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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Understanding the MLB Betting Markets Part II

04.04.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I illustrated how the quants have come to dominate the MLB betting marketplace over the course of the last few seasons, completely changing the value equation moving forward.  Advanced metric starting pitching stats have become the primary basis for all baseball moneylines, leaving a market that devalues every other aspect of the game.  That leaves opportunities for alternative strategies to succeed here in 2016 and beyond.

I used several examples last week to demonstrate my point about the modern markets.  The following example is probably the best of the bunch, using the strikeouts per nine innings advanced metric stat (K/9).

In 2005, the top eight pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings were Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brett Myers, Pedro Martinez, John Lackey, AJ Burnett and Jason Schmidt.  Six of the eight starters produced a profit for their supporters, and if you bet on the leaders in the K/9 stat for the Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates

08.08.2015     07:40 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Los Angeles (Latos) at Pittsburgh (Liriano) -125 O/U 7
Recommendation: Under


Ever since returning from an alleged knee injury, we've witnessed a completely different Mat Latos as he sports a 2.79 ERA and .196 BAA over eight starts. It's all ted to a rather large spike in velocity (cortisone shot?) which remains at a higher level than prior to his trip to the DL. Latos is typically pretty tough on the right-handed bat which is a decent fit against this Pirates lineup so I expect him to throw well this afternoon. Francisco Liriano has been one of the most consistently effective pitchers in baseball having allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but three outings this season. Even more impressive is the nine starts he allowed either zero or one run. Liriano has been tough on everyone but particularly the left-handed bat with a .184 BAA against this season. That's bad news for a Dodgers lineup that features lefties Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier and Joc Pederson. And LA's top OPS man, Justin Turner (.950) remains on the DL until next week. Wind or temps not expected to play a part in what sets up for a good old fashion pitchers’ duel. We'll look Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Pittsburgh Pirates OTTO Sports




MLB Handicapping: Money burners Kluber, Liriano, and Sanchez all tossing on Tuesday

06.09.2015     09:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting situation on today's MLB card with the three least profitable starting pitchers in baseball all tossing and all favored. It speaks volumes to the random nature of baseball, especially when you consider the fringe arms of Mike Pelfrey and Nick Martinez are a combined 16-6 +15 units.

Francisco Liriano -180 vs. Milwaukee
Pittsburgh's Record when Liriano throws: 3-8 -6.9 units
Key Stat: Liriano ranks 9th in MLB with a 2.77 xFIP

Anibal Sanchez -125 vs. Chicago
Detroit's Record when Sanchez throws: 3-9 -8.2 units

Corey Kluber -190 vs. Seattle
Cleveland's Record when Kluber throws: 3-9 -8.6 units
Key Stat: Kluber ranks 3rd in MLB with a 2.37 xFIP




Tags: MLB




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: National League Preview

04.13.2015     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I wrote a team-by-team overview of the 15 American League squads.  This week, I’ll shift my focus to the National League, breaking down each team from a Las Vegas perspective.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order, by division.

A week ago, the Atlanta Braves were viewed as likely bottom feeders following a massive offseason rebuild that resulted in only six players from opening day last year returning on opening day in 2015; lined in the same range as teams like Arizona, Colorado and Minnesota.  One week later and the market view of Atlanta has changed at least somewhat thanks to a 5-1 record with the best run differential in the NL.  Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller and Alex Wood all hav top-of-the-rotation stuff, but it’s hard to picture this anemic lineup continuing to deliver steady run support.

The Miami Marlins hung around in the wild card race into the dog days of August last year before Giancarlo Stanton’s Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

03.27.2015     07:18 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

With a solid offense, defense, and pitching, the Pittsburgh Pirates have put themselves in good position to once again contend in the National League Central.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2014 W-L:
88-74
2014 O/U: 74-79-9
2014 Profits: +6
2015 O/U Wins: 83.5
2015 NL Central Odds: +245
Projected Starting Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, AJ Burnett, Charlie Morton, Vance Worley
Key Departures: Edison Volquez, Russell Martin
Key Additions: Corey Hart, A.J. Burnett

Handicapper's Take: "After years of toiling at the bottom of the National League the Pittsburgh Pirates are on good footing. They've embraced the 'smart baseball' mantra by relying heavily on sabermetrics and it's paid off in spades. The pitching staff is rock solid led by star-in-waiting Gerritt Cole (3.25 xFIP). Francisco Liriano is still only 31 years old and while unlikely to improve he can chew up quality innings in the National League. AJ Burnett is back for Read more



Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Padres at Pittsbugh Pirates

08.09.2014     06:57 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Diego (Stults) at Pittsburgh (Liriano) -160 O/U 7
Recommendation: Pittsburgh


After a rough start following a stint on the DL, Pittsburgh's Francisco Liriano has been absolutely dominant. His velocity is up and the arm action on his changeup is as good as I have ever seen it. Over his last four starts, Liriano sports a 1.44 ERA, 29-7 K-to-BB ratio, and 51 swinging strikes. Bottom line is he's a completely different pitcher than he was two months ago when his ERA was hovering around 4.50. San Diego's Eric Stults too has seen a slight uptick in velocity and thus performance but his margin for error continues to be small away from Petco Park. Stults' road ERA shows 5.78 and while PNC is favorable for lefties, the Pirates should be able to plate a fair amount of runs. While Arizona and Colorado have quit on their respective seasons, San Diego continues to fight (52-62, -23 run diff). However, the Pirates own a lot of advantages tonight including the most important one, starting Read more



Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Pittsburgh Pirates Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

06.11.2014     11:44 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago Cubs (Hammel) +115 at Pittsburgh (Cumpton) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Chicago


Jason Hammel has been an under-the-radar gem for the Cubs this year, allowing three earned runs or less in eleven of his twelve previous starts this year. He's been Chicago's most profitable starter to support, ranked among the top 30 pitchers in profitability.

And Hammel is in great current form, throwing 14 innings of shutout ball while striking out 16 and walking only a single batter in his last two trips to the hill.  He's got a great track record against these Pirates, including a pair of wins against Pittsburgh earlier in the season, allowing only five hits in 13.2 innings of work.

The Cubs are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They smacked the Pirates for seven runs last night, notching their sixth win in the last eight games.  The same cannot be said of Pittsburgh, losers of three of their last four on this homestand while struggling to Read more



Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh Pirates Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Wednesday Betting Recap

07.25.2013     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ll start with the Interleague game, then take everything else in rotation order…

*Oh no they DIDN’T! Once again, it looked like the Dodgers were finally going to lose a game. They were down 3-2 in the ninth…and hadn’t scored a run in about 90 minutes. A rally to tie it in the ninth forced extra innings…then the Dodgers scored FIVE in the tenth inning to win 8-3. That pushes them to 6-0 since the ASB, and runs their longterm streak to 23-5 the last 28 games. Note that Puig scored the tying run in the ninth with two outs. He was on first after a walk (hey, he can walk!). He ran aggressively on a single to center…the CF made an error…and Puig came all the way around to score. Then he homered in the tenth to help build on what had become a 5-3 lead. The “first half” score was 2-2, with Nolasco throwing four scoreless before tiring a bit. His pitching line is now 0-3-1-2 as a Dodger, with an average and median of Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




MLB Betting Recap: Los Angeles Dodgers continue to roll

07.24.2013     12:44 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It looked like this was going to be the night the Los Angeles Dodgers finally cooled off. They were trailing 8-3 after six inning in Toronto. Nobody would blame them for calling it a night before trying to come back and win the series Wednesday.

Instead, they rallied for a thrilling 10-9 win that was important for several reasons:

*It brought them to 22-5 their last 27 games

*It brought them to 5-0 since the All-Star Break

*Which means nothing but wins a full time through the rotation

*Oh, that’s 5-0 on the ROAD

*It kept them in first place in the NL West

Now…there are still come caveats about this long winning run. The Dodgers have managed to avoid all the good teams in baseball! They were beating up on their NL West brethren…and we’ve talked a few times about how that whole division has basically collapsed in recent weeks outside of the Dodgers. Their recent Interleague draws have been against the Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Stat Intelligence




MLB Betting Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

07.19.2013     10:02 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There’s nothing to indicate that anything will be different in the third head to head confrontation since June 1st between these two starters. Each game has resulted in a pitcher’s duel with Cincinnati winning very low scoring affairs.

Despite the pair of losses, Pirates starter Francisco Liriano has been tremendous striking out 17 in the six inning stints while posting a 1.00 WHIP, 2.25 ERA and .297 OBPA. He has displayed power and control striking out 17 while allowing only three walks. His signature slider matches up very well against this lineup. The noticeable difference between the starts were the two solo home runs he allowed in the game played here at Great American Ballpark. Liriano has only allowed three HR’s in his 76 2/3 innings this season so expect him to again keep the Reds offense very quiet tonight.

As good as Liriano has been in his matchups vs. Cincinnati, RH Mike Leake has been even more dominant against the Pirates. In his 13 innings, Leake has allowed Pittsburgh just one run and 15 total bases (11 singles, 2 doubles and 2 walks). At home this season Leake has a 1.11 WHIP which is outstanding in this hitter’s Read more



Tags: MLB Free Play Rob Veno Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds



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