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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL Preseason Week 2

08.18.2014     09:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about how after a significant five year run of Overs in the preseason, Week 1 of the 2014 preseason brought a 13-4 mark to the Under.  So what happened in Week 2? With 15 games in the books as I write this on Monday morning, Overs have gone 9-6, cashing at a 60% clip throughout the course of the weekend.  That Week 1 run of Unders certainly didn’t last very long.

What’s behind the high scoring affairs from Week 2?  Penalties, penalties and more penalties; with flags up more than 50% from last year through the first two weeks of August.  And the biggest increases in penalties have come via the rule changes tied to pass defense.  Defensive holding, illegal contact and pass interference calls galore have become the new norm. 

The rule changes have most assuredly affected the totals markets for Week 1 of the regular season.  Historically, Week 1 is the lowest scoring week of the first three months of the season (when weather really starts to Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Preseason Handicapping: Baltimore starters to play a quarter vs. Dallas

08.15.2014     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Dallas pk O/U 41.5

Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh said his starters will play about a quarter during Saturday's preseason tilt at Dallas.


“We’ll have some play counts for a few guys, including [quarterback] Joe [Flacco] and some of the defensive players, but we’ll see how it goes,” Harbaugh said “Basically, [the starters will play] about a quarter.”

"That’s going to be [dictated by] the way the game goes, how many plays we get on offense,” Harbaugh said. “Tyrod needs work—not that Keith doesn’t also, but Tyrod has had lots of practice time here. He hasn’t had as much game time.. Tyrod’s a very good quarterback, but the chance to play it out in games is Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Dallas Cowboys




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.18.2013     12:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s late November.  Thanksgiving is next week.  And that means it’s time for me to take a break from my typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season.

It’s time to focus on the big boys – teams with playoff aspirations.  Who can get hot down the stretch and make us some money winning games and covering pointspreads?  Which squads are legitimate Super Bowl contenders; which are pretenders.  Let’s take look through the NFC this week, gauging which squads have ATS value moving forward, and which squads have already reached their zenith, poised to tumble back to earth down the stretch.

I did not include notes on Carolina (they don’t play till Monday Night) and Dallas (on bye this week) due to space limitations.  That leaves Philadelphia, the New York Giants, Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona to consider; all of whom remain live for the postseason as Week 12 approaches.

Serious Super Bowl Contenders

Seattle Seahawks - I Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 1

09.09.2013     07:30 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC Tidbits from Week 1.

Chicago Bears – Sure, the Bears didn't make the playoffs last year, but they won ten games and were one of the league's better teams. This defense can still make plenty of big plays, as evidenced by Charles Tillman's huge game and their complete domination against the run here. Jay Cutler did a great job finding open receivers on third and long. He connected on a pair of third and longs into very tight windows on Chicago's first touchdown drive. The revamped offensive line didn't do much for run blocking, but they gave Cutler all the time he needed all afternoon.

Cutler can still scramble out of pressure and his mobility created several opportunities that wouldn't have been there otherwise. But Cutler's propensity for making mistakes at crucial times was on display here, a horrible pass on first down as the Bears were driving in the fourth quarter. However, he made the most of his next Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals New Orleans Saints




NFL Betting Recap: Manning Up...Broncos Avenge Playoff Loss in 49-27 Win over Ravens

09.06.2013     05:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A hard-hitting and exciting first half turned out to be the highlight of the first NFL game of the 2013 season. Denver would take advantage of Baltimore miscues to blow the game open (leading to a huge statistical performance for Peyton Manning). It turned Denver's way with this sequence:

*Baltimore’s Dallas Clark drops a sure TD pass with a few seconds left in the first half. Baltimore has to settle for a field goal and a 17-14 halftime lead.

*Baltimore forces a punt on Denver’s first series of the second half. But, the refs don’t see it that way and give the Broncos a first down on a pass Wes Welker didn’t actually catch before the ball hit the ground. Ravens coach John Harbaugh didn’t challenge in time (Manning got to the line quickly and ran a play). It was going to be Baltimore leading 17-14 with the ball (and it could have been 21-14). Instead, Denver scored a TD three plays later for a 21-17 advantage.

*Baltimore goes 3-and-out Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Gambling: Recapping Thursday's Games

08.09.2013     06:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Busy night of exhibition action. Let’s crunch some numbers so you have more than just the final scores at your fingertips. If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score "should" have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15. 

Baltimore 44, Tampa Bay 16

Total Yardage: Baltimore 332, Tampa Bay 273

Passing Stats: Baltimore 21-34-1-204, Tampa Bay 17-36-3-193

Turnovers: Baltimore 1, Tampa Bay 4

Drive Points: Baltimore 14, Tampa Bay 3

Stat Score: Baltimore 21, Tampa Bay 16

Baltimore had a cheap TD on a blocked punt in the end zone that they recovered for a TD, and they took advantage of a bit turnover advantage (a blocked punt isn’t a turnover, so it was a Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Betting: Baltimore not ready to divulge game plan

08.07.2013     06:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay -3 O/U 35.5

For NFL preseason bettors, there is nothing worse than a coach who decided to play coy with his game plan. Here we have Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh acting like a reporter just asked him for the team's entire playbook (and binder).


"Yeah, we're not going to play the starters for the whole game," Harbaugh said. "How much we play them remains to be seen. We've got a plan. It's a little different because we play on Thursday, so we play a little bit sooner than we play most years."

"Right now, we're planning on playing guys," Harbaugh said.





Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Tampa Bay Buccaneers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Baltimore Ravens pegged for regression in 2013

06.24.2013     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the Kansas City Chiefs, using them as the poster child for an NFL team that the betting markets expect significant improvement from in 2013.  This week, I’ll be writing about the Baltimore Ravens, using John Harbaugh’s squad as the poster child for a team the betting markets expect to regress significantly in the upcoming campaign.  Why do the markets disrespect Baltimore so much?  Read on to find out!

Let me start by clarifying exactly how the betting markets aren’t impressed with the Ravens heading into the start of training camp.  The numbers show it clearly.  The defending Super Bowl champs are lined as an 8.5 win team.  Eleven different teams are lined higher (Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, New England, New Orleans, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle; all lined at nine wins or more).  Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas and Indianapolis are all lined in the same range (8.5 wins) as Baltimore.  Clearly, from a season wins perspective, the markets aren’t impressed with Baltimore, ranking them as a middle-of-the-pack ballclub.
It’s the same story for Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Championship News and Quotes

01.14.2013     07:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re down to the Final Four in the NFL Playoffs, with two compelling championship game matchups set for next Sunday. I’ve spent all year writing about these teams using my own words. This week, I thought it would make an interesting read to focus on the numerous quotes offered by various players and coaches. Who’s saying what heading into the biggest games of the season? In Part II, we take a look at the AFC Championship with New England a 9-point favorite vs. Baltimore. Click here for the NFC.

New England Patriots – All the Patriots quotes come straight out of ‘Coach Speak 101’ – New England is not a great team for publicizing what’s going on internally, and they certainly won’t say anything to give their opponent any sort of motivational edge.  That being said, there was legitimate concern on the roster following the season ending injury for their top red zone threat, tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Tom Brady following his NFL Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the AFC's Final Four

01.07.2013     08:02 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.

It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21 Unders compared to 19 Overs. But over the last two years, it’s 7-1 to the Over. In the two years before that, it was 6-2 to the Under. In the two years prior to that, Overs and Unders Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Houston Texans Denver Broncos New England Patriots Teddy Covers



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