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College Football Handicapping: Missouri starts from scratch with new OC

08.23.2016     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Interesting take on Missouri first-year offensive coordinator Josh Heupel who served at the same position at Oklahoma and Utah State. Note that Heupel was fired from OU after the 2014 season and the following year, the Sooners boasted one of the best offenses in the country though the upgrade from quarterback Travis Knight to Baker Mayfield was a big factor. Last season under Heupel, Utah State ranked 93rd nationally in total offense. He gets a fresh start in Columbia and has a lot of work to do after the Tigers ranked dead last in the SEC at 280.9 ypg of total offense.

“I knew Josh (Heupel) pretty well when I covered Oklahoma,” Haney said. “It just hadn’t gone well for him, whether it was at OU or the injury issues at Utah State. I just don’t know if he’s the guy you want trying to re-imagine that offense. If it does work out, it’s going to take quite a bit of time.”

Tags: College Football Missouri Tigers SEC

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Handicapping Part II

08.22.2016     09:04 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, in Part I of my Wiseguy Report on NFL Preseason Betting strategies, I listed a handful of key mantras for winning in August. Don’t confuse a team’s regular season capabilities with their preseason goals.  Bet on teams in August that have a battle for their starting QB spot.  Know your coaches and their track records in various roles (and in various weeks).  And bet information, not opinions. 

All of those stand as solid mainstream advice; the stuff the markets are paying attention to.  This week, in Part II — preseason advanced handicapping methods —  I’m going to write about the things that the markets don’t pay enough attention to...but they probably should!

Let me start with a bold statement: "3" is not the most important key number when it comes to betting in the NFL reason.  Neither is "7".  No, the most important pointspread number in August is the number "1."  Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves

08.17.2016     09:44 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin blog entry.
Minnesota (Gibson) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz)
Recommendation: Atlanta -115 5-inning

Hard throwing 24-year-old Mike Foltynewicz takes the hill for the Braves -- only his second home start over his last five outings. The schedule of late hasn't been friendly with road tilts at St. Louis, Washington, Colorado, and Minnesota. His lone home start came against Pittsburgh who grades out as an above average NL offense. Those five outings caused his ERA to jump from 3.70 to 4.50. A return to Turner Field should yield better results as he shows a respectable 3.71 ERA and .186 BAA at home. Folty has occasionally allowed his emotions to get the best of him, but from a stuff standpoint, he has shown the ability to successfully navigate most MLB lineups.

Kyle Gibson will start for the Twins on the heels of three shaky outings. After a solid July that saw him post a 3.69 ERA in five starts, Gibson has a 7.98 ERA in three August outings. The Braves lineup is currently sporting a .748 team OPS over the last 30 days and should benefit from the call up of top prospect Dansby Swanson. And while the Braves have the reputation of being one of the worst Read more

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Atlanta Braves Drew Martin

NFL Preseason Gambling: San Francisco shows flashes of Kelly's up-tempo offense

08.16.2016     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article recapping San Francisco's Week 1 preseason game vs. Houston. In the first half, the 49ers ran 50 plays for 302 total yards. Things however bogged down significantly in the second half as San Fran failed to score and the game went under the total of 38.5.

"Chip doesn’t really share the science behind it, we just go out and try to execute as quickly as we possibly can," McDonald said. "It opens things up for the offense and that’s really the value of his offense. I thought we executed really well. There were a couple of really bad things turnover-wise, which was an ugly part of the game that really set us back. In terms of tempo, I thought we did well.

“When you look at ballgames in the last year, we were 52 total (plays) throughout the whole four quarters. Yeah, it’s really fun. I knew this offense, going into the first preseason game, would open things up. It was just fun to get out there and let loose and wear the defense down.”

Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Handicapping Part I

08.15.2016     02:03 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Week 1 of the 2016 NFL Preseason is in the books, with underdog bettors showing a modest profit through the weekend’s action.  Non-bettors always seem shocked when I talk about betting (and beating) the preseason.  How can you bet on exhibition games?  I don’t even know the guys on the field in the second half.  Boy, you really must be a degenerate gambler if you’re betting on NFL Preseason.

That couldn’t be further from the truth.  A sharp bettor’s mantra is fairly simple and nearly universal: Bet when you have an edge.  Pass when you don’t.  That holds for regular season NFL and it holds for preseason NFL as well.  And there are no shortage of edges to find when it comes to betting August football. 

In this two part column, I’ll illustrate the strategies that wiseguys use to attack preseason football.  In Part 1 (below), I’ll outline the basic market forces that create preseason pointspreads and show Preseason Handicapping 101 methods to beat those pointspreads.  In Part 2 next week, I’ll take a Deep Dive into some Advanced Betting Strategies for Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

College Football Handicapping: Michigan defense expected to apply constant pressure

08.15.2016     08:23 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Michigan's first-year defensive coordinator Don Brown is noted for being one of the most blitz-happy coaches in college football. Brown's Boston College defense ranked second nationally with 114 tackles for loss in 2015. Last year, the Wolverines ranked fifth in the Big Ten in tackles for loss (88) and sacks (32).

“I said ‘You know, Coach, I’m probably (bringing pressure) 65 percent (of the time).’ And he goes. ‘Nah, I hear 85.’ I think he knew what he was looking for.”

“Dr. Blitz knows what he’s doing, man. That’s what he’s great at. That’s what he hangs his hat on and that’s what we’re going to do. And I’m pretty sure everyone knows it.”

Tags: College Football Michigan Wolverines Big Ten

College Football Gambling: Texas A&M wants to be run-first under new OC

08.15.2016     07:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Some good quotes from first-year Texas A&M offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone and his quarterbacks about what to expect from this year's offense. Running the football frequently and effectively looks to be the top priority.


“We’d be in scrimmages in the spring and he’d come into our meeting room and say, ‘Alright guys, we’re going to go about 30/70 in terms of throwing the ball vs. running the ball. I know you guys want to throw the ball and air it out for the fans but we’re going to run the ball on pretty much every opportunity we get just so we can go ahead and establish that toughness and build that foundation for our team going forward. That’s what we want to be known for.’

“He’s been saying, everywhere he’s gone, he’s been able to establish that run game. We want to be known not as a spread team that can throw the ball around but as that spread team that can run it right up your throat throughout the entire game and especially in the fourth

Read more

Tags: College Football Texas A&M Aggies SEC

NFL Preseason Free Betting Pick: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams

08.13.2016     07:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Dallas at Los Angeles -5 O/U 36
Recommendation: Los Angeles

If you’ve watched preseason games at the Edward Jones Dome in St Louis in recent years, you’ve probably noticed the lethargic crowds in a half-filled stadium.  That won’t be the case on Saturday night in LA, where 90,000 fans are expected to watch their home debut; a rare preseason setting where the energy for the home team is likely to be palpable.

Rams head coach Jeff Fisher isn’t taking this preseason home opener lightly.  After becoming the first NFL coach in 20 years to keep his job following four consecutive losing seasons, Fisher knows that there’s a ton of pressure to achieve in his first year in LA.  His quote: “(We’re not going) 7-9 or 8-8 or 9-7, OK? Or 10-6 for that matter. This team’s too talented. I am not going to settle for that, OK? I know what I am doing.”

Of course, coach-speak can be overrated in August, but there’s no question that LA has expectations this August.  Dallas does not.  The Cowboys lost their first two preseason games last year by a combined 40-13 Read more

Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Los Angeles Rams Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Philadelphia first-year head coach Peterson ready for debut

08.11.2016     08:09 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article on Philadelphia's current status heading into tonight's preseason opener against Tampa Bay. The Eagles are dealing with a slew of injuries. The first and second string will play the first half. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz is expected to play the third quarter. And first-year head coach Doug Peterson will call "scripted plays" to start the first and second halves. Philly is currently -4 home favorites with a total of 37.

"Just kind of keyed up for it and just looking forward [to it]," Pederson said. "There are a lot of things that have to go on between now and then with the planning and scheduling. Just sort of the detailing, even with the players, kind of just managing them. But at the same time, I know personally, it might be a restless night."

Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Denver's Sanchez to start Thursday vs. Chicago

08.09.2016     09:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Denver Broncos are listing Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian as "co-starters" even though Siemian has never attempted a pass in a regular season game. Sanchez however will get the start for Thursday's preseason opener at Chicago. He's expected to play the entire first quarter followed by Siemian in the second. With only three quarterbacks currently on the roster, expect to see plenty of rookie Paxton Lynch in the second half.

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Chicago Bears


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