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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Week 1 lines and the upcoming draft
04.22.2013 08:15 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
It’s time to give Jay Kornegay and his staff at the LVH Superbook credit once again for being the first to market here in Las Vegas with Week 1 NFL numbers. Don’t tell me Kornegay wasn’t ready! The NFL announced the 2013 schedule last Thursday evening, and the LVH had their sides and totals posted by noon on Friday. For an older, non-strip property that lacks a marque signature attraction, Kornegay’s aggressive bookmaking tactics have, quite frankly, allowed the LVH to remain relevant in a difficult era for many similar aging off-strip casinos.
When those Week 1 pointspreads were posted, bettors didn’t flock to the betting windows to lock up their money until September with a wager. In fact, the betting marketplace gave a collective yawn, with only a handful of big bets written over the weekend on sides or totals. Why the lack of initial movement? Two reasons!
First, Jay put up good numbers. There were no obvious “mistake” lines causing a flurry of betting activity. And secondly – probably most importantly – we haven’t seen competing books put up alternate
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Teddy Covers
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Big XII will review missed calls in Iowa State-Kansas fiasco
02.26.2013 07:52 AM
Printer Friendly
Good news. Actually, it isn't good news but rather a painful reminder for those who wagered on Iowa State. The Big XII is going to
review
some of the absolutely horrific calls/no calls in last night's ISU-KU debacle. Sure could use one of those sportsbook marketing promotions where they step in and refund bets à la
Seattle-Green Bay
.
"We will handle the situation and approach the teams appropriately," said Shaw. "We review every play and take the appropriate action."
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Super Bowl XLVII Gambling: Let's Talk About the 49ers' Defense
02.02.2013 09:21 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
I’m starting to hear a lot of chatter about how San Francisco’s defense is going to be the deciding factor in Sunday’s Super Bowl meeting with the Baltimore Ravens. While the team certainly has a top-notch defense, it may not be quite as dominating as you were thinking.
It’s easy to remember the highlights from the past season…where the Niners embarrassed teams like the Jets, Bills, and even the Bears in a big TV game. But, when facing elite offenses, it’s been a slightly different story.
Here’s what opposing offenses from PLAYOFF teams did against San Francisco’s defense this season starting with their season opener at Green Bay, and ending with their NFC Championship win over Atlanta. If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored or allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. The average this year was around 13 per offense per game. Note that the chart below deletes non-offensive scoring (for example...Green Bay had a
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NFL Handicapping: Why The Atlanta Falcons are +4
01.17.2013 07:35 AM
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Stat Intelligence
There’s a growing chorus in the handicapping/betting world that the line has over-adjusted in Sunday’s San Francisco/Atlanta matchup for the NFC Championship…with little apparent justification for the current number of San Francisco -4.
Let’s review a few keys.
*Sharps aren’t betting the 49ers at -4. But, they sure loved them at a field goal or less. It’s hard to know for sure from the outside how much of the moves beyond the three can be linked to sharp sentiment or square sentiment (the public). What’s clear is that sharps weren’t thinking the line should be pick-em or -1. Sharps had the 49ers at least 6 or 6.5 points better on a neutral field. Sharps stopped betting the Niners at a number that represented 7 points better on a neutral field.
*The advanced analytic stuff I’ve seen around the web supports that passion at an affordable price. Measures are showing that San Francisco has a much better offense when you adjust for
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NFL Gambling News: Seattle Seahawks forced to replace starting kicker
01.09.2013 11:48 AM
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Seattle
at
Atlanta
-2.5 O/U 46
Not cause for concern but certainly worth noting that Seattle's kicker, Steven Hauschka, was placed on
injured reserve
. The Seahawks signed Ryan Longwell who has yet to play this season. Longwell played for Minnesota last year but was released after hitting a mediocre 78.6%. Longwell does however have a decent track record from 50 yards and beyond, hitting 10 of his last 11 dating back to 2008-09. That was one of the knocks on Hauschka who hit only 1-of-4 from that distance this season.
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Comparing Football Outsiders' and Pinnacle's Conference and Super Bowl XLVII Odds
01.08.2013 06:35 AM
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The chart below compares the current conference and Super Bowl odds from
Football Outsiders
and Pinnacle. Most of the odds are similar with Seattle to win the NFL having the largest discrepancy – 30% according to Football Outsiders, 21.4% (+367) according to Pinnacle.
NFL Conference and Super Bowl XLVII Odds
Team
FO Conference
Pinny Conference
FO Super Bowl
Pinny Super Bowl
Denver
41.40%
+107 (48.3%)
24.30%
+266 (27.3%)
New England
40.90%
+144 (40.9%)
23.60%
+321 (23.7%)
Seattle
30.00%
+367 (21.4%)
15.60%
+680 (12.8%)
San Francisco
31.50%
+198 (33.5%)
15.20%
+541 (15.6%)
Green Bay
16.70%
+332 (23.1%)
7.70%
+694 (12.5%)
Atlanta
21.80%
+246 (28.9%)
7.10%
+721 (12.1%)
Baltimore
9.90%
+1052 (8.6%)
3.90%
+1800 (5.2%)
Houston
7.80%
+991 (9.1%)
2.70%
+1800 (5.2%)
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the NFC's Final Four
01.07.2013 08:06 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl.
Click here for the AFC
. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.
It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21
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NFL Wild Card Handicapping: Line moves update
01.03.2013 12:25 PM
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A quick look at this weekend's NFL Wild Card line moves.
Cincinnati at Houston
CRIS Opener: Houston -5 O/U 44
CRIS Current: Houston -4.5 O/U 43.5
Early money came in on the Texans driving the line down to -4 but those were quickly bought up. The total has been bet down from and opener of 44 to as low as 43. A rematch of last year's Wild Card in which Houston won 31-10 as 4-point home favorites. The total in that game closed 38.
Minnesota at Green Bay
CRIS Opener: Green Bay -8 O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -8 O/U 46
Sportsbooks not scared to death by bettors teasing Green Bay below a field goal have been dealing -8 and -7.5 for much of the week. Pinnacle of course protecting themselves with -9.5 +115. The prevailing total is 46 with Greek dealing 46.5 and Grande 45.5. Weather expected to be decent; 25 degrees with a small chance of snow.
Indianapolis at Baltimore
CRIS Opener: Baltimore -6.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current: Baltimore -7 (-115) O/U 47
Earlier today, all of the 6.5's were taken out as Baltimore is now a touchdown favorite across the board.
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Teddy Covers' NFL Top 5 Hidden Pointspread Plays of the Year
12.31.2012 08:14 AM
Teddy Covers
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Last week, I made my end of the year
Top 7 Pointspread Plays of the Year for the NFL
; a look back at some of the wackiest and nerve-wracking ATS outcomes, regardless of which side you had. This week, I’m taking something of a different tack, writing about my Top 5 Hidden Pointspread Plays of the Year. These plays had massive repercussions – repercussions that were felt by the betting markets for weeks, even months after the games were played. What’s a “hidden” pointspread play? Read on to find out!
No. 5 – Week 12, Miami sack vs. Seattle
The Seahawks led throughout the second half, but a late Dolphins TD had the game tied 21-21 at the two minute warning. Seattle was driving, facing a first and ten at the Dolphins 40 yard line, needing only a few more yards to put them in position for a game winning field goal try from kicker Stephen Hauschka. But they lost yardage on their first down running attempt, then lost yardage again on a quick pass behind the line of scrimmage on second
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The NFL's Top 7 Pointspread Plays of the Year
12.27.2012 05:47 AM
Teddy Covers
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In my world, there’s nothing better than a ‘right side’ winner – no drama, no sweating; an easy ‘rocking chair’ cover. Of course, cashing nothing but ‘right side’ winners is MUCH easier said than done. In the real world, there are so many games that come down to a late, key play that determines the SU and/or ATS winner.
As the end of the NFL season approaches. I’ve gone back through my notes, looking at the some of the wackiest pointspread outcomes of the year – the really memorable ones. End of the year Top 10 lists are so passé, so I’ll call this my Top 7 Pointspread Plays of the Year. Let’s start the countdown with No. 7
No. 7 – Week 11, Green Bay Packers late field goal
Green Bay was a three-point road favorite at slumping Detroit, but they trailed for most of the game, and were behind by six points at the 2-minute warning. Lions’ bettors weren’t worried – a Green Bay touchdown, in theory, would only lead to a one-point, non-covering win. Aaron Rodgers threw for that touchdown on the very first play
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