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Teddy Covers' NFL Top 5 Hidden Pointspread Plays of the Year
12.31.2012 08:14 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I made my end of the year
Top 7 Pointspread Plays of the Year for the NFL
; a look back at some of the wackiest and nerve-wracking ATS outcomes, regardless of which side you had. This week, I’m taking something of a different tack, writing about my Top 5 Hidden Pointspread Plays of the Year. These plays had massive repercussions – repercussions that were felt by the betting markets for weeks, even months after the games were played. What’s a “hidden” pointspread play? Read on to find out!
No. 5 – Week 12, Miami sack vs. Seattle
The Seahawks led throughout the second half, but a late Dolphins TD had the game tied 21-21 at the two minute warning. Seattle was driving, facing a first and ten at the Dolphins 40 yard line, needing only a few more yards to put them in position for a game winning field goal try from kicker Stephen Hauschka. But they lost yardage on their first down running attempt, then lost yardage again on a quick pass behind the line of scrimmage on second
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NFL Handicapping: Bills and Dolphins play third game in 12 days
11.14.2012 01:44 PM
Printer Friendly
Miami
at
Buffalo
-2 O/U 45
Thursday night marks the
first time since 2008
the Buffalo Bills will host a primetime game. They unfortunately
aren't that giddy about it
considering it will mark the team's third contest in 12 days. Miami is in the same boat and doesn't have a strong track record of success playing in cold weather (it is expected to be in the mid-30s). However, last season, with gametime temps of 30 degrees and snow, the Dolphins waltzed into Ralph Wilson Stadium and came away with a 30-23 victory as 1-point chalk.
"I don't like it," Bills coach Chan Gailey said. "I think it's tough on the players. We have quite a few players that sometimes don't get back on the
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: AFC Contenders and Pretenders
11.12.2012 11:47 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
November is the time in the NFL where we separate contenders from pretenders. Last week, I focused on the NFC; this week, I’ll turn to the AFC. Unfortunately, the Colts and Steelers didn’t play on Sunday, and the Texans’ Sunday Night game was played in weather conditions that affected the game (and the game plan) significantly. Who among the rest can challenge for AFC supremacy? Read on to find out.
Denver Broncos
- Another slow start for a West Coast team traveling East; certainly not unusual. Slow starts have been a consistent problem for Denver all year. We saw them fall behind by three scores when they faced Atlanta, Houston and San Diego – three of the tougher foes they've faced. But slow starts are about the only fault I can find with this team right now.
We already know how good Denver’s offense can be, and they score touchdowns : 22 TDs in 32 red zone possessions. The Broncos have an elite quarterback, a strong running game and playmaking WR's - they can trade points with anybody. This team's postseason future rests on the strength (or weakness) of their stop unit; a unit that has stepped up at times and
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New England Patriots
San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
Teddy Covers
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NFL Handicapper Free Play: Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
11.11.2012 07:09 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Tennessee
+6.5 at
Miami
O/U 44
Recommendation: Tennessee
The Dolphins haven’t exactly been beating up on quality foes. Their four wins this season have come against the Raiders, Bengals, Rams and Jets. Two of those four wins came by four points or less, not enough to cover this pointspread. In the two games where Miami has been favored, they’ve won by three and lost by three, failing to cover the number each time. The Dolphins have been outgained by nearly 550 yards over the last three weeks. And, long term, simply betting the underdog in every Dolphins game has produced a remarkable 36-13 ATS streak, including a 6-1 ATS run entering Sunday’s game.
If there’s one game all year that we can expect the Titans to show up for, it’s this one. Tennessee was thoroughly embarrassed and humiliated on their home field last Sunday; a game that was over by the end of the first quarter. Owner Bud Adams was not amused:
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Miami Dolphins
Teddy Covers
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NFL Handicapping: Tennessee Titans say Locker will start vs. Miami
11.08.2012 07:36 AM
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Tennessee
at
Miami
-6 O/U 44
The Tennessee Titans are planning on
starting quarterback Jake Locker
vs. Miami. He hasn't played in six weeks.
“He needs to be ready to play and play to the best of his ability,” quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains said. “We don’t have time for anybody to be rusty. That excuse isn’t available for anybody, including him. And he knows that. It’s part of the deal. And if you ask Jake, he doesn’t expect to be rusty. He’s worked his butt off to be ready.”
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NFL Betting News: Miami focused on run game vs. Tennesee
11.08.2012 06:51 AM
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Tennessee
at
Miami
-6 O/U 44
The Miami Dolphins plan to go after the Tennessee Titans via the
ground game
on Sunday. The Titans have the third worst rush defense in the league (141.6 ypg).
“It’s been inconsistent. At times, it’s very, very productive. At other times, not,” coach Joe Philbin said. “The biggest thing about the run game from [the Colts game], I thought there was some good things. I thought we made some progress. We got the ball to the edge better than we have all year. This type of game it was, (we) didn’t get enough rushing attempts.”
“When you do something well in this league people are going to do whatever they can to take it away from you, and certainly people have schemed up pretty well. Now
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Pre- and Post-Bye Week Teams
10.29.2012 11:45 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I wrote about the three strongest prevailing angles for the 2012 NFL season. Let me update the numbers from a week ago.
NFC Underdogs – any underdog in any game – have gone 37-12-2 ATS this season. But that angle has now suffered back-to-back losing weeks, looking like it’s come and gone as the market has adjusted to reflect the NFC’s dominance – just 3-5 ATS in Week 8 after a 2-3-1 ATS mark in Week 7.
Teams heading into the bye week are now 1-14 ATS, discounting the games where one pre-bye team faced off against another. The Jets were the only team to fall into this category on Sunday, with the 49ers pending on Monday Night. This trend is still very live; 0-3 ATS over the past two weeks.
And teams coming out of the bye are on a 9-5 ATS streak; again discounting the games where one post-bye team faced another. But that trend seems to e flat lining: 2-2 ATS in Week 7 followed by another 2-2 ATS performance in Week 8.
What’s really going on with these pre-bye or post-bye squads? For the second straight week, I focused my attention on five teams in one of these two roles.
Miami
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Atlanta Falcons
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Philadelphia Eagles
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College Football Gambling Preview: Tennessee Volunteers at Mississippi State Bulldogs
10.12.2012 07:39 AM
Alatex Sports
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Submitted by Alatex Sports
Tennessee
at
Mississippi State
Brent Crow's Recommendation:
Mississippi State
Saturday, 6 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Mississippi State -2.5 O/U 53
CRIS Current:
Mississippi State -3 O/U 57
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Mississippi State -4
Through five games, unbeaten Mississippi State has yet to be challenged but gets its biggest test of the season against Tennessee. The Bulldogs have beaten up on some weak teams this year; Kentucky, Auburn, South Alabama, Troy and Jackson State – none of which hold a candle to Tennessee offensively. MSU has forced 15 turnovers while committing just four, but that should be expected given the competition. They have been good but not great on offense, averaging just over 400 ypg despite playing two Sun Belt squads and FCS Jackson State.
The good news for Mississippi State is that Tennessee if far from a defensive juggernaut. The Vols’
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NFL Gambling Preview: Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens
10.11.2012 02:41 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Dallas
at
Baltimore
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Dallas
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Baltimore -4 O/U 45
CRIS Current:
Baltimore -3.5 O/U 44
We last saw the Cowboys getting embarrassed at home on Monday Night Football in a turnover filled debacle of a loss against Chicago. Tony Romo threw a career worst five interceptions in that ballgame; completely out of sync with big play receivers Dez Bryant, Kevin Ogletree and Miles Austin. DeMarco Murray gained only 24 yards on eleven carries and the Cowboys defense couldn’t stop Jay Cutler.
At 2-2, the Cowboys certainly haven’t quit on their coach or their season. Pro Bowl tight end Jason Witten: “This has to be a wake-up call for us…We're not going to quit. We're going to stay together. I believe we have the right people. Great leadership in Jason (Garrett). We'll get it turned around.” The Cowboys should be much healthier off
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College Football Gambling Preview: Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners
10.11.2012 02:25 PM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
Texas
vs.
Oklahoma
Ian Cameron's Recommendation:
Texas
Saturday, 9 am PT - ABC
CRIS Opener:
Oklahoma -3.5 O/U 63
CRIS Current:
Oklahoma -3.5 O/U 58.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Oklahoma -2.5
The Red River Rivalry gets renewed on Saturday and this time around, Texas has a good chance to snap their two-game losing streak. Two injuries for Texas you will want to keep an eye on are RB Malcolm Brown and LB Jordan Hicks. Both are listed as questionable at this time. Brown has 245 rushing yards on 40 carries this season and Hicks is the leading tackler on this Longhorns defense.
Texas comes into this game a little bit undervalued after last week’s home loss to West Virginia. The Longhorns have been forced to deal with two potent offenses the last two weeks with Oklahoma State and WVU and are certainly battle tested. Keep in mind the Sooners’ offensive line is still a concern.
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Ian Cameron
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