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September

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 2 Betting Recap

09.15.2014     07:18 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
My September NFL betting mantra is relatively simple.  It can be stated in one sentence: “Bet on good teams, and bet against bad teams.”   This strategy tends to be at its best  very early in the season, before the betting markets catch up to how good or how bad teams actually are compared to last year. 

That strategy did not fare well this past weekend for two reasons – many of the good teams played poorly and a good handful of the bad teams stepped up.  Of the seven top teams in my power ratings, only two managed to cover the pointspread on Sunday (Cincinnati and New England).  Seattle, New Orleans and San Francisco all lost SU as favorites.  Denver won, by not my enough of a margin to cover the number.  And Green Bay pushed against the closing number but lost for anyone who bet the Packers throughout the course of the week.

On the other end of the spectrum, many of the bottom teams in my power ratings stepped up and played a good game.  The worst two teams in the league – Jacksonville and Oakland, according to my numbers – are both 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS.  Other weak teams like the Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers

09.10.2014     02:25 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Seattle at San Diego
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Seattle -5 O/U 44.5
CRIS Current: Seattle -6 O/U 44
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Seattle

The recent history of defending Super Bowl Champions has not been a good one.  No team since the New England Patriots following their 2003 Super Bowl title has even won a single playoff game the following season. The last two defending champs – the Giants and Ravens – failed to make the playoffs the year after their title.

But Seattle is a different animal compared to recent Super Bowl champs.  Three things make the Seahawks different.  First, their coaching staff didn’t get raided this past offseason, as they return both coordinators.  The historical norm is that Super Bowl winning teams tend to lose some of their coaching talent in the offseason, but there’s full continuity for the Read more


Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks San Diego Chargers Teddy Covers




NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public supports Seahawks and OVER

09.04.2014     02:47 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the consensus bets for tonight’s NFL regular season opener between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDE
55.0% - Seattle -5.5

TOTAL
68.6% - OVER 46.5

MONEYLINE
59.8% - Green Bay +210

 

 



Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks




NFL Preseason Handicapping: Seattle starters to play into third quarter vs. Chicago

08.22.2014     12:13 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago at Seattle -7 O/U 45

The Seattle Seahawks look to be all business for tonight's preseason game vs. Chicago. Pete Carroll said the starters will play into the third quarter. Tarvaris Jackson will follow Russell Wilson and if time permits, Terrell Pryor will take some snaps. Seattle is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in the third game of the preseason under Carroll. The Seahawks opened -6.5 but were quickly bet to -7 with a few Las Vegas sportsbooks currently dealing -7.5.



Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Chicago Bears




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL Preseason Week 1

08.11.2014     12:46 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
From 2008 through 2013, Overs ruled the roost when it came to betting preseason football, with more Overs than Unders cashing in every single season.  The average points scored in August NFL games increased every year during that span, from 35.3 points per game in 2008 up to 41.2 points per game last year; a preseason that saw Overs cash at nearly a 60% clip. 

An increase of six points per game over a five year span is absolutely going to attract some betting market attention.  The quants who rule the markets aren’t going to let that type of information slip by without a significant reaction!

In particular, the lowest totals have been the best Over bets during this run of relatively high scoring affairs.  Totals of 36.5 or less have been enormous profit makers for Over bettors.  From 2009 through 2013, games totaled at 36.5 or less went Over at a 93-57 (62%) clip.  Games totaled at 37 or higher were essentially split 50-50 between Over cashes and Under cashes – all the profits came from betting lower totals Over.

So what happened in Week 1 this year?  A huge run of Unders!  Including the Hall of Fame Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Season Over/Under Win "morphers"

06.23.2014     08:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the seven NFC teams that are projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014 based on the current market numbers for their season win totals.  I intended to write Part II of the article last week, talking about the four AFC teams that are also projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014, but I got derailed by the College Football Game of the Year openers at the Golden Nugget; a “must report” event.  So, let’s just call it better late than never!

The markets are telling us to expect more of the same from 12 of the 16 AFC teams.  What makes these four squads different? My goal here is to focus on why these particular teams are expected to improve or decline significantly compared to last year.  I’ll do that by looking at how the broader market conditions affect the numbers.  What do the markets fixate upon?  What do they largely ignore?  Read on to find out. 

Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5 in 2013, O/U 8 wins in 2014
Last year in this space, I called the Chiefs coming off a truly dismal 2-14 campaign “the poster child for Read more


Tags: NFL AFC Kansas City Chiefs Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals Houston Texas Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC Season Over/Under Win "morphers"

06.09.2014     08:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve been waiting patiently for the NFL Season Wins market to mature, but that doesn’t happen quickly here in June.  Most of the notable offshores have not posted Over/Under win totals yet, leaving Vegas as the only active market right now. As a result, all the numbers used in this article are from right here in Sin City.

Of the 32 NFL teams, only 11 have Over/Under win totals that are different from their final record last year by two games or more.  In other words, the markets are telling us to expect ‘more of the same’ from 21 of the 32 teams in the league.

In my Vegas Wiseguy Report article over the next two weeks, I’m going to focus on those eleven teams that are expected to morph positively or negatively from last year.  The goal of this discussion is to focus on why these particular teams are expected to improve or decline significantly compared to last year.  I’ll do that by looking at how the broader market conditions affect the numbers.  What do the markets fixate upon?  What do they largely ignore?  Read on to find out.

This week’s focus will be on the seven NFC Read more


Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Carolina Panthers Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arizona Cardinals Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason NFC Betting News and Notes

06.02.2014     10:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote that “the NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!”

“My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.”

Last week, I focused on the 16 teams from the AFC.  In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 NFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  And this week, I’ll do my absolute best to avoid egregious errors like my ‘San Diego didn’t make the 2013 playoffs’ Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason AFC Betting News and Notes

05.26.2014     08:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The LVH Superbook posted their NFL Season Win totals last weekend.  Cantor sportsbooks (CG Technology) have had season win totals posted for months.  Many other books both here in Vegas and offshore have posted season win totals, Week 1 pointspreads and Game of the Year pointspreads.  Most books that haven’t posted NFL numbers yet plan to do so in the near future.  The NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!

My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.

In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 AFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  I’ll offer similar Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas AFC




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Draft has little impact on betting markets

05.12.2014     07:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL draft is a thing of beauty for those who appreciate hype without substance.   After months of hype – literally, months of it, more hype than we see for any Super Bowl – the first round of the NFL draft attracted 32 million viewers to the coverage on ESPN and the NFL Network. 

That’s a massive 28 percent increase over the 25 million that watched the draft in 2013.  On digital media platforms, the draft drew more than 14 million visits, a 54 percent increase from 2013.  And I’m not convinced the ratings gold were all the result of Johnny Manziel‘s crossover publicity.  Fans and bettors alike seem to think that the draft is important.

The pre-draft hype is a series of smokescreens, with GM’s and personnel directors around the league unwilling to divulge any meaningful information to media types and those who communicate with media types.  We see mock drafts for weeks leading up to the real draft, with the likes of Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, Pete Prisco and Mike Mayock offering their informed predictions. 

And yet despite multiple revisions of those mock drafts – even Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 18, 2014 04:40 AM.