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NFL Gambling Free Pick: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

10.16.2016     09:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Dallas at Green Bay
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Green
Bay -7 O/U 47
CRIS Current: Green Bay -5.5 O/U 47
Recommendation: Green Bay

Just a few weeks ago, Dallas was a +3 underdog at Washington. Now, they’re +5.5 at Lambeau Field against the Packers. My numbers show nearly a touchdown’s worth of difference between the Redskins and Packers. Clearly, the markets are pretty high on Dallas right now.

The Cowboys have certainly exceeded early season expectations with rookie Dak Prescott behind center. Then again, Dallas hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of foes. Their first three wins came against the aforementioned Redskins, the Bears and the 49ers. Then, last week, they were home dogs against the Bengals, but Cinci showed up completely flat, while Dallas brought their A-game.

So we’re talking about a team that beat two bottom feeders, one mediocre foe and one team that just didn’t show. Now they’re supposed to be able to go to Green Bay and hang for 60 minutes? I’m not buying it!

There’s been some talk Read more

Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Update: SuperContest consensus goes 3-2 ATS in Week 5

10.10.2016     11:45 AM     Printer Friendly

SuperContest consensus plays went 3-2 against the spread last week thanks to the off market 7.5 they offered on New York-Green Bay -- the game was 6.5/7 throughout the week. The Packers won 23-16. On the season, consensus plays are now 7-18 ATS.

1. CINCINNATI -1 at Dallas - LOSS
2. PHILADELPHIA -3 at Detroit - LOSS
3. MINNESOTA -6.5 vs. Houston - WIN
4. PITTSBURGH -7 vs. NY Jets - WIN
5. NY GIANTS +7.5 at Green Bay - WIN

Year-to-date results
Week 1: 3-2
Week 2: 0-5
Week 3: 0-5
Week 4: 1-4
Week 5: 3-2

NFL Gambling: SuperContest consensus goes heavy on the chalk for Week 5

10.08.2016     08:36 PM     View Read more

Tags: NFL SuperContest

NFL Gambling: Seahawks and Packers top Week 2 SuperContest consensus plays

09.18.2016     08:16 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top five consensus picks for Week 2 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. SEATTLE -4.5 at Los Angeles
2. GREEN BAY -2.5 at Minnesota
3. JACKSONVILLE +3 at San Diego
4. KANSAS CITY +3 at Houston
5. CINCINNATI +3.5 at Pittsburgh

Least Picked Sunday side: Los Angeles +4.5

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers

NFL Gambling Alert: Minnesota expected to start Bradford vs. Green Bay

09.16.2016     10:41 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Despite beating the Tennessee Titans in Week 1 with Shaun Hill under center, the Minnesota Vikings are expected to go with Sam Bradford for Sunday night's game against rival Green Bay. Bradford, of course, has only been with the team for two weeks and has had to absorb the playbook quickly. The Packers are currently -2.5 road chalk.

“Everyone’s aware of the nuances that we have in this offense,” tight end Kyle Rudolph said. “Not only knowing what a guy has on what play but trusting that that guy is going to win and be in the spot for you — that’s stuff that you develop over the course of years, and we’re trying to do it over a couple weeks.”

Tags: NFL Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Handicapping the NFL post-Week 1

09.12.2016     10:58 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Week 1 of the NFL season routinely tells lies.  The goal of any winning handicapper has to be figuring out which teams were lying in their Week 1 performances.

Look no further than last year for some excellent examples.  On opening day of the 2015 NFL season, the Tennessee Titans blew out Tampa Bay 42-14.  Marcus Mariota looked like a superstar, throwing four TD passes in his NFL debut and finishing the game with a perfect passer rating. 

If you bet the Titans the following week, you watched them lose outright by two touchdowns to the NFL’s worst team, Cleveland.   Mariota threw only five TD passes over the next four weeks before getting hurt.  Tennessee finished the season tied for the worst pointspread record in the NFL, cashing only three winning bets in their final 15 games.  The Titans lied to us in Week 1.

Remember when the Dolphins beat the Redskins, and covered as four point road favorites in Washington, thanks to a Jarvis Landry punt return touchdown in the fourth quarter.    Miami lost their next three games so badly that head coach Joe Philbin didn’t survive their bye Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Ranking all 32 NFL teams heading into Week 1

09.06.2016     08:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The NFL Preseason is in the rear view mirror, with Week 1 kicking off on Thursday as Carolina travels to Denver as -3 road favorites.  Here’s how I have all 32 teams ranked heading into the regular season.

1. Carolina Panthers  - Cam Newton and Carolina’s offense are poised to rank among the most potent attacks in the NFL.  Watch out for the Funchess/Benjamin WR duo!

2. Seattle Seahawks - Russell Wilson gave an MVP caliber performance in 2015, but his ability to repeat that effort could be stunted by the Seahawks offensive line woes.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers come out of camp with a full complement of healthy weapons for Aaron Rodgers, good news after Rodgers numbers took a big hit without Jordy Nelson last year.

4. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona returns just about every key player on both sides of the ball from a team that ranked among the NFL’s elite in 2015.

5. New England Patriots - If Tom Brady was at quarterback, this team would be ranked #1.  But with Jimmy Garappolo behind center, the Pats take a modest tumble in my rankings.

6. Kansas City Chiefs - Andy Reid’s Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Denver Broncos Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Handicapping Part I

08.15.2016     02:03 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Week 1 of the 2016 NFL Preseason is in the books, with underdog bettors showing a modest profit through the weekend’s action.  Non-bettors always seem shocked when I talk about betting (and beating) the preseason.  How can you bet on exhibition games?  I don’t even know the guys on the field in the second half.  Boy, you really must be a degenerate gambler if you’re betting on NFL Preseason.

That couldn’t be further from the truth.  A sharp bettor’s mantra is fairly simple and nearly universal: Bet when you have an edge.  Pass when you don’t.  That holds for regular season NFL and it holds for preseason NFL as well.  And there are no shortage of edges to find when it comes to betting August football. 

In this two part column, I’ll illustrate the strategies that wiseguys use to attack preseason football.  In Part 1 (below), I’ll outline the basic market forces that create preseason pointspreads and show Preseason Handicapping 101 methods to beat those pointspreads.  In Part 2 next week, I’ll take a Deep Dive into some Advanced Betting Strategies for Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Betting Preview Podcast 7-26-2016: Green Bay Packers

07.26.2016     10:07 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Erin Rynning. Erin continued his coverage of the NFC North by breaking down the Green Bay Packers.


Date: 7/26
Handicapper: Erin Rynning
Team: Green Bay Packers
2015-16 Record: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 5-11 O/U
Season O/U Wins: 10.5ov-175
Odds to Win NFC: +505
Odds to Win NFC North: -138
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +920
Week 1 Line: Green Bay -4 at Jacksonville

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Erin Rynning

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the NFC East

07.25.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I’ve previewed seven of the eight NFL divisions already, which leaves one last division to dissect before the start of training camps this week – the NFC East.  After this column, I’ll be taking a short break from writing Wiseguy Reports, taking some time to be fresh for the start of football season.  My next report – all about beating preseason NFL – will come in mid- August.

Let’s start with the division favorite Dallas Cowboys who are lined at 9 wins.  Last year was an unmitigated disaster for Jerry Jones’ squad and their supporters in the betting markets: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS.  The Cowboys top heavy roster was besieged with key injuries, most notably at quarterback and their defense was an abject disaster.  The Cowboys finished dead last in the NFL with a -22 turnover margin in large part because their defense notched only 11 takeaways all year.  To put that number in perspective, 24 of the 32 NFL teams recorded 21 takeaways or more.

Jason Garrett is 7-22 ATS as a home favorite in his first five years as the Cowboys head coach; a consistent track record of failure.  Read more

Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys New York Giants Philadelphia Eagles Washington Redskins Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the NFC North

07.18.2016     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in this space, when I previewed the AFC North, there wasn’t a whole lot that I liked in the division.  If I’m going to put an AFC North win total in my pocket, it’s not going to be on an over wager!  But that’s most assuredly not the case in the NFC North, where several teams – including a Super Bowl contender – have the feeling of an undervalued commodity at this stage of the offseason.

Let’s start with the Chicago Bears who are lined at 7 or 7.5 wins; a legitimate split line.  Bettors shopping around for the best price on the Bears (over or under) should remember the standard rule of thumb for converting juice into wins with mid-range totals (teams lined between 6.5 and 9.5 wins). Fifty cents of juice equates to about a half win.  If you like the over, an over 7 -140 trumps over 7.5 at +100.  If you like under, under 7.5 -140 trumps under 7 at +100.

Last year, the Bears went 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS and 8-8 O/U.  Their mainstream stats were indicative of a sub .500 squad: ranked 21st in total offense, #14 in total defense, #22 in yards per play differential Read more

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings Teddy Covers


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