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MLB Betting Game Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals

07.07.2011     01:00 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Arizona (Saunders) +130 at St. Louis (McClellan) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Arizona

My clients and I cashed an underdog ticket supporting Joe Saunders in his last outing; a seven-inning, two-run gem at Oakland.  This is nothing new or different for Saunders in recent weeks. He threw seven innings of one-run ball at Detroit and seven innings of two-run ball at KC in his two previous starts.  In fact, seven of his nine road outings this season have resulted in quality starts – six innings or more of work, three earned runs or less allowed.

Arizona is 6-3 in Saunders’ last nine trips to the hill overall.  Plus, the D-backs are 17-8 in their last 25 on the highway and 12-6 in their last 18 as underdogs of +110 or higher; offering consistent plus price returns for their supporters.  Coming off a poor showing to close out their series in Milwaukee yesterday, look for a strong bounceback effort from Kirk Gibson’s squad tonight.

The Cardinals lost a 14-inning Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Kyle McClellan Arizona Diamondbacks Joe Saunders Teddy Covers

MLB Betting Alert: Extra innings cause heavy work on bullpens

07.07.2011     06:19 AM     Printer Friendly
Cincinnati/St. Louis - Fourteen relievers were used in the Reds' 13-inning, 9-8 victory. Cincinnati opens up a four-game set in Milwaukee tonight. St. Louis remains at home for a four-game series against Arizona. Cardinals’ starter Kyle McClellan has topped the 100-pitch mark only once this season and will toss tonight. Cinci's Homer Bailey is making only his second start since coming off the DL. He last 7 innings and threw 105 pitches last time out.

San Diego/San Francisco - Last night the Giants won 6-5 in 14 innings. A total of 10 relievers were used by both teams – five of which went two innings. Amazingly, or perhaps not when you consider the offenses, both squads combined for 36 strikeouts and only four walks. Barry Zito should be well rested having thrown only 80 pitches in his last start. SD's Cory Luebke has made only five career starts and has spent much of 2011 as a reliever. He's off a season high 87 pitches last time out.

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays

06.01.2011     06:36 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cleveland (Tomlin) at Toronto (Drabek) -120 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

Last week, we saw some regression with Cleveland's Josh Tomlin as Texas got to him for 10 hits, two home runs, and four runs in six innings. Tonight, we'll stick to the philosophy that Tomlin's overall numbers just don't match his true identity as he faces a solid Toronto offense that has thrived at home (.276 BA/.802 OPS). Opposing Tomlin will be Kyle Drabek who has been up and down in his first full season in the bigs. The concern for Drabek is his control with 42 walks in 62.2 innings. That isn't a good matchup with umpire Tim McClelland behind the plate. McClelland is 8-2 O/U on the season and typically sports a tight strike zone. The roof at the Rogers Centre is expected to be open which means we can step in and play the over with the key number of 8.5 still available.

Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Kyle Drabek Cleveland Indians Josh Tomlin Andrew Lange

Baseball Betting: Cardinals finding ways to bolster bullpen

05.28.2011     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
With the strong eight innings tossed by Chris Carpenter on Wednesday, the St. Louis starting staff has now posted nine quality starts in its last 11 games. During this recent surge, they’re putting up some very impressive numbers including an average of 7 IP, 13.86 pitches per inning, 0.92 WHIP and 1.86 ERA. Cards starters have only yielded 11 free passes over the 77.1 innings and own a 4.1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. After three consecutive poor outings, Carpenter’s back to back quality starts are a welcome sight. The fact that the precision based right-hander did not walk a batter in those 14.3 innings could be a signal that he’s getting back to form. The unbelievable turnaround by each of the Kyle’s (McClellan and Lohse) continues to propel the St. Louis staff as does the excellent work of lefty Jaime Garcia.

The biggest key to the 9-2 mark recorded by St. Louis since May 16 is the improvement made by the bullpen. Undoubtedly the weakest and most chaotic link of this team all season long, Cardinals Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Rob Veno

MLB Handicapping: Buy Low on these starting pitchers

05.11.2011     11:39 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
This young MLB season isn’t quite so young anymore. We’re six weeks into the campaign, and already, like every year, we’ve got a bevy of misleading statistics to work with. My goal in this article is to identify a handful of starting pitchers that are already mispriced.

As I’ve written before, handicapping is not about identifying good or bad teams – the standings do that. Many bettors, me included, tend to avoid making many wagers on the very best or against the very worst ballclubs – those teams tend to be priced appropriately. Instead, beating the modern betting marketplace is about identifying value squads (and in MLB, identifying value pitchers) – both good and bad – that are mispriced in the short to medium term.

Last year, the three most profitable MLB teams to support were the San Diego Padres, the Cincinnati Reds and the Toronto Blue Jays. Only one of the three made the playoffs and none were considered elite teams at any point in the campaign.

On Read more

Tags: MLB Erik Bedard Madison Bumgarner Daniel Hudson Jordan Zimmermann Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros

04.28.2011     11:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
St Louis (McClellan) -150 at Houston (Figueroa) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: St. Louis

Nelson Figueroa’s numbers to start the season are not an aberration.  He’s been lit up three times in four outings, giving up 31 hits and 24 runs in just 20 innings of work.  Figueroa’s 12-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio doesn’t inspire confidence.  His only good start all year came against a Padres lineup that can’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag.

This is nothing new or different for the 36 year old righty.  Figueroa has crapped out everywhere he’s been at the big league level, failing to stick with Arizona, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, New York or even here in Houston.  He’s merely keeping the seat warm for heralded hurler Jordan Lyles who is still working of things in Triple-A. Behind their second-tier starter, the Astros bullpen is anything but reliable, with four losses and five blown saves already.  And don’t forget that Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Kyle McClellan Houston Astros Nelson Figueroa Teddy Covers



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