next. Coming into the game with four fumbles and 10 INTs in five previous road games, Luck's emphasis was on ball security here. That emphasis didn’t work. He hit seven different receivers in the first half, but also threw a pair
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Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans
Teddy Covers
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NFL Gambling Preview: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
11.30.2012 02:43 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Houston
at
Tennessee
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Tennessee
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Houston -4.5 O/U 48
CRIS Current:
Houston -6.5 O/U 47
Houston is in their single worst spot of the entire season. The Texans played an OT barnburner in Detroit last week, escaping with a hard fought three point win. The previous week, the Texans pulled a ‘refuse-to-lose’ at home against the Jags, rallying from two TD’s behind in the fourth quarter for another OT win. The week before that, the Texans were in a tough, physical game at Chicago in nasty, cold conditions that also was a one score game throughout. That’s three consecutive ‘max effort’ games in a row.
Up next for Houston? An AFC showdown at New England on Monday Night Football, with a chance to put themselves firmly in position for homefield edge throughout the playoffs. In between those previous games and the Monday
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Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans
Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: AFC Contenders and Pretenders
11.12.2012 11:47 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
November is the time in the NFL where we separate contenders from pretenders. Last week, I focused on the NFC; this week, I’ll turn to the AFC. Unfortunately, the Colts and Steelers didn’t play on Sunday, and the Texans’ Sunday Night game was played in weather conditions that affected the game (and the game plan) significantly. Who among the rest can challenge for AFC supremacy? Read on to find out.
Denver Broncos
- Another slow start for a West Coast team traveling East; certainly not unusual. Slow starts have been a consistent problem for Denver all year. We saw them fall behind by three scores when they faced Atlanta, Houston and San Diego – three of the tougher foes they've faced. But slow starts are about the only fault I can find with this team right now.
We already know how good Denver’s offense can be, and they score touchdowns : 22 TDs in 32 red zone possessions. The Broncos have an elite quarterback, a strong running game and playmaking WR's - they can trade points with anybody. This team's postseason future rests on the strength (or weakness) of their stop unit; a unit that has stepped up at times and
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New England Patriots
San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: NFC Contenders and Pretenders
11.05.2012 08:17 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
November is the time in the NFL where we separate contenders from pretenders. This week, I focused on the NFC. My power ratings have the Giants, 49ers and Falcons as the top three teams in the conference. Who among the rest can challenge for NFC supremacy? Read on to find out.
Chicago Bears
- This offense just isn't working. Facing a bottom tier defense, Jay Cutler still couldn’t find any receivers open downfield. They committed their 17th false start penalty in the first quarter here, by far the most in the NFL. Starting a drive from their own ten yard line, a false start immediately followed by an illegal hands to the face penalty resulted in a safety. Chicago is ranked #30 in the NFL in passing despite facing a soft early schedule; not what we're used to seeing from Super Bowl contenders in the modern age of football.
Chicago’s blocked punt TD is just one more example of how good these special teams right now. Devin Hester's punt return inside the Titans ten yard line is another, setting up the Bears second score. And a good part of the reason why their passing numbers are so weak is because they've been leading throughout the
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Chicago Bears
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Teddy Covers
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NFL Betting News and Notes Week 4
10.02.2012 01:38 PM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
Houston’s win over Tennessee looked like a lopsided blowout but in reality it was much closer. Houston led 14-7 at the half but Tennessee was moving the football to open the second half when a Matt Hasselbeck tipped ball resulted in a Danieal Manning 55-yard pick six to make it 21-7. From that point, the Texans never looked back and went on to win 38-14 despite being outgained by the Titans 325-297. Even more noteworthy is despite having one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, the Titans ran for 159 yards on 5.4 yards per carry. The Texans are a sound football team in all phases and yes, they are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the season. However, the fact that this week they are laying over a touchdown on the road on Monday Night Football suggests this team doesn’t have much value.
The Chiefs are not very good. That theory became even clearer last week after they lost at home to the San Diego Chargers, 37-20. The Chargers got out to a very quick 17-0 first quarter lead and didn’t look back. Turnovers killed the Chiefs as they coughed up the football six times including three horrible interceptions by Matt Cassel. Kansas City outgained
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Ian Cameron
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Handicapper Teddy Covers talks NFL Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals
05.29.2012 06:54 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
When I first moved to Las Vegas just prior to the start of the preseason in August 1998, NFL season win totals were just starting to pop up around town. By the early 2000’s, most sportsbooks in Vegas were posting NFL win totals by the time training camps opened in late July. Over the past five years, we’ve seen those NFL win totals get posted earlier and earlier – first early July, then June.
Here in 2012, the markets move earlier and more aggressively than ever. Some offshore sportsbooks posted win totals for the upcoming season within days of the Giants victory over the Patriots in the Super Bowl; albeit with very low limits. And here in Las Vegas, it was Christmas in May this past week when three major players – Cantor Gaming, MGM-Mirage and LVH – all released their 2012 NFL Regular Season Over/Under Win totals, with limits high enough to attract a nice chunk of wiseguy money.
Cantor was the first to market, and releasing their NFL win totals last Wednesday. As the first local shop to post numbers, with relatively high limits ($3K) that cater to sharp bettors, the action was fast and furious on the trading floor (or the betting
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Cantor Gaming's NFL regular season pointspreads now available
05.09.2012 10:38 AM
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Here are Cantor Gaming's lines for every NFL regular season game through Week 16. These are available at the Palms, Venetian, Lagasse’s, Hard Rock, Cosmopolitan, Tropicana and M Casino. Limits are currently $2,000.
WEEK 1
Dallas Cowboys (+3) at New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts (+9.5) at Chicago Bears
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Cleveland Browns
Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at New York Jets
Washington Redskins (+9.5) at New Orleans Saints
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) at Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins (+6) at Houston Texans
St. Louis Rams (+9.5) at Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons (PICK) at Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks (+2) at Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) at Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Baltimore Ravens
San Diego Chargers (PICK) at Oakland Raiders
WEEK 2
Chicago Bears (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) at New York Giants
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at
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Horizon League Betting News and Game Previews 2-23-2012
02.23.2012 10:07 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
With the conference tournament set to begin next Tuesday, February 28, tonight’s Horizon League games are extremely important for seedings. There is a mad scramble for the No. 2 through No. 6 seeds that likely won’t be fully settled tonight. The coveted No. 2 slot means a direct ticket right into the tourney semifinals and No. 3 through No. 6 guarantee first round home floor and with a win, a second round home game as well. There’s a lot of incentive to win for eight of the league’s ten teams so here’s a game-by-game look at what’s at stake tonight. I give an opinion on the games where I feel there may be a slight edge.
Detroit @ Cleveland State
– Just two weeks ago, the Vikings were on a five game winning streak and in the driver’s seat for the conference tournament’s No. 1 seed. Their unexpected 59-41 home loss to Valparaiso that night started a horrendous five-game losing streak (both SU and ATS) that has them clinging to hopes of the No. 2 seed. To make that happen, CSU must win against Detroit and Saturday against Wright State, and have Valparaiso win Friday at home against
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Rob Veno
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