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MLB Gambling News: A Unique Look at Offenses
05.20.2013 10:02 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
As you probably know, I’ve been playing around with 5-inning options in Major League Baseball this year. Part of the fun of that is doing record-keeping that you know nobody else is doing. Helps you see things from different perspectives.
I’ve been logging all the results by hand because there aren’t any websites I know of that go in-depth with this stuff. That’s GREAT, because it’s easier to gain and maintain an edge over the market when information isn’t widely available. Don’t think I’ll be giving away anything to vital in this post…though creative readers may find a way to use the data.
Here’s the percentage of time that each offense has reached at least two runs in the first five innings this year, through the games of Sunday afternoon…
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit 76%
Baltimore 73%
LA Angels 68%
Boston 68%
Tampa Bay 67%
Cleveland
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MLB
Stat Intelligence
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MLB Betting News: Roy Halladay rediscovers sinker, success
04.24.2013 07:14 AM
Printer Friendly
Pittsburgh
(Rodriguez) at
Philadelphia
(Halladay) -125 O/U 7
The reinvention of Roy Halladay is upon us! Halladay's back-to-back quality starts (15 IP, 7 hits, 3 ERs) could be contributed to a
change in philosophy
. Living (and dying) on the cutter over the last few seasons, Halladay has started to focus more on his sinker – he threw it 50 times last time out vs. St. Louis. Considering batters are hitting .438 vs. Halladay's cutter, this is without question a positive adjustment.
"He was constantly down and in on righties," Wigginton said. "Always a borderline ball-strike call."
"I saw a guy who didn't have his best stuff but competes his way into being very good," Matheny said. "The longer he went out there, he got better. He made a lot of mistakes. He worked deeper counts than I know he likes
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MLB
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
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Big East Tournament Betting Preview
03.11.2013 02:13 PM
Rob Veno
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno
Big East Conference Tournament Preview
This is the final Big East Tournament so especially expect the eight original members to bring complete focus and effort to their matchups. The 15-team league will only have a 14-team field since Connecticut’s low APR scores prevent them from participating. As always, multiple upsets are extremely possible. My power ratings indicate that on this Madison Square Garden neutral site floor there are eight teams separated by only 9.5 points. However, none of the bottom four teams playing in the first round appear capable of duplicating Connecticut’s Cinderella five-day run in 2011. That being said, there are teams playing on the second day that could repeat Louisville’s four-win run to the title as last year’s No. 7 seed. The top of this league possesses a lot of power and it’s possible that either No. 1 Georgetown or No. 2 Louisville could grab a top seed in the NCAA Tournament if they win this championship. Last season, the favorites were very strong here going 11-4 against the spread while totals went 5-10 O/U. Just to show how volatile the ATS results can be here in MSG, two years ago
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Rob Veno
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A perfect match: Gambling and the Super Bowl
01.21.2013 12:34 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Publicly, the NFL is among one of the staunchest opponents of legalized gambling. Former commissioner Paul Tagliabue and current commissioner Roger Goodell were instrumental in getting the anti gaming ‘Illegal Internet Gambling Prohibition Act’ attached to the Port Security Bill. The NFL has taken this stance despite the fact that its enormous popularity is, in no small part, due to the prevalence of betting on games.
The hypocrisy of the NFL in regards to betting is almost laughable. The facts, as you will see, clearly show that the league was founded by gamblers for gamblers. From the NFL’s first television appearance in 1939 through the current TV deal that pumps more than three billion dollars per year into the league coffers, the NFL’s popularity rests upon the shoulders of those who wager on the outcome of the games.
Here in the 21st century, the NFL is the most popular and profitable sport in the. NFL owners are among the richest men in the world; franchises are bought and sold for more than half a billion dollars. However, the league’s humble origins were anything but the extravagant bonanza that is the NFL today.
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Teddy Covers
Super Bowl XLVII
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamonbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
08.09.2012 08:05 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Arizona
(Saunders) at
Pittsburgh
(Rodriguez) -125 O/U 8
Recommendation: Under
PNC Park has been a cash cow for UNDERS this season at 16-34-2 O/U. The Pirates had a big offensive surge from mid-June to mid-July that saw then average over six runs per game. They've since come back down to earth, averaging about four runs over their last 19 games. And during that stretch, the scores at PNC Park have been extremely low with outputs of 7, 6, 3, 2, 6, 5, 4, 14 and 13. Note that the last two games were aided by unearned runs and a few bullpen meltdowns. The lefty vs. lefty matchup at PNC Park is one that I have been consistently betting UNDER the last few years. Game 1 of this series featured southpaws Wade Miley and Erik Bedard and the end result was just four runs. Wandy Rodriguez has thrown back-to-back quality starts since coming over from Houston. I think his curveball is a good matchup against some of Arizona's dead fastball hitters. Joe Saunders continues to amaze despite marginal
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Andrew Lange
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MLB Gambling Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
08.04.2012 08:09 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Pittsburgh
(McDonald) at
Cincinnati
(Leake) -130 O/U 9
Recommendation: Cincinnati
Pittsburgh's James McDonald was at one point sitting with a 2.19 ERA which for his stuff, simply could not be maintained. He may be going through a bit of a dead arm period with four consecutive rough outings (20.2 IP, 19 BB, 6 HR, 8.71 ERA). The tell-tale sign something isn’t right is the walks. Normally a strike thrower, McDonald has had real difficulty with his command and as a result, cannot be trusted. Mike Leake's season started out rough as his ERA sat 5.47 at the end of May. But he turned the corner and over his last 11 outings shows a 3.71 ERA. He's been a little shaky of late (see: 5 ERs in 1.2 IP vs. San Diego) but this is a good opportunity for a bounce back effort – Leake has a solid track record vs. the Pirates (8 starts, 3.16 ERA). Starting pitcher in better form, the stronger offense, and reasonable price put us on the Reds.
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@LangeSportsmemo
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Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapping: Playoff projections and odds
08.01.2012 07:34 AM
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Baseball Prospectus' updated
MLB Playoff Odds
. Doesn't take much to figure out the Minnesota Twins ain't making it, but do check out the projections for teams like Baltimore and Oakland. And also the Pittsburgh Pirates who as of August 1 have a 52% shot to reach their first postseason since 1992.
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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
07.24.2012 09:24 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Chicago Cubs
(Maholm) +165 at
Pittsburgh
(McDonald) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Chicago
FanGraphs
pointed out some excellent statistics on the likelihood of regression for Pittsburgh's James McDonald. Here are some of the highlights:
He has posted a walk rate of 5.3 during the month after two straight months at 2.1, while his strikeout rate has sat below 7.0 since the beginning of June.
There is absolutely no reason to believe he can possibly sustain a .257 BABIP, especially given his 22% line drive rate and miniscule pop-up rate.
Since the All-Star break, we've seen McDonald start to regress with two sub-par starts that resulted in 9.2 IP, 17 hits, 10 ER, 3 HRs, 9 BBs, 4 Ks. Bottom line is even when McDonald was dialed in, trusting him as a -175 favorite was difficult. With him primed for more regression the decision to fade him
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MLB Betting News: Pirates may regress but have favorable upcoming schedule
07.16.2012 01:10 PM
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LVH oddsmaker Jay Kornegay weighs in on the
Pittsburgh Pirates
and their chances at not falling off the face of the earth the second half of the season. The Pirates are currently 49-39 and trail Cincinnati by one game in the National League Central. As much fun as it is to root for the Pirates the reality is it is going to be tough for them to finish above .500 let alone remain in the mix for a playoff berth. Concerns have already surfaced about Erik Bedard who has looked rough over his last three starts (14.1 IP, 8.16 ERA). AJ Burnett has also not been as sharp (5.40 last four starts). Pittsburgh is an amazing 13-3 in Burnett's starts this season despite a relatively modest 4.5 runs per game worth of support. And let's also not forget the offense has averaged six runs per game over the last month – a stat that simply cannot be sustained especially with that many holes in the lineup. But before we write them off, note their very favorable upcoming schedule. The Pirates play at Colorado (3), vs. Miami (3), vs. Chicago (3), at Houston (4), at Chicago (3), at Cincinnati (3), vs.
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MLB Handicapping: Change in repertoire changes McDonald
07.11.2012 06:54 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Fan Graphs
pinpoints the reason
for Pirates RH James McDonald’s drastic turnaround from a career 4.00 ERA pitcher to one who currently owns a 2.37 mark this season. His K:BB ratio has also greatly improved from 1.87 career to 3.22 in 2012.
The joint decision between the Pirates staff and McDonald to virtually eliminate his changeup from his arsenal of pitches and add a slider has led to his breakout first half. Fan Graphs details how the slider has become McDonald’s secondary pitch and his most effective in generating swings and misses. They do however caution that a regression could be coming but overall, the 27 year old righty will remain a much improved pitcher.
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MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
James McDonald
Rob Veno
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