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NBA Gambling: Bettors fairly even on Pacers-Heat Game 1 opinion
05.22.2013 02:03 PM
Printer Friendly
Here are the consensus bets for tonight’s Game 1 of Eastern Conference Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager. CRIS opened the game Miami -8.5 with a total of 183.5. The line dropped to -7.5 at a few shops (most notably Grande) before settling back at -8. Vegas residents can still get the Pacers +8.5 at Coasts. The total was bet down to 182 (181.5 at Pinnacle, 183 at South Point). Miami is -750 to win the series; Indiana +550.
Side
Miami -8 - 53.7%
Moneyline
Miami -425 - 51.3%
Total
Indiana-Miami OVER 182 - 59.8%
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NBA
Miami Heat
Indiana Pacers
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Sports Betting Podcast 5-22-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Teddy Covers
05.22.2013 10:23 AM
Printer Friendly
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Ian Cameron and Teddy Covers. Ian and Teddy broke down the entire MLB card while Teddy also talked Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Today's segments
Full Show
Ian Cameron - National League
Teddy Covers - American League and NBA
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory
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NBA
Ian Cameron
Teddy Covers
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NBA Handicapping: Statline Data for Indiana-Miami series
05.22.2013 08:11 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Here are the numbers for the Eastern Conference finals, using the data that’s helped us throughout the college and NBA postseasons. If you’re new to the blog, there are regular season numbers in:
*Two-Point Defense
*Rebounding Differential
*Turnover Differential
*Made Treys per Game
*Ranking in Pace
This helps paint a picture for how the games are likely to play out given the strengths, weaknesses, and preferences of each team. Conference seedings are in parenthesis…
(3) Indiana: 44% two-point defense, +5.0 rebounding, -1.6 TO’S, 6.9 treys, #25 full season pace
(1) Miami: 47% two-point defense, -1.5 rebounding, +1.7 TO’S, 8.7 treys, #23 full season pace
Indiana was fantastic inside the arc defensively. A lot of very good teams were right at 47%, so that’s kind of off-the charts in a stat category that’s usually lumped together very tight. Indiana has a huge edge in
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Indiana Pacers
Miami Heat
Stat Intelligence
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Sports Betting Podcast 5-21-2013 with Handicappers Rob Veno and Erin Rynning
05.21.2013 10:31 AM
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Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Rob Veno and Erin Rynning. Rob and Erin went through every game on the MLB card. Erin also discussed tonight's Memphis-San Antonio Game 2.
Today's segments
Full Show
Rob Veno - National League
Erin Rynning - American League and NBA
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
Tags:
MLB
NBA
Rob Veno
Erin Rynning
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Betting odds on who will win the 2013 NBA Lottery
05.21.2013 06:29 AM
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The NBA Lottery will be selected tonight followed by the actual draft on June 27. The lottery is weighted, giving more "chances" for the weaker teams to earn a higher draft spot. But despite the favorable odds, teams with the worst record have won the lottery only three times since 1990 – Orlando was the last team in 2004. If you like betting on events like these, The Greek posted odds on who will win the lottery. We broke down the moneyline, the odds percentage of the moneyline and actual percentage based on the NBA's sliding scale. Since Orlando's "win" in 2004, the following worst records have won the lottery: 6th-worst, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 8th, and 3rd (tie).
2013 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Team
Odds
Odds Pct.
Actual Pct.
Orlando Magic
+175
36.36%
25.00%
Charlotte Bobcats
+200
33.33%
19.90%
Cleveland Cavaliers
+350
22.22%
15.60%
Phoenix Suns
+650
13.30%
11.90%
New Orleans Pelicans
+1000
9.09%
8.80%
Sacramento Kings
+1200
7.69%
6.30%
Detroit Pistons
+1500
6.25%
4.30%
Washington Wizards
+1800
5.26%
2.80%
Minnesota Timberwolves
+3000
3.22%
1.70%
Portland Trailblazers
+3500
2.77%
1.10%
Oklahoma City Thunder (Via Toronto)
+5000
1.96%
0.80%
Philadelphia 76ers
+5000
1.96%
0.70%
Dallas Mavericks
+6500
1.51%
0.60%
Utah Jazz
+8000
1.23%
0.50%
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NBA
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
05.20.2013 09:44 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Arizona
(Corbin) -110 at
Colorado
(Garland) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Arizona
Arizona's Patrick Corbin has been flawless this season with a 1.52 ERA and solid 41-to-17 K-to-BB ratio. He’s a young lefty arm who has seen an uptick in velocity and plays on a quality team that is not overpriced in the betting markets. It would be foolish to think Corbin isn't going to regress some (see 3.91 xFIP) but despite his success the betting markets continue to bet against this kid and as a result his value has remained. He should be north of -125 in this particular matchup yet you can get him for as cheap as -110. Colorado's Jon Garland has thrown three straight games in which he's lasted only five innings and allowed three earned runs. With 26 strikeouts in 46 innings Garland simply isn't able to fool many batters at this point in his career. There are some metrics that suggest the starting pitching matchup is close but the eye test tells me to support the premium lefty arm at a discounted price.
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MLB
Arizona Diamonbacks
Colorado Rockies
Andrew Lange
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NBA Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs bomb from deep, take 1-0 series lead
05.20.2013 08:36 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Even when I was thinking the Spurs would need to shoot treys like the Knicks if they wanted to beat Memphis, I hadn’t imagined THIS for the start of the Western Conference Finals.
Three-Pointers: Memphis 5 of 12, San Antonio 14 of 29
That’s +9 in makes, which is +27 on the scoreboard, in a game the Spurs won by 22.
Don’t want to get too cute here. We had the KRIB Index for the Knicks when they were making a lot of treys while not turning the ball over (Knicks Re-Invent Basketball). San Antonio was actually +3 in that differential today. SPARE-RIB? SPurs ARE Re-Inventing Basketball? Nah.
And, besides, this kind of ball movement and brains is something we’ve associated with San Antonio for years. It’s important to remember that we were all associating it with them last year at this time, just as they were jumping ahead of Oklahoma City 2-0 before losing four straight. San Antonio plays a beautiful game…which is art when
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Tags:
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
Memphis Grizzlies
Stat Intelligence
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Breaking down the NBA's Final Four
05.20.2013 08:26 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Only four teams remain standing in the NBA Playoffs; one of whom will bring home the title less than a month from now. With both Conference Finals getting underway, I’ll take a look at the two series, looking for hidden nuggets pointing towards future pointspreads success.
There’s no question that predicting series success correlates strongly with predicting pointspread success when it comes to the NBA Playoffs. This year’s results stand out in that regard. In the West, Memphis went 10-1 ATS through the first two rounds of the playoffs. San Antonio covered the spread in seven out of ten through the first two rounds.
In the East, Indiana went 8-4 ATS, including a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS mark at home in Indianapolis; five of those six wins coming by a double-digit margin. And the defending champion and prohibitive favorite to win the title, Miami, despite their public nature, has gone 6-3 ATS in their first two series, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark on the highway – the mark of a strong, veteran championship contender.
When we add it up, we’re talking about 67% or better ATS results here
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Tags:
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
San Antonio Spurs
Miami Heat
Indiana Pacers
Teddy Covers
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NBA Handicapping: Memphis vs. San Antonio Statline Preview
05.19.2013 08:10 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
A new series starts Sunday. Let’s review regular season performance in the stat categories we’ve been studying in in the college and pro postseasons. Note that these are regular season only numbers. Prefer using an 82-game sample with similar strengths of schedule. Then we can pencil in what we’ve learned so far in the playoffs if need be.
(5) Memphis: 47% two-point defense, +3.7 rebounding, +1.5 TO’S, 4.7 treys, #29 full season pace
(2) S. Antonio: 47% two-point defense, +1.2 rebounding, +0.2 TO’S, 8.1 treys, #6 full season pace
Pretty clear differences there once you get past two-point defense. And, the whole world was at 47% in that category anyway if you’ll recall from our first round previews!
MEMPHIS is the “defense and rebounding wins championships” team, with a huge edge on the glass, and a proven ability to force a lot of turnovers. During the regular season we encouraged you to think of them as the
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Tags:
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
Memphis Grizzlies
Stat Intelligence
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NBA Betting Recap: Memphis and Miami headed to Conference Finals
05.16.2013 06:31 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Though there’s still a lot of basketball left to be played…there’s already a rumbling that the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat are on a collision course for the NBA Finals. Both wrapped up their second round series in five games Wednesday Night.
Memphis 88, Oklahoma City 84
2-Point Percentage: Memphis 40%, Oklahoma City 42%
3-Point Shooting: Memphis 3/14, Oklahoma City 6/25
Free Throws: Memphis 25/29, Oklahoma City 16/21
1’s and 2’s: Memphis 79, Oklahoma City 66
Rebounds: Memphis 45, Oklahoma City 44
Turnovers: Memphis 9, Oklahoma City 14
Memphis blew a big lead…then blew a big lead AGAIN before frantically holding on in the final moments. Kevin Durant of OKC stayed out of gas…only shooting 5 of 21 on the evening. I’m hoping statheads who generally decry “inventing a narrative” are learning to think a bit more about that. If you’re really
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Tags:
NBA
Miami Heat
Memphis Grizzlies
Stat Intelligence
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"NBA'"
May
22
NFL by Rob Veno
NFL by Teddy Covers
NCAAF by Rob Veno
NCAAF by Teddy Covers
Accu-Stats
Accu-Stat Matchups
Schedule Sheet
Accu-Stat Gamelogs
NFL Team Pages
College Football Team Pages
MLB Team Pages
Lange 20* MLB National League GOM
[78-47 +38.38 MLB Sides 2012-13]
$29
Over the last two seasons Andrew Lange has crushed it with his MLB sides, banking over +38 units of profit. Tonight he comes in with his 20* National League Game of the Month. Be a part of the winning for only $29; if it doesn't cash you'll get his next top rated play absolutely free.
Alf M. 20* PGA BMW PGA European Championship Heavy Hitter
$20
Alf is locked and loaded with a HUGE 20* Heavy Hitter in this weeks BMW PGA Championship on the European tour. Get this big 20* Heavy Hitter for just $20 and the package is guaranteed to produce a profit or his best bet is yours free next week.
Veno 10* NBA Eastern Finals O/U
[42-24 64% NBA Hot Streak]
$20
Rob's NBA is absolutely dominating right now with a red hot 42-24 64% streak. He keeps it rolling on Wednesday with this top total. The 10* is yours for $20 and it's guaranteed to cash or you'll get his next hoops report free.
T.Covers 10* NBA Eastern Finals Cash
[27-19 59% NBA Side Streak]
$20
Teddy has racked up a rock solid 59% hot streak over his last 46 NBA sides and he's ready to deliver another winning report as the Eastern Conference Finals start tonight. Yours for just $20 it's guaranteed to win or you'll get his next NBA report at no cost.
Alatex 10* MLB West Coast Special
[+8.520 Unit MLB Hot Streak]
$20
Brent takes a trip out to the West Coast for a little late night baseball action as he continues his +8.5 unit hot streak in MLB. Yours for $20 this 10* is guaranteed to win or you'll get his next report absolutely free.
T.Covers 10* MLB Road Warrior Winner
$20
Teddy sees a distinct advantage in multiple fundamental categories for this road team, getting him to the window in support. Find out which bunch of Road Warriors gets the win with this 10* report for just $20. It's guaranteed to cash or his next report is free.
Alf M. PGA Weekend Match-ups
[2 tourneys with 4 plays]
$49
Golf bettors have an opportunity to attack two big events this week with the European BMW Championship and Crown Plaza Invitational. You get four matchups with this package including a 20*, 15* and two 10* plays for $49. It's guaranteed to produce a net profit or his next tournament package is free.
All Sport Special
[Thru 5/26]
$99
All Access Autobill
$299
Rest of NBA Playoffs
$149
Rest of NHL Playoffs
$149
Rest of May MLB
$149
2013 MLB Season
$749
Rest of PGA Season
$399
Brent Crow
Teddy Covers
Rob Veno
Erin Rynning
Marty Otto
Andrew Lange
Sammy P
Alf Musketa
Ian Cameron
