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September

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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

08.27.2013     10:57 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati (Latos) -120 at St. Louis (Kelly) O/U 8
Recommendation: Over


My clients and I cashed a winner with the Reds – Cardinals Over last night; an 8-6 Slugfest.  And there’s no reason to expect a dramatically different result today.  Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities:

“We’ve got excellent weather conditions for a Slugfest – hazy, hot and humid with the wind blowing out.  We’ve got a series history that has seen the winning team score eight runs or more in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, every one of them cashing an Over ticket.  We’ve got a pair of bullpens that have both struggled against the opposing lineup this year.  And we’ve got two capable offenses.  The Cards have scored six or more runs in six of their last nine.  Cinci has cashed only two Unders in their last nine games while Read more


Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Breaking From the Gate...After the Break...

07.22.2013     08:02 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It can be tempting to overreact to stuff that happens when Major League Baseball resumes after the All-Star Break. Fans and analysts are playing extra close attention since they spent a few days thinking about the pennant races and how various teams may care…or not care about the rest of the season. But, the tone is often set for what follows by that first weekend. We won’t overreact today…but we’ll take a quick look at how all 30 offenses performed this past weekend using our “four-max” approach.

If you’re new to the blog, that’s a methodology that:

*Only counts scoring in the first five innings

*Stops counting once a team has reached FOUR runs

We do that to reward consistent scoring rather than the occasional explosion that can come if the opposing starting pitcher just doesn’t have anything that day…nor the lousy long relievers that replaced him. This started as an effort to gain context for Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




MLB Gambling Notes: Cincinnati Reds Still Struggling vs. Quality Teams

06.27.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Cincinnati Reds just got swept in a quick two-game series in Oakland, losing by a combined score of 12-3. That continues a trend we’ve been discussing on and off this season. The Reds have played very poorly (for a contender) against teams at .500 or better, while absolutely annihilating teams who are below .500.

Let’s run the numbers for the Reds and the other NL Central contenders for some context…

Records vs. .500 or Better

Pittsburgh 18-14

St. Louis 18-15

Cincinnati 15-26

Pittsburgh and St. Louis at least belong in the SuperLeague, even if they’re not dominating within the “best vs. best” matchups. The Reds are showing very poorly in comparison.

Records vs. Under .500

Cincinnati 30-8

St. Louis 30-15

Pittsburgh 30-16

This is why the Reds are in the divisional (and Wildcard) race. They’re doing a great job of taking Read more


Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Stat Intelligence




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins

05.16.2013     10:03 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati (Latos) -155 at Miami (Fernandez) O/U 7
Recommendation: Under


Sometimes you have to roll with plays that look simplistic and this game shapes up as one of those. Starting pitching figures to dominate here as the Mat Latos takes on young gem Jose Fernandez. Despite the fact that Latos’ history against Miami shows an 0-3 record, he had tremendous success earlier this season when he threw seven strong innings and allowed only one earned run and posting a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That game was in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark so look for Latos to be just as effective tonight inside spacious Marlins Park. Miami’s offense continued its abysmal season last night getting shutout by the Reds 4-0 and they now own an MLB-worst 110 runs scored, .224 batting average, .322 slugging percentage, .224 OBP, and .608 OPS. While Fernandez certainly faces the superior lineup, he’s been brilliant over his last couple starts. He’s pitched a combined 13 Read more


Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Miami Marlins Rob Veno




MLB Handicapping: Red hot Mat Latos returns to San Diego

07.05.2012     05:37 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati (Latos) -135 at San Diego (Volquez) O/U 6.5

Is Mat Latos finally getting it? It appears so after back-to-back 1-run complete games in which Latos allowed just six hits and struck out 20. Tonight he returns to his old stomping ground as a medium-sized road favorite.


"I think the main thing is is we're exactly on the same page as far as what we want to do," Hanigan said. "We're really getting into a good tempo. I think we trust each other. I think we know what our plan is. There's no guessing, there's no indecision.

"And he's attacking. He's getting into good counts. When he's not in good counts, he doesn't let it get away from him -- not a lot 2-0s, 3-1s. He's always in the count. He's got a 94 mph fastball. It makes his offs-peed stuff that much tougher."

"His slider Read more



Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds San Diego Padres




MLB Betting Notes: Latos felt Indians knew what was coming

06.25.2012     11:54 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati's Mat Latos hinted that the Cleveland Indians where stealing signs during last week's game. The Indians pounded Latos for three homers and seven runs in four innings. Two of the long balls came with a runner on second base. Note that Cleveland's lineup was nearly all lefty and lefties have given Latos a ton of problems this season (.319 BAA, .903 OPS).


"I was a little up in the zone. I thought I made some good pitches that they spit on with a runner on second base," said Latos (via MLB.com), after giving up seven runs on eight hits in just four innings on Monday. "I suppose it was kind of ironic. We changed up the signs, for the last hitter unfortunately. The outcomes changed when we changed up the signs today."








Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds




MLB Betting Free Play: Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds

06.13.2012     08:11 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland (Lowe) at Cincinnati (Latos) -140 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over


It is very hard to trust Cincinnati's Mat Latos at home against an American League lineup. Latos' transition from the weak-hitting, pitcher-friendly National League West has not been a smooth one. His fly ball ways (126-86 ratio) and tendency to challenge hitters up in the zone have resulted in a 4.85 ERA including 11 home runs allowed in 43.2 innings at Great American Ball Park. He's also had a tough time with lefties – something Cleveland has a lot of – with a .962 OPS. Derek Lowe has returned to earth with two of his last three starts being of disastrous variety. His groundball ways are a good thing to have in this ball park but with only 24 strikeouts in 72.2 innings, a lot of balls will be put in play tonight and any mistakes will be magnified due to the short porch in right field. Note that in four career starts at the GAP, Lowe's ERA is 5.09. Total certainly reflective of the mediocrity on Read more


Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Cincinnati Reds Andrew Lange




MLB Betting Notes: Move to Cincinnati has not been kind to Mat Latos

06.04.2012     11:02 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
FanGraphs tries to explain Cincinnati starter Mat Latos' problems (4.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). One theory is the introduction of a cutter – a very popular pitch these days that not everyone has success with. Not shy about challenging hitters up in the zone, Latos has also struggled with the home run ball having allowed 12 on the season including 10 at tiny Great American Ball Park.


The most troubling aspect of Latos’ struggles is that only one of his pitches has been above-average this season according to pitch type values. In previous years, Latos has been able to rely on his fastball, slider and changeup. This season, only his fastball has a positive pitch value. His slider, which has typically been his most effective pitch, is getting knocked around quite a bit. It’s gone from being rated as one of the best sliders in the league last season (10.5 pitch value) to one of the worst this year (-2.7).






Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds




Baseball Betting News: Verducci Effect released for 2012 season

01.19.2012     11:58 AM     Printer Friendly
Still a few months until the baseball season but Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci released his "Verducci Effect" qualifiers for 2012 (see chart graphic below). Deadspin countered with an article debunking the theory. From a betting perspective, last year's arms produced mixed results.

Pitcher (Units Won/Lost)
Madison Bumgarner -0.85
Alex Sanabia -2.00
Mat Latos -5.90
Brandon Beachy -8.20
Phil Hughes +3.05
Brett Cecil -8.45
Gio Gonzalez -0.20
Dillon Gee +8.40
Travis Wood -5.90
Ivan Nova +7.80

copy_verducci.JPG

 






Tags: MLB




MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at San Diego Padres

08.17.2011     07:41 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Mets (Gee) at San Diego (Latos) -145 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: San Diego


The Mets and Padres finish their three-game set today in the sunshine of Petco Park.  San Diego starter Mat Latos is very quietly pitching his best baseball of the season.  Over his last three starts he’s allowed a total of just five earned runs.  In addition, the strikeouts and command are there, with an 18-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Keep in mind Latos fought a sore shoulder to start the campaign, which seemed to sap some of his effectiveness. Against a weakened Mets lineup sans Jose Reyes and Daniel Murphy, Latos should boast another strong outing today.  Meanwhile, Dillon Gee will start for the Mets.  Gee doesn’t have near the sizzling stuff of Latos.  He sports a healthy 10-4 record but the youngster could be wearing down after allowing 15 runs, five home runs and a 15-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last four starts.  With San Diego’s lineup hitting as well as Read more


Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Mat Latos New York Mets Dillon Gee Erin Rynning



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