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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins
05.16.2013 10:03 AM
Rob Veno
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno
Cincinnati
(Latos) -155 at
Miami
(Fernandez) O/U 7
Recommendation: Under
Sometimes you have to roll with plays that look simplistic and this game shapes up as one of those. Starting pitching figures to dominate here as the Mat Latos takes on young gem Jose Fernandez. Despite the fact that Latos’ history against Miami shows an 0-3 record, he had tremendous success earlier this season when he threw seven strong innings and allowed only one earned run and posting a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That game was in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark so look for Latos to be just as effective tonight inside spacious Marlins Park. Miami’s offense continued its abysmal season last night getting shutout by the Reds 4-0 and they now own an MLB-worst 110 runs scored, .224 batting average, .322 slugging percentage, .224 OBP, and .608 OPS. While Fernandez certainly faces the superior lineup, he’s been brilliant over his last couple starts. He’s pitched a combined 13
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Tags:
MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Miami Marlins
Rob Veno
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MLB Handicapping: Red hot Mat Latos returns to San Diego
07.05.2012 05:37 AM
Printer Friendly
Cincinnati
(Latos) -135 at
San Diego
(Volquez) O/U 6.5
Is Mat Latos finally getting it? It appears so after
back-to-back 1-run complete games
in which Latos allowed just six hits and struck out 20. Tonight he returns to his old stomping ground as a medium-sized road favorite.
"I think the main thing is is we're exactly on the same page as far as what we want to do," Hanigan said. "We're really getting into a good tempo. I think we trust each other. I think we know what our plan is. There's no guessing, there's no indecision.
"And he's attacking. He's getting into good counts. When he's not in good counts, he doesn't let it get away from him -- not a lot 2-0s, 3-1s. He's always in the count. He's got a 94 mph fastball. It makes his offs-peed stuff that much tougher."
"His slider
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Tags:
MLB
Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres
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MLB Betting Notes: Latos felt Indians knew what was coming
06.25.2012 11:54 AM
Printer Friendly
Cincinnati's Mat Latos hinted that the Cleveland Indians where
stealing signs
during last week's game. The Indians pounded Latos for three homers and seven runs in four innings. Two of the long balls came with a runner on second base. Note that Cleveland's lineup was nearly all lefty and lefties have given Latos a ton of problems this season (.319 BAA, .903 OPS).
"I was a little up in the zone. I thought I made some good pitches that they spit on with a runner on second base," said Latos (via MLB.com), after giving up seven runs on eight hits in just four innings on Monday. "I suppose it was kind of ironic. We changed up the signs, for the last hitter unfortunately. The outcomes changed when we changed up the signs today."
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MLB Betting Free Play: Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds
06.13.2012 08:11 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cleveland
(Lowe) at
Cincinnati
(Latos) -140 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over
It is very hard to trust Cincinnati's Mat Latos at home against an American League lineup. Latos' transition from the weak-hitting, pitcher-friendly National League West has not been a smooth one. His fly ball ways (126-86 ratio) and tendency to challenge hitters up in the zone have resulted in a 4.85 ERA including 11 home runs allowed in 43.2 innings at Great American Ball Park. He's also had a tough time with lefties – something Cleveland has a lot of – with a .962 OPS. Derek Lowe has returned to earth with two of his last three starts being of disastrous variety. His groundball ways are a good thing to have in this ball park but with only 24 strikeouts in 72.2 innings, a lot of balls will be put in play tonight and any mistakes will be magnified due to the short porch in right field. Note that in four career starts at the GAP, Lowe's ERA is 5.09. Total certainly reflective of the mediocrity on
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Cleveland Indians
Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Lange
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MLB Betting Notes: Move to Cincinnati has not been kind to Mat Latos
06.04.2012 11:02 AM
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FanGraphs
tries to explain Cincinnati starter Mat Latos' problems (4.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). One theory is the introduction of a cutter – a very popular pitch these days that not everyone has success with. Not shy about challenging hitters up in the zone, Latos has also struggled with the home run ball having allowed 12 on the season including 10 at tiny Great American Ball Park.
The most troubling aspect of Latos’ struggles is that only one of his pitches has been above-average this season according to pitch type values. In previous years, Latos has been able to rely on his fastball, slider and changeup. This season, only his fastball has a positive pitch value. His slider, which has typically been his most effective pitch, is getting knocked around quite a bit. It’s gone from being rated as one of the best sliders in the league last season (10.5 pitch value) to one of the worst this year (-2.7).
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Baseball Betting News: Verducci Effect released for 2012 season
01.19.2012 11:58 AM
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Still a few months until the baseball season but Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci released his
"Verducci Effect"
qualifiers for 2012 (see chart graphic below). Deadspin countered with an article
debunking the theory
. From a betting perspective, last year's arms produced mixed results.
Pitcher (Units Won/Lost)
Madison Bumgarner -0.85
Alex Sanabia -2.00
Mat Latos -5.90
Brandon Beachy -8.20
Phil Hughes +3.05
Brett Cecil -8.45
Gio Gonzalez -0.20
Dillon Gee +8.40
Travis Wood -5.90
Ivan Nova +7.80
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at San Diego Padres
08.17.2011 07:41 AM
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NY Mets (Gee) at San Diego (Latos) -145 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: San Diego
The Mets and Padres finish their three-game set today in the sunshine of Petco Park. San Diego starter Mat Latos is very quietly pitching his best baseball of the season. Over his last three starts he’s allowed a total of just five earned runs. In addition, the strikeouts and command are there, with an 18-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Keep in mind Latos fought a sore shoulder to start the campaign, which seemed to sap some of his effectiveness. Against a weakened Mets lineup sans Jose Reyes and Daniel Murphy, Latos should boast another strong outing today. Meanwhile, Dillon Gee will start for the Mets. Gee doesn’t have near the sizzling stuff of Latos. He sports a healthy 10-4 record but the youngster could be wearing down after allowing 15 runs, five home runs and a 15-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last four starts. With San Diego’s lineup hitting as well as
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Erin Rynning
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MLB Betting Stock Watch: Latos looks to be in fine form
05.27.2011 07:16 AM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Buy Mat Latos
– Latos burst on the scene last year after starting 10 games for the Padres in 2009. The power right-hander was simply dominating much of the campaign with a 2.92 ERA including an amazing 10-1 stretch. His peripheral numbers were strong as well with 189 strikeouts to just 50 walks in 185 innings of work.
The workload however was a real issue and the Padres skipped his turn a few times in order to preserve his arm. But in the heat of a pennant race, the Padres needed high leverage innings from their ace and unfortunately, he faded down the stretch (1-5, 5.65 ERA in September and October). Questions lingered moving forward to 2011 on how Latos would respond to the hefty workload. Once spring training hit, it was clear he wasn’t responding well. Latos finally admitted he was having soreness in his shoulder and the Padres were forced to place him on disabled list. He returned in mid-April, but his 2010 form was still missing. His velocity was down, and the overall crispness of his
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MLB Handicapping: Buy Low on these starting pitchers
05.11.2011 11:39 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
This young MLB season isn’t quite so young anymore. We’re six weeks into the campaign, and already, like every year, we’ve got a bevy of misleading statistics to work with. My goal in this article is to identify a handful of starting pitchers that are already mispriced.
As I’ve written before, handicapping is not about identifying good or bad teams – the standings do that. Many bettors, me included, tend to avoid making many wagers on the very best or against the very worst ballclubs – those teams tend to be priced appropriately. Instead, beating the modern betting marketplace is about identifying value squads (and in MLB, identifying value pitchers) – both good and bad – that are mispriced in the short to medium term.
Last year, the three most profitable MLB teams to support were the San Diego Padres, the Cincinnati Reds and the Toronto Blue Jays. Only one of the three made the playoffs and none were considered elite teams at any point in the campaign.
On
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Erik Bedard
Madison Bumgarner
Daniel Hudson
Jordan Zimmermann
Teddy Covers
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MLB Betting Free Play: San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
05.09.2011 09:21 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
San Diego (Latos) at Milwaukee (Greinke) -135 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Milwaukee
It will probably take another three or four starts before Milwaukee’s Zach Greinke is at full strength following a rib injury that kept him sidelined for a month. But there are a couple indicators that suggest he’ll be good to go tonight against San Diego. Greinke lasted only four innings and allowed four earned runs in his debut but a couple of errors and a prolonged first inning (32 pitches) masked what in reality wasn’t that bad of an outing. He threw only 54 pitches his next four innings and finished the day with six strikeouts.
"For the most part I pitched decent," said Greinke, who left after 86 pitches. "I had a couple of really bad at-bats [in the fourth] and in the end it made it look worse."
Tonight mark’s his
home debut
and the Brewers are
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Milwaukee Brewers
Zach Greinke
San Diego Padres
Mat Latos
Andrew Lange
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