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NFL Gambling Preview: Balitmore Ravens at Denver Broncos

09.11.2015     07:07 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Baltimore at Denver
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Denver -4 O/U 52
CRIS Current: Denver -4.5 O/U 48.5
Recommendation: Under

Few teams in the NFL have changed their expected gameplan as much as the Denver Broncos here in 2015.  Last year, Denver spent the majority of the season in a quick strike, pass heavy offense.  Denver ranked among the top five teams in the NFL, averaging 6.0 yards per play.  Peyton Manning threw for more than 4,700 yards, completing 39 touchdown passes and more than 66% of his throws.  Meanwhile, the Broncos defense was riddled with key injuries, forcing them into ‘Offensive Shootout’ mode on a fairly regular basis.

But Manning’s arm strength clearly declined down the stretch last year and new head coach Gary Kubiak and his staff have made it very clear – they’re going to be a run first offense this year with CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman getting the lion’s share of carries.  Manning is not expected to stretch the field with his arm.  We’re going to see a concerted effort to keep Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Denver Broncos Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Gambling: Ravens dealing with offensive line injuries

08.28.2015     07:09 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Despite a slew of injuries across its offensive line, the playing time for Baltimore's starters won't be impacted according to head coach John Harbaugh. The Ravens (-4) play host to Washington on Saturday night.

“I think if something happens in the game, it possibly could [have an affect], but the way we’re going into the game, to start the game, we’re comfortable with the guys we have playing on the starting offensive line,” Harbaugh said Wednesday. “They’ll do a great job.”

“Lord willing, we’ll have enough to play,” offensive coordinator Marc Trestman said Tuesday, only half-joking. “And I say that with great sincerity and hope that we’ll get enough guys that we can play. But we have enough, and we’re excited for them.”

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Washington Redskins

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Recap

08.24.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In the NFL Preseason, when coaches almost never play for a late game tie to force overtime, there’s an enormous difference between laying -1 and -2.5.  Games decided by final margins or 1 or 2 points are relatively rare once September rolls around.  In August, they are commonplace.   Three games were decided by a single point this past weekend, in Week 2 of the preseason, with the Bills beating the Browns 11-10, the Chiefs beating the Seahawks 14-13 and the Panthers beating the Dolphins 31-30.

Both Kansas City-Seattle and Carolina-Miami produced a win, loss or push based on betting skills, not handicapping skills, with lines on both games moving up throughout the course of the week.   In addition, the Patriots pulled off the comeback of the weekend to beat New Orleans 26-24, a two point margin.  Meanwhile, there was only one game finishing with a final margin of three points; the Chargers 22-19 win at Arizona. 

It was a similar story in Week 1, with more games finishing with 1 or 2 point final margins than games that were decided by exactly three points.   With two more weeks of these meaningless Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's new offensive coordinators Part 2

07.27.2015     08:04 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in my Wiseguy Report, I wrote about a half dozen offensive coordinator changes in the NFL this past offseason.  This week, I’ll finish my analysis of the other half dozen offensive coordinator changes from around the league, with specific focus on how big of a change and how steep of a learning curve these offenses face.  Coordinators are listed in alphabetical order based on their new teams.

Kyle Shanahan, Atlanta Falcons - Shanahan’s dad was certainly a major factor in Kyle’s first few NFL coordinator jobs; none of which have been particularly successful.  Shanahan worked under Mike Shanahan protégé Gary Kubiak as OC in Houston in 2008-2009, and then worked under his dad for four years with the Redskins.  During that span, his team’s reached the playoffs only once – the ill-fated RG3 injury game against Seattle.  Last year’s debacle in Cleveland didn’t exactly bolster his Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

College Football Gambling: 2015 Coaching Changes

06.29.2015     09:00 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Quick look at college football's head coaching changes for the upcoming 2015 season.

Out: Jeff Quinn
In: Lance Leipold
Quick Take: Leipold won six D3 titles in eight years at UW-Whitewater.

Central Michigan
Out: Dan Enos
In: John Bonamego
Quick Take: Bonamego is a CMU grad and spent the last 15 years serving as a special teams coordinator in the NFL.

Colorado State
Out: Jim McElwain
In: Mike Bobo
Quick Take: Bobo served as Georgia's OC since 2007.

Out: Will Muschamp
In: Jim McElwain
Quick Take: McElwain helped rebuild Colorado State where he went 22-16 during a three-year stint.

Out: Tony Levine
In: Tom Herman
Quick Take: Herman served as Ohio State's OC for three seasons.

Out: Charlie Weis
In: David Beaty
Quick Take: Beaty marks the third head coach in six years for the Jayhawks. He most recently served as Texas A&M's wide receiver coach and previously coached at Read more

Tags: College Football

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL Preseason Week 2

08.18.2014     09:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about how after a significant five year run of Overs in the preseason, Week 1 of the 2014 preseason brought a 13-4 mark to the Under.  So what happened in Week 2? With 15 games in the books as I write this on Monday morning, Overs have gone 9-6, cashing at a 60% clip throughout the course of the weekend.  That Week 1 run of Unders certainly didn’t last very long.

What’s behind the high scoring affairs from Week 2?  Penalties, penalties and more penalties; with flags up more than 50% from last year through the first two weeks of August.  And the biggest increases in penalties have come via the rule changes tied to pass defense.  Defensive holding, illegal contact and pass interference calls galore have become the new norm. 

The rule changes have most assuredly affected the totals markets for Week 1 of the regular season.  Historically, Week 1 is the lowest scoring week of the first three months of the season (when weather really starts to Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Baltimore starters to play a quarter vs. Dallas

08.15.2014     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Baltimore at Dallas pk O/U 41.5

Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh said his starters will play about a quarter during Saturday's preseason tilt at Dallas.

“We’ll have some play counts for a few guys, including [quarterback] Joe [Flacco] and some of the defensive players, but we’ll see how it goes,” Harbaugh said “Basically, [the starters will play] about a quarter.”

"That’s going to be [dictated by] the way the game goes, how many plays we get on offense,” Harbaugh said. “Tyrod needs work—not that Keith doesn’t also, but Tyrod has had lots of practice time here. He hasn’t had as much game time.. Tyrod’s a very good quarterback, but the chance to play it out in games is

Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Dallas Cowboys

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.18.2013     12:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
It’s late November.  Thanksgiving is next week.  And that means it’s time for me to take a break from my typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season.

It’s time to focus on the big boys – teams with playoff aspirations.  Who can get hot down the stretch and make us some money winning games and covering pointspreads?  Which squads are legitimate Super Bowl contenders; which are pretenders.  Let’s take look through the NFC this week, gauging which squads have ATS value moving forward, and which squads have already reached their zenith, poised to tumble back to earth down the stretch.

I did not include notes on Carolina (they don’t play till Monday Night) and Dallas (on bye this week) due to space limitations.  That leaves Philadelphia, the New York Giants, Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona to consider; all of whom remain live for the postseason as Week 12 approaches.

Serious Super Bowl Contenders

Seattle Seahawks - I Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 1

09.09.2013     07:30 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC Tidbits from Week 1.

Chicago Bears – Sure, the Bears didn't make the playoffs last year, but they won ten games and were one of the league's better teams. This defense can still make plenty of big plays, as evidenced by Charles Tillman's huge game and their complete domination against the run here. Jay Cutler did a great job finding open receivers on third and long. He connected on a pair of third and longs into very tight windows on Chicago's first touchdown drive. The revamped offensive line didn't do much for run blocking, but they gave Cutler all the time he needed all afternoon.

Cutler can still scramble out of pressure and his mobility created several opportunities that wouldn't have been there otherwise. But Cutler's propensity for making mistakes at crucial times was on display here, a horrible pass on first down as the Bears were driving in the fourth quarter. However, he made the most of his next Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals New Orleans Saints

NFL Betting Recap: Manning Up...Broncos Avenge Playoff Loss in 49-27 Win over Ravens

09.06.2013     05:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A hard-hitting and exciting first half turned out to be the highlight of the first NFL game of the 2013 season. Denver would take advantage of Baltimore miscues to blow the game open (leading to a huge statistical performance for Peyton Manning). It turned Denver's way with this sequence:

*Baltimore’s Dallas Clark drops a sure TD pass with a few seconds left in the first half. Baltimore has to settle for a field goal and a 17-14 halftime lead.

*Baltimore forces a punt on Denver’s first series of the second half. But, the refs don’t see it that way and give the Broncos a first down on a pass Wes Welker didn’t actually catch before the ball hit the ground. Ravens coach John Harbaugh didn’t challenge in time (Manning got to the line quickly and ran a play). It was going to be Baltimore leading 17-14 with the ball (and it could have been 21-14). Instead, Denver scored a TD three plays later for a 21-17 advantage.

*Baltimore goes 3-and-out Read more

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens Stat Intelligence


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