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NFL Handicapping: So-so performances by 0-2 teams in Week 3

09.28.2015     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A quick look back at how the nine 0-2 teams performed in Week 3. The end result was 5-4 SU/ATS. All told, not one of the nine teams, including those who won and covered, really played all that well. Four teams remain winless heading into Week 4: Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, and New Orleans.

Indianapolis - Trailing 27-14 late in the third quarter, the Colts rallied back for the 35-33 win at Tennessee but failed to cover as -3 favorites.

Baltimore - Outgained by over a yard per play, the Ravens couldn't hold on to a 24-21 lead as Cincinnati punched in the game-winning touchdown with two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Big red flag as Andy Dalton threw for 383 yards and 12.0 yards per attempt.

Seattle - After tough back-to-back road games, the Seahawks cruised past Chicago 26-0. Note that it was a 6-0 game at halftime.

Detroit - The Lions couldn't run the football (28 yards, 1.5 ypc) or hang on to it (3 turnovers) in Sunday night's 24-12 loss to Denver.

Philadelphia - It wasn't pretty as the Eagles were outgained 4.3 ypp to 3.4 ypp in Sunday's Read more

Tags: NFL

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Power Ratings 1-32

09.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The NFL regular season starts on Thursday.  Here’s how I have the 32 teams ranked heading into the campaign, with a quick blurb each squad.

1. New England Patriots - With Tom Brady set to open the season as the starting quarterback, the defending champs are the team to beat, worthy of my #1 ranking heading into the regular season.

2. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle enjoyed the best yards-per-rush differential between offense and defense last year, but they’ve got significant offensive line question marks as they head to St Louis for Week 1.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers passing game was second to none in the NFL last year, but the loss of Jordy Nelson leaves Aaron Rodgers without his top target for the entire season.

4. Indianapolis Colts - Most elite contenders face a tougher than average schedule because they’ve got to face other contending teams.  Indy, however, plays only four games against playoff teams from last year.

5. Denver Broncos - Peyton Manning is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL by a wide margin, and he’s coming off a season where his arm strength noticeably declined down the Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Betting: Seattle's Carroll says starters need the work

08.28.2015     07:16 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said there will be no fear when it comes to playing time for his starters in Saturday's preseason tilt at San Diego.

"We will play some more plays this week and look forward to these guys coming out after halftime and playing and getting ready to play this season that's just around the corner," Carroll said.

"No," he said. "We manage our guys the way we do and we're fortunately in pretty good shape right now. These guys need to play. They need the play time. They've got to get ready. You can't hide from it, it's coming, it's right around the corner. They need to be fit and mentally right to play four quarters of football two weeks from now, so we've got to take this next step."

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks San Diego Chargers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Recap

08.24.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In the NFL Preseason, when coaches almost never play for a late game tie to force overtime, there’s an enormous difference between laying -1 and -2.5.  Games decided by final margins or 1 or 2 points are relatively rare once September rolls around.  In August, they are commonplace.   Three games were decided by a single point this past weekend, in Week 2 of the preseason, with the Bills beating the Browns 11-10, the Chiefs beating the Seahawks 14-13 and the Panthers beating the Dolphins 31-30.

Both Kansas City-Seattle and Carolina-Miami produced a win, loss or push based on betting skills, not handicapping skills, with lines on both games moving up throughout the course of the week.   In addition, the Patriots pulled off the comeback of the weekend to beat New Orleans 26-24, a two point margin.  Meanwhile, there was only one game finishing with a final margin of three points; the Chargers 22-19 win at Arizona. 

It was a similar story in Week 1, with more games finishing with 1 or 2 point final margins than games that were decided by exactly three points.   With two more weeks of these meaningless Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Kansas City starters could play entire first half vs. Seattle

08.21.2015     08:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here's the likely reason behind Week 2's biggest line move as Kansas City expects to play its starters "close to a half" against Seattle. The Chiefs opened a pick 'em but have since been bet up to a -3 home favorite.

Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Seattle Seahawks

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Recap

08.17.2015     08:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Week 1 of the NFL Preseason is behind us.  The NFL season win totals futures markets are already reacting to what we’ve seen, showing some modest movement off the successes and failures of the first and second string units.  We can expect that initial line movement to continue unabated if we see more of the same from those units in Week 2.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a quick tour around the NFL, specifically focusing on any misleading stats or under-the radar performances from the 16 games that we just saw.

Let’s start with a brief overview of the results.  It was a strong Week 1 for the betting favorites.  There were three games that closed right around pick ‘em with no chalk to speak of: KC at Arizona, Washington at Cleveland and Miami at Chicago.  Of the 13 games that closed with a legitimate favorite of at least -1 or higher here in Las Vegas, the favorites dominated to the tune of 10-3 ATS (counting Jacksonville -1.5 as a win in their two point victory over Pittsburgh).  All three underdogs that covered won the game in SU fashion (Carolina beat Buffalo, Green Bay won at New England and Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Free Betting Pick: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

08.14.2015     10:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Denver +5 at Seattle O/U 36.5
Recommendation: Denver

The betting markets are infatuated with Pete Carroll’s preseason track record in Seattle; installing the Seahawks as five point favorites against the Broncos.  And it’s easy to understand why the markets love Carroll in August, particularly playing at home.  They won their two home preseason games last year by 41-14 and 34-6 margins, won 40-10 and 22-6 in home preseason games in 2013, and won 27-17 and 21-3 in home preseason games in 2012.

But that’s all in the rear view mirror now – the conditions that existed in Seattle in recent years just don’t exist this year.  That makes the Seahawks a poor favorite for their 2015 preseason debut on Friday.   What has changed?  A LOT!

Fresh off back-2-back Super Bowl appearances, the Seahawks have nothing to prove in August.  Seattle has been one of the deepest teams in the league in recent seasons, giving them great depth in the second half of these preseason games.   That’s not the case anymore, with the Seahawks up against the salary cap – this is NOT a Read more

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Betting: Seattle Seahawks sit key players due to injury

08.14.2015     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Looks as if the Seattle Seahawks will sit a handful of key players -- including a majority of their secondary -- due to injury for tonight's preseason opener vs. Denver. Pete Carroll said those starters that will play will only see a few snaps including quarterback Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are currently -5 home favorites over the Broncos.

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos

NFL Preseason Handicapping:Broncos' veterans to see limited action vs. Seahawks

08.14.2015     06:49 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Denver Broncos are planning to sit a number of their veterans, including Peyton Manning, for tonight's preseason opener at Seattle. The Seahawks are currently -5 home chalk. 

"Obviously, we have some guys with some nicks that have missed some time that we have to make some decisions on. We have a few guys that we'll talked about that have a lot of birthdays, so we'll talk about them too," Kubiak said.

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part II

08.10.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2014 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple -- getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2015.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google ‘2015 NFL Strength of Schedule’ and you’ll find countless charts exactly like this one.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (.579)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (.563)
3. Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas


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