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NFL Gambling News: Can the Minnesota Vikings continue to cover pointspreads?

10.10.2016     11:29 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
From 2010-13, the Minnesota Vikings were a middling organization with only one playoff appearance (2012) and three very unmemorable seasons under former head coach Leslie Frazier. Following Frazier’s departure, the team went out and hired highly respected Cincinnati defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. The organization also selected quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in the first round of the 2014 draft. Bridgewater assumed the starting spot in Minnesota’s fourth game after Matt Cassel was placed on injured reserve with a broken foot. The Vikings took their lumps and finished the season an unassuming 7-9 but it was clear that Zimmer was a difference maker. In the NFL, straight up wins and losses are largely correlated to a team’s pointspread success. The fact the Minnesota won only seven games but posted a 10-6 against the spread record was for bettors, a positive sign.

The lumps of 2014 paid off in spade as Minnesota skyrocketed to an 11-5 record including the NFC North division crown the following year. What’s even more amazing is the rate in which this team covered numbers. The Vikings went 4-1 ATS in the preseason and 14-3 ATS in the regular season Read more

Tags: NFL Minnesota Vikings Ian Cameron

NFL Gambling: Seahawks and Packers top Week 2 SuperContest consensus plays

09.18.2016     08:16 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top five consensus picks for Week 2 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. SEATTLE -4.5 at Los Angeles
2. GREEN BAY -2.5 at Minnesota
3. JACKSONVILLE +3 at San Diego
4. KANSAS CITY +3 at Houston
5. CINCINNATI +3.5 at Pittsburgh

Least Picked Sunday side: Los Angeles +4.5

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Handicapping the NFL post-Week 1

09.12.2016     10:58 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Week 1 of the NFL season routinely tells lies.  The goal of any winning handicapper has to be figuring out which teams were lying in their Week 1 performances.

Look no further than last year for some excellent examples.  On opening day of the 2015 NFL season, the Tennessee Titans blew out Tampa Bay 42-14.  Marcus Mariota looked like a superstar, throwing four TD passes in his NFL debut and finishing the game with a perfect passer rating. 

If you bet the Titans the following week, you watched them lose outright by two touchdowns to the NFL’s worst team, Cleveland.   Mariota threw only five TD passes over the next four weeks before getting hurt.  Tennessee finished the season tied for the worst pointspread record in the NFL, cashing only three winning bets in their final 15 games.  The Titans lied to us in Week 1.

Remember when the Dolphins beat the Redskins, and covered as four point road favorites in Washington, thanks to a Jarvis Landry punt return touchdown in the fourth quarter.    Miami lost their next three games so badly that head coach Joe Philbin didn’t survive their bye Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks

09.11.2016     07:52 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Miami at Seattle
Sunday, 1 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Seattle -7 O/U 44
CRIS Current: Seattle -10.5 O/U 43.5
Recommendation: Miami

The Seahawks have been an elite team for the last five years of the Pete Carroll era.  But Carroll’s teams tend to pick up momentum as the season goes along, not right from the get-go on opening day.  The Seahawks have lost in straight up fashion on opening day three times in the last five years; twice as favorites.  Only once – their Thursday Night opener against Green Bay following their Super Bowl title – have they won on opening day by more than a touchdown.  The Seahawks are not a team to lay double digits with coming out of the gate in 2016.

The betting markets continue to look at Seattle as a team without weaknesses.  But one weakness has been very apparent if you’ve been paying attention to the Seahawks throughout the preseason – their offensive line.  Offensive line coach Tom Cable has been trying to cobble together a unit that won’t have a single starter playing the same position as Read more

Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Ranking all 32 NFL teams heading into Week 1

09.06.2016     08:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The NFL Preseason is in the rear view mirror, with Week 1 kicking off on Thursday as Carolina travels to Denver as -3 road favorites.  Here’s how I have all 32 teams ranked heading into the regular season.

1. Carolina Panthers  - Cam Newton and Carolina’s offense are poised to rank among the most potent attacks in the NFL.  Watch out for the Funchess/Benjamin WR duo!

2. Seattle Seahawks - Russell Wilson gave an MVP caliber performance in 2015, but his ability to repeat that effort could be stunted by the Seahawks offensive line woes.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers come out of camp with a full complement of healthy weapons for Aaron Rodgers, good news after Rodgers numbers took a big hit without Jordy Nelson last year.

4. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona returns just about every key player on both sides of the ball from a team that ranked among the NFL’s elite in 2015.

5. New England Patriots - If Tom Brady was at quarterback, this team would be ranked #1.  But with Jimmy Garappolo behind center, the Pats take a modest tumble in my rankings.

6. Kansas City Chiefs - Andy Reid’s Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Denver Broncos Teddy Covers

NFL Betting Preview Podcast 6-22-2016: Seattle Seahawks

06.22.2016     10:52 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy took a look at the Seattle Seahawks who finished last season 10-6 and lost to Carolina in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs.


Date: 6/22
Handicapper: Teddy Covers
Team: Seattle Seahawks
2015-16 Record: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U
Season O/U Wins: 10.5ov-140
Odds to Win NFC: +485
Odds to Win NFC West: -115
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +875
Week 1 Line: Seattle -8 vs. Miami

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the AFC South

06.20.2016     01:50 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll continue my summer series, breaking down one NFL division each week.  This week, it’s time to take an in-depth look at the four teams from the AFC South, with some very early leans regarding their expected improvement or decline in 2016.  As always, within the division, I’ll list the teams in alphabetical order (NOT in predicted order of finish).

The Houston Texans went 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS and 9-7 to the Over last year.  They won the AFC South for one reason and one reason only – Andrew Luck got hurt, allowing the Texans to dominate the rest of their division rivals with a 5-1 mark.  They only beat two teams with a winning record – Cinci on a bad Andy Dalton day, and the Jets, when New York was slumping midseason in the midst of a 1-4 stretch.  The Texans defense was clearly their strong point, finishing with the #3 stop unit in the NFL based on mainstream stats.  It is worth noting how healthy that defense was, losing only eleven games from their starters all season!

Houston’s 2016 schedule is a good notch or two tougher than it was last Read more

Tags: NFL Houston Texas Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee Titans Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the NFC West

06.13.2016     10:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I began my series of NFL Previews by taking an in-depth look at the AFC West.  This week, the focus shifts to the NFC West.  As always, I’ll present the teams in alphabetical order within their division.

The Arizona Cardinals went 13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS and 9-7 to the Over last year.  They finished +9 in turnovers; good for fourth best in the NFL.  Their mainstream stats were outstanding, finishing with the #1 offense and the #5 defense based on yardage figures.  This year, Bruce Arians squad is lined as a 9.5 win team with heavy juice to the Over.  Using the standard formula of 50 cents extra juice equating to a half a win in the marketplace, Arizona is effectively lined as a 10 win team for the upcoming 2016 campaign.

Arizona upgraded their roster in several key areas in the offseason.  Their defensive line should get a major boost with the addition of #1 pick DT Robert Nkemdiche from Ole Miss.  They acquired DE Chandler Jones Read more

Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early primer on betting Super Bowl 50

01.25.2016     08:53 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The Super Bowl 50 matchup is set.   In the end, second best didn’t cut it.  The team with the very best defense in the NFL this season – Denver – won a pair of tight home playoff games against banged up foes to return to the big game for the second time in three seasons.  The Broncos are set to face the team with the very best quarterback in the NFL this season – Carolina, with Cam Newton behind center; a Panthers team that finished with the best record in the league. 

The best quarterback vs. the best defense!  We saw this two years ago, when Peyton Manning set records with his play, but Manning tailed off down the stretch and the Seattle Seahawks elite defense controlled the flow right from the get-go in the biggest Super Bowl Blowout of the 21st century.

The irony here, of course, is that two years ago, Denver was here due to Peyton Manning, and they lost the Super Bowl to the league’s best defensive team.  Only two years later, Denver is here because THEY have the best defense in the NFL, facing off against an emerging yet elite dual threat quarterback.  That defense didn’t perform Read more

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers Super Bowl 50

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Conference Championship Preview

01.18.2016     09:37 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
March Madness has a lock on the Final Four terminology, but we’re down to the final four teams standing in the NFL Playoffs following a wild weekend of football.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a look at how the Final Four teams still standing this NFL season survived, and what their realistic chances of Super Bowl success are moving forward into the Conference Championship Games this coming weekend.

Denver was outgained by more than two full yards per PLAY against the Steelers.  It was not vintage Peyton Manning, to put it mildly: 37 pass attempts for 215 yards, with only two passes all afternoon gaining more than 15 yards.  If you were watching the game, you already know how many missed connections that Manning had with his receivers – no shortage of inaccurate passes and dropped balls.  With the exception of one explosive 34-yard run by CJ Anderson, Denver’s running game wasn’t much better.  Anderson and Ronnie Hillman’s other 30 carries combined for just 76 yards.

But the Broncos avoided mistakes, playing turnover free football; the first time as a starter all season in which Manning Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Denver Broncos Arizona Cardinas Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers


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