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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL teams starting to change their stripes

11.23.2015     11:41 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
It’s Week 12 already. Thanksgiving is upon us, with the holiday season right behind it.  All the NFL Bye weeks are in the rear view mirror now, with every team still having exactly six games remaining in the regular season.  We’re seeing numerous ‘morphs’ around the league; teams that have changed their stripes rather dramatically over the course of the last month. 

Some of those morphs are duly noted by the betting markets.  For example, the 3-7 Cowboys with a healthy Tony Romo are favored over the 10-0 Panthers on Thanksgiving Day, with the betting markets reacting to the Cowboys positive showing with Tony Romo back behind center this past Sunday.  The markets certainly aren’t sleeping on Dallas right now!

But what about the Lions, winners of two straight since their woeful 1-7 start?  Or the Falcons, now just 1-4 in their last five games; struggling on both sides of the football?  The Jets aren’t the same team now that they were a month ago, especially if the injuries to shutdown corner Darrelle Revis and Pro Bowl caliber center Nick Mangold don’t heal quickly.  Should we Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas

NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts

11.06.2015     08:52 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Denver at Indianapolis
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Denver -3 O/U 45
CRIS Current: Denver -5.5 O/U 44.5
Recommendation: Indianapolis

There’s one key question to answer before we begin any handicap of the Colts-Broncos matchup on Sunday.  Did Andrew Luck find his missing mojo in the fourth quarter of Indy’s OT loss to Carolina on Monday Night?  If he did, the Colts may be live underdogs here.  If he didn’t, a Colts team that has significant personnel weaknesses on both sides of the football is primed to take another loss on Sunday.

Two weeks ago, the Colts looked lethargic and lifeless, falling behind New Orleans 27-0 at home.  Indy rallied late, thanks to three Luck TD passes, but there has to be an asterisk there – on two of the three TD passes, the Saints cornerback fell down on the play.  It’s surely worth noting that the same Saints defense that shut out Indy for three quarters proceeded to allow six TD passes from Eli Manning last week.

Then last week, in the rain at Carolina, Luck and the Colts offense produced a Read more

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Indianapolis Colts Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Preview: San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

10.31.2015     08:21 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
San Diego at Baltimore
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Baltimore -4.5 O/U 50
CRIS Current: Baltimore -3.5 O/U 51
Recommendation: Over

We’ve got a classic recipe for an Over in Baltimore on Sunday, in a matchup of two very weak defenses against two quality opposing quarterbacks.  With both teams struggling mightily – a combined 3-11 SU this year, with two of the three wins coming against equally hapless foes from Cleveland and Detroit – we can expect both coaches to pull out every trick from their playbook in an effort to stem the losing tide.  Even with light rain forecast in Baltimore for Sunday, temperatures will be mild and the wind isn’t expected to be a factor – a light shower or two isn’t going to doom our chances to cash this bet.

Both defenses are truly bottom of the barrel.  The Ravens defense has lost every bit of leadership they had following the retirements of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed along with Terrell Suggs’ season ending injury.  Over the last few weeks, Colin Kaepernick and Josh McCown both had their best game of Read more

Tags: NFL San Diego Chargers Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling: Las Vegas SuperContest Week 8 consensus picks

10.31.2015     08:15 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 8 of the NFL SuperContest. A unique situation with two of the top five picks coming from the same game with Green Bay the third-most selected team and Denver the fifth-most.

1. ARIZONA -5 at Cleveland
2. NY JETS -2.5 at Oakland
3. GREEN BAY -3 at Denver
4. CHICAGO +1.5 vs. Minnesota
5. DENVER +3 vs. Green Bay

Least picked Sunday side: Tennessee -3 at Houston

Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Denver Broncos

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's five unbeatens

10.26.2015     07:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re nearing the halfway point of the NFL season and five teams still remain undefeated; an unusually high number of perfect teams at this stage of the campaign.  There’s not much debate with the betting community about how to rank the five remaining unbeatens.  The New England Patriots are power rated at least a field goal higher than any other team in the league right now.  Behind the Pats come the Green Bay Packers, followed closely by the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Denver Broncos rank #4 on this list; with Peyton Manning’s ongoing struggles carrying more weight than the Broncos elite level defensive stats in the current betting markets.  Last on the list is the Carolina Panthers, still searching for market respect even after their win and cover against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football.

My goal of this week’s Wiseguy Report is to break down these five teams in terms of my probability of them producing a profit over the final ten weeks of the regular season.  Is it possible to make money with ANY of these teams moving forward, or have the betting markets eclipsed any semblance of future value?  Read on to find Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: The NFL's square/sharp divide

10.05.2015     07:50 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
On Twitter every Sunday, there’s always significant discussion of what the NFL sharp/square divide games are for that day.  There’s an old quote from legendary Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro that goes like this: “Squares bet teams, sharps bet numbers.”  And there’s plenty of truth to that quote.  For example, at the weekly Tuesday Group football discussion for pro bettors here in Vegas, nobody says “I like team X this weekend.”  They say, “I like Team X at +3 or higher.”  Recreational players, on the other hand, have a general tendency to focus on teams, not pointspreads. 

That gives pros a leg up when it comes to catching half point wins instead of half point losses in games that finish with a final margin right around the pointspread or total.  Last Thursday’s Ravens-Steelers game is a classic example of that.  Line shoppers, by definition, at least somewhat sharp, won laying -2.5 with Baltimore and pushed taking +3 with Pittsburgh, able to avoid a losing ticket regardless of which side they bet.  The vast majority of non-line shoppers took a push with either Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Preview: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

10.02.2015     08:07 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Green Bay at San Francisco
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Green Bay -7 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -8 O/U 48.5
Recommendation: San Francisco

Sometimes, the appropriate betting move in the NFL is to hold your nose and bet on the team that nobody wants; a squad offering legitimate pointspread value.  That’s the case with the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

This is truly a dismal spot for the road favorite.  Green Bay faced divisional rival Chicago in their opener, beating up the Bears.  Then they faced a HUGE revenge game on Sunday Night against the Seahawks; a ‘Big Ticket’ winner for myself and my clients with another ATS cover.  And then the Packers enjoyed a third straight win and cover in a third straight big game, knocking off KC on Monday Night Football.  At 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, the Packers now fly across the country to take on a 49ers team that just got annihilated in back-2-back road tilts, losing by a combined score of 90-25.  Think Green Bay brings their ‘A’ game here?  I don’t!

The 49ers have Read more

Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers San Francisco 49ers Teddy Covers

MNF Gambling News: Bettors not deterred by Aaron Rodgers' track record at Lambeau

09.28.2015     08:11 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Despite Aaron Rodgers' video game-like stats and results at Lambeau Field, the betting markets continue to show support for the underdog Kansas City Chiefs for tonight's MNF game. Rodgers’ career QB rating currently sits at a Hall of Fame worthy 106.4. At home since 2013, it's a ridiculous 129.8 thanks to a 35-0 TD-to-INT ratio. CRIS opened the game Green Bay -6.5 and it quickly went to -7. Since then, a steady trickle of KC money has the line down to -5.5 offshore and -6 in Las Vegas.

Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Green Bay Packers

NFL Gambling Preview: Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

09.15.2015     01:26 PM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith blog entry.
Arizona at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Arizona -2 O/U 45
CRIS Current: Arizona -2 O/U 45
Recommendation: Arizona

The Chicago Bears opened up the year with a tough 31-23 loss to Green Bay. Running back Matt Forte was solid with 141 rushing yards and a touchdown and while Chicago's defense has shown some improvement from last season's horrific campaign, there are still some glaring issues. The Bears allowed 6.1 yards per play with some terrible displays of missed tackling and poor reading of rushing routes against the Packers. Things won't be any easier this week with Arizona. The Cards pulled away from New Orleans with two late touchdowns to earn the 31-19 victory. Arizona's tough defense held a very good Saints offense to four field goals and only 54 yards on the ground. Offensively, the Cardinals averaged 7.5 yards per play and were a perfect 3-for-3 inside the red zone.

The Bears are going to have to diversify their offense and take more chances when nearing the red zone. They seemed too reliant on short passes and screens last game and while Arizona has two Read more

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Airzona Cardinals Alex B. Smith

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Power Ratings 1-32

09.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The NFL regular season starts on Thursday.  Here’s how I have the 32 teams ranked heading into the campaign, with a quick blurb each squad.

1. New England Patriots - With Tom Brady set to open the season as the starting quarterback, the defending champs are the team to beat, worthy of my #1 ranking heading into the regular season.

2. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle enjoyed the best yards-per-rush differential between offense and defense last year, but they’ve got significant offensive line question marks as they head to St Louis for Week 1.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers passing game was second to none in the NFL last year, but the loss of Jordy Nelson leaves Aaron Rodgers without his top target for the entire season.

4. Indianapolis Colts - Most elite contenders face a tougher than average schedule because they’ve got to face other contending teams.  Indy, however, plays only four games against playoff teams from last year.

5. Denver Broncos - Peyton Manning is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL by a wide margin, and he’s coming off a season where his arm strength noticeably declined down the Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers


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