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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC Playoff Contenders

12.15.2014     08:12 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books and four teams have emerged as clear co-favorites to win the Super Bowl.  Green Bay and Seattle are at the top of the power ratings spectrum in the NFC while Denver and New England look poised for a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game.

In my Wiseguy Report over the next two weeks, I’m going to poke holes in every other team that is still alive in the playoff chase.  Can any of the fringe contenders knock off the favorites when January rolls around?  Read on to find out.  This week I’ll focus on the second tier contenders in the NFC, and next week, I’ll shift my focus to the AFC.

The Dallas Cowboys have looked good on national TV repeatedly this year.  They are a perfect 7-0 SU on the road, including impressive wins at Seattle and Philly.  But the Cowboys have at least one fundamental flaw – their defense isn’t much better than it was last year when the Cowboys ranked at or near the bottom of nearly every statistical category. 

In 2013, the Cowboys stop unit was ridiculed nationally, allowing 6.1 yards per play (ranked #30 out of 32 Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Monday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public on Falcons and UNDER (We kid, we kid!)

12.08.2014     01:55 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets (side, total, and moneyline) for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers courtesy of Bookmaker. Sticking with an on-going theme, the public is all over the home favorite and over. The market, while in agreement with the side, has bet the total down from 55.5 to 54.5. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDE
75.2% - Green Bay -13

TOTAL
65.1% - Over 54.5

MONEYLINE
60.2% - Green Bay -800



Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons Green Bay Packers




NFL Gambling Preview: New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers

11.27.2014     06:44 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Green Bay
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Green Bay -3 O/U 57
CRIS Current: Green Bay -3 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Green Bay -1.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

NFL Totals don’t get much higher than this, with the current Over/Under posted in the 57.5/58 range for Sunday’s Patriots – Packers clash.  And I can certainly understand why this total is posted in this range – we’re looking at two teams that rank #1 and #2 in points scored this season; two teams with elite quarterbacks playing at the top of their game; and two teams that are a combined 12-2 to the Over since the beginning of October.

But all of that is most assuredly factored into this inflated number – the bookmakers and the betting markets aren’t flying blind at this late stage of the season.  Game temperatures at Lambeau Field are expected to be Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Power Ratings Movers and Shakers

11.17.2014     08:20 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Following the Week 11 results, for the first time since 2012, I have a team other than the Denver Broncos or the Seattle Seahawks ranked #1 in my NFL Power Ratings.  Seattle has been steadily declining in my power ratings for most of the season.  The Seahawks lack of defensive line depth was problematic in early season losses to Dallas and San Diego, both of whom wore them down in the second half and were able to run the football successfully throughout.  The loss of stud lineman Brandon Mebane only made those depth concerns greater prior to their game at Kansas City this past weekend; a game where the Chiefs ran all over the Seahawks defense. 

Seattle also lacks consistent downfield playmakers at the wide receiver position since trading away Percy Harvin.  In their loss to the Chiefs, Seattle lost star center Max Unger to injury as well, truly an impact injury.  If the playoffs started today, the Seahawks would be on the outside looking in.  Clearly, this is not the best team in the NFL as we approach Thanksgiving and the December stretch run.

Denver has been ranked #1 or #2 in my power ratings in every single week since 2012, Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Patriots, Chiefs, and Packers to SuperContest picks for Week 11

11.16.2014     06:38 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 11 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. New England +3 at Indianapolis
2. Kansas City -1.5 vs. Seattle
3. Green Bay -6 vs. Philadelphia
4. Cleveland -3 vs. Houston
5. Detroit +2.5 at Arizona

Least picked Sunday side: Washington -7.5 vs. Tampa Bay



Tags: NFL




NFL Gambling Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

11.13.2014     02:41 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia at Green Bay
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Green Bay -5.5 O/U 56.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -6 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Green Bay -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Philadelphia

Green Bay is coming off a near perfect game, absolutely annihilating the Chicago Bears from start to finish.  Aaron Rodgers was at his best, tying the all time NFL record with six touchdown passes before halftime.  "We just kind of got things going our way. The line did a good job of giving me time to extend plays. If you extend plays, you look down the field and there's Jordy Nelson. He made some nice catches." That win improved the Packers record following a bye week under Mike McCarthy to 9-0 ATS. 

The last time the Packers played a near perfect game (destroying Carolina), they followed it up with a clunker the following week in New Orleans.  Following another near Read more


Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Philadelphia and Sanchez look good, pointspread vs. Green Bay shifts

11.11.2014     06:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Another example of how week-to-week performances in the NFL impact pointspreads. In yesterday's Opening Line Report podcast with Teddy Covers we discussed the look-ahead lines for the Philadelphia-Green Bay matchup. The Westgate had Green Bay -6 while a few offshore sportsbooks were showing -6/-6.5. The Packers were obviously off an impressive showing as they destroyed the Bears 55-14. The thought was if the Eagles "looked good" on MNF vs. the Panthers, the line would likely come -6. If they struggled, perhaps as high as -7. Instead, Philly rolled and Mark Sanchez looked like the second coming of Peyton Manning. So instead of -6 the prevailing number is currently -4.5. Not a huge difference but significant enough to warrant mention and another example of the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mentality of sports betting.



Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Green Bay Packers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC News and Notes

11.10.2014     08:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Cleveland Browns went into Thursday Night’s matchup at Cincinnati with a winning record, but without much respect from the betting markets.  Cleveland had spent the last month feasting on the weak, facing off against the likes of the Titans, Jaguars, Raiders and Bucs in their previous five games; arguably the four worst teams in the NFL.  The Browns didn’t blow out any of those squads; locked in tight, competitive games each time except their only loss during that span – a blowout defeat at Jacksonville.

Without pro bowl center Alex Mack in the lineup over their previous three games, the Browns offense became completely one-dimensional; a team that couldn’t run the football one iota.  Against Tampa’s shoddy rush D, it was 26 carries for 50 yards.  The week before, it was 25 rushes for 39 yards.  The week before that, it was 30 rushes for 69 yards.  That’s less than two yards per carry against weaklings.

So what did the Browns do in their step-up game on Thursday Night at Cincinnati?  Simple – they dominated on both sides of the football, start to finish, rushing for 170 yards and Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Gambling: Lions and Packers top bets for SuperContest Week 10

11.09.2014     06:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 10 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. Detroit -2.5 vs. Miami
2. Green Bay -7 vs. Chicago
3. New Orleans -5 vs. San Francisco
4. Kansas City -2 at Buffalo
5. NY Jets +5 vs. Pittsburgh

Least picked Sunday side: Jacksonville +6.5 vs. Dallas



Tags: NFL




NFL Gambling Alert: Minnesota's Bridgewater OUT, Ponder to start vs. Green Bay

10.02.2014     02:44 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
According to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater will not play tonight vs. Green Bay. The Vikings will start Christian Ponder. Green Bay was originally bet down to -7.5 after an opener of -10. Now seeing market buy-back with the current number at -8/-8.5. The total is getting pounded under as we speak with 46.5 the prevailing number.



Tags: NFL Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers



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