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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Handicapping Part II

08.22.2016     09:04 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, in Part I of my Wiseguy Report on NFL Preseason Betting strategies, I listed a handful of key mantras for winning in August. Don’t confuse a team’s regular season capabilities with their preseason goals.  Bet on teams in August that have a battle for their starting QB spot.  Know your coaches and their track records in various roles (and in various weeks).  And bet information, not opinions. 

All of those stand as solid mainstream advice; the stuff the markets are paying attention to.  This week, in Part II — preseason advanced handicapping methods —  I’m going to write about the things that the markets don’t pay enough attention to...but they probably should!

Let me start with a bold statement: "3" is not the most important key number when it comes to betting in the NFL reason.  Neither is "7".  No, the most important pointspread number in August is the number "1."  Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the AFC North

07.05.2016     07:30 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve already previewed four NFL Divisions throughout the hot summer months – we’re at the halfway point; with four more divisional previews still to come.  Let’s continue the process this week with an early breakdown of the AFC North. As always, teams are listed in alphabetical order within the division.

The Baltimore Ravens had been a model of consistency throughout the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco eras...until last year.  Baltimore suffered through an injury riddled disaster of a campaign, finishing with a 5-11 SU, 5-9-2 ATS mark, while going 7-9 O/U.  By the end of the season a franchise record 20 different players were on injured reserve.  It’s worth noting that the Ravens switched their field surface this past offseason, at least in part due to all of those injuries last year, replacing the field turf with natural grass for 2016.

The betting markets are expecting a significant Ravens bounceback this year, lining Baltimore as an 8.5 win team for 2016 (there are a handful of books that have Baltimore lined at 8 wins with juice to the over).  A quick look at their mainstream stats from last Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Balitmore Ravens at Denver Broncos

09.11.2015     07:07 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Denver
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Denver -4 O/U 52
CRIS Current: Denver -4.5 O/U 48.5
Recommendation: Under

Few teams in the NFL have changed their expected gameplan as much as the Denver Broncos here in 2015.  Last year, Denver spent the majority of the season in a quick strike, pass heavy offense.  Denver ranked among the top five teams in the NFL, averaging 6.0 yards per play.  Peyton Manning threw for more than 4,700 yards, completing 39 touchdown passes and more than 66% of his throws.  Meanwhile, the Broncos defense was riddled with key injuries, forcing them into ‘Offensive Shootout’ mode on a fairly regular basis.

But Manning’s arm strength clearly declined down the stretch last year and new head coach Gary Kubiak and his staff have made it very clear – they’re going to be a run first offense this year with CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman getting the lion’s share of carries.  Manning is not expected to stretch the field with his arm.  We’re going to see a concerted effort to keep Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Denver Broncos Teddy Covers




NFL Preseason Gambling: Ravens dealing with offensive line injuries

08.28.2015     07:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Despite a slew of injuries across its offensive line, the playing time for Baltimore's starters won't be impacted according to head coach John Harbaugh. The Ravens (-4) play host to Washington on Saturday night.


“I think if something happens in the game, it possibly could [have an affect], but the way we’re going into the game, to start the game, we’re comfortable with the guys we have playing on the starting offensive line,” Harbaugh said Wednesday. “They’ll do a great job.”

“Lord willing, we’ll have enough to play,” offensive coordinator Marc Trestman said Tuesday, only half-joking. “And I say that with great sincerity and hope that we’ll get enough guys that we can play. But we have enough, and we’re excited for them.”






Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Washington Redskins




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Recap

08.24.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In the NFL Preseason, when coaches almost never play for a late game tie to force overtime, there’s an enormous difference between laying -1 and -2.5.  Games decided by final margins or 1 or 2 points are relatively rare once September rolls around.  In August, they are commonplace.   Three games were decided by a single point this past weekend, in Week 2 of the preseason, with the Bills beating the Browns 11-10, the Chiefs beating the Seahawks 14-13 and the Panthers beating the Dolphins 31-30.

Both Kansas City-Seattle and Carolina-Miami produced a win, loss or push based on betting skills, not handicapping skills, with lines on both games moving up throughout the course of the week.   In addition, the Patriots pulled off the comeback of the weekend to beat New Orleans 26-24, a two point margin.  Meanwhile, there was only one game finishing with a final margin of three points; the Chargers 22-19 win at Arizona. 

It was a similar story in Week 1, with more games finishing with 1 or 2 point final margins than games that were decided by exactly three points.   With two more weeks of these meaningless Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's new offensive coordinators Part 2

07.27.2015     08:04 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in my Wiseguy Report, I wrote about a half dozen offensive coordinator changes in the NFL this past offseason.  This week, I’ll finish my analysis of the other half dozen offensive coordinator changes from around the league, with specific focus on how big of a change and how steep of a learning curve these offenses face.  Coordinators are listed in alphabetical order based on their new teams.

Kyle Shanahan, Atlanta Falcons - Shanahan’s dad was certainly a major factor in Kyle’s first few NFL coordinator jobs; none of which have been particularly successful.  Shanahan worked under Mike Shanahan protégé Gary Kubiak as OC in Houston in 2008-2009, and then worked under his dad for four years with the Redskins.  During that span, his team’s reached the playoffs only once – the ill-fated RG3 injury game against Seattle.  Last year’s debacle in Cleveland didn’t exactly bolster his Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Gambling: 2015 Coaching Changes

06.29.2015     09:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick look at college football's head coaching changes for the upcoming 2015 season.

Buffalo
Out: Jeff Quinn
In: Lance Leipold
Quick Take: Leipold won six D3 titles in eight years at UW-Whitewater.

Central Michigan
Out: Dan Enos
In: John Bonamego
Quick Take: Bonamego is a CMU grad and spent the last 15 years serving as a special teams coordinator in the NFL.

Colorado State
Out: Jim McElwain
In: Mike Bobo
Quick Take: Bobo served as Georgia's OC since 2007.

Florida
Out: Will Muschamp
In: Jim McElwain
Quick Take: McElwain helped rebuild Colorado State where he went 22-16 during a three-year stint.

Houston
Out: Tony Levine
In: Tom Herman
Quick Take: Herman served as Ohio State's OC for three seasons.

Kansas
Out: Charlie Weis
In: David Beaty
Quick Take: Beaty marks the third head coach in six years for the Jayhawks. He most recently served as Texas A&M's wide receiver coach and previously coached at Read more



Tags: College Football




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL Preseason Week 2

08.18.2014     09:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about how after a significant five year run of Overs in the preseason, Week 1 of the 2014 preseason brought a 13-4 mark to the Under.  So what happened in Week 2? With 15 games in the books as I write this on Monday morning, Overs have gone 9-6, cashing at a 60% clip throughout the course of the weekend.  That Week 1 run of Unders certainly didn’t last very long.

What’s behind the high scoring affairs from Week 2?  Penalties, penalties and more penalties; with flags up more than 50% from last year through the first two weeks of August.  And the biggest increases in penalties have come via the rule changes tied to pass defense.  Defensive holding, illegal contact and pass interference calls galore have become the new norm. 

The rule changes have most assuredly affected the totals markets for Week 1 of the regular season.  Historically, Week 1 is the lowest scoring week of the first three months of the season (when weather really starts to Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Preseason Handicapping: Baltimore starters to play a quarter vs. Dallas

08.15.2014     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Dallas pk O/U 41.5

Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh said his starters will play about a quarter during Saturday's preseason tilt at Dallas.


“We’ll have some play counts for a few guys, including [quarterback] Joe [Flacco] and some of the defensive players, but we’ll see how it goes,” Harbaugh said “Basically, [the starters will play] about a quarter.”

"That’s going to be [dictated by] the way the game goes, how many plays we get on offense,” Harbaugh said. “Tyrod needs work—not that Keith doesn’t also, but Tyrod has had lots of practice time here. He hasn’t had as much game time.. Tyrod’s a very good quarterback, but the chance to play it out in games is

Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Dallas Cowboys




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.18.2013     12:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s late November.  Thanksgiving is next week.  And that means it’s time for me to take a break from my typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season.

It’s time to focus on the big boys – teams with playoff aspirations.  Who can get hot down the stretch and make us some money winning games and covering pointspreads?  Which squads are legitimate Super Bowl contenders; which are pretenders.  Let’s take look through the NFC this week, gauging which squads have ATS value moving forward, and which squads have already reached their zenith, poised to tumble back to earth down the stretch.

I did not include notes on Carolina (they don’t play till Monday Night) and Dallas (on bye this week) due to space limitations.  That leaves Philadelphia, the New York Giants, Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona to consider; all of whom remain live for the postseason as Week 12 approaches.

Serious Super Bowl Contenders

Seattle Seahawks - I Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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