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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Chicago White Sox at Oakland A's

04.07.2016     08:28 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Chicago (Latos) at Oakland (Graveman) -115 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

At this point, Mat Latos can only be considered a lower-tier American League starter. His velocity has been in steady decline the last two seasons and during the spring, reports suggest that he's not in particularly good form. It's going to be a struggle for Latos to get outs on the consistent basis in the American League. If Oakland's Kendall Graveman can stay healthy, he's not a bad fit for the West Coast. He doesn't miss a lot of bats (5.99 K-rate last season) but has shown flashes of being a solid ground ball pitcher. I do have my concerns about today's start as a number of A's players have recently been dealing with a flu bug including Graveman who lost 12 lbs. There wasn't much offense in last night's game with Oakland winning 2-1 as Sonny Gray and Carlos Rodon -- two premium arms -- keep most hitters in check. But in watching the game, there were a lot of line drives and well hit balls that were tracked down for outs. You can expect more of the same today with two pitch-to-contact starters. Game time temps expected to be around 70 degrees with 10 mph winds out to left Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Oakland A's Andrew Lange

Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Chicago White Sox

03.04.2016     10:22 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange


Chicago White Sox
2015 W-L:
2015 O/U: 76-79-7
2015 Profits:  -12.7 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate): 80.5
2016 AL Central Odds (Westgate): 5/1
Projected Starting Rotation:  Chris Sale, Jose Quintana,  John Danks, Carlos Rodon, Mat Latos
Key Departures:  Alexi Ramirez, Tyler Flowers, Jeff Samardzija, Gordon Beckham
Key Additions:  Jimmy Rollins, Todd Frazior, Dioner Naavarro

Handicapper's Take: "The White Sox will try to hit and pitch their way into contention in the up-for-grabs AL Central. It's a philosophy that obviously backfired last season as the team finished dead last in the AL in runs scored and was middle-of-the-road on the mound. Defensively, this team grades out well below league average particularly in the outfield with Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, and Avisail Garcia all with limited range. Newly acquired third baseman Frazier is the team's only "plus" defender. The possibility of Jimmy Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates

08.08.2015     07:40 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Los Angeles (Latos) at Pittsburgh (Liriano) -125 O/U 7
Recommendation: Under

Ever since returning from an alleged knee injury, we've witnessed a completely different Mat Latos as he sports a 2.79 ERA and .196 BAA over eight starts. It's all ted to a rather large spike in velocity (cortisone shot?) which remains at a higher level than prior to his trip to the DL. Latos is typically pretty tough on the right-handed bat which is a decent fit against this Pirates lineup so I expect him to throw well this afternoon. Francisco Liriano has been one of the most consistently effective pitchers in baseball having allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but three outings this season. Even more impressive is the nine starts he allowed either zero or one run. Liriano has been tough on everyone but particularly the left-handed bat with a .184 BAA against this season. That's bad news for a Dodgers lineup that features lefties Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier and Joc Pederson. And LA's top OPS man, Justin Turner (.950) remains on the DL until next week. Wind or temps not expected to play a part in what sets up for a good old fashion pitchers’ duel. We'll look Read more

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Pittsburgh Pirates OTTO Sports

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: National League Preview

04.13.2015     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in this space, I wrote a team-by-team overview of the 15 American League squads.  This week, I’ll shift my focus to the National League, breaking down each team from a Las Vegas perspective.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order, by division.

A week ago, the Atlanta Braves were viewed as likely bottom feeders following a massive offseason rebuild that resulted in only six players from opening day last year returning on opening day in 2015; lined in the same range as teams like Arizona, Colorado and Minnesota.  One week later and the market view of Atlanta has changed at least somewhat thanks to a 5-1 record with the best run differential in the NL.  Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller and Alex Wood all hav top-of-the-rotation stuff, but it’s hard to picture this anemic lineup continuing to deliver steady run support.

The Miami Marlins hung around in the wild card race into the dog days of August last year before Giancarlo Stanton’s Read more

Tags: MLB Teddy Covers

Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Miami Marlins

03.10.2015     08:45 AM     Printer Friendly

The Washington Nationals are heavy favorites to with the NL East but the Miami Marlins are looking to win now and have the talent to contend for a Wild Card berth.

Miami Marlins
2014 W-L:
2014 O/U: 83-68-11
2014 Profits: -2.0
2015 O/U Wins: 81.5
2015 NL East Odds: +600
Projected Starting Rotation: Mat Latos, Henderson Alvarez, Jarred Cosart, Dan Haren, Tom Koehler
Key Departures: Casey McGehee, Nathan Eovaldi
Key Additions: Mat Latos, Martin Prado, Dee Gordon, Jarred Cosart

Handicapper’s Take: “Differing opinions on this squad amongst those who cover MLB as Miami appear to be in “all in” mode this season. The huge contract that locked up the game’s top power hitter Giancarlo Stanton along with the offseason moves which brought in 2B Dee Gordon, 1B Mike Morse, 3B Martin Prado, and RH starter Mat Latos, have raised the expectations for this club. There is now a legitimate blend of speed, power and Read more

Tags: MLB Miami Marlins Rob Veno

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

08.27.2013     10:57 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Cincinnati (Latos) -120 at St. Louis (Kelly) O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

My clients and I cashed a winner with the Reds – Cardinals Over last night; an 8-6 Slugfest.  And there’s no reason to expect a dramatically different result today.  Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities:

“We’ve got excellent weather conditions for a Slugfest – hazy, hot and humid with the wind blowing out.  We’ve got a series history that has seen the winning team score eight runs or more in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, every one of them cashing an Over ticket.  We’ve got a pair of bullpens that have both struggled against the opposing lineup this year.  And we’ve got two capable offenses.  The Cards have scored six or more runs in six of their last nine.  Cinci has cashed only two Unders in their last nine games while Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapping: Breaking From the Gate...After the Break...

07.22.2013     08:02 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It can be tempting to overreact to stuff that happens when Major League Baseball resumes after the All-Star Break. Fans and analysts are playing extra close attention since they spent a few days thinking about the pennant races and how various teams may care…or not care about the rest of the season. But, the tone is often set for what follows by that first weekend. We won’t overreact today…but we’ll take a quick look at how all 30 offenses performed this past weekend using our “four-max” approach.

If you’re new to the blog, that’s a methodology that:

*Only counts scoring in the first five innings

*Stops counting once a team has reached FOUR runs

We do that to reward consistent scoring rather than the occasional explosion that can come if the opposing starting pitcher just doesn’t have anything that day…nor the lousy long relievers that replaced him. This started as an effort to gain context for Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Gambling Notes: Cincinnati Reds Still Struggling vs. Quality Teams

06.27.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Cincinnati Reds just got swept in a quick two-game series in Oakland, losing by a combined score of 12-3. That continues a trend we’ve been discussing on and off this season. The Reds have played very poorly (for a contender) against teams at .500 or better, while absolutely annihilating teams who are below .500.

Let’s run the numbers for the Reds and the other NL Central contenders for some context…

Records vs. .500 or Better

Pittsburgh 18-14

St. Louis 18-15

Cincinnati 15-26

Pittsburgh and St. Louis at least belong in the SuperLeague, even if they’re not dominating within the “best vs. best” matchups. The Reds are showing very poorly in comparison.

Records vs. Under .500

Cincinnati 30-8

St. Louis 30-15

Pittsburgh 30-16

This is why the Reds are in the divisional (and Wildcard) race. They’re doing a great job of taking Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Stat Intelligence

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins

05.16.2013     10:03 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Cincinnati (Latos) -155 at Miami (Fernandez) O/U 7
Recommendation: Under

Sometimes you have to roll with plays that look simplistic and this game shapes up as one of those. Starting pitching figures to dominate here as the Mat Latos takes on young gem Jose Fernandez. Despite the fact that Latos’ history against Miami shows an 0-3 record, he had tremendous success earlier this season when he threw seven strong innings and allowed only one earned run and posting a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That game was in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark so look for Latos to be just as effective tonight inside spacious Marlins Park. Miami’s offense continued its abysmal season last night getting shutout by the Reds 4-0 and they now own an MLB-worst 110 runs scored, .224 batting average, .322 slugging percentage, .224 OBP, and .608 OPS. While Fernandez certainly faces the superior lineup, he’s been brilliant over his last couple starts. He’s pitched a combined 13 Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Miami Marlins Rob Veno

MLB Handicapping: Red hot Mat Latos returns to San Diego

07.05.2012     05:37 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Cincinnati (Latos) -135 at San Diego (Volquez) O/U 6.5

Is Mat Latos finally getting it? It appears so after back-to-back 1-run complete games in which Latos allowed just six hits and struck out 20. Tonight he returns to his old stomping ground as a medium-sized road favorite.

"I think the main thing is is we're exactly on the same page as far as what we want to do," Hanigan said. "We're really getting into a good tempo. I think we trust each other. I think we know what our plan is. There's no guessing, there's no indecision.

"And he's attacking. He's getting into good counts. When he's not in good counts, he doesn't let it get away from him -- not a lot 2-0s, 3-1s. He's always in the count. He's got a 94 mph fastball. It makes his offs-peed stuff that much tougher."

"His slider

Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds San Diego Padres


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