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September

27

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Handicapping the NFL post-Week 1

09.12.2016     10:58 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 1 of the NFL season routinely tells lies.  The goal of any winning handicapper has to be figuring out which teams were lying in their Week 1 performances.

Look no further than last year for some excellent examples.  On opening day of the 2015 NFL season, the Tennessee Titans blew out Tampa Bay 42-14.  Marcus Mariota looked like a superstar, throwing four TD passes in his NFL debut and finishing the game with a perfect passer rating. 

If you bet the Titans the following week, you watched them lose outright by two touchdowns to the NFL’s worst team, Cleveland.   Mariota threw only five TD passes over the next four weeks before getting hurt.  Tennessee finished the season tied for the worst pointspread record in the NFL, cashing only three winning bets in their final 15 games.  The Titans lied to us in Week 1.

Remember when the Dolphins beat the Redskins, and covered as four point road favorites in Washington, thanks to a Jarvis Landry punt return touchdown in the fourth quarter.    Miami lost their next three games so badly that head coach Joe Philbin didn’t survive their bye Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL SuperContest proxy services continue to grown in popularity

09.09.2016     09:03 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cool article by ESPN Chalk about the various proxy services that have emerged for the famed NFL SuperContest.


"The main reason for the growth of the SuperContest is social media. [It] is the avenue that out-of-staters used to find out they could enter a Las Vegas handicapping contest. We don't advertise in Chicago or anything," he says.






Tags: NFL SuperContest




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Ranking all 32 NFL teams heading into Week 1

09.06.2016     08:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL Preseason is in the rear view mirror, with Week 1 kicking off on Thursday as Carolina travels to Denver as -3 road favorites.  Here’s how I have all 32 teams ranked heading into the regular season.

1. Carolina Panthers  - Cam Newton and Carolina’s offense are poised to rank among the most potent attacks in the NFL.  Watch out for the Funchess/Benjamin WR duo!

2. Seattle Seahawks - Russell Wilson gave an MVP caliber performance in 2015, but his ability to repeat that effort could be stunted by the Seahawks offensive line woes.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers come out of camp with a full complement of healthy weapons for Aaron Rodgers, good news after Rodgers numbers took a big hit without Jordy Nelson last year.

4. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona returns just about every key player on both sides of the ball from a team that ranked among the NFL’s elite in 2015.

5. New England Patriots - If Tom Brady was at quarterback, this team would be ranked #1.  But with Jimmy Garappolo behind center, the Pats take a modest tumble in my rankings.

6. Kansas City Chiefs - Andy Reid’s Read more



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Denver Broncos Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Reevaluating NFL teams during the preseason

08.29.2016     09:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you read my NFL previews over the summer months (eight different Wiseguy Reports, one for each division), you know that I had some pretty strong opinions about a good handful of teams prior to the start of training camp and preseason.  In fact, 15 of the 32 NFL teams were on my initial short list for potential season win total bets, just shy of half the league.  These were all teams that, on paper, looked better or worse than initial oddsmaker projections.

After watching three weeks of NFL Preseason action, most of my initial opinions have been reinforced, and the betting markets have agreed with the vast majority of the win total wagers that I’ve made and those I’ve advised my clients to make.  That being said, I’ve changed my opinion on a handful of those 15 teams, in several cases rather strongly.  In this week’s wiseguy report, I’m going to flesh out what I’ve seen in the Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens that have me thinking very differently about those squads today compared to my opinion of them a month ago.

For the Redskins, the change in thought process is Read more



Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Washington Redskins Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




NFL Betting Preview Podcast 8-23-2016: New York Giants

08.23.2016     11:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy continued his coverage of the NFC East with a breakdown of the New York Giants.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 8/24
Handicapper: Teddy Covers
Team: New York Giants
2015-16 Record: 6-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 11-5 O/U
Season O/U Wins: 8ov-130
Odds to Win NFC: +1500
Odds to Win NFC East: +210
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +3350
Week 1 Line: NY Giants +3.5 at Dallas

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.




Tags: NFL New York Giants Teddy Covers




NFL Betting Preview Podcast 8-22-2016: Dallas Cowboys

08.22.2016     11:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy kicked off his coverage of the NFC East with a breakdown of the Dallas Cowboys.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 8/22
Handicapper: Teddy Covers
Team: Dallas Cowboys
2015-16 Record: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U
Season O/U Wins: 9ov-135
Odds to Win NFC: +1050
Odds to Win NFC East: +175
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +2350
Week 1 Line: Dallas -3.5 vs. NY Giants

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.




Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Handicapping Part II

08.22.2016     09:04 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, in Part I of my Wiseguy Report on NFL Preseason Betting strategies, I listed a handful of key mantras for winning in August. Don’t confuse a team’s regular season capabilities with their preseason goals.  Bet on teams in August that have a battle for their starting QB spot.  Know your coaches and their track records in various roles (and in various weeks).  And bet information, not opinions. 

All of those stand as solid mainstream advice; the stuff the markets are paying attention to.  This week, in Part II — preseason advanced handicapping methods —  I’m going to write about the things that the markets don’t pay enough attention to...but they probably should!

Let me start with a bold statement: "3" is not the most important key number when it comes to betting in the NFL reason.  Neither is "7".  No, the most important pointspread number in August is the number "1."  Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Handicapping Part I

08.15.2016     02:03 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 1 of the 2016 NFL Preseason is in the books, with underdog bettors showing a modest profit through the weekend’s action.  Non-bettors always seem shocked when I talk about betting (and beating) the preseason.  How can you bet on exhibition games?  I don’t even know the guys on the field in the second half.  Boy, you really must be a degenerate gambler if you’re betting on NFL Preseason.

That couldn’t be further from the truth.  A sharp bettor’s mantra is fairly simple and nearly universal: Bet when you have an edge.  Pass when you don’t.  That holds for regular season NFL and it holds for preseason NFL as well.  And there are no shortage of edges to find when it comes to betting August football. 

In this two part column, I’ll illustrate the strategies that wiseguys use to attack preseason football.  In Part 1 (below), I’ll outline the basic market forces that create preseason pointspreads and show Preseason Handicapping 101 methods to beat those pointspreads.  In Part 2 next week, I’ll take a Deep Dive into some Advanced Betting Strategies for Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Las Vegas sportsbooks look to get in on the Olympic betting action

08.03.2016     09:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
For the first time since 2000, Las Vegas sportsbooks will be offering betting lines on various Olympic events.


“Any event that receives a lot of attention from the media, there’s a good chance that we could post it,” he says. “Whether it’s popular because of controversy or a great story and or an American competing for a gold medal.”

“We expect it to be very minimal,” he says. Also, he doesn’t expect to take any bets on rowing. In fact, despite the diversity of sport in the Olympics, Kornegay is certain that basketball, one of the boring old big four, will draw the majority of betting action this summer. “It won’t even be close,” he says.






Tags: Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the NFC East

07.25.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve previewed seven of the eight NFL divisions already, which leaves one last division to dissect before the start of training camps this week – the NFC East.  After this column, I’ll be taking a short break from writing Wiseguy Reports, taking some time to be fresh for the start of football season.  My next report – all about beating preseason NFL – will come in mid- August.

Let’s start with the division favorite Dallas Cowboys who are lined at 9 wins.  Last year was an unmitigated disaster for Jerry Jones’ squad and their supporters in the betting markets: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS.  The Cowboys top heavy roster was besieged with key injuries, most notably at quarterback and their defense was an abject disaster.  The Cowboys finished dead last in the NFL with a -22 turnover margin in large part because their defense notched only 11 takeaways all year.  To put that number in perspective, 24 of the 32 NFL teams recorded 21 takeaways or more.

Jason Garrett is 7-22 ATS as a home favorite in his first five years as the Cowboys head coach; a consistent track record of failure.  Read more



Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys New York Giants Philadelphia Eagles Washington Redskins Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 27, 2016 05:02 PM.