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College Football Gambling: Oregon State QB situation remains unknown

11.13.2012 07:14 AM Printer Friendly

California at Oregon State

Oregon State head coach Mike Riley has yet to commit to a quarterback for Saturday's matchup against Cal. Cody Vaz sprained his ankle in last week's loss to Stanford and according to Sports Options is doubtful. And Sean Mannion is still not fully healed from mid-season knee surgery.

As for Cal, Zach Maynard, who missed last week, remains doubtful. His back-up, Allan Bridgford, colpmeted 9-of-21 passes for 113 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT in last week's 59-17 loss to Oregon. The Golden Bears appear to be in towel-tossing mode failing to win or cover each of their last four games.

Tags: College Football Oregon State Beavers California Golden Bears PAC-12

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College Football Betting Update: Junior QB Vaz gets start for Oregon State

10.10.2012 07:07 AM Printer Friendly

UPDATE

Oregon State at- BYU -6 O/U 38

Oregon State will start junior quarterback Cody Vaz this weekend at BYU. Vaz has not played since 2010 though head coach Mike Riley gave him a vote of confidence (of course he did) and said the offense will not change. Prior to taking the game off the board, Pinnacle had BYU has a 2.5-point favorite. The Cougars are now -6.

“I’ve got a lot of faith in Cody,” Riley said. “I’ve always thought he was a good quarterback. The only unfortunate part is I haven’t played him enough. I think he’s a good player. We don’t have to change or do anything different.”

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College Football Betting Preview: Washington State Cougars at BYU Cougars

08.28.2012 06:47 AM Otto Sports Printer Friendly

Submitted by Otto Sports

Washington State at BYU
Marty Otto’s Recommendation: Washington State
Thursday, 7:15 PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: BYU -13.5 O/U 58.5
CRIS Current: BYU -13 O/U 62
Reb Veno's Power Rating: BYU -10.5

An early season ESPN game has caught my attention and I think the underdog could have some bite. Washington State travels to Provo to take on a BYU team that won 10 games a year ago. Those 10 wins marked the fifth time in seven prior seasons that the Cougars had posted double-digit wins under Bronco Mendenhall.

BYU obviously has a solid pedigree; they are well coached and boast a solid home field advantage having gone 27-4 straight up here since 2006. Whereas a bit of a quarterback controversy and identity crisis (are we a running team or throwing team?) popped up last year, 2012’s squad looks quite settled. Reports out of Provo suggest the offense looks as dangerous as it has in Read more

Tags: College Football Washington State Cougars PAC-12 BYU Cougars Marty Otto

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NCAAF Betting Notes: Arizona State favored by -18 off of big win over USC

09.29.2011 09:48 AM Printer Friendly

Oregon State at Arizona State -18 O/U

It didn't take but a month for the gap between Arizona State and Oregon State to become canyon-like. The Sun Devils snapped an 11-game losing streak against USC last week and find themselves in the top 25 for the first time since early 2008. The Beavers meanwhile fell flat to UCLA at home in an optimal spot. OSU is notorious for its slow starts but this doesn’t look like a typical Mike Riley outfit.

Just to put in perspective the massive change in opinion, last year, Oregon State was +18.5 at No. 3 Boise State, +13.5 at No. 7 Stanford and +16.5 vs. No. 1 Oregon. The Beavers were also a 3.5-point favorite over the Sun Devils in Corvallis and won 31-28.

Tough game to call with peak value on the underdog and Arizona State ripe for a major letdown. But those wishing to back Oregon State would be taking a leap of faith as this team has yet to show it can compete when asked to step up in Read more

Tags: College Football Arizona State Sun Devils Oregon State Beavers PAC-12

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NCAAF Pointspread Trends: Oregon State strong off of bye weeks

09.23.2011 09:17 AM Printer Friendly

UCLA at Oregon State -5.5 O/U 50.5

Oregon State head coach Mike Riley has a strong history (see below) of producing off of bye weeks. The Beavers are in a prototypical spot for a big effort as they play host to UCLA. Bettors who grabbed the early number of -2.5 or -3 are in a good spot but with the OSU now favored by -5.5, the value appears to be gone.

Oregon State off a bye week under Mike Riley 2003-10

Year	Opponent	Line	Score	OSU SU	OSU ATS
2010	vs. California	Oregon State -2.5	35-7	Win	Win
2010	vs. Louisville	Oregon State -20.5	35-28	Win	Loss
2009	at Oregon	Oregon State +9.5	33-37	Loss	Win
2009	at USC	Oregon State +21	36-42	Loss	Win
2008	vs. USC	Oregon State +24	27-21	Win	Win
2008	vs. Arizona State	Oregon State -14	27-25	Win	Loss
2007	at Oregon	Oregon State +1	38-31	Win	Win
2006	vs. Idaho	Oregon State -26	38-0	Win	Win
2005	at California	Oregon State +15	23-20	Win	Win
2004	at Washington	Oregon State -7.5	29-14	Win	Win
2003	vs. Washington	Oregon State -11.5	17-38	Loss	Loss
2003	vs. Stanford	Oregon State -14.5	43-3	Win	Win
Results				9-3 SU	9-3 ATS

Tags: College Football Oregon State Beavers UCLA Bruins PAC-12

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College Football Betting Notes: Quarterback situations for Week 2

09.06.2011 07:54 AM Rob Veno Printer Friendly

Submitted by Rob Veno

Quarterback news and notes following Week 1’s games.

Memphis announced freshman Taylor Reed will start Saturday's game at Arkansas State. Reed, a lefty, was 23-of-35, 149 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in last week's loss to Mississippi State.

Wake Forest head coach Jim Grobe expects quarterback Tanner Price (knee) to start Saturday against NC State.

North Texas' quarterback situation is somewhat up in the air after a dismal 41-16 loss to Florida International.

UCLA head coach Rick Neuheisel said Kevin Prince is Read more

Tags: College Football Memphis Tigers Wake Forest Demon Deacons Ole Miss Rebels Notre Dame Fighting Irish Minnesota Golden Gophers North Texas Mean Green Oregon State Beavers UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns UConn Huskies UCLA Bruins Rob Veno

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NCAAF Handicapping: Another slow start for Oregon State?

08.09.2011 08:01 AM Printer Friendly

Under Mike Riley, Oregon State has been notorious for slow starts and strong finishes (see chart below). That trend could continue as Riley has stated that this year's edition has a ton of unknowns. The Beavers open up with Sacramento State and then travel to Wisconsin. They have a bye week before opening PAC-12 play with UCLA at home, Arizona State on the road and Arizona at home.

“I’ve never had it like this,’’ said Riley. “There’s some mystery surrounding a lot of players.’’

“Every camp is important, but part of this one is just finding out where guys are,’’ said Riley, who is six wins away from becoming the winningest football coach in the program’s history.

Oregon State Betting Results Under Mike Riley 2003-10

Year	1st 4 Games SU	1st 4 Games ATS	Remainder SU	Remainder ATS
2010	2-2	2-1-1	3-5	4-4
2009	2-2	0-4	6-3	7-2
2008	2-2	2-2	7-2	7-2
2007	2-2	2-2	7-2	7-2
2006	2-2	1-2	8-2	6-4
2005	2-2	0-2-1	3-4	3-4
2004	1-3	1-3	6-2	7-1
2003	3-1	0-3	5-4	6-3
Results	16-16	8-18-2	45-24	47-22

Tags: College Football Oregon State Beavers PAC-12 Mike Riley

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NCAAF Betting Preview: Look for Oregon State to regain ATS prowess

08.04.2011 01:33 PM Teddy Covers Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

For the better part of the last decade, the Oregon State Beavers were the single easiest PAC-10 team to project. Every year, Mike Riley’s squad would start slow; suffering a bad loss or two in September against some very tough competition and the betting markets would overreact to those early season failures. Following that however the team would improve by leaps and bounds down the stretch and become a pointspread monster by November. This pattern was remarkably consistent – a losing ATS record in their first five games followed by a winning ATS mark in their last five games.

That pattern was finally broken last year, when the Beavers failed to reach a bowl game for the first time since 2005 – although Oregon State still finished at .500 ATS despite a run of failure (1-4 SU and ATS) to close out the season. Let’s not forget that this program has a grand total of one losing season against the pointspread Read more

Tags: College Football Oregon State Beavers PAC-12 Mike Riley Teddy Covers

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NCAAF Handicapping: Using the betting market to project success and failure

06.08.2011 12:33 PM Andrew Lange Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange

Today’s college football case study covers teams that failed or exceeded expectations and what type of results they had the following season from a betting perspective. I went back to 2008 and 2009 and took teams that finished two games or more below or above their regular season over/under wins number. I then took their against the spread record the following season – I was hoping to find a “buy low, sell high” scenario.

Here are the overall numbers…

Teams that finished -2 or below with their O/U wins in 2008 went 75-74-1 ATS in 2009

2008 College Football Underachievers

Team 2008	O/U	RS Wins	Diff	2009 ATS
Washington	6	0	-6	7-5
Arizona State	8.5	5	-3.5	6-5
Auburn	9	5	-3.5	6-7
Michigan	7.5	3	-3.5	5-7
Purdue	7	4	-3	6-5-1
Clemson	9.5	7	-2.5	9-5
Tennessee	7.5	5	-2.5	7-6
Illinois	7	5	-2	4-8
LSU	9	7	-2	5-8
South Florida	9	7	-2	6-6
UCLA	6	4	-2	7-6
Wisconsin	9	7	-2	7-6

Teams that finished +2 or above with their O/U wins in 2008 went 57-45 ATS in 2009

2008 College Football Overachievers

Team 2008	O/U	RS Wins	Diff	2009 ATS
Georgia Tech	5.5	9	4.5	8-5
Alabama	8	12	4	9-5
Penn State	8.5	11	2.5	7-6
Michigan State	7	9	2	4-7-1
Pittsburgh	7	9	2	8-4
Texas	9	11	2	5-8-1
Texas Tech	9	11	2	7-5
Boise State	10	12	2	9-5

Teams that “overachieved” were pegged to be overvalued while teams that “underachieved” would be undervalued. Unfortunately, the results were essentially the opposite of what I was expecting.

Teams that finished -2 or below with their O/U wins in 2009 Read more

Tags: College Football

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Oregon State head coach Mike Riley jokes of loss to Wazzu

11.15.2010 01:58 PM Printer Friendly

USC -3 at Oregon State

When you lose outright by 17 at home to Washington State, the only thing you can do is try to make light of the situation. Addressing his team following the embarrassing loss, Oregon State head coach Mike Riley reused one of the most famous football quotes on record...

“Playoffs?” he began in his best Jim Mora impersonation. “Don’t talk about playoffs. You kidding me — playoffs? I just hope we can win a game.”

The coaches and players shared a laugh, and it was back to business.

The Beavers need to try something to spark a turnaround. After back-to-back losses, they need to win two of their last three (vs. USC, at Stanford, vs. Oregon) to reach the postseason.

Tags: Oregon State Beavers Washington State Cougars USC Trojans PAC-10 Mike Riley College Football

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