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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors ready for Super Bowl XLIX

01.26.2015     10:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
It’s Super Bowl time again.  I use this line every year because it’s true – this IS the moral equivalent of Christmas Day for many sports bettors.  Yet, much like last year, many of the professional full time bettors that I know are rather disappointed with the proposition betting opportunities for Super Bowl XLIX – there’s simply not much low hanging fruit.  The biggest and best sportsbooks (market leaders both here in Vegas and offshore) have learned from previous mistakes.  Weak numbers do NOT abound in 2015.

Let me start with the game itself.  The Super Bowl itself has been an underdog bettor’s paradise in recent years.   The Seahawks were underdogs at kickoff last year in their blowout win over the Broncos. The Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2013, as the underdog, beating the favored 49ers.  The Giants won the year before as an underdog; knocking off the Patriots.  In 2010, the Saints won straight up as a dog over Peyton Manning and the Colts.  In 2009, the Cardinals covered the spread in a tight loss to the Steelers.  In 2008, the Gia nts beat the favored 18-0 Patriots Read more

Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLIX Teddy Covers Las Vegas

Are you sure legalized sports betting in the U.S. is ideal?

01.26.2015     08:39 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Do you think that point shaving occurs in college basketball? We'd be foolish to say no despite oddmakers' ability to police irregular betting patterns and more importantly, how difficult it is to keep things a secret in the "information age." Here we have a study that concludes that over the span of 16 years, 1 in 100 games was fixed. The profile, which seems somewhat arbitrary, claims favorites of 12 or more have shown a "unique" ability to fall just short of covering the spread. This of course is the most logical way to fix games; a favorite wins, but not by "too much." Studies like these, while flawed, are initially created to be "pro gambling" -- if we legalize it, point shaving will disappear. But we know better than that. Using the phrase "point shaving" does nothing more than provide the NFL and friends a reason to bring up every single sports bribery case that has ever occurred. It's regulated in the UK and there is a soccer scandal every other week! 

The other problem is outsiders assume that Read more

College Basketball Betting Free Play: UCLA Bruins at Oregon State Beavers

01.22.2015     10:31 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
UCLA at Oregon State -1 O/U 123.5
Recommendation: Oregon State

Oregon State has absolutely dominated on their home floor all season long, a perfect 10-0 SU and 9-0 ATS.  That includes an outright upset as 12.5 point underdogs against mighty Arizona in their last game on this floor.  The Beavers have beaten the Bruins SU and ATS on each of UCLA’s last two visits to Corvallis as part of a 5-0 ATS run against UCLA, consistently covering numbers against better Bruins teams than the one they’ll face tonight.

Oregon State first year head coach Wayne Tinkle has brought his ‘defense first’ mentality from his tenure at Montana, and his players are buying in to his ‘slow the pace and defend every possession’ philosophy.  The Beavers currently rank behind only mighty Arizona in PAC-12 defensive efficiency, and they lead the conference in defending the three point line, holding foes under 28% from beyond the arc.

Three of UCLA’s top four scorers – Bryce Alford, Norman Powell and Isaac Hamilton – are guards.  That’s bad news against the Beavers stellar guard duo of Read more

Tags: College Basketball UCLA Bruins Oregon State Beavers Teddy Covers

A perfect match: Gambling and the Super Bowl

01.20.2015     08:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Publicly, the NFL is among one of the staunchest opponents of legalized gambling. Former commissioner Paul Tagliabue and current commissioner Roger Goodell were instrumental in getting the anti gaming ‘Illegal Internet Gambling Prohibition Act’ attached to the Port Security Bill. The NFL has taken this stance despite the fact that its enormous popularity is, in no small part, due to the prevalence of betting on games.

The hypocrisy of the NFL in regards to betting is almost laughable. The facts, as you will see, clearly show that the league was founded by gamblers for gamblers. From the NFL’s first television appearance in 1939 through the current TV deal that pumps more than three billion dollars per year into the league coffers, the NFL’s popularity rests upon the shoulders of those who wager on the outcome of the games.

Here in the 21st century, the NFL is the most popular and profitable sport in the. NFL owners are among the richest men in the world; franchises are bought and sold for more than half a billion dollars. However, the league’s humble origins were anything but the extravagant bonanza that is the NFL today. Read more

Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLIX Teddy Covers

College Basketball Betting: Michigan loses leading scorer LeVert

01.20.2015     08:23 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Michigan will be without its best offensive player, Caris LeVert (foot), for the remainder of the season. A projected first round draft pick, LeVert led the Wolverines in scoring, possessions used, shots, assist rate, and steals rate. He's also one of the few upperclassmen in UM's regular rotation. Tonight' opponent, Rutgers, will be favored for just the second time in Big Ten play. The Scarlet Knights were laying -3 vs. Northwestern and lost 51-47.

Tags: College Basketball Michigan Wolverines Rutgers Scarlet Knights Big Ten

College Basketball Handicapping: LSU trying to be less schizophrenic

01.20.2015     07:09 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
LSU is one of the more talented teams in the SEC but its style -- fast and loose -- lends itself to wild swings and crazy finishes. They lost to Missouri in overtime, nearly blew multiple 8-point leads in a double OT win at Georgia, won at Ole Miss by four, and blew a 13-point lead against Texas A&M. Heading into tonight's game at Florida, the Tigers are trying to play a more consistent brand of basketball.

“I don’t think it’s tough. I believe we are a good half-court team,” Mickey said after the Texas A&M game. “We can either do half court or can get out and push the ball. We just had some bad shot selection at the end of the game. We didn’t execute our plays like we should have, but I definitely feel that we can be a great half-court team and a great open-court team.”

Tags: College Basketball LSU Tigers Florida Gators

NHL Handicapper Free Play: Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs

01.19.2015     08:46 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Carolina at Toronto -145 O/U 5.5
Recommendation: Under

The Toronto Maple Leafs return to their home ice tonight after an abysmal winless four-game road trip that saw them manage just one goal.  Needless to say, all four games went under the total.  It's been a struggle for the Leafs the second half of the season as they've now lost seven of their last eight games with more than two goals just once during that span. The Carolina Hurricanes come into tonight's game playing good hockey with little to show for it.  The effort has been there from a team that is lacking talent and depth, but it unfortunately hasn't translated into many wins.  The Canes have killed 33 straight opponent power plays and that will only add to the defensive matchup we have tonight.  Cam Ward is likely to be back in net tonight and he has owned the Leafs with a 1.86 GAA the last eight meetings.  Both teams are clear “under” teams at this point and we have the luxury of grabbing 5.5 with only a moderate amount of juice.

Tags: NFL Carolina Hurricanes Toronto Maple Leafs Sammy P

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NBA Eastern Conference Betting News and Notes

01.19.2015     07:45 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
There’s only one meaningful game remaining in the 2014 football season.  Meanwhile, the NBA has reached the halfway point of the 2014-15 campaign without much fanfare.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll be focusing on NBA Notes and Quotes from three pointspread outliers from the Eastern Conference.  How can we make money off these teams as they morph from contenders to pretenders or vice versa?  Read on to find out!

The Atlanta Hawks have been the single most under-reported story of the current NBA season, by a fairly wide margin.  Make no mistake about it – right now, the Hawks are the best team in the Eastern Conference and it’s not even close!  And, as a smaller market team without marquee superstars, Atlanta continues to retain their pointspread value; still very much a bet-on team two full months after their hot streak started!

Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer was a longtime Greg Popovich assistant in San Antonio, and his team is drawing comparisons to the Spurs on a nightly basis.  Budenholzer’s squad relies, like the defending champs, on ball movement and depth.  The Hawks lead Read more

Tags: NBA Atanta Hawks Chicago Bulls New York Knicks Teddy Covers

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Providence Friars at Creighton Blue Jays

01.17.2015     09:10 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Providence at Creighton -2 O/U 132
Recommendation: Under

Providence head coach Ed Cooley has always preached defense first and when the Friars are at their best, the stop unit grades out as above average. But the problem has been consistency: guard well for two games and then lay an egg. Earlier this season, Providence allowed 75 to Marquette and bounced back with back-to-back strong defensive showings against Butler and Georgetown. Last time out, the Friars allowed 83 to St. John's, including 10-of-17 from 3-point land. I would expect a far better showing against Creighton who through five Big East games has really struggled to score (0.96 ppp). The Blue Jays (0-5 vs. Big East) have had some game efforts of late with one-point losses to Seton Hall and Marquette. Considering what they lost from last year's team and the competitiveness of the Big East, it's not shocking to see them struggle. Their league games have all been fairly slow in terms of pace including the first meeting vs. Providence in which the Friars won 65-53 (63 possessions). Should be a competitive game which leaves the door open for a late second half lull. With the total currently Read more

Tags: College Basketball Providence Friars Creighton Blue Jays Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting: South Carolina looks to bounce back after 0-2 SEC start

01.13.2015     01:37 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article find by Sportsmemo posting forum member 'TarHeel.' After starting 0-2 in SEC play, South Carolina's Frank Martin held a team meeting to get things straight. Amazingly, no one got hurt. The Gamecocks scored non-conference wins over Oklahoma State and Iowa State but lost to Florida and Ole Miss last week. They are currently 4-point home chalk for tonight's game vs. Alabama.

“Obviously we didn’t have a very good week last week,” Martin said. “We need to work our tails off to get our mind in a place that allows our team to play through the identity that we worked so hard to create before the past seven days. That’s what our whole objective has been over the last 48 hours. It’s not the winning and losing that’s the problem, it was our mindset last week. I just told the team, let’s hit the reset button.”

“Something wasn’t clicking with us. The program as a whole, we sat down and talked to each other as a team and we decided whatever it was we Read more

Tags: College Basketball South Carolina Gamecocks Alabama Crimson Tide


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