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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

09.22.2014     07:51 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re three weeks into the new NFL season and I’ve already got some pointspread and totals streakers to write about.  Three teams are 3-0 ATS, four more have yet to cover a pointspread. Four teams are 3-0 to the Over; five more are 3-0 to the Under. Who are these teams and why are they trending early? Most importantly, can we expect them to continue to trend in the same direction moving forward? Read on to find out.

I’ll focus here on the pointspread streakers, saving the totals streakers for a thorough look next week. That being said, I will list the early season totals streakers here, so you don’t have to go through the trouble of looking them up. 3-0 to the Over: Browns, Jaguars, Colts and Eagles. 3-0 to the Under: Bengals, Cardinals, Bills, Vikings and Titans.

The NFL is a parity filled league, and pointspreads can adjust rather dramatically based on a single early season performance. A big Week 1 or Week 2 victory, therefore, makes it more difficult to cover the spread the following week. Only three teams have managed to avoid an ATS defeat through the first three weeks of the season. All three of those squads were less than Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

09.21.2014     07:11 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Green Bay at Detroit
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Detroit -1 O/U 52
CRIS Current: Detroit -2 O/U 53
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Detroit pk
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Over

This NFC North matchup has all the makings of a shootout with two of the top quarterbacks in the game facing defenses that are middle-of-the-road at best. 

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 535 yards and four touchdowns in two games, with Jordy Nelson emerging as his favorite target. Nelson has 292 yards on 18 receptions with one score as he and Randall Cobb give Rodgers two dynamic weapons in the passing game.

On the other sideline, Matthew Stafford has tossed for 630 yards and three scores, with Calvin Johnson piling up the receiving numbers once again. Stafford has plenty of other options, including free agent wideout Golden Tate and the running back tandem of Joique Bell and Reggie Bush.

These Read more


Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Detroit Lions Brent Crow




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 2 Betting Recap

09.15.2014     07:18 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
My September NFL betting mantra is relatively simple.  It can be stated in one sentence: “Bet on good teams, and bet against bad teams.”   This strategy tends to be at its best  very early in the season, before the betting markets catch up to how good or how bad teams actually are compared to last year. 

That strategy did not fare well this past weekend for two reasons – many of the good teams played poorly and a good handful of the bad teams stepped up.  Of the seven top teams in my power ratings, only two managed to cover the pointspread on Sunday (Cincinnati and New England).  Seattle, New Orleans and San Francisco all lost SU as favorites.  Denver won, by not my enough of a margin to cover the number.  And Green Bay pushed against the closing number but lost for anyone who bet the Packers throughout the course of the week.

On the other end of the spectrum, many of the bottom teams in my power ratings stepped up and played a good game.  The worst two teams in the league – Jacksonville and Oakland, according to my numbers – are both 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS.  Other weak teams like the Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Jets prep for Packers' up-tempo attack

09.11.2014     06:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New York Jets at Green Bay -8 O/U 46

The New York Jets spent much of the week preparing for Green Bay's up-tempo offense. The Packers had said they want to run as many as 75 plays per game. Denver was the fastest team in the league last year at 72.1 ppg.


“Everybody has to be in shape and know exactly what you’re doing,” said Jets nose tackle Damon Harrison. “When you get tired and you’re in better shape, you don’t resort back to old, bad habits. If you’re a guy that’s in shape, the quick tempo shouldn’t bother you that much. It’s always tough for defensive linemen when guys are running the hurry-up offense. But I think we’ll be fine.”





Tags: NFL New York Jets Green Bay Packers Denver Broncos




NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public supports Seahawks and OVER

09.04.2014     02:47 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the consensus bets for tonight’s NFL regular season opener between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDE
55.0% - Seattle -5.5

TOTAL
68.6% - OVER 46.5

MONEYLINE
59.8% - Green Bay +210

 

 



Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL Preseason Week 1

08.11.2014     12:46 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
From 2008 through 2013, Overs ruled the roost when it came to betting preseason football, with more Overs than Unders cashing in every single season.  The average points scored in August NFL games increased every year during that span, from 35.3 points per game in 2008 up to 41.2 points per game last year; a preseason that saw Overs cash at nearly a 60% clip. 

An increase of six points per game over a five year span is absolutely going to attract some betting market attention.  The quants who rule the markets aren’t going to let that type of information slip by without a significant reaction!

In particular, the lowest totals have been the best Over bets during this run of relatively high scoring affairs.  Totals of 36.5 or less have been enormous profit makers for Over bettors.  From 2009 through 2013, games totaled at 36.5 or less went Over at a 93-57 (62%) clip.  Games totaled at 37 or higher were essentially split 50-50 between Over cashes and Under cashes – all the profits came from betting lower totals Over.

So what happened in Week 1 this year?  A huge run of Unders!  Including the Hall of Fame Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap Season Over/Under Wins Part I

07.14.2014     01:59 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Kansa City Chiefs didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty Denver.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season wins by the time their bye week rolled around.  KC’s 11-5 campaign offered a positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 7 or 7.5 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals rank among the most profitable set of wagers currently Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC Season Over/Under Win "morphers"

06.09.2014     08:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve been waiting patiently for the NFL Season Wins market to mature, but that doesn’t happen quickly here in June.  Most of the notable offshores have not posted Over/Under win totals yet, leaving Vegas as the only active market right now. As a result, all the numbers used in this article are from right here in Sin City.

Of the 32 NFL teams, only 11 have Over/Under win totals that are different from their final record last year by two games or more.  In other words, the markets are telling us to expect ‘more of the same’ from 21 of the 32 teams in the league.

In my Vegas Wiseguy Report article over the next two weeks, I’m going to focus on those eleven teams that are expected to morph positively or negatively from last year.  The goal of this discussion is to focus on why these particular teams are expected to improve or decline significantly compared to last year.  I’ll do that by looking at how the broader market conditions affect the numbers.  What do the markets fixate upon?  What do they largely ignore?  Read on to find out.

This week’s focus will be on the seven NFC Read more


Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Carolina Panthers Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arizona Cardinals Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason NFC Betting News and Notes

06.02.2014     10:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote that “the NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!”

“My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.”

Last week, I focused on the 16 teams from the AFC.  In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 NFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  And this week, I’ll do my absolute best to avoid egregious errors like my ‘San Diego didn’t make the 2013 playoffs’ Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Betting News: Oddsmaker says 49ers will take more money

01.10.2014     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Francisco -1 at Carolina O/U 41

LVH oddsmaker Jay Kornegay says he expects San Francisco money at some point with a chance for the line to go to -3. We saw similar move late last week as the 49ers opened -2.5 and closed as high as -3.5 at Green Bay.


“I thought this thing would have a chance to go to 3 like we saw on the Packers game, and I still think we might see that,” Kornegay told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “Those who took Carolina plus 1 or 1.5 might have jumped the gun a little bit because they’ll probably get a better number closer to kickoff.”






Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 23, 2014 07:38 PM.