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MLB Handicapping: Analyzing Offenses Over the Past Four Weeks

07.08.2013     08:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Because a lot of the “four-max” data that we’ve been presenting on Sunday nights has become fairly locked in halfway into the season, I wanted to focus instead today on what’s been happening the past month. There are some fairly established surges and collapses that you should be aware of if you’re reporting on baseball as a writer or betting on baseball in Las Vegas.

If this is your first time reading about the four-max approach (always some newbies popping in), here’s what we’re doing.

*Only recording offense in the first five innings

*Cutting off scoring at a maximum of four runs

*Tabulating full season averages from that 0-1-2-3-4 scale

This was started as a way to have a framework for handicapping “first half” betting propositions in the markets (you can pick the winner or bet Over/Unders for just the first five innings of baseball games). But, it was clear pretty quickly that the numbers Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Gambling News: Streaks abound in the National League West

07.08.2013     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The National League West has officially become a handicapping nightmare. Arizona lost eight of nine but bounced back with five straight wins. Los Angeles has crawled back into the division race having won 12 of 15. San Diego was hovering around .500 but just wrapped up a 1-9 road trip. San Francisco has lost five straight series to fall 6.5 games back of the D-Backs. And Colorado has lost six of seven and had two more players go down with injuries as Roy Oswalt left Sunday's start with a bum hamstring and Carlos Gonzalez hurt a finger.

"We have to figure it out. We are banged up, but a lot of teams are. We have to find a way to win games, that's the bottom line," Weiss said. "We have to put together better at-bats. I don't care who's pitching. You can only give credit to the pitcher so much."

"We are in a bad situation right now. We have to play better. We don't look the same. It's been a bad time. They totally played better than us," said Gonzalez, whose finger X-Ray didn't reveal a break,

Read more

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB Betting Recap: Cincinnati's Homer Bailey tosses second no-hitter

07.03.2013     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Homer Bailey of the Cincinnati Reds threw a no-hitter Tuesday night against the slumping San Francisco Giants. It’s amazing how all the arguing on twitter can come to a halt for something like that…everybody loves a no-hitter!

Bailey has now thrown the last two in the majors, having tossed one in Pittsburgh last season.

It was also a night for “no” from the five-inning perspective, meaning NO SCORING for a lot of teams. If you’re new to the blog, we tend to focus on five-inning action here because that’s a popular betting proposition in the markets (because it eliminates concern about closers)…and because nobody else is writing about it anywhere.


*Philadelphia at Pittsburgh was 0-0 through five innings (Pettibone and Cumpton)

*Milwaukee at Washington was 0-0 through five innings (Peralta and Strasburg)

*Arizona posted a 0 in New York vs. Hefner

*Colorado posted a 0 at home vs. Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Stat Intelligence

MLB Gambling Notes: Cincinnati Reds Still Struggling vs. Quality Teams

06.27.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Cincinnati Reds just got swept in a quick two-game series in Oakland, losing by a combined score of 12-3. That continues a trend we’ve been discussing on and off this season. The Reds have played very poorly (for a contender) against teams at .500 or better, while absolutely annihilating teams who are below .500.

Let’s run the numbers for the Reds and the other NL Central contenders for some context…

Records vs. .500 or Better

Pittsburgh 18-14

St. Louis 18-15

Cincinnati 15-26

Pittsburgh and St. Louis at least belong in the SuperLeague, even if they’re not dominating within the “best vs. best” matchups. The Reds are showing very poorly in comparison.

Records vs. Under .500

Cincinnati 30-8

St. Louis 30-15

Pittsburgh 30-16

This is why the Reds are in the divisional (and Wildcard) race. They’re doing a great job of taking Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Stat Intelligence

MLB Handicapping: Colorado's Roy Oswalt back on the bump

06.20.2013     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Colorado (Oswalt) at Washington (Zimmermann) -170 O/U 7

Roy Oswalt makes his return tonight in Washington after making five starts at Double-A (33.1 IP, 2.16 ERA, 25 Ks, 7 BBs, 5 HRs). According to one report, Oswalt's fastball was "consistently at 92 mph" and got as high as 95. In another, Oswalt himself admitted he more of a "91-92" guy and no longer "94." Not sure he's got the stuff to succeed in Coors Field at this stage in his career but tonight's matchup is one he should be able to handle.

"He's always a competitive guy, a tough at-bat," Weiss said. "He's a nice piece to have. He's ready to go. His velocity is real good and throwing all his pitches. "He's done just about everything in this game, pitched in big

Read more

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies Washington Nationals

MLB Gambling Notes: Oswalt makes first start for Texas

06.22.2012     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Colorado (Friedrich) at Texas (Oswalt) -200 O/U 10.5

Texas' Roy Oswalt will make his seasonable debut tonight against Colorado. Oswalt threw 100 pitches in his most recent start for Triple-A Round Rock.

"I feel great," Oswalt said in a conference call Wednesday. "I feel as good as I've always felt. I don't really have any complications anywhere right now. The biggest thing is to get back going and get a few starts under your belt where you have muscle memory and feel comfortable. You can start building off that."

"I think I'm pretty close," Oswalt said. "The biggest thing down here was to build some arm strength and get back into pitching shape. You can throw a lot of bullpens and lift a lot of weights, but until you get out there and compete against hitters and get into pitching shape, you can't duplicate

Read more

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Colorado Rockies

MLB Handicapping: Oswalt nears return with Texas thin on arms

06.18.2012     01:14 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Bettors should expect to see Texas' Roy Oswalt toe the rubber soon. The Rangers have yet to announce a specific date but with the current state of the rotation (Feliz, Holland and Ogando all on the DL) it likely won't be long. Oswalt has made four minor league starts including a 100-pitch outing for Triple-A Round Rock on Sunday.

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers

MLB Betting News: Texas puts Feliz on DL, interested in acquiring Oswalt

05.23.2012     02:11 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Texas' Neftali Feliz is headed to the 15-day DL with an elbow strain. Feliz's transition from reliever to starter has had its ups and downs. According to FanGraphs, his effectiveness was limited due to some changes in repertoire.

Now, in 2012 as a starter, Feliz has seemingly lost the ability to miss bats. Depending on whether we look at his BIS numbers or PITCHf/x numbers, we might think Feliz is either struggling with location or hitting his locations well. BIS says his Zone% is near a career high; PITCHf/x says his Zone% is at a career low. Either way, it is not lower than 78%, which is still within the range of effectiveness for most starters.

Now the Rangers are looking to go after Roy Oswalt.

"... If Roy is a possibility, I want to visit with JD and see what the scouts told him that they had seen. I really think that Roy wants to come back. He

Read more

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers

MLB Betting Alert: Huge totals move in Phillies-Nationals game

06.01.2011     08:06 AM     Printer Friendly
Philadelphia (Oswalt) -150 at Washington (Lannan) O/U 8

Significant move with this afternoon's total between Philadelphia and Washington. CRIS and Pinnacle opened the game at 7o-120 but a steady stream of action on the over has the current market price at 8o-120 with CRIS dealing an 8.5u-115. The Nationals are 12-13 O/U at home this season but the weather is expected to warm up considerably with game time temps in the low 90's and the wind blowing out to center 8-12 MPH. Line history below courtesy of Pinnacle.



Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Roy Oswalt Washington Nationals John Lannan

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Philadelphia at New York

05.27.2011     10:29 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Philadelphia (Oswalt) -140 at New York (Capuano) O/U 7
Recommendation: Under

The Philadelphia Phillies (31-19) travel to Citi Field to take on division rival New York (23-26) for Friday. The Mets have scored more than three runs just once in their past nine games and must now face Roy Oswalt, who has posted some solid stats on the season with a 2.77 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .245 BAA. Oswalt dominated in two other road starts at pitcher friendly parks, allowing just one total run in 11 innings at St. Louis and San Diego. The Mets are hitting just .246 and don’t figure to generate many scoring opportunities.

The Phillies have the best record in the National League and have gone 4-2 against the Mets at home this season. Philadelphia has the best pitching staff in the NL with a 3.04 ERA and .298 OBS while leading the NL in strikeouts with 418. The bullpen has been excellent to support the sensational starting staff, as Phillies relievers have a 2.64 ERA and .217 BAA.

Philadelphia will Read more

Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Roy Oswalt New York Mets Chris Capuano __


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