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MLB Handicapping: Starting pitchers and unsustainable numbers
05.13.2013 12:06 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
We're far enough into the MLB season that we can start to look at starting pitchers with unsustainable numbers. BABPIP has long been a tool of grading the lucky from unlucky. There are some exceptions – ex. Detroit's pitchers typically have higher BABIPs because of poor defense whereas Tampa's BABIPs have historically been lower than the league average of .300 because of better than average defense. The league average left-on-base percentage in right around 70%. Matt Moore is a damn good pitcher but his 96.1% will inevitably go down. Last year's top mark, from teammate Jeremy Hellickson, was 82.7%. ERA-FIP difference is another good tool – Jeremy Guthrie's ERA is 2.28 but his FIP is 4.60 which indicates he's been more fortunate than good. Max Scherzer's ERA is 3.61 yet his FIP is 1.88 which indicates he's been stellar with what he can control – most notably the art of missing bats (11.6 K/9). Lastly is HR/FB ratio. Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen's groundball rate is a ridiculously low 31.5% yet only 4.5% of fly balls resulted in home runs. Keep in mind Chen allowed 29 homers last season so we can expect balls to leave the yard with more frequency moving forward. Keep
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MLB Handicapping: Sale one of this year's top Verducci Effect candidates
02.05.2013 06:20 AM
Printer Friendly
Here a list of this year's
Verducci Effect
candidates. The biggest increase in workload came from Chicago's Chris Sale who was in and out of the rotation at times due to arm difficulties. Washington’s Stephen Strasburg also made the list despite being shut down late in the season.
2013 Verducci Effect
Pitcher, Team
Age
2012 Innings Pitched
Increase*
Chris Sale, White Sox
23
192
121
Jarrod Parker, A's
23
214/ 2/3
78
Jose Quintana, White Sox
23
185
63
Joe Kelly, Cardinals
24
187
55
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
23
159 1/3
36
Chris Rusin, Cubs
25
173
34 1/3
Matt Harvey, Mets
23
169 1/3
33 2/3
Alex Cobb, Rays
24
177 2/3
33
Felix Doubront, Red Sox
24
161
31 2/3
Dan Straily, A's
23
191 1/3
30 2/3
Andrew Werner, Padres
25
166 2/3
30 1/3
In terms of
last year's list
, as predicted, as handful had injuries or suffered some form of regression.
Derek Holland, Dylan Axelrod, Jaime Garcia, Liam Hendricks, Eric Surkamp, Chris Schwinden, Daniel Hudson, Zach Stewart and Michael Pineda.
Mike Leake, Yovani Gallardo, and Jeremy Hellickson all suffered slight regressions – depending on what numbers you go by – but for the most part remained healthy. Texas' Matt Harrison however was lights out though as Verducci points out, pitchers with bigger
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MLB Gambling Notes: The list of starting pitcher injuries is comically long
06.20.2012 07:24 AM
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We’ve never really tracked starting pitching injuries league-wide but it seems like there are an awful lot of guys currently on the shelf. This is just a rough estimate, but close to 33% of the league’s starting pitchers are hurt – everything from a skipped start to out for the season.
Atlanta
Brandon Beachy (elbow)
Boston
Josh Beckett (shoulder)
Aaron Cook (leg)
John Lackey (elbow)
Chicago Cubs
Ryan Demspter (back)
Chicago White Sox
John Danks (shoulder)
Cleveland
Carlos Carrasco (elbow)
Colorado
Jorge De La Rosa (elbow)
Juan Nicasio (knee)
Jhoulys Chacin (shoulder)
Detroit
Drew Smyly (finger)
Houston
Kyle Weiland (shoulder)
Kansas City
Danny Duffy (elbow)
Felipe Paulino (groin)
Los Angeles Angels
Jered Weaver (back) – slated to start today
Jerome Williams (heart)
Los Angeles
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MLB Handicapping: Rays send Hellickson to DL, call up Archer for debut
06.20.2012 06:50 AM
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The amount of starting pitchers to hit the DL of late continues to climb as the Tampa Bay Rays placed Jeremy Hellickson on the 15-day due to shoulder fatigue. Tampa’s Chris Archer was called up from Triple-A and will make his
MLB debut tonight
at Washington against Stephen Strasburg. Archer was a sixth round pick in 2006 and had a 4.81 ERA (3.41 FIP) with 90 strikeouts and 45 walks in 76.7 innings at Durham this season.
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MLB Handicapping Preview: Tampa Bay Rays boast top-tier pitching staff
03.26.2012 12:52 PM
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Tampa Bay Rays
2011 Record: 91-71
2011 Profits: +8.7 units
2011 O/U: 65-88-9
Pinnacle's 2012 AL East Odds: +503
Pinnacle's 2012 Season O/U Wins: 86.5ov-126
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Wade Davis looks to be the odd man out of the
Rays' rotation
to start the season with James Shields, David Price, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and Jeff Niemann occupying the top five spots.
Tampa's pitching staff is being called the
deepest in baseball
. Alex Cobb was sent down to the minors after showing well during last season's call up. Some scouts say Cobb could be a No. 3 or No. 4 on other teams. There is also no room for top pitching prospects Alex Torres and Chris Archer. In the bullpen, the Rays acquired Fernando Rodney and get JP Howell back from
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MLB Handicapping: A banged up Bartolo Colon nears 100-inning mark
07.19.2011 06:30 AM
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New York (Colon) at Tampa Bay (Hellickson) -105 O/U 8.5
Back-to-back concerning starts for New York's Bartolo Colon. Prior to the All-Star break, he was smacked around for five runs in 5.2 innings (4 walks, 1 strikeout) against Tampa Bay. Last Thursday against Toronto, he lasted only two-thirds of an inning (6 hits, 8 runs, 3 earned runs, 2 walks, 0 strikeouts) after seemingly tweaking his hamstring in an attempt to cover first base. In his defense, the
inning was prolonged
by an error and a couple of "swinging bunt" base hits. Still, Colon is 38 years old, has a gimp hamstring, and hasn't topped 100 innings since 2005.
Bartolo Colon's IP the last six seasons
2006 - 56.1
2007 - 99.1
2008 - 39.0
2009 - 62.1
2010 - DNP
2011 -
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Starting pitcher breakdown: Easiest and Toughest Competition
05.19.2011 12:58 PM
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Blog that breaks down starting pitchers who have faced the
easiest and toughest
competition heading into tonight's action. Not surprising to see Tampa's Wade Davis top the list of easiest foes considering he's faced Baltimore three times and the Chicago Whites Sox and Minnesota both twice.
Pitchers who have faced the easiest opposition
(1) Wade Davis, .678 OPS for opposing batters
(2) Jeff Niemann, .689
(3t) Phil Coke, .695
(3t) R.A. Dickey, .695
(5) Bruce Chen, .699
(6t) C.J. Wilson, .701
(6t) Ricky Romero, .701
(8t) Rick Porcello, .705
(8t) Colby Lewis, .705
(10t) Brandon McCarthy, .706
(10t) Jeff Francis, .706
(10t) Jeremy Hellickson, .706
Pitchers who have faced the toughest opposition
(1) J.A. Happ, .770
(2) Brad Bergesen, .768
(3) Brandon Beachy, .767
(4t) Brett Myers, .765
(4t)
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Tampa Bay Rays top prospect Hellickson gets nod against Twins
08.02.2010 06:14 AM
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Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Jeremy Hellickson will make his MLB debut tonight at home against Minnesota. Hellickson, 23, was a fourth round draft pick back in 2005. Heading into the 2010 season, Baseball America rated him the No. 18 prospect. In six Minor League seasons, Hellickson went 49-16 with a 2.66 ERA in just under 600 innings. He fanned 630 batters, walked only 135 and posted a 1.05 WHIP. But while Hellickson comes in with a lot of fanfare, it is not expected that he will join Tampa's already deep rotation.
"We want to actually treat it like an off-day for the pitchers only, the starters only," manager Joe Maddon explains. "What people don't understand or realize is that even that one extra day can be substantial regarding how they feel physically, how their arm feels, et cetera."
Hellickson is a -115 favorite over Carl Pavano with a total of 8.5.
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