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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: The NFL's square/sharp divide

10.05.2015     07:50 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
On Twitter every Sunday, there’s always significant discussion of what the NFL sharp/square divide games are for that day.  There’s an old quote from legendary Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro that goes like this: “Squares bet teams, sharps bet numbers.”  And there’s plenty of truth to that quote.  For example, at the weekly Tuesday Group football discussion for pro bettors here in Vegas, nobody says “I like team X this weekend.”  They say, “I like Team X at +3 or higher.”  Recreational players, on the other hand, have a general tendency to focus on teams, not pointspreads. 

That gives pros a leg up when it comes to catching half point wins instead of half point losses in games that finish with a final margin right around the pointspread or total.  Last Thursday’s Ravens-Steelers game is a classic example of that.  Line shoppers, by definition, at least somewhat sharp, won laying -2.5 with Baltimore and pushed taking +3 with Pittsburgh, able to avoid a losing ticket regardless of which side they bet.  The vast majority of non-line shoppers took a push with either Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Las Vegas casino dealers busted for $1 million scam

10.05.2015     07:34 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The long con. A couple of dealers and buddies took down the Bellagio for over $1 million over the span of two years. Of course we wouldn't be discussing this if they didn't get busted.

"Cheating is common," Taylor told The Associated Press. "We arrest 350 to 500 people a year for cheating or theft from a casino. But to have it go this long and for this much money is unusual."

"Fortunately, someone noticed and came forward," he said.

Tags: Las Vegas

PokerStars and Full Tilt approved in New Jersey

10.05.2015     07:23 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
PokerStars and Full Tilt have been given the go ahead to operate in New Jersey.

"We look forward to bringing our popular brands, innovative technology, marketing prowess and world-class security and game integrity to the growing New Jersey online gaming market," he said.

Tags: Poker

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early season college football money burners

09.28.2015     08:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in my Wiseguy Report, I look an in-depth look at the 13 teams that started the college football season 3-0 ATS.   In general, those teams had quite a few commonalities:

“Non-descript teams that aren’t getting much hype or love from the preseason betting markets, the preseason publications or the preseason talking heads.  Teams coming off a bad bowl loss or a late season collapse are definitely worth an extra look, as are teams replacing an experienced, but perhaps underachieving, quarterback.”

I concluded the article with this paragraph: “These early season ATS outliers are NOT likely to continue their red hot runs.  The under-the-radar concept when it comes to finding strong ATS teams in early season play holds sway when it comes to early season results as well.  Many, if not most, of the elite ATS teams in college football this year have already lost at least once against the spread, putting them squarely under-the-radar as potential elite ATS squads moving forward."

If you bet on all 13 of the teams that entered last weekend with a 3-0 ATS mark, you lost money.  Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

MNF Gambling News: Bettors not deterred by Aaron Rodgers' track record at Lambeau

09.28.2015     08:11 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Despite Aaron Rodgers' video game-like stats and results at Lambeau Field, the betting markets continue to show support for the underdog Kansas City Chiefs for tonight's MNF game. Rodgers’ career QB rating currently sits at a Hall of Fame worthy 106.4. At home since 2013, it's a ridiculous 129.8 thanks to a 35-0 TD-to-INT ratio. CRIS opened the game Green Bay -6.5 and it quickly went to -7. Since then, a steady trickle of KC money has the line down to -5.5 offshore and -6 in Las Vegas.

Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Green Bay Packers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early season college football money makers

09.21.2015     09:15 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re already a quarter of the way through the college football season, with the first three weekends in the rear view mirror.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’m going to focus on the early season pointspread outliers.  Of the 128 FBS teams that we see lines on every week, 13 have gone 3-0 ATS to open the season. Ten have gone 0-3 ATS.  Because of space limitations, I’m going to focus on the 3-0 teams this week, while taking a closer look at the struggling ATS squads in next week’s article. 

What should we expect from these hot ATS teams moving forward?  And how can we look for those outlier teams from the get-go next year?  Read on to find out.

Ole Miss, NC State, Northwestern, Ohio, Air Force, BYU, Buffalo, Middle Tennessee State, Rice, Southern Miss, Washington, Central Michigan and SMU.  The only obvious commonality between those 13 squads is their 3-0 ATS mark.  I could easily add the likes of Texas Tech and Colorado State to this list, both 2-0-1 ATS.  And 2-0 ATS Navy hasn’t played three games yet; worthy of inclusion into this discussion. 

Even if we Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers Las Vegas

NFL Betting Alert: Jets taking money for tonight's MNF game vs. Colts

09.21.2015     08:49 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Early morning action in the NFL betting markets as a wave of money came pouring in on the New York Jets. The Colts were -7 even money but are now as low as -6.5 -105 offshore. Still a few -7's in Las Vegas. Indy opened -6 last week. The total has clicked down from 46.5/47 to 46. According to Sports Options, 72% of the public is on Indianapolis and 59% on the over.

Tags: NFL New York Jets Indianapolis Colts

Las Vegas welcomes new addition to Black Book

09.18.2015     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A gambler who reportedly turned $50 into $40 million (and lost it all) was added to Las Vegas' infamous Black Book.

Tags: Las Vegas

College Football Betting Preview: Calofornia Golden Bears at Texas Longhorns

09.18.2015     07:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
California at Texas
Saturday, 4:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
California -3 O/U 60
CRIS Current: California -7 O/U 58
Recommendation: Texas

We’re getting a real pointspread bargain here thanks to the nuances of the betting marketplace here in September.   The bettable line for this game from the Westgate Superbook here in Las Vegas, exactly one month ago, was Texas -9.5.  Let me repeat that: Texas -9.5.  Personnel wise, virtually nothing has changed in the last month.  But the perception of these two teams has changed in the markets, and that offers us legitimate value.

Cal was a hot team in the betting markets in Week 1, taking money against FCS Grambling.  They closed as 45-point favorites and covered the spread by two touchdowns.  Last week, the money poured in on the Bears immediately after the line was posted.  Cal opened as low as -7 against San Diego State, but they closed -13 and again, covered the spread by two touchdowns.

What have we seen this week?  The exact same betting pattern!  Cal opened as -3 favorites Read more

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12 Texas Longhorns Big XII Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How the NFL betting markets have changed

09.14.2015     08:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
When I first moved to Las Vegas just prior to the 1998 football season, I was not an experienced, seasoned bettor.  There was a TON to learn, and for my first few years in town, I made sure to consume every bit of handicapping material I could find, primarily through books, newsletters and radio.  And just about all of that source material referenced some key NFL concepts for winning.

“Don’t play road favorites; they’re a low expectation wager.”  “Week 1 in the NFL is the lowest scoring week until the cold weather hits – look for Unders, especially with the highest totals.”  “Beware the public teams; you’re laying a premium price to support them.”  “There’s more value in underdogs than in favorites.”  “The key numbers of ‘3’ and ‘7’ are crucial to have working in your favor.”  I could go on and on, but you get the point.  I’m quite confident that 18 years later, many relative newbies continue to rely on very similar concepts.  The conventional wisdom in the sportsbetting world, even for a sport as popular to Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers


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