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NBA Handicapping: Chicago Shocks Brooklyn...as Deron Williams Disappears
04.23.2013 05:48 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
We have our first road victory of the 2013 NBA Playoffs…and what’s now shaping up as our first interesting series in the East...after Chicago (+5.5) shocked Brooklyn 90-82 Monday night in a game most of you probably watched on TNT.
This was quite a turnaround from Brooklyn’s 106-89 victory Saturday. And, the entirety of that turnaround came on the defensive end for Chicago. Look at how similar these offensive stats were for the Bulls in the first two games…
Bulls' Offense in Games 1 and 2
Scoring: 89 and 90
2-point Shooting: 50% and 52%
3-point Shooting: 25% and 25%
Free Throws: 15 of 22 and 13 of 23
1’s and 2’s: 83 and 81
It can be tempting to for a halo effect to cover everything a team does when they reverse a scoreboard result this dramatically. Be careful giving too much credit to the offense Tuesday. The Bulls still can’t make treys. They’re still not as
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Chicago Bulls
Brooklyn Nets
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Miami Heat fit the profile of a champion
04.15.2013 07:50 AM
Printer Friendly
Every year, prior to the end of the regular season, I write a column I call ‘Who Has What it Takes to Win the Big Dance”. After Louisville’s NCAA Tournament Championship this year, we’ve seen future champions fit a specific statistical profile in 15 of the last 16 tournaments. As a result of that specific statistical profile, I can simply go through all the contending teams, one by one, to see which squad has the best chance (or one of the best chances) to cut down the nets following six consecutive victories over a three week span.
I do not go through a specific statistical profile that predicts NBA playoff success the same way I do for college. And while the NCAA Tournament is a relative sprint, the NBA Playoffs are an extended, two month long marathon; a war of attrition as much as anything else. A race towards a four series, 16 victory championship requires talent and health.
We don’t see longshots winning NBA titles very often. The biggest surprise teams to win a title in the last two decades – the 2004 Pistons and the 2011 Mavericks – were both deep, veteran, defensive minded
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Teddy Covers
Miami Heat
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NBA Handicapping: Bullseye Officially Moves to Utah's Back, Bucks Desperate to Rise in East
03.05.2013 08:04 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Normally, a Utah Jazz/Milwaukee Bucks matchup wouldn’t be the showcase game of the night in the NBA. But, that was definitely the case this evening because both teams had a lot at stake…and then we went overtime!
*Utah knew that a loss would drop them into eighth place in the West, just two games ahead of the surging Los Angeles Lakers. They thought they were relatively safe a couple of weeks ago. But, home losses as favorites to Boston and Atlanta were service breaks that came at the worst possible time.
*Milwaukee is #8 in the East, and safely in the brackets because everyone from 9-15 is so far back that it would take a few miracles to unseat the Bucks. But, as you know, #8 is a HORRIBLE place to be in the Miami Heat’s conference. Milwaukee has a chance to catch Boston…and possibly Brooklyn.
Both teams wanted this one bad…and played like it. Let’s review the numbers…
Milwaukee 109, Utah 108 (in
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Utah Jazz
Milwaukee Bucks
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Betting odds on who will win the 2012 NBA Lottery
05.02.2012 12:42 PM
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The NBA Lottery will be selected May 30 followed by the actual draft on June 28. The lottery is weighted, giving more "chances" for the weaker teams to earn a higher draft spot. But despite the favorable odds, teams with the worst record have won the lottery only three times since 1990 – Orlando was the last team in 2004. If you like betting on events like these, The Greek posted odds on who will win the lottery. We broke down the moneyline, the odds percentage of the moneyline and actual percentage based on the NBA's sliding scale. Since Orlando's "win" in 2004, the following worst records have won the lottery: 6th-worst, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th and 8th.
2012 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Team
Odds
Odds Pct.
Actual Pct.
Charlotte Bobcats
+175
36.3%
25.0%
Washington Wizards
+200
33.3%
19.9%
Cleveland Cavaliers
+500
16.7%
15.6%
New Orleans Hornets
+650
13.3%
11.9%
New Jersey Nets
+800
11.1%
8.8%
Sacramento Kings
+800
11.1%
6.3%
Golden State Warriors
+1500
6.3%
4.3%
Toronto Raptors
+1600
5.9%
2.8%
Detroit Pistons
+3000
3.2%
1.7%
New Orleans Hornets (via the LAC)
+4000
2.4%
1.1%
Portland Trailblazers
+5000
1.9%
0.8%
Milwaukee Bucks
+6000
1.6%
0.7%
Phoenix Suns
+7000
1.4%
0.6%
Houston Rockets
+10000
0.9%
0.5%
Draft Notes according to Wikipedia
1: New Jersey Nets' pick was conveyed to the Portland Trail Blazers although it is top 3 protected.
2: Golden State Warrior's pick is top 7 protected.
3: Minnesota Timberwolves' pick was conveyed to the New Orleans Hornets.
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NBA Gambling Notes: New Jersey plays final home game before move to Brooklyn
04.23.2012 07:49 AM
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Philadelphia
-9 at
New Jersey
O/U 187
Final home game for the
New Jersey Nets
before making the move to Brooklyn next season. Their opponent, Philadelphia, needs to win one of its final three games (or a Milwaukee loss) to secure the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference.
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New Jersey Nets
Philadelphia 76ers
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NBA Handicapper Free Play: New York Knicks at New Jersey Nets
04.18.2012 11:11 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
New York
at
New Jersey
+8.5 O/U 193
Recommendation: New Jersey
It’s been another long, ugly season in New Jersey, but head coach Avery Johnson still has his team fighting hard down the stretch. A matchup with their rivals from across the river isn’t likely to change that. We saw the Nets take Miami down to the wire in their last game; a wire-to-wire pointspread cover as +8.5 underdogs. Now the betting markets are trying to tell us that the Knicks – playing on the second night of back-to-backs, one night after hitting a whopping 19 three pointers in a national TV win over Boston – deserve the same market respect as Miami did two nights ago.
Plain and simple: I’m not buying that argument. If Miami was -8.5 at Jersey two days ago, the tired Knicks have no business laying the same spread. Here’s a pertinent quote from Coach Johnson following the Nets loss to Miami. “(Monday) was the first time
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New York Knicks
New Jersey Nets
Teddy Covers
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NBA Handicapper Free Play: New Jersey Nets at Portland Trail Blazers
04.04.2012 10:16 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
New Jersey
+8 at
Portland
O/U 196
Recommendation: New Jersey
The Blazers have no business in this pointspread range, even against a losing team like New Jersey on the second night of back-to-backs. Portland has been slumping since the All Star Break; just 7-13 SU in their last 20 games. Whatever small chance they had of putting together a late season run to make the playoffs ended on Monday, when point guard Ray Felton had back-to-back turnovers in the final minute of a one point game, turning a late lead into a five point defeat. The Blazers have already fired their coach and traded away their two best defensive veterans (Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby). Third leading scorer (and best clutch shooter) Jamal Crawford sat on Monday with a balky knee, no sure thing to play (or play effectively) tonight. And it’s surely worth noting that three of the last four Blazers SU wins have come by six points or less – this team simply isn’t capable of winning games by big
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New Jersey Nets
Portland Trail Blazers
Teddy Covers
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NBA Handicapper Free Play: New Jersey Nets at Golden State Warriors
03.30.2012 10:15 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
New Jersey
at
Golden State
-3.5 O/U 196.5
Recommendation: Over
The rash of injuries to New Jersey’s roster leaves them with nine healthy and very small bodies for this evening’s game against the Warriors. Center Brook Lopez is already gone for the season, backup Shelden Williams is out with an eye injury and fellow post player Jordan Williams is doubtful. With only Johan Petro owning interior size to help starting forward Kris Humphries, expect Golden State’s quick and smallish group to attack the rim without fear in this contest. Conversely the same can be said about the Warriors who have been playing small and are using 6-10 rookie Jeremy Tyler as their center. New Jersey’s Derron Williams figures to be able to drive to the rim at will as well as recently acquired forward Gerald Wallace, guard Marshawn Brooks and his backup Gerald Green. This game just adds up fundamentally to be a matchup of offensively capable guards and swingmen along with the high
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Golden State Warriors
New Jersey Nets
Rob Veno
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NBA Handicapping: Utah plays second of back-to-back after four OT loss
03.26.2012 08:08 AM
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Unique back-to-back situation for the Utah Jazz after losing at Atlanta last night in
quadruple overtime
. The loss snapped Utah's six-game winning streak. Tonight, the Jazz are 1.5-point underdogs at New Jersey. Atlanta meanwhile was playing its third game in three nights and has tonight off before traveling to Milwaukee Tuesday. The last quadruple OT game in the NBA was back in 1997 when Phoenix defeated Portland 140-139. The Suns has the next day off but Portland managed to win and cover the following night against Golden State.
Utah's minutes last night
Devin Harris 54:51
CJ Miles 49:33
Al Jefferson 51:19
Gordon Hayward 57:28
Paul Millsap 52:56
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Utah Jazz
New Jersey Nets
Atlanta Hawks
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NBA Handicapping: Miami Heat expect to have Bosh back in the lineup
03.06.2012 06:50 AM
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New Jersey
at
Miami
The Miami Heat return home after
back-to-back losses
to close out a short west coast road trip. Chris Bosh expects to return to the lineup after missing three games due to a death in the family. Head coach Erik Spoelstra noted that
Bosh's absence
hurt the team on both ends of the floor.
“No question about it, Chris Bosh is a major component to what we do on both ends of the court,” Spoelstra said. “That’s why we don’t listen to anybody when they talk about Chris’s importance or value. He’s one of the best players in this league, but more importantly, he has a great impact on how we play, and he settles us.”
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Miami Heat
New Jersey Nets
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