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Teddy Covers' Vegas Wiseguy Report: Attacking Cantor's Opening NFL Lines
05.13.2013 11:06 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
I’ve got to give Cantor Gaming a boatload of credit this week. While the vast majority of other sportsbooks around the globe collectively twiddled their thumbs following the NFL Draft, Cantor was the first major book to market with both season win totals and with pointspreads for every regular season game through Week 16. And Cantor released all of those numbers in their unique style – confident, aggressive, high limit bookmaking, exactly what the industry needs more of these days.
Of course, my job isn’t to praise Cantor. Like any bettor here in Las Vegas, my job is to beat Cantor! Over the course of the hot, summer months (the first 100 degree day of the year in Vegas comes this week, with many more to follow), I’ll spend a handful of articles discussing those 2013 NFL season win totals as the markets begin to mature. But this week, I’m going to write about Cantor’s ‘every game, every week’ pointspreads for an NFL season that won’t even kick off until September! There certainly aren’t many opportunities in the sportsbetting world to get down significant wagers on regular season games that won’t be played
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College Basketball Handicapping: Hybrid Power Ratings
03.13.2013 07:32 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Updated these today. If you’re new to the blog….what you see below are a combination of:
*The team’s average margin in conference play ONLY
*Adjusted for conference strength based on Jeff Sagarin’s conference ratings (scroll way down)
Sagarin has the Big 10 as the best conference in the nation. So, I just used the normal margin averages for Big 10 teams. For the other teams:
Big East: margin average -1.5
Big 12: margin average -2.4
ACC: margin average -3.5
Mountain West: margin average -3.8
Pac 12: margin average -4.2
SEC: margin average -4.5
Atlantic 10: margin average -5.9
Missouri Valley: margin average -7.7
West Coast: margin average -9.2
Conference USA: margin average -10.3
Horizon: margin average -11.8
Metro-Atlantic: margin average -12.1
Colonial: margin average -13.5
Sun Belt: margin -15.1
Ohio
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NCAA Basketball Gambling: Indiana, Florida, and Memphis all falter on the road
02.27.2013 07:37 AM
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Stat Intelligence
March has its Madness. Late February college basketball doesn’t have anything to get excited about beyond the fact that it’s a “Prelude to March Madness.” As a result, this stretch of calendar historically has seen many subpar efforts from college powers. The kids can’t concentrate on their homework because Christmas is coming.
Tonight, the top two computer teams in the Jeff Sagarin and Ken Pomeroy rankings both lost outright as road favorites. One guy has Indiana #1 and Florida #2, the other has it the other way. Our estimate of market Power Ratings also had those teams as the top two last time we looked. Tonight’s boxscores from Minnesota and Tennessee show the visiting powers were linked up in “lack of focus” categories as well…
Two-Point Defense
Indiana allowed 53% inside the arc, Florida allowed 49%
Rebounding
Indiana was -13 in rebound differential, Florida was -11
Forced
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College Basketball
Indiana Hoosiers
Florida Gators
Memphis Tiigers
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College Basketball Gambling: Top ranked Indiana melts down at Illinois
02.08.2013 12:17 PM
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Stat Intelligence
Number one Indiana trailed for a fraction of a second in the second half Thursday night in its Big Ten road game against Illinois in Champaign-Urbana. It was the fraction of a second that mattered most…as Illinois hit a shot just before the buzzer to make it FIVE STRAIGHT WEEKS where the top team in the AP poll was knocked off its perch.
Illinois 74, #1 Indiana 72
2-Point Percentage: Indiana 48%, Illinois 50%
3-Point Shooting: Indiana 9/17, Illinois 9/24
Free Throws: Indiana 13/14, Illinois 13/15
1’s and 2’s: Indiana 45, Illinois 47
Rebounds: Indiana 28, Illinois 21
Turnovers: Indiana 14, Illinois 9
(Indiana 2-1 in Kenpom/Sagarin respectively, Illinois 56-51)
We talked about Indiana’s penchant for sloppiness in our coverage of the Michigan game last weekend. That was an issue here…as the team was -5 in the turnover category against an opponent that was second best
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College Basketball
Illinois Fighting Illini
Indiana Hoosiers
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NFL Handicapping: Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31...Ravens Win Super Bowl XLVII
02.04.2013 06:19 AM
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Stat Intelligence
Congratulations to all who won last night. Sincere condolences to all who lost (unless you did so with arrogant posturing through the week, then you got what you deserved!). Let’s crunch the numbers…
Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31
Total Yardage: Baltimore 367, San Francisco 468
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 5.2, San Francisco 7.8
Rushing Yards: Baltimore 93, San Francisco 182
Passing Line: Baltimore 22-33-0-274, San Francisco 16-28-1-286
Turnovers: Baltimore 1, San Francisco 2
Third Downs: Baltimore 56%, San Francisco 22%
Sloppiness: Baltimore 16, San Francisco 22
Drive Points: Baltimore 10, San Francisco 13
Cheap Points: Baltimore 24, San Francisco 18
(If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more….sloppiness is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes).
Some
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NFL
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl XLVII
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Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bet Recommendation: Joe Flacco pass attempts
01.29.2013 02:10 PM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
Joe Flacco Pass Attempts
Recommendation: Over 33.5 (-150 @ 5Dimes)
My thinking behind this prop is fairly straightforward. I don’t see the Ravens being able to get their running game going against the staunch 49ers defensive front. Baltimore running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce were held in check by the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship with just 100 rushing yards. New England had the 9th ranked run defense in the NFL this season. San Francisco has the 4th ranked run defense allowing a paltry 94.2 yards per game. I don’t anticipate seeing a lot of success running the football for Baltimore once again this week and that will force Joe Flacco into passing situations early and often if the Ravens are going to be able to move the football and put points on the board.
Flacco’s pass attempts skyrocketed upward in Baltimore’s last two playoff games. He threw the football 34 times against Denver despite the Ravens run game working well that day and he threw the football 36 times against New England. Part of it was because the run game didn’t work against the Patriots but also because Flacco is playing
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NFL
Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl XLVII
Ian Cameron
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Overlooked Super Bowl XLVII Handicapping Factor: Baltimore's Disruptive Defense
01.25.2013 07:04 AM
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Stat Intelligence
We’re still early in the hype sequence for this year’s Super Bowl. But, already, it’s pretty clear that the main stories are going to be:
The Harbaugh brother angle
Colin Kaepernick and related Kaepernickia
Joe Flacco breaking through to “elite” status
Ray Lewis’s retirement
Something I think has been overlooked so far (and I'm including myself in this) is the role Baltimore’s defense has played in disrupting opposing quarterbacks so far in the playoffs. You regulars know that I developed a ridiculously simple stat for eyeballing how clean or sloppy an offense is playing…or, from the other perspective, how clean or sloppy an opposing defense allows an offense to play.
Sloppiness: 5 times turnovers…plus the number of incomplete passes
I’m pleased that so many have agreed with me that this is a great stat for painting the picture of a game, even if it is embarrassingly
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NFL
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl XLVII
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NFL Handicapping: Drive Points and Power Ratings for Super Bowl XLVII
01.21.2013 01:41 PM
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Stat Intelligence
As promised, we’re back to look at the drive point numbers for the two remaining teams in the NFL brackets. If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. We’ve been using it through the regular season to try and get a read as best as possible on “true” offense and defense.
First, a reminder of the regular season averages for the Super Bowl bound San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens.
Regular Season Averages
San Francisco: 15.4 on offense, 11.6 on defense (#3 Sagarin schedule)
Baltimore: 15.7 on offense, 12.5 on defense (#18 Sagarin schedule)
The Niners get the nod in regular season numbers, with +3.8 vs. a killer schedule being better than +3.2 vs. what was roughly an average schedule. Is strength of schedule enough to bump them up to superiority by more than a field goal at a neutral site? Interesting that teams coached by brothers had such similar
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NFL
San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl XLVII
Stat Intelligence
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NFL Handicapping: Betting Market Acting Like Patriots Money ISN'T Coming
01.18.2013 07:42 AM
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Stat Intelligence
There was a startling development Thursday in the legal betting markets regarding Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the favored New England Patriots and underdog Baltimore Ravens.
New England had been favored by 9 points. That line had fallen to a pretty solid 8.5 by midday. Then, it was a solid 8 by night time as I was writing this. That may not strike many of you as a big deal. After all, 9 and 8 aren’t common numbers. But, if you know the markets, it was actually a VERY big deal, because it may be suggesting in dramatic fashion that oddsmakers and sharps no longer expect a flood of New England money over the weekend.
For a second…as we walk through this…start with the premise that New England money IS coming. Squares (the betting public) generally wait until the weekend to bet. Squares typically bet favorites. Squares have established in the past that they like betting on marquee teams like the New England Patriots. Squares have also established that they like
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NFL
New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
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NFL Handicapping: Public lined up on San Francisco, Baltimore, and both overs
01.18.2013 07:21 AM
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A quick look at few betting consensuses for this weekend's NFL Conference Championships.
OddsShark shows 63.1% lined up on San Francisco while underdog Baltimore checks in at 55.6%. The over for both games is right at 64%.
Sports Options shows a similar output with 71% of the "public" on the 49ers and 57% on the Ravens. Both totals again, at 60% or more to the over.
Bookmaker's numbers are even stronger – these represent the number of bets, not handle. San Fran has taken a whopping 74.6% of bets and the over (wow!) at 83.8%. Baltimore is just shy of 60% and the over at 77.7%.
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NFL
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons
New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
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