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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: National League Preview

04.13.2015     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I wrote a team-by-team overview of the 15 American League squads.  This week, I’ll shift my focus to the National League, breaking down each team from a Las Vegas perspective.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order, by division.

A week ago, the Atlanta Braves were viewed as likely bottom feeders following a massive offseason rebuild that resulted in only six players from opening day last year returning on opening day in 2015; lined in the same range as teams like Arizona, Colorado and Minnesota.  One week later and the market view of Atlanta has changed at least somewhat thanks to a 5-1 record with the best run differential in the NL.  Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller and Alex Wood all hav top-of-the-rotation stuff, but it’s hard to picture this anemic lineup continuing to deliver steady run support.

The Miami Marlins hung around in the wild card race into the dog days of August last year before Giancarlo Stanton’s Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

03.27.2015     07:18 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

With a solid offense, defense, and pitching, the Pittsburgh Pirates have put themselves in good position to once again contend in the National League Central.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2014 W-L:
88-74
2014 O/U: 74-79-9
2014 Profits: +6
2015 O/U Wins: 83.5
2015 NL Central Odds: +245
Projected Starting Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, AJ Burnett, Charlie Morton, Vance Worley
Key Departures: Edison Volquez, Russell Martin
Key Additions: Corey Hart, A.J. Burnett

Handicapper's Take: "After years of toiling at the bottom of the National League the Pittsburgh Pirates are on good footing. They've embraced the 'smart baseball' mantra by relying heavily on sabermetrics and it's paid off in spades. The pitching staff is rock solid led by star-in-waiting Gerritt Cole (3.25 xFIP). Francisco Liriano is still only 31 years old and while unlikely to improve he can chew up quality innings in the National League. AJ Burnett is back for Read more



Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Padres at Pittsbugh Pirates

08.09.2014     06:57 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Diego (Stults) at Pittsburgh (Liriano) -160 O/U 7
Recommendation: Pittsburgh


After a rough start following a stint on the DL, Pittsburgh's Francisco Liriano has been absolutely dominant. His velocity is up and the arm action on his changeup is as good as I have ever seen it. Over his last four starts, Liriano sports a 1.44 ERA, 29-7 K-to-BB ratio, and 51 swinging strikes. Bottom line is he's a completely different pitcher than he was two months ago when his ERA was hovering around 4.50. San Diego's Eric Stults too has seen a slight uptick in velocity and thus performance but his margin for error continues to be small away from Petco Park. Stults' road ERA shows 5.78 and while PNC is favorable for lefties, the Pirates should be able to plate a fair amount of runs. While Arizona and Colorado have quit on their respective seasons, San Diego continues to fight (52-62, -23 run diff). However, the Pirates own a lot of advantages tonight including the most important one, starting Read more



Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Pittsburgh Pirates Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

06.11.2014     11:44 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago Cubs (Hammel) +115 at Pittsburgh (Cumpton) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Chicago


Jason Hammel has been an under-the-radar gem for the Cubs this year, allowing three earned runs or less in eleven of his twelve previous starts this year. He's been Chicago's most profitable starter to support, ranked among the top 30 pitchers in profitability.

And Hammel is in great current form, throwing 14 innings of shutout ball while striking out 16 and walking only a single batter in his last two trips to the hill.  He's got a great track record against these Pirates, including a pair of wins against Pittsburgh earlier in the season, allowing only five hits in 13.2 innings of work.

The Cubs are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They smacked the Pirates for seven runs last night, notching their sixth win in the last eight games.  The same cannot be said of Pittsburgh, losers of three of their last four on this homestand while struggling to Read more



Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh Pirates Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Wednesday Betting Recap

07.25.2013     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ll start with the Interleague game, then take everything else in rotation order…

*Oh no they DIDN’T! Once again, it looked like the Dodgers were finally going to lose a game. They were down 3-2 in the ninth…and hadn’t scored a run in about 90 minutes. A rally to tie it in the ninth forced extra innings…then the Dodgers scored FIVE in the tenth inning to win 8-3. That pushes them to 6-0 since the ASB, and runs their longterm streak to 23-5 the last 28 games. Note that Puig scored the tying run in the ninth with two outs. He was on first after a walk (hey, he can walk!). He ran aggressively on a single to center…the CF made an error…and Puig came all the way around to score. Then he homered in the tenth to help build on what had become a 5-3 lead. The “first half” score was 2-2, with Nolasco throwing four scoreless before tiring a bit. His pitching line is now 0-3-1-2 as a Dodger, with an average and median of Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




MLB Betting Recap: Los Angeles Dodgers continue to roll

07.24.2013     12:44 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It looked like this was going to be the night the Los Angeles Dodgers finally cooled off. They were trailing 8-3 after six inning in Toronto. Nobody would blame them for calling it a night before trying to come back and win the series Wednesday.

Instead, they rallied for a thrilling 10-9 win that was important for several reasons:

*It brought them to 22-5 their last 27 games

*It brought them to 5-0 since the All-Star Break

*Which means nothing but wins a full time through the rotation

*Oh, that’s 5-0 on the ROAD

*It kept them in first place in the NL West

Now…there are still come caveats about this long winning run. The Dodgers have managed to avoid all the good teams in baseball! They were beating up on their NL West brethren…and we’ve talked a few times about how that whole division has basically collapsed in recent weeks outside of the Dodgers. Their recent Interleague draws have been against the Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Stat Intelligence




MLB Betting Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

07.19.2013     10:02 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There’s nothing to indicate that anything will be different in the third head to head confrontation since June 1st between these two starters. Each game has resulted in a pitcher’s duel with Cincinnati winning very low scoring affairs.

Despite the pair of losses, Pirates starter Francisco Liriano has been tremendous striking out 17 in the six inning stints while posting a 1.00 WHIP, 2.25 ERA and .297 OBPA. He has displayed power and control striking out 17 while allowing only three walks. His signature slider matches up very well against this lineup. The noticeable difference between the starts were the two solo home runs he allowed in the game played here at Great American Ballpark. Liriano has only allowed three HR’s in his 76 2/3 innings this season so expect him to again keep the Reds offense very quiet tonight.

As good as Liriano has been in his matchups vs. Cincinnati, RH Mike Leake has been even more dominant against the Pirates. In his 13 innings, Leake has allowed Pittsburgh just one run and 15 total bases (11 singles, 2 doubles and 2 walks). At home this season Leake has a 1.11 WHIP which is outstanding in this hitter’s Read more



Tags: MLB Free Play Rob Veno Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds




MLB Handicapping: Miami Marlins and New York Mets finding ways to win

07.11.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

On June 6, the Miami Marlins were 16-44, suffering through one of the worst opening 60 game stretches in the history of baseball. The NL East standings since then:

Washington 18-14

Miami 17-13

NY Mets 17-15

Philadelphia 14-17

Atlanta 15-16

Those are through the games of Wednesday July 10, since that division wrapped up early. We joked about Miami and Atlanta turning into each other yesterday or the day before. Miami won today’s series finale easily, meaning they’ve been 2.5 games better than the Braves over a month of action while splitting six games head-to-head.

Imagine how season storylines might have been different if the Marlins and Mets had winning records over their first five weeks of action instead of their last five weeks.

The Mets beat the Giants today. Defending World Champion San Francisco is now 3-16 their last 19 games, and 17-35 over the last two months. Riches to rags. All sorts of bedlam in Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence Miami Marlins New York Mets




MLB Betting Free Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

06.17.2013     11:10 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Liriano) +105 at Cincinnati (Leake) O/U 8
Recommendation: Pittsburgh


For as much as the betting markets have respected Cincinnati this year while continuing to disrespect Pittsburgh, the bottom line is that only one half game separates these two teams in the standings right now.  Pittsburgh has been the single most profitable team in all of baseball to support thusfar in 2013, more than nine units better than the Reds; a clear indicator of that vague concept of value has legitimate meaning when it comes to the Pirates.

Pittsburgh starter Francisco Liriano was the heir apparent to Johan Santana as the ace of the Twins rotation when Santana left for New York.  But injuries derailed his progress, and he was a bottom tier hurler for the Twins and White Sox in both 2011 and 2012.  That’s why his sudden re-emergence as an ace since coming off the Read more



Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

06.17.2013     10:03 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Liriano) at Cincinnati (Leake) -115 O/U 8
Recommendation: Under


Important series between these teams who begin the three game set separated by a half game in the NL Central. The Pirates starter Francisco Liriano has been a bettor’s dream this season as the money has flowed toward him in almost all of his starts. Today’s game appears no different as the Bucs have been bet down slightly from the opener and perhaps with good reason. Not only has Liriano had overwhelming stuff led by his top notch slider, but he dominated this Reds lineup just 16 days ago. In that June 1 outing, the Pittsburgh LH went six full, allowed just 4 hits and one run while posting an 11:1 K-BB ratio. He walked away on the wrong end of a 2-0 final in that game because Reds RH Mike Leake was dominant as well throwing six shutout innings. Leake yielded seven hits (all singles) and gained redemption for an earlier loss to Pittsburgh where he was lit up for 10 hits and five runs. The RH has Read more



Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds Rob Veno



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