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MLB Handicapping: Minnesota's trio of young pitchers are producing profits
06.06.2012 07:06 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
I spoke on yesterday's Sportsmemo Podcast about some of Minnesota's young starting pitchers. Of the current three – Scott Diamond, PJ Walters and Cole De Vries – none are considered “highly touted” nor are they all that “young” being 25, 27 and 27 respectively. But while Diamond and Walters had thrown a few innings at the MLB level prior to this year, it appears that the trio has had somewhat of an advantage this season in facing various teams for the first time. Despite being 13 games under .500 for the year, the Twins are 10-4 +9.2 units when the trio starts. That is obviously better than the 10-21 record the team has when Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn toss. The problem though is how is the trio going to handle facing teams for a second and third time? Like a lot of Minnesota pitchers, Diamond, Walters and De Vries don't miss a lot of bats and have displayed average velocity. Combined, they've posted 53 strikeouts in 85 innings. That worries me when innings and fatigue start to become factors later in the season – assuming that they make it that far.
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Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapping: Minnesota's Liriano hoping for second straight solid outing
06.05.2012 01:58 PM
Printer Friendly
Minnesota
(Liriano) at
Kansas City
(Chen) -125 O/U 9
Of pitchers who have thrown 40 or more innings this season, Francisco Liriano has the second highest walk rate (6.3 per 9 IP) in the league behind the disaster of all disasters, Ubaldo Jimenez. But after being demoted to bullpen and given yet another chance to start, Liriano showed above average command last time out against Oakland with only two walks. It turned out to be his best outing of the season – albeit at pitcher friendly Target Field against the weakest offense in the American League. Nevertheless, it was a step in the right direction and one that occurred in large part by Liriano keeping the ball
down in the strike zone
. He's by no means completely trustworthy (7.20 ERA, 1.88 WHIP) at this point but worth following for tonight’s start in Kansas City.
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Kansas City Royals
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MLB Betting News: If you are a pitcher in Minnesota's minor league system, be ready
05.24.2012 07:09 AM
Printer Friendly
Quick! Can you name Minnesota’s starting rotation? We’ll toss you a freebie with Carl Pavano. Beyond that, you had better be a full-time bettor or among the top three Twins fans in the entire world to list the remaining four. How about PJ Walters, Scott Diamond, Anthony Swarzak and making his
MLB debut tonight, right-hander Cole DeVries
. DeVries is a local kid who pitched at the University of Minnesota. The
book on him
is that he doesn't throw hard but rather relies on off-speed pitches and command – he should fit right in with the Twins. One report listed him as an "extreme fly-ball pitcher." Doesn't take much to figure out that this kid is going to be up against it. But if you are Minnesota, why not give him a shot at this point? Better to figure out what you have to work with in the future rather than carting out poop-on-stick arms like Jason Marquis and Francisco Liriano.
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MLB
Minnesota Twins
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MLB Betting Notes: Minnesota's starting pitching has been historically bad
05.17.2012 07:32 AM
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The Minnesota Twins have started eight different pitchers this season: Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, Liam Hendriks, Anthony Swarzak, Scott Diamond and PJ Walters. Their combined numbers are:
203.2 innings, 146 earned runs, 6.45 ERA, 250 hits, 38 home runs, 66 walks and 118 strikeouts
. Walters is a +195 underdog at Detroit today.
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MLB
Minnesota Twins
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MLB Handicapping: Humber makes first start following perfect game
04.26.2012 06:50 AM
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We compiled the results of pitchers off a no-hitter or perfect game dating back to 2006. The results have been pretty good as only Carlos Zambrano (1.2 IP, 8 ERs) and Francisco Liriano (3 IP, 4 ERs) blew up in their next outing. Chicago’s Philip Humber, who last Saturday tossed a perfect game (96 pitches) against Seattle, is a -120 home favorite vs. Boston.
Pitcher Results Following No-Hitter or Perfect Game as of 4/26/2012
Year
Pitcher
Innings
Earned Runs
Team Result
2012
Philip Humber
???
???
???
2011
Ervin Santana
9
1
Win
2011
Justin Verlander
8
1
Win
2011
Francisco Liriano
3
4
Loss
2010
Roy Halladay
7
4
Loss
2010
Matt Garza
7
4
Loss
2010
Edwin Jackson
5
4
Win
2010
Roy Halladay
7
2
Win
2010
Dallas Braden
8
4
Loss
2010
Ubaldo Jimenez
7.1
0
Win
2009
Mark Buehrle
6.1
5
Loss
2009
Jonathan Sanchez
6
3
Loss
2008
Carlos Zambrano
1.2
8
Loss
2008
Jon Lester
5
3
Loss
2007
Clay Buchholz
3
0
Win
2007
Justin Verlander
6
3
Win
2007
Mark Buehrle
7
3
Win
2006
Anibal Sanchez
7
3
Win
Results
103.1
4.52 ERA
9-8
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MLB
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Oakland A's at Toronto Blue Jays
08.09.2011 11:14 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Oakland (Harden) at Toronto (Cecil) -140 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over
The single quietest streak of the entire MLB season – Oakland’s amazing run of overs since the All-Star break – continues unabated and basically unnoticed by the betting markets. The A’s 17-1-4 O/U in their 22 games since the All-Star break; a streak that’s very much worth riding again today.
The A’s offense is in a completely different stratosphere now than it was for most of 2011. A team that spent the entire first half of the season struggling to produce any offense at all has now plated four or more runs in 17 of their last 18 games. That includes some particularly strong offensive contests, scoring seven or more on eight different occasions during this span.
Don’t expect Brett Cecil to shut down the A’s lineup tonight either – Bob Melvin’s squad has been bashing lefties of late, hitting David Price (twice), Francisco Liriano,
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Oakland A's
Rich Harden
Toronto Blue Jays
Brett Cecil
Teddy Covers
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MLB News and Notes: We've got openers!
07.13.2011 11:05 AM
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A return to normalcy awaits on Thursday as the Major League Baseball season resumes. Opening lines for tomorrow's games are up at select brick and mortars as well as offshore and have already begun to move.
7:05 pm Pitchers Total MoneyLn
901 Florida Marlins A Sanchez -R +105
902 Chicago Cubs M Garza -R -115
7:40 pm Pitchers Total MoneyLn
903 Milwaukee Brewers Y Gallardo -R +120
904 Colorado Rockies U Jimenez -R 8½ -130
9:05 pm Pitchers Total MoneyLn
905 San Francisco Giants M Bumgarner -L -103
906 San Diego Padres A Harang -R 6½ -107
6:05 pm Pitchers Total MoneyLn
907 Cleveland Indians J Masterson -R 8½ -110
908 Baltimore Orioles J Guthrie
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins
06.19.2011 07:28 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
San Diego (Moseley) at Minnesota (Liriano) -147 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under
As long as key numbers like 8 and 7.5 remain on Minnesota games at Target Field, I'll be betting unders on a regular basis. In Game 1 of the series, both the Padres and Twins threw arguably their weakest starters and it resulted in 11 total runs. But yesterday, with the class of pitching up a notch (Baker, Stauffer), both offenses struggled with 15 strikeouts, 10 hits and one run. Tonight, we have two solid starters on the hill and a total of 7.5. San Diego's Dustin Moseley was skipped in the rotation after dislocating his left shoulder while swinging a bat. Reports indicate that he'll be good to go. His peripheral stats show that opposing teams are going to put the bat on the ball but he should be safe against this Twins lineup, especially with lefties Kubel, Morneau and Span out with various injuries. A month ago, Francisco Liriano was a bet against pitcher; even in tossing a no-hitter, he didn't seem right. But he’s
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MLB
Minnesota Twins
Francisco Liriano
San Diego Padres
Dustin Moseley
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
06.07.2011 07:32 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Minnesota (Liriano) at Cleveland (Carrasco)
Recommendation: Minnesota Team Total Over 4
Yesterday we keyed in on Minnesota's team total as they got to Cleveland's Josh Tomlin for six runs in six innings. Today, I'm going right back to the well with a similar arm on the hill in Carlos Carrasco. Like Tomlin, Carrasco doesn't miss a lot of bats and has low strikeout numbers (32 in 57.1 IP). Last night, Minnesota was able to get five lefties in the lineup and I would expect the same thing tonight with Carrasco showing dramatic splits (.214 BAA/.581 OPS vs. righties; .368 BAA/.958 OPS vs. lefties). I'm not sure what exactly we'll get from Minnesota starter Francisco Liriano in his first start off the DL which puts me on the team total over.
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MLB
Cleveland Indians
Carlos Carrasco
Minnesota Twins
Francisco Liriano
Andrew Lange
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Verlander makes first start following no-hitter
05.13.2011 08:35 AM
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Justin Verlander is slated to make his first start since tossing a no-hitter against Toronto last Saturday. We compiled the results of pitchers off a no-hitter or perfect game dating back to 2006. The result by and large were pretty good as only Carlos Zambrano (1.2 IP, 8 ERs) and Francisco Liriano (3 IP, 4 ERs) blew up in their next outing. Six of the 16 pitchers recorded quality starts, including Verlander following his 2007 no-hitter. Clay Buchholz's next appearance actually came out of the bullpen hence the three innings. Verlander is a -178 home favorite against Kansas City tonight.
Pitcher Results Following No-Hitter or Perfect Game
Year
Pitcher
Innings
Earned Runs
Team Result
2011
Justin Verlander
???
???
???
2011
Francisco Liriano
3
4
Loss
2010
Roy Halladay
7
4
Loss
2010
Matt Garza
7
4
Loss
2010
Edwin Jackson
5
4
Win
2010
Roy Halladay
7
2
Win
2010
Dallas Braden
8
4
Loss
2010
Ubaldo Jimenez
7.1
0
Win
2009
Mark Buehrle
6.1
5
Loss
2009
Jonathan Sanchez
6
3
Loss
2008
Carlos Zambrano
1.2
8
Loss
2008
Jon Lester
5
3
Loss
2007
Clay Buchholz
3
0
Win
2007
Justin Verlander
6
3
Win
2007
Mark Buehrle
7
3
Win
2006
Anibal Sanchez
7
3
Win
86.1
5.21 ERA
7-8
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Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander
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