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June

18

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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers

06.12.2018     10:41 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas (Colon) at Los Anegels (Ferguson) -175 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

My clients and I have been cashing winners betting the Dodgers Over the total in recent days, and there’s little reason to expect a dramatically different result from LA’s hot lineup against Bartolo Colon tonight.

To say that the Dodgers bats are on fire right now would not be an overstatement. LA has scored 11, 12, 10, 5, 9, 8, 7, 3 and 7 runs in their last nine ballgames, cashing eight Overs in the process. Just about every power bat that Dave Roberts has at his disposal is crushing the ball. LA has hit three home runs or more seven times in nine June games while leading the majors (by far) with 26 dingers already this month.

That’s bad news for Bartolo Colon, who needed 97 pitches to labor through five innings of work in his last outing. Colon is extremely vulnerable to the home run ball, allowing 16 bombs in just 71.1 innings of work so far this season. Current Dodgers have hit .288 against him with five home runs in a decent sample size of 104 at bats. Behind Colon, the Rangers bullpen has already taken 11 losses this Read more



Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Los Angeles Dodgers Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Understanding the profile for the best and worst teams to bet on

05.21.2018     11:38 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Finding the perfect MLB "betting profile" can be tricky. The best teams who post impressive run differentials and a top-tier statistics are almost always well accounted for in the betting markets. It's tough to support these teams with traditional moneyline bets when they are routinely laying north of -200. On the flip side, the worst teams flatout struggle to win. A 65-win team needs to be priced, on average, +150 in order just to break even. Below we broke down the best and worst teams from a profits perspective over the last five seasons. To no surprise, the most common ingredient is under- and over-achievement based on preseason expectations. For example, Arizona was lined at 77.5 wins last season and won 93 games. Meanwhile, San Francisco undershot its win total by 24 games, hence it's historic -37.8 units. Another factor, is "luck." In 2016, Texas won 95 games but "should" have been at or near .500 based on its miniscule +0.2 run differential. The markets never caved on the Rangers' soft statistical profile; they were on average a -106 favorite. In fact, if you combined both 2015 and 2016, Texas went 188-141 +58.9 units. Their pythagorean W-L during that span was 165-159 Read more



Tags: MLB




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

05.02.2018     11:20 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Los Angeles (Ryu) at Arizona (Godley) -110 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Arizona

Throw out the starting pitchers for just a second. This price is just a tad insane in my mind regardless of the starting pitching matchup considering we have Arizona at 21-8 on the season including a lights out 11-3 home record here at Chase Field up against the LA Dodgers who are reeling having lost seven of their last eight games thanks to a combination of mediocre starting pitching, a declining bullpen and a lineup that simply hasn’t been consistent from game-to-game at the plate. Los Angeles is 12-17 on the season and just 5-9 on the road entering tonight’s game. I can’t even make a valid case that the Dodgers have a starting pitching advantage in this matchup tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu the lefty will take the mound for the Dodgers tonight and he has solid numbers overall but his best work has come at home. In three road starts, Ryu has a 4.11 ERA and hasn’t lasted beyond the 6th inning in any of those outings which brings a struggling and taxed Dodgers bullpen into play. The Dodgers have had six consecutive games with a starter failing Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Arizona Diamondbacks Ian Cameron




MLB Gambling: CG Technology posts Season Over/Under Win Totals

02.09.2018     08:55 AM     Printer Friendly
Earlier this week, Las Vegas' CG Technology posted 2018 MLB Season Over/Under Win totals. Below is a handy chart of their numbers, last year's wins, and the difference. Biggest projected "gainers" include: San Francisco (+17.5), New York Mets (+10.5) Philadelphia (+8.5) and Toronto (+5.5). Biggest "decliners" include: Miami (-12.5), Los Angeles Dodgers (-8.5), Cleveland (-8.5), Arizona (-6.5) and Washington (-5.5).

2018 MLB Season Over/Under Wins - CG Technology
Team
2017 Wins
2018 O/U Wins
Difference
Arizona
93
86.5
-6.5
Atlanta
72
73.5
+1.5
Baltimore
75
77.5
+2.5
Boston
93
91.5
-1.5
Chicago Cubs
92
93.5
+1.5
Chicago White Sox
67
68.5
+1.5
Cincinnati
68
71.5
+3.5
Cleveland
102
93.5
-8.5
Colorado
87
82.5
-4.5
Detroit
64
68.5
+4.5
Houston
101
96.5
-4.5
Kansas City
80
76.5
-3.5
LA Angels
80
84.5
+4.5
LA Dodgers
104
95.5
-8.5
Miami
77
64.5
-12.5
Milwaukee
86
81.5
-4.5
Minnesota
85
82.5
-2.5
NY Mets
70
80.5
+10.5
NY Yankees
91
93.5
+2.5
Oakland
75
74.5
-0.5
Philadelphia
66
74.5
+8.5
Pittsburgh
75
76.5
+1.5
San Diego
71
69.5
+1.5
San Francisco
64
81.5
+17.5
Seattle
78
81.5
+3.5
St. Louis
83
84.5
+1.5
Tampa Bay
80
76.5
-3.5
Texas
78
78.5
+0.5
Toronto
76
81.5
+5.5
Washington
97
91.5
-5.5


 




Tags: MLB Las Vegas




MLB World Series Handicapping: Betting public prefers underdog Astros and over for tonight's Game 7

11.01.2017     09:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Game 7 of the World Series goes tonight with the Los Angeles Dodgers (Darvish) a -155 home favorite to the Houston Astros (McCullers). Interestingly, Pinnacle opened -110 last night and it peaked at -168 before settling to the current price of -155. According to Sports Options, 58% of "public" bettors are on the Astros while 67% prefer over 7.5. From 1982 to 2011, home teams won nine straight World Series Game 7's. The last two --- San Francisco in 2014 and the Chicago Cubs in 2016 --- went to the road team. 




Tags: MLB Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers




MLB World Series Handicapping: Warm temps expected for Game 1

10.24.2017     09:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The average temperature in Los Angeles this time of year is around 77 degrees. Today's Game 1 of the World Series is expected to be a tad warmer. Current weather reports are saying a high of 100 with gametime temps of 97 and a slight breeze out to right center. With the unpublished but obvious change to baseballs this season, both Dallas Keuchel (21.1%) and Clayton Kershaw (15.9%) allowed career-high FB-to-HR rates. Kershaw hadn't allowed more than 16 home runs in a season but allowed 23 despite throwing "only" 175 IP. Totals at Dodger Stadium went "under" at a 55% clip but only eight games were lined at 7 or below and five of those eight went "over."

 




Tags: MLB Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers




MLB Gambling News: Dodgers just lost -20 units in less than two weeks

09.08.2017     10:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you've been betting the Los Angeles Dodgers all season, don't fret, you're still up a healthy +15 units. But of late, you've gotten your balls kick in. The Dodgers had the NL West wrapped up months ago and we knew at some point, their historic production would cool off -- mostly likely the last week or two of the regular season when starters routinely rest. But LA's regression has come early in the form of a 1-12 slide. And when you're on average a -185 favorite, you can lose a lot of money in a hurry. In fact, during LA's return-to-earth moment, they've managed to drop just over -20 units including last night as -310 favorites. We'll see if the bleeding stops tonight as LA is a -200 home favorite vs. Colorado.




Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers




MLB Gambling: There will come a time when fading the Dodgers and Astros will yield profits

07.20.2017     09:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros are pretty good. And barring a historical collapse, they will win their respective divisions. They've also made a ton of money for their backers despite rising price tags. The Dodgers are up nearly +24 units with an average moneyline price of -179. The Astros not far behind at +18.7 units with an average moneyline price of -142. Not only are both teams winning games, but they are doing it in dominant fashion. Check out the current run differential for both teams compared to the leaders of past seasons. Unsustainable? Perhaps. But you can literally bet that come the last few weeks of the season, there's money to be made fading both squads.

Year - Run Differential
2017 - Dodgers +1.9
2017 - Astros +1.7

2016 - Cubs +1.6
2016 - Red Sox +1.1

2015 - Blue Jays +1.4
2015 - Cardinals +0.8

2014 - A's +1.0
2014 - Angels +0.9

2013 - Cardinals +1.2
2013 - Red Sox +1.2

2012 - Nationals +0.8
2012 - Yankees +0.8




Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Houston Astros




MLB Handicapping: Dodgers and Kershaw a -300 road favorite

07.18.2017     07:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tonight is likely to mark the 20th time in his career Clayton Kershaw will go off as a -300 or more favorite. His track record under those parameters is pretty strong as the Dodgers won 16 of the 19 games (+6.8 units). The run-line during that span is slightly better as +8.5 units. Because of the high price tag, bettors can get as much as +160 on the White Sox at +1.5 runs. Since 2014, MLB favorites of -300 or more have won 22 of 26 games (84.6%), good for over +9 units of profit. Kershaw was on the hill for 15 of those 26 contests. This will however mark only the second time Kershaw has been priced -300 or higher on the road. 

 




Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Chicago White Sox




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Indians

06.14.2017     08:27 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Los Angeles (McCarthy) +140 at Cleveland (Kluber) O/U 8
Recommendation: Los Angeles

The Cleveland Indians host the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight at Progressive Field. Corey Kluber takes the hill for the Tribe; his ninth start of the year and third since being activated from the DL. Last time out, Kluber went six innings and allowed three runs on seven hits with eight strikeouts against the White Sox. It was a very favorable matchup and the second time this season Kluber rolled through Chicago's lineup. In fact, if you eliminate Kluber's two outings against the White Sox, his ERA is an alarming 5.50 over seven starts.

Brandon McCarthy doesn't always get the respect he deserves because he's so injury prone. But when healthy, his stuff grades out as well above average. Note that his average exit velocity against, according to Statcast, is 84.4 mph. That ranks seventh-best out of 146 starters with at least 100 balls put in play. McCarthy has been throwing a cutter at a much higher rate this year which has significantly helped his ability to tame left-handed bats.

Cleveland is one of the most over-priced teams in Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Cleveland Indians Drew Martin



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"Los Angeles Dodgers'"

June

14


 
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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jun 18, 2018 02:20 PM.