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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part II

08.10.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2014 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple -- getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2015.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google ‘2015 NFL Strength of Schedule’ and you’ll find countless charts exactly like this one.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (.579)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (.563)
3. Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Drafting quarterbacks in the first round

05.04.2015     08:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
To QB or not to QB; that is the question. And when it comes to breaking down the NFL Draft, those QB questions stand paramount.

Jameis Winston was loaded with character questions; a QB with a lack of maturity and poor decision making off the field made his tenure in Tallahassee controversial, to say the least.  Marcus Mariota didn’t have those same character concerns but he can’t match Winston’s full skill set either – there was no ‘Manning- Leaf debate’ over who would go #1 overall between the two prospects.  And yet that duo was drafted #1 and #2 overall by the Bucs and Titans in the NFL draft this past weekend.

There are two basic schools of thought when it comes to taking a QB with a first round pick in the NFL Draft.  One thought is that high draft choice QB busts set the franchise back, often for years.  There are as many (or more) busts as there are QBs that develop into effective starters.  Wasting a first round pick on a QB that doesn’t pan out – particularly when reaching or trading up to acquire the pick – can be nothing short of devastating for a franchise.  Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




College Basketball Betting: Arizona State makes lineup changes

12.23.2014     06:39 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Following back-to-back losses including a triple OT affair at home against Lehigh, Arizona State's Herb Sendek says lineup changes are coming. The Sun Devils play host to Detroit this afternoon.


"We're going with a lineup that we believe gives us a high-energy quotient and has the potential to be a good defensive unit," said Sendek, adding that his overall rotation could tighten as well. (He played 11 in the first seven minutes of the Lehigh loss.)

"We have too many breakdowns," Sendek said. "Sometimes the players themselves think they're coming out because they made a turnover, but (often) it's for defensive assignments. We just got to do a much better job."






Tags: College Basketball Arizona State Sun Devils Detroit Titans




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Detroit Titans at Oregon Ducks

11.17.2014     09:58 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Detroit at Oregon -10.5 O/U 151
Recommendation: Over


Expecting to see a lot of pace in tonight's Oregon-Detroit matchup. The Ducks hung 107 in their opener against Coppin State and while the Titans are poised to put up much more resistance, we're still likely to see in the range of 150 possessions, which makes it reasonable to think the home side reaches the mid-80's. Detroit is a team that has historically been willing to play at a fast clip under head coach Ray McCallum. The Titans struggled offensively last year without the services of McCallum's son, Ray. Jr., who is now in the NBA. With a number of guards now a year more experienced plus in influx of transfers, this is a squad that should improve on last year's dismal 1.00 ppp. The biggest thing I noticed with Detroit is not just a willingness but a desire to play fast. Last year, in games against up-tempo Toledo, NC State, Oakland we saw scores of 158, 166, 162, and 143, and 154 in regulation. Oregon meanwhile has a strong track record of high scoring games in the non-conference with 10 of its last 13 dating back to last season topping 150 points in regulation. The games that didn't were all Read more



Tags: College Basketball Detroit Titans Oregon Ducks Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC News and Notes

11.10.2014     08:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Cleveland Browns went into Thursday Night’s matchup at Cincinnati with a winning record, but without much respect from the betting markets.  Cleveland had spent the last month feasting on the weak, facing off against the likes of the Titans, Jaguars, Raiders and Bucs in their previous five games; arguably the four worst teams in the NFL.  The Browns didn’t blow out any of those squads; locked in tight, competitive games each time except their only loss during that span – a blowout defeat at Jacksonville.

Without pro bowl center Alex Mack in the lineup over their previous three games, the Browns offense became completely one-dimensional; a team that couldn’t run the football one iota.  Against Tampa’s shoddy rush D, it was 26 carries for 50 yards.  The week before, it was 25 rushes for 39 yards.  The week before that, it was 30 rushes for 69 yards.  That’s less than two yards per carry against weaklings.

So what did the Browns do in their step-up game on Thursday Night at Cincinnati?  Simple – they dominated on both sides of the football, start to finish, rushing for 170 yards and Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Gambling Update: Sportsbooks post lines on remaining three games

10.10.2014     09:07 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Earlier this morning, CRIS posted lines on the three NFL games that were kept off the board due to "key" injuries. Tennessee will start quarterback Charlie Whitehurst against Jacksonville. The Titans opened -4 and were bet up to -5. No total yet. Calvin Johnson was downgraded to doubtful while Teddy Bridgewater is now probable. As a result, the Lions opened -1 but the Vikings have taken money and are now -1.5/-2 point favorites. And Arizona is still debating between quarterbacks Drew Stanton and Logan Thomas. Carson Palmer (shoulder) is unlikely to play. CRIS opened the Cardinals -2.5 and it was bet up to -3 with no total.





NFL Gambling: Sportsbook keep three games off the board due to injuries

10.09.2014     02:17 PM     Read more



Tags: NFL Tennessee Titans Detroit Lions Minnesota Vikings Arizona Cardinals




NFL Betting: Recapping recent Week 1 line moves

09.02.2014     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick look at the some of the recent line moves in the NFL betting markets...

New Orleans at Atlanta: The Falcons opened -1.5 during the summer but by mid-August the Saints were -1.5/-2 favorites. Last week, New Orleans was popped again and is now -3 (ev/-105) across the board.

Minnesota at St. Louis: The Rams were -6/-6.5 for much of the summer. Now that Sam Bradford is out, the market has settled in at -4/-3.5.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: The Ravens never really threatened to go to -3, but all of the +2.5's were taken out as they are now -1 vs. the Bengals.

Buffalo at Chicago: Bears have bounced back and forth -6.5/-7. There is some opinion on this one with Chicago -7 (-110) at CRIS and -6.5 (-110) at Greek and Cantor.

Tennessee at Kansas City: A slow trickle of Titans' money pushed them from +6 to +3.5. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs -3 (w/ juice) come game day.

San Francisco at Dallas: Another one with varying opinion. San Fran opened -3.5 and was bet up to -6. But recent Cowboys' support has the 49ers settled in at Read more



Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 10

11.13.2013     08:27 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The red hot Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers are the hottest team in the NFL both SU and ATS following their 10-9 victory as 6-point underdogs at San Francisco. Carolina is on a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS roll with wins over Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and the 49ers. As a result oddsmakers and the betting markets have been forced to adjust as we see the Panthers favored by -2.5 (with juice) for Monday night’s game against New England. Note that Carolina was a small home underdog to the New York Giants back in Week 3 prior to the start of their winning streak. And when Cantor Gaming released its summer lines, the Patriots (who come in off of a bye) were field goal chalk.

The Denver Broncos Over train finally stops chugging
One of the strongest betting trends of the season finally saw its unblemished streak come to an end as Denver’s 28-20 win over San Diego last week fell 10 points short of the closing line.  The thing that stuck out to me in that contest was the fair amount of improvement from Denver’s defense. The Broncos held the Chargers to just 329 total yards which is well under their Read more



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers New England Patriots Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs Ian Cameron




NFL Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings - Week 5

10.03.2013     07:01 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

An updated look at our estimated Power Ratings for the NFL based on how the market is pricing teams this week as of late Wednesday afternoon...

Estimated NFL Market Power Ratings

90: Denver

87: Seattle

84: New Orleans (at home), San Francisco, Green Bay

83: New Orleans (on the road)

82: New England

81: Houston, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Detroit

80: Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, Baltimore, Kansas City

79: Carolina, San Diego

78: Washington

77: Philadelphia

76: St. Louis, NY Giants, Pittsburgh

75: Minnesota, Arizona, Cleveland

74: NY Jets (at home), Buffalo, Tennessee (with Fitzpatrick), Tampa Bay (with Glennon)

73: NY Jets (on the road)

71: Oakland

68: Jacksonville

It looks to me like the market is “adding a point” in this week’s pointspreads to the teams who had a bye last week (Carolina and Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 01, 2015 03:16 PM.