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NFL Gambling: A look back at last year's 20* winner on Carolina Under 8.5 Wins

07.27.2015     08:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Below is Teddy Covers' write-up for last year's NFL Season O/U Wins Report 20* winner. Since 2001, Teddy has produced a documented record of 71-31 70% including 11-1 92% with his 20* Big Tickets. This year's report is currently available for purchase and will be released on Wednesday. Teddy includes in-depth written analysis on all of plays.

20* Big Ticket: Carolina UNDER 8.5 Wins
Just about everything broke right for the Carolina Panthers last year on their way to a 12-4 season.  Following a 1-3 start, the Panthers reeled off 11 wins in their final 12 regular season games in large part thanks to a 5-0 mark in games decided by four points or less. 

Make no mistake about it – the Panthers were every bit as lucky as they were good during that extended winning run.  Head coach Ron Rivera was on the hot seat, but he saved his job thanks to a ‘Riverboat Ron’ mentality down the stretch of tight games, a strategy that offers no hope of long term success.

And the Panthers feasted largely on the weak, with

Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox

07.27.2015     08:42 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Chicago (Danks) at Boston (Kelly) -130 O/U 9
Recommendation: Under

Chicago put together an impressive four-game sweep of Cleveland which included outpitching the Indians’ top three arms: Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. Stellar pitching has been a trait of the the White Sox’s staff the past five games as they’ve thrown 37.1 innings and allowed just three runs for a 0.72 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Tonight’s starter, John Danks, began the run with six innings of shutout ball vs. St. Louis and it was the third time in his last five outings where he has thrown 6+ innings without allowing a run. Despite Boston’s offensive outburst last night, they’ve been dormant since the All-Star break scoring only 16 runs in their first nine games of the second half. That slump puts Danks in a pretty solid situation to keep them quiet here. His mound opponent in this one, Joe Kelly, has been below average in three of his last four starts but the lineup he faces tonight presents a good chance for one of his better performances. Chicago is still one of MLB’s worst offenses (.244 BA, .297 OBP) and they don’t pose Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Boston Red Sox Rob Veno

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's new offensive coordinators Part 2

07.27.2015     08:04 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in my Wiseguy Report, I wrote about a half dozen offensive coordinator changes in the NFL this past offseason.  This week, I’ll finish my analysis of the other half dozen offensive coordinator changes from around the league, with specific focus on how big of a change and how steep of a learning curve these offenses face.  Coordinators are listed in alphabetical order based on their new teams.

Kyle Shanahan, Atlanta Falcons - Shanahan’s dad was certainly a major factor in Kyle’s first few NFL coordinator jobs; none of which have been particularly successful.  Shanahan worked under Mike Shanahan protégé Gary Kubiak as OC in Houston in 2008-2009, and then worked under his dad for four years with the Redskins.  During that span, his team’s reached the playoffs only once – the ill-fated RG3 injury game against Seattle.  Last year’s debacle in Cleveland didn’t exactly bolster his Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

College Football Handicapping: Analyzing SEC Bye Weeks

07.24.2015     09:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
In the ultra-competitive SEC, a well or poorly placed bye week can have a big impact on a team's season. Your opponents' bye week can also play a factor back in 2010 we pointed out that Alabama really got the shaft with nearly its entire slate having a bye week before playing the Crimson Tide.

Lets take a look at the entire conference and analyze the potential impact of each squad's bye week.

Bye Week: October 24
Prior Game: at LSU
Upcoming Game: at Georgia
Analysis: Per usual, the Gators get a week off before the World's Largest Cocktail Party. It also breaks up a tough stretch of five straight league games, including three on the road. The bad news is Georgia also comes in off a bye.

Bye Week: October 10
Prior Game: vs. Eastern Kentucky
Upcoming Game: (Thu) vs. Auburn
Analysis: Cats with one of the earliest bye weeks in Read more

Tags: College Football SEC

College Football Handicapping: Texas A&M hires former LSU DC Chavis

07.23.2015     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Another high scoring, up-tempo team looking to shore up its defense with a new coordinator. Texas A&M ranked 104th nationally in yards per game allowed last season (450.8) so they decided to bring in former LSU DC John Chavis. The Aggies are projected to return seven defensive starters.

“You’ll see a different defense, a different philosophy,” Sumlin said, citing a more attacking style that will replace A&M’s read-and-react approach last season. “It’s been a great fit for him and for us. The buy-in has been great.”

“The scheme that John has brought in gives them the ability to get upfield. The tough part is, a lot of our linebackers, guys we project as starters, were not there in the spring [because of injuries]. We had a lot of key pieces that didn’t practice.”

Tags: College Football Texas A&M Aggies LSU Tigers SEC

College Football Gambling: Florida seeks more explosive offense under McElwain

07.21.2015     09:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Every bettor knows that Florida's offense has been lacking the last few seasons. In 2014, the Gators ranked 104th nationally in total yards. First-year head coach Jim McElwain will attempt to solve the unit's shortcomings by bringing in a new offense under OC Doug Nussmeier. Nussmeier had stints as OC at Washington, Alabama, and Michigan. While at Colorado State, the Rams' offense made huge strides under McElwain.

Total Offense (National Rank)
2014 - 480.9 ypg (19th)
2013 - 471.6 ypg (24th)
2012 - 339.0 ypg (102nd)

"We need to create explosive plays. Obviously we need to be able to change field position," McElwain said at SEC Media Days. "Some of that might be we’ll need to take chances in the special teams situations to maybe get a couple more possessions."

"The play calling from last year is totally different you know we were shotgun really all game," sophomore wide receiver Brandon Powell said at SEC Media Days. "But now this year, we’re shotgun,

Read more

Tags: College Football Florida Gators SEC

College Football Handicapping: Houston starts over with former Ohio State OC Herman

07.21.2015     09:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
After a 35-17 record under the watch of Kevin Sumlin, the Houston Cougars weren't satisfied with three years of slightly above average football under Tony Levine. They let Levin go and hired up-and-comer Tom Herman who spent the last three years as Ohio State's offensive coordinator. Herman gutted the coaching staff and brought in two very highly regarded coordinators in Major Applewhite (OC, Texas) and Todd Orlando (DC, Utah State). The Cougars return 16 starters and are the second pick (+175) in the ACC behind Memphis (+105).

Tags: College Football Houston Cougars AAC

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals

07.21.2015     09:00 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Cole) at Kansas City (Vargas) +105 O/U 7
Recommendation: Kansas City

Tonight’s marquee interleague matchup is the middle game of a three-game set between Pittsburgh and Kansas City. The Pirates look to secure the series win behind their ace Gerrit Cole while the Royals send Jason Vargas to the bump after a six-week layoff due to an elbow strain. Reports indicate that Vargas is good to go and has the benefit of one of the best bullpens in baseball should his pitch count be limited. Prior to his stint on the DL, Vargas had been very effective having allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of eight starts -- his two toughest outings came in April. The Pirates found life in last night’s offensive performance putting up 10 runs in the opening game win at Kauffman Stadium, something they desperately needed after getting swept by the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend. This is still a very all-or-nothing offense that sports one of the highest K-rates (23.4%) and lowest walk rates (6.9%) vs. lefties in the National League. Cole has posted some impressive numbers but takes a step up in class on the road against an AL offense that has Read more

Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Kansas City Royals Drew Martin

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's new offensive coordinators

07.20.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Much of the offseason media hype comes from the head coaching changes in the NFL, but savvy bettors know that coordinator changes are every bit as important.  In my Wiseguy Report, I’m beginning a multi-week overview of the new coordinators around the league starting on offense, focusing on how the new coordinators experience and philosophies are likely to affect their new team’s level of production.  Next week, I’ll finish off the OC changes and begin examining the defensive coordinator changes.  Coordinators are listed in alphabetical order based on their new teams.

Marc Trestman, Baltimore Ravens - Trestman crashed and burned during his short head coaching tenure with the Chicago Bears, unable to turn Jay Cutler into an elite level quarterback.  But Trestman’s reputation as a creative play caller and top tier quarterback guru hasn’t been affected by his failures in the Windy City.  Each of Baltimore’s last two offensive coordinators was a former head coach who got another head coaching job – Jim Caldwell and Gary Kubiak; something Trestman covets.  And while Chicago didn’t Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Chicago Bears Denver Broncos Jacksonville Jaguars Oakland Raiders Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox

07.08.2015     09:01 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Toronto (Hutchison) -145 at Chicago (Danks) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

The Toronto Blue Jays, as we know, have the ability to load their lineup with right-handed bats and thus they tend to hit lefties well. In fact, they own MLB's top marks vs. lefties in OBP (.359), SLG (.482), OPS (.841), and ISO (.187). John Danks has shown some serious splits this year: .225/.287/.363 vs. lefties and .313/.356/.545 vs. righties. Danks faced the Jays back in late May and surrendered six runs in five innings. He threw a gem last time out (10 days rest) vs. Baltimore (7 IP, 0 ERs) but back on regular rest, I expect Toronto to plate a handful of runs. Drew Hutchison has been all over the place this season with five starts of five or more runs and six starts of one or less. He mowed down the White Sox two months ago with a complete game shutout but since then he's struggled to the tune of a 5.40 ERA over seven starts and only once did he work past six innings. The White Sox offense is truly awful but you give them a shot tonight with Hutchison coming from the right side and a second look. The market's push toward the under likely weather related with temps in the Read more

Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Chicago White Sox OTTO Sports


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