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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL teams starting to change their stripes

11.23.2015     11:41 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
It’s Week 12 already. Thanksgiving is upon us, with the holiday season right behind it.  All the NFL Bye weeks are in the rear view mirror now, with every team still having exactly six games remaining in the regular season.  We’re seeing numerous ‘morphs’ around the league; teams that have changed their stripes rather dramatically over the course of the last month. 

Some of those morphs are duly noted by the betting markets.  For example, the 3-7 Cowboys with a healthy Tony Romo are favored over the 10-0 Panthers on Thanksgiving Day, with the betting markets reacting to the Cowboys positive showing with Tony Romo back behind center this past Sunday.  The markets certainly aren’t sleeping on Dallas right now!

But what about the Lions, winners of two straight since their woeful 1-7 start?  Or the Falcons, now just 1-4 in their last five games; struggling on both sides of the football?  The Jets aren’t the same team now that they were a month ago, especially if the injuries to shutdown corner Darrelle Revis and Pro Bowl caliber center Nick Mangold don’t heal quickly.  Should we Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas

NFL Gambling: Las Vegas SuperContest Week 11 consensus picks

11.21.2015     08:14 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 11 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. DALLAS pk at Miami
2. NY JETS -2 at Houston
3. GREEN BAY +1 at Minnesota
4. CINCINNATI +5 at Arizona
5. MINNESOTA -1 vs. Green Bay

Least picked Sunday side: Houston +2 vs. NY Jets.

Tags: NFL

Las Vegas sportsbooks withstand Holm-Rousey upset thanks to NFL underdogs

11.16.2015     02:35 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
According to reports it was a wild weekend for Las Vegas sportsbooks with Holly Holm knocking out Ronda Rousey and nearly every NFL underdog covering on Sunday.

"At one point, we were approaching six digits on our loss," SuperBook assistant manager Ed Salmons said. "We had some late money on the favorite, which essentially made us a small loser on that fight. But with what we could have lost at one point, it felt like a big winner."

Tags: NFL Las Vegas

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Updating NFL Regular Season O/U Wins

11.16.2015     08:05 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I write a lot about NFL Win Totals and NFL Divisional Odds throughout the summer months; my preferred methodology for discussing the upcoming season.  As we approach Thanksgiving, with Week 10 in the books and the final bye weeks coming up this weekend, it’s a good opportunity to take a look at how those wagers are faring heading into the homestretch of the 2015 campaign.

The very first NFL season win bets cashed this past weekend.  Dallas fell to 2-7, ensuring that the Cowboys cannot go Over their 9.5 game win total.  Carolina improved to 9-0, cashing their Over 8.5 win total from last summer.  Seattle fell to 4-5.  Even if the Seahawks win all of their remaining games, they can do no better than push their 11 game win total. 

It’s a similar story with Baltimore, sitting at 2-7 now, with a win total of 9 from last summer.  A 7-0 Ravens run to end the season would only produce a push for Over bettors. And while I write this column before Monday Night Football kicks off, the Bengals are in prime position to cash their Over 8.5 win total, 8-0 now and sitting as double digit favorites against the Texans.

A Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling: Las Vegas SuperContest Week 10 consensus picks

11.14.2015     11:07 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 8 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. TENNESSEE +5.5 vs. Carolina
2. OAKLAND -3 vs. Minnesota
3. JACKSONVILLE +5.5 at Baltimore
4. WASHINGTON pk vs. New Orleans
5. KANSAS CITY +6 at Denver

Least picked Sunday side: Cleveland +4.5 at Pittsburgh.

Tags: NFL

College Football Betting Preview: Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears

11.13.2015     07:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Oklahoma at Baylor
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener:
Baylor -5 O/U 78
CRIS Current: Baylor -2.5 O/U 76
Recommendation: Baylor

Baylor has a clear path to the four team college football playoff this January.  If the Bears can win their last four games, they’re in, plain and simple.  Of course with Oklahoma at home, then road trips to face TCU and Oklahoma State over the next three games, Baylor’s three toughest tests of the season are coming in back-to-back-to-back weeks.

For a good portion of the season, I had Baylor ranked among the top two or three teams in all of college football in my power ratings.  And I’ve got the Bears homefield edge ranked as high as any in the land, as clearly evidenced by their remarkable 19-4 ATS mark in Waco dating back to the start of the 2012 campaign.  It’s surely worth noting that this is the shortest pointspread that Baylor has had at home since 2012 – they haven’t been less than -7 at home against anybody over the last three seasons.

But two things have happened to make me lower my Baylor Read more

Tags: College Football Oklahoma Sooners Baylor Bears Big XII Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: The College Football Playoff circus has begun

11.09.2015     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
I haven’t had an appropriate opportunity to rant against the most corrupt organization in sports – the NCAA, making billions off the backs of student athletes without a lick of oversight – in quite some time.  But now that we’re in Playoff Committee time here in November, it’s time to call out the NCAA for this ridiculous atrocity, designed to do one thing and one thing only – make the NCAA more money, by driving up the hype factor of the college football playoff.  You know, the playoff that doesn’t begin until January?  You know, the playoff that has a constantly-hyped national TV show every week, designed to get fat checks from corporate sponsors?   Yeah, that college football playoff!

Can you imagine, even for a minute, if the NFL held a mid-season poll so that a group of high profile bureaucrats, administrators and big name celebrities (does Condoleezza Rice really know the in’s and out’s of college football) could vote on who the top teams were?  Of course you can’t imagine such a thing, because it’s a ludicrous concept.  If these polls never existed, there would be Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

Westgate Superbook nears completion

11.09.2015     07:13 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas' Westgate Superbook is still working on various renovations and upgrades including 220 feet worth of big screen TVs.

“It’s the biggest screen of this type you’ll see inside, anywhere,” Kornegay says, looking across the Superbook at a digital image of a rushing attempt by Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton. “This is part of the plan to not only have the biggest sports book in Las Vegas but the best.”

“This was the owner’s idea, right from the start,” Kornegay said. “During his first walk-through, he realized the book hadn’t been touched in a really long time.”

Tags: Las Vegas

Son of foreign dignitary welches on Las Vegas casino debt

11.03.2015     08:10 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Amazing that those who actually have money are often times the ones not willing to settle up on gambling debts. Take the son of France's foreign minister, Thomas Fabius. This dude rang up well over a million in debt as various Las Vegas casinos and wrote a bunch of bad checks to try to cover his losses. According to Clark County, if he shows his face on U.S. soil, he'll be arrested.

Tags: Las Vegas

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing bye-less College Football teams

11.02.2015     10:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Seventeen college football teams enter November without having had a single bye week since the start of the season and without a bye this coming week.  Those teams are Arizona, Ball State, Boston College, Colorado, UConn, Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, Miami-Ohio, Ole Miss, Nebraska, Penn State, Texas Tech, Western Kentucky, Wisconsin and Wyoming.  Two more teams, North Texas and UMass, haven’t had byes since Week 1; teams that started their seasons a week late, but haven’t had a break since.  Is there anything unique or different about these non-bye squads?  Read on to find out.

Five of the 17 teams listed above don’t have any bye weeks at all.  Florida International, Miami-Ohio, Hawaii (with their 13 game schedule!), Arizona and Colorado will finish the season without a break.  Note that none of those five are going to play in a conference championship game, and only two (Arizona and FIU) have any realistic shot to make a bowl game.  Bye-less teams don’t tend to be very successful.  Most importantly for our purposes, they also don’t tend to cover many pointspreads Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers Las Vegas


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