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November

27

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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Detroit Titans at Oregon Ducks

11.17.2014     09:58 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Detroit at Oregon -10.5 O/U 151
Recommendation: Over


Expecting to see a lot of pace in tonight's Oregon-Detroit matchup. The Ducks hung 107 in their opener against Coppin State and while the Titans are poised to put up much more resistance, we're still likely to see in the range of 150 possessions, which makes it reasonable to think the home side reaches the mid-80's. Detroit is a team that has historically been willing to play at a fast clip under head coach Ray McCallum. The Titans struggled offensively last year without the services of McCallum's son, Ray. Jr., who is now in the NBA. With a number of guards now a year more experienced plus in influx of transfers, this is a squad that should improve on last year's dismal 1.00 ppp. The biggest thing I noticed with Detroit is not just a willingness but a desire to play fast. Last year, in games against up-tempo Toledo, NC State, Oakland we saw scores of 158, 166, 162, and 143, and 154 in regulation. Oregon meanwhile has a strong track record of high scoring games in the non-conference with 10 of its last 13 dating back to last season topping 150 points in regulation. The games that didn't were all Read more


Tags: College Basketball Detroit Titans Oregon Ducks Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC News and Notes

11.10.2014     08:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Cleveland Browns went into Thursday Night’s matchup at Cincinnati with a winning record, but without much respect from the betting markets.  Cleveland had spent the last month feasting on the weak, facing off against the likes of the Titans, Jaguars, Raiders and Bucs in their previous five games; arguably the four worst teams in the NFL.  The Browns didn’t blow out any of those squads; locked in tight, competitive games each time except their only loss during that span – a blowout defeat at Jacksonville.

Without pro bowl center Alex Mack in the lineup over their previous three games, the Browns offense became completely one-dimensional; a team that couldn’t run the football one iota.  Against Tampa’s shoddy rush D, it was 26 carries for 50 yards.  The week before, it was 25 rushes for 39 yards.  The week before that, it was 30 rushes for 69 yards.  That’s less than two yards per carry against weaklings.

So what did the Browns do in their step-up game on Thursday Night at Cincinnati?  Simple – they dominated on both sides of the football, start to finish, rushing for 170 yards and Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Gambling Update: Sportsbooks post lines on remaining three games

10.10.2014     09:07 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Earlier this morning, CRIS posted lines on the three NFL games that were kept off the board due to "key" injuries. Tennessee will start quarterback Charlie Whitehurst against Jacksonville. The Titans opened -4 and were bet up to -5. No total yet. Calvin Johnson was downgraded to doubtful while Teddy Bridgewater is now probable. As a result, the Lions opened -1 but the Vikings have taken money and are now -1.5/-2 point favorites. And Arizona is still debating between quarterbacks Drew Stanton and Logan Thomas. Carson Palmer (shoulder) is unlikely to play. CRIS opened the Cardinals -2.5 and it was bet up to -3 with no total.





NFL Gambling: Sportsbook keep three games off the board due to injuries

10.09.2014     02:17 PM     Read more


Tags: NFL Tennessee Titans Detroit Lions Minnesota Vikings Arizona Cardinals




NFL Betting: Recapping recent Week 1 line moves

09.02.2014     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick look at the some of the recent line moves in the NFL betting markets...

New Orleans at Atlanta: The Falcons opened -1.5 during the summer but by mid-August the Saints were -1.5/-2 favorites. Last week, New Orleans was popped again and is now -3 (ev/-105) across the board.

Minnesota at St. Louis: The Rams were -6/-6.5 for much of the summer. Now that Sam Bradford is out, the market has settled in at -4/-3.5.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: The Ravens never really threatened to go to -3, but all of the +2.5's were taken out as they are now -1 vs. the Bengals.

Buffalo at Chicago: Bears have bounced back and forth -6.5/-7. There is some opinion on this one with Chicago -7 (-110) at CRIS and -6.5 (-110) at Greek and Cantor.

Tennessee at Kansas City: A slow trickle of Titans' money pushed them from +6 to +3.5. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs -3 (w/ juice) come game day.

San Francisco at Dallas: Another one with varying opinion. San Fran opened -3.5 and was bet up to -6. But recent Cowboys' support has the 49ers settled in at Read more


Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 10

11.13.2013     08:27 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The red hot Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers are the hottest team in the NFL both SU and ATS following their 10-9 victory as 6-point underdogs at San Francisco. Carolina is on a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS roll with wins over Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and the 49ers. As a result oddsmakers and the betting markets have been forced to adjust as we see the Panthers favored by -2.5 (with juice) for Monday night’s game against New England. Note that Carolina was a small home underdog to the New York Giants back in Week 3 prior to the start of their winning streak. And when Cantor Gaming released its summer lines, the Patriots (who come in off of a bye) were field goal chalk.

The Denver Broncos Over train finally stops chugging
One of the strongest betting trends of the season finally saw its unblemished streak come to an end as Denver’s 28-20 win over San Diego last week fell 10 points short of the closing line.  The thing that stuck out to me in that contest was the fair amount of improvement from Denver’s defense. The Broncos held the Chargers to just 329 total yards which is well under their Read more


Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers New England Patriots Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs Ian Cameron




NFL Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings - Week 5

10.03.2013     07:01 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

An updated look at our estimated Power Ratings for the NFL based on how the market is pricing teams this week as of late Wednesday afternoon...

Estimated NFL Market Power Ratings

90: Denver

87: Seattle

84: New Orleans (at home), San Francisco, Green Bay

83: New Orleans (on the road)

82: New England

81: Houston, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Detroit

80: Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, Baltimore, Kansas City

79: Carolina, San Diego

78: Washington

77: Philadelphia

76: St. Louis, NY Giants, Pittsburgh

75: Minnesota, Arizona, Cleveland

74: NY Jets (at home), Buffalo, Tennessee (with Fitzpatrick), Tampa Bay (with Glennon)

73: NY Jets (on the road)

71: Oakland

68: Jacksonville

It looks to me like the market is “adding a point” in this week’s pointspreads to the teams who had a bye last week (Carolina and Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicpaping: Week 2 Betting and Statistical Recap

09.16.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run the numbers…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15. Sloppiness is a quickfire stat to measure execution…the formula is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes…lower is better because you want to avoid sloppiness)

San Diego 33 (+7.5), Philadelphia 30

S-Diego: 539 yards, 6.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 67% third downs

Philadel: 511 yards, 8.7 per-play, 1 turnovers, 45% third downs

(Whoever had the ball last was going to win, because both offenses were getting enough YPP at will to move the ball into scoring position. First glaring sign of Philly’s defensive weaknesses this Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Handicapping the best and worst NFL secondaries

07.29.2013     11:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of those squads are lined at 8.5 wins or higher again this year.

The next grouping of quarterbacks isn’t as easy to establish.  I’d probably put the likes of Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Colin Kaepernick in this grouping; and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to include Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton or Andrew Luck.  Just about every one of those quarterbacks also plays for a playoff contending team.

The very bottom of the pecking order is also very easy to establish.  On my list, I’d include Christian Ponder in Minnesota, Brandon Weeden in Cleveland, Mark Sanchez in New York, Jake Locker in Tennessee, Blaine Gabbert or Chad Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers Las Vegas Wise Guys Report: NFL Season O/U Wins

07.15.2013     10:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve written a couple of columns about the first NFL win totals posted here in Las Vegas. Now that the betting markets are starting to mature, it’s time to take another look at the Over/Under win totals for all 32 teams for the coming year. This week’s focus is on strength of schedule for the upcoming campaign.

I closed out my last column on NFL win totals by looking back at last year’s final strength of schedule, based on my power rating numbers for each opponent on the week that the game was played. Here was my final assessment:

“The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played. The Saints weren’t far behind. Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.
“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league. Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates. In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers for 2013.”

That Read more


Tags: NFL Season Wins Teddy Covers



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November

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