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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors ready for Super Bowl XLIX

01.26.2015     10:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s Super Bowl time again.  I use this line every year because it’s true – this IS the moral equivalent of Christmas Day for many sports bettors.  Yet, much like last year, many of the professional full time bettors that I know are rather disappointed with the proposition betting opportunities for Super Bowl XLIX – there’s simply not much low hanging fruit.  The biggest and best sportsbooks (market leaders both here in Vegas and offshore) have learned from previous mistakes.  Weak numbers do NOT abound in 2015.

Let me start with the game itself.  The Super Bowl itself has been an underdog bettor’s paradise in recent years.   The Seahawks were underdogs at kickoff last year in their blowout win over the Broncos. The Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2013, as the underdog, beating the favored 49ers.  The Giants won the year before as an underdog; knocking off the Patriots.  In 2010, the Saints won straight up as a dog over Peyton Manning and the Colts.  In 2009, the Cardinals covered the spread in a tight loss to the Steelers.  In 2008, the Gia nts beat the favored 18-0 Patriots Read more



Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLIX Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Handicapping: Bettors gear up for Conference Championships

01.18.2015     08:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick last minute look at both NFL Conference Championship matchups for today. In the NFL, we've seen a more Seattle money with the line now up to -8 both offshore and in Las Vegas. The total has also been played down some to 45.5. New England remains -6.5 at most sportsbooks though bettors interested in Indianapolis shouldn't have any trouble finding +7. They are expecting balmy temps (45 degrees), some wind (10 mph), and thunderstorms/rain (85% chance) in Foxboro. A 75% chance of rain is forecasted for Seattle. No real shift in opinion from the betting public with the preference for both games to go over and the Packers (57%) and Patriots (67%). FiveThirtyEight.com's ELO Ratings favor both underdogs based on the current market prices with the Seahawks -7 and the Patriots -5.

Sportsmemo has service play selections on both games with Teddy Covers' 20* Packers vs. Seahawks Report and Rob Veno's 15* Colts vs. Patriots Report. Click here to purchase.




Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots




NFL Gambling Consensus: Betting public likes the over in both conference championship games

01.16.2015     08:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets (side, total, and moneyline) for Sunday's NFL Conference Championship matchups courtesy of Bookmaker. After opening -7, Seattle is up to -7.5 even money at most offshore shops. There are still a handful of -7's available but with 20-25 cents worth of juice tacked on. New England was bet down from -7 to -6.5. Las Vegas bettors interested in the Indianapolis side should be able to find +7-120. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDE
67.6% - New England -6 (-115)
53.0% - Green Bay +7.5 (-120)

TOTAL
72.5% - Indianapolis-New England OVER 53.5
67.7% - Green Bay-Seattle OVER 46

MONEYLINE
80.2% - Green Bay +275
68.3% - Indianapolis +225







Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots




NFL Handicapping: Green Bay in rare role of touchdown underdog

01.13.2015     01:12 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Seattle Seahawks are a deserving touchdown favorite over the Green Bay Packers because A.) they are damn good, and B.) they are at home. But it's worth mentioning that it isn't too often you see the Packers, particularly with Aaron Rodgers under the center, this big of an underdog. According to the database hounds, Rodgers has never been more than a six-point dog during his 113 career starts. And the only time the Packers were catching this many points in the Mike McCarthy era was when Matt Flynn was chucking up wounded ducks with Rodgers injured.




Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks




NFL Handicapping: Conference Championship pointspreads and power ratings

01.12.2015     10:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick run through of the pointspreads and power ratings for this weekend's NFL Conference Championship matchups. Note that we applied -3 for home field advantage with Sagarin's lines. Places like Seattle are typically given more respect by oddsmakers and the betting markets.

Indianapolis at New England
CRIS Opener: New England -7
CRIS Current: New England -7 (+105)
Veno Power: New England -6
Sagarin: New England -3.5

Green Bay at Seattle
CRIS Opener: Seattle -7
CRIS Current: Seattle -7.5 (+105)
Veno Power: Seattle -5
Sagarin: Seattle -5.5




Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Conference Championship matchups are set

01.12.2015     07:52 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL has never embraced the Final Four moniker, but that’s exactly what we’ve got left in this NFL season.  Four teams.  Three remaining meaningful games (sorry, I’m not counting the pro bowl as meaningful, even if you choose to wager on it).  One champion, yet to be crowned.

And there’s one strong commonality among the four teams still standing after two weekends of NFL Playoff action.   Each of the four teams still standing is there because of their quarterback.  As the league has adjusted their rules year by year, making it more difficult to defend the passing game, the very best QB’s have taken advantage of those rule changes, making them nearly impossible to defend.

Bettors probably remember the Patriots gameplan when they travelled to Indy in Week 11; one of four games this year where the Pats were installed as underdogs by the betting markets.  Bill Belichick installed a radically different gameplan than most Pats fans (and their betting supporters) were used to.  New England played for extended stretches with six offensive linemen in power rushing formations, finishing the game with Read more



Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Betting: Rodgers dealing with calf issues, bettors jump on Dallas

01.08.2015     02:02 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Screw the weather! Is Aaron Rodgers going to healthy enough to play? Probably but due to what they are calling a "slight calf tear" Rodgers is not expected to be 100 percent for Sunday's playoff game vs. Dallas. Perhaps connected, the Packers just dropped from -6 to -5.5.


"There's no question he will play, but there's also no question he will not be 100 percent," said one doctor familiar with the injury. "The question is whether he'll be 95 percent or 50 percent." 






Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys




NFL Gambling News: Cold temps expected at Lambeau

01.08.2015     09:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you're thinking about betting this weekend's Dallas vs. Green Bay game, part of your handicap will likely include the weather. Packers in Lambeau, sub-freezing temps, Cowboys outdoors...it's going to be a lay up, right? As of today, the weather isn't going to be that bad. No snow, little to no wind, just damn cold seems to be the consensus forecast.


The Packers' record in subfreezing games in the Rodgers era is 16-6-1. One of the victories, two of the losses and the tie came with Rodgers out of the lineup due to injury, so he is 15-4 in those conditions.

"You can't duplicate the cold in the practice setting, but that really (is it)," offensive coordinator Tom Clements said of a cold-weather team's advantage. "That could be an advantage, but it's not necessarily an advantage.

"Teams are going to come in here in the playoffs and they're going to

Read more



Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Top Super Bowl contenders all have flaws

12.29.2014     01:57 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re down to a dirty dozen in the NFL, as 20 of the 32 teams saw their seasons come to a close at the conclusion of another wild and wacky Week 17.  In my Wiseguy Reports over the past two weeks, I’ve been poking holes in the fringe contenders in both conferences.  This week, I’m going to put the four favorites under the microscope.  Guess what – all four are potentially vulnerable to an upset.

Let me start with the defending champs, the Seattle Seahawks.  When Pete Carroll built up his program at USC, the Trojans weren’t a one-and-done type squad for titles -- they were in the mix year after year under his tutelage.  They played fast, they played loose – never tense or uptight -- and they consistently played their very best football down the stretch.

Seattle did just that down the stretch last year.  And they’ve certainly done that this year; going 6-0 SU and ATS since their loss at Kansas City back in Week 11.  But before we anoint the Seahawks as the first repeat Super Bowl champs since the Patriots did it following the 2004 campaign, we’ve got to put this team under the Read more



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos New England Patriots Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC Playoff Contenders

12.15.2014     08:12 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books and four teams have emerged as clear co-favorites to win the Super Bowl.  Green Bay and Seattle are at the top of the power ratings spectrum in the NFC while Denver and New England look poised for a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game.

In my Wiseguy Report over the next two weeks, I’m going to poke holes in every other team that is still alive in the playoff chase.  Can any of the fringe contenders knock off the favorites when January rolls around?  Read on to find out.  This week I’ll focus on the second tier contenders in the NFC, and next week, I’ll shift my focus to the AFC.

The Dallas Cowboys have looked good on national TV repeatedly this year.  They are a perfect 7-0 SU on the road, including impressive wins at Seattle and Philly.  But the Cowboys have at least one fundamental flaw – their defense isn’t much better than it was last year when the Cowboys ranked at or near the bottom of nearly every statistical category. 

In 2013, the Cowboys stop unit was ridiculed nationally, allowing 6.1 yards per play (ranked #30 out of 32 Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 28, 2015 10:44 AM.