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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Updating NFL Regular Season O/U Wins

11.16.2015     08:05 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I write a lot about NFL Win Totals and NFL Divisional Odds throughout the summer months; my preferred methodology for discussing the upcoming season.  As we approach Thanksgiving, with Week 10 in the books and the final bye weeks coming up this weekend, it’s a good opportunity to take a look at how those wagers are faring heading into the homestretch of the 2015 campaign.

The very first NFL season win bets cashed this past weekend.  Dallas fell to 2-7, ensuring that the Cowboys cannot go Over their 9.5 game win total.  Carolina improved to 9-0, cashing their Over 8.5 win total from last summer.  Seattle fell to 4-5.  Even if the Seahawks win all of their remaining games, they can do no better than push their 11 game win total. 

It’s a similar story with Baltimore, sitting at 2-7 now, with a win total of 9 from last summer.  A 7-0 Ravens run to end the season would only produce a push for Over bettors. And while I write this column before Monday Night Football kicks off, the Bengals are in prime position to cash their Over 8.5 win total, 8-0 now and sitting as double digit favorites against the Texans.

A Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's five unbeatens

10.26.2015     07:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re nearing the halfway point of the NFL season and five teams still remain undefeated; an unusually high number of perfect teams at this stage of the campaign.  There’s not much debate with the betting community about how to rank the five remaining unbeatens.  The New England Patriots are power rated at least a field goal higher than any other team in the league right now.  Behind the Pats come the Green Bay Packers, followed closely by the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Denver Broncos rank #4 on this list; with Peyton Manning’s ongoing struggles carrying more weight than the Broncos elite level defensive stats in the current betting markets.  Last on the list is the Carolina Panthers, still searching for market respect even after their win and cover against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football.

My goal of this week’s Wiseguy Report is to break down these five teams in terms of my probability of them producing a profit over the final ten weeks of the regular season.  Is it possible to make money with ANY of these teams moving forward, or have the betting markets eclipsed any semblance of future value?  Read on to find Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: A look back and NFL Week 6

10.19.2015     08:29 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Week 6 of the NFL is in the rear view mirror as the 2015 regular season approaches the halfway point.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll look to answer three questions that stood out to me following Sunday’s action.

How good are the Jets? 
In the midst of a season where there don’t appear to be a whole host of elite Super Bowl contenders, the Jets 4-1 start has bettors and pundits taking notice.  The Patriots, Bengals and Packers are the clear Top 3 teams in any reasonable set of NFL power ratings.  There’s a legitimate argument to be made that the Jets could be #4 on that list, ahead of or equal to other hot start teams like the Cardinals, Falcons or Panthers.

The Jets won only four games last year; their fourth consecutive non-winning season.  With Todd Bowles as the new head coach, New York was lined as a 7.5 win team here in 2015 in the offseason betting markets.  The training camp injury to Geno Smith left Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback; a switch that the betting markets didn’t react to very much.  But Fitzpatrick has been a difference maker for New Read more

Tags: NFL New York Jets Miami Dolphins Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Preview: Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

10.13.2015     08:25 AM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith blog entry.
Carolina at Seattle
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Seattle -6.5 O/U 41.5
CRIS Current: Seattle -6.5 O/U 41
Recommendation: Carolina

One of the last unbeaten teams in the NFL, the Carolina Panthers have a huge task this week as they head out west to take on the Seattle (2-3) in a conference rematch of last year's Divisional Playoff game, won by Seahawks, 31-17. Seattle is coming off a tough overtime road loss last Sunday to another unbeaten club in the Cincinnati Bengals. Seattle yielded 419 yards of total offense in the 27-24 defeat, with 331 of those yards coming through the air. Running back Marshawn Lynch has missed the last two games and is questionable for this game. His production has been sorely missed with the bulk of the carries going to Thomas Rawls, who was third on the depth chart at the beginning of the season.

Carolina has been getting things done with its defense, holding teams to a measly 92 yards rushing per game and 17 points per game. It’s even more impressive when you take into account that they’ve done it without All-Pro LB Luke Kuechly, who still has yet Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Seattle Seahawks Alex B. Smith

NFL Handicapping: So-so performances by 0-2 teams in Week 3

09.28.2015     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A quick look back at how the nine 0-2 teams performed in Week 3. The end result was 5-4 SU/ATS. All told, not one of the nine teams, including those who won and covered, really played all that well. Four teams remain winless heading into Week 4: Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, and New Orleans.

Indianapolis - Trailing 27-14 late in the third quarter, the Colts rallied back for the 35-33 win at Tennessee but failed to cover as -3 favorites.

Baltimore - Outgained by over a yard per play, the Ravens couldn't hold on to a 24-21 lead as Cincinnati punched in the game-winning touchdown with two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Big red flag as Andy Dalton threw for 383 yards and 12.0 yards per attempt.

Seattle - After tough back-to-back road games, the Seahawks cruised past Chicago 26-0. Note that it was a 6-0 game at halftime.

Detroit - The Lions couldn't run the football (28 yards, 1.5 ypc) or hang on to it (3 turnovers) in Sunday night's 24-12 loss to Denver.

Philadelphia - It wasn't pretty as the Eagles were outgained 4.3 ypp to 3.4 ypp in Sunday's Read more

Tags: NFL

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Power Ratings 1-32

09.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The NFL regular season starts on Thursday.  Here’s how I have the 32 teams ranked heading into the campaign, with a quick blurb each squad.

1. New England Patriots - With Tom Brady set to open the season as the starting quarterback, the defending champs are the team to beat, worthy of my #1 ranking heading into the regular season.

2. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle enjoyed the best yards-per-rush differential between offense and defense last year, but they’ve got significant offensive line question marks as they head to St Louis for Week 1.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers passing game was second to none in the NFL last year, but the loss of Jordy Nelson leaves Aaron Rodgers without his top target for the entire season.

4. Indianapolis Colts - Most elite contenders face a tougher than average schedule because they’ve got to face other contending teams.  Indy, however, plays only four games against playoff teams from last year.

5. Denver Broncos - Peyton Manning is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL by a wide margin, and he’s coming off a season where his arm strength noticeably declined down the Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Betting: Seattle's Carroll says starters need the work

08.28.2015     07:16 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said there will be no fear when it comes to playing time for his starters in Saturday's preseason tilt at San Diego.

"We will play some more plays this week and look forward to these guys coming out after halftime and playing and getting ready to play this season that's just around the corner," Carroll said.

"No," he said. "We manage our guys the way we do and we're fortunately in pretty good shape right now. These guys need to play. They need the play time. They've got to get ready. You can't hide from it, it's coming, it's right around the corner. They need to be fit and mentally right to play four quarters of football two weeks from now, so we've got to take this next step."

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks San Diego Chargers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Recap

08.24.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In the NFL Preseason, when coaches almost never play for a late game tie to force overtime, there’s an enormous difference between laying -1 and -2.5.  Games decided by final margins or 1 or 2 points are relatively rare once September rolls around.  In August, they are commonplace.   Three games were decided by a single point this past weekend, in Week 2 of the preseason, with the Bills beating the Browns 11-10, the Chiefs beating the Seahawks 14-13 and the Panthers beating the Dolphins 31-30.

Both Kansas City-Seattle and Carolina-Miami produced a win, loss or push based on betting skills, not handicapping skills, with lines on both games moving up throughout the course of the week.   In addition, the Patriots pulled off the comeback of the weekend to beat New Orleans 26-24, a two point margin.  Meanwhile, there was only one game finishing with a final margin of three points; the Chargers 22-19 win at Arizona. 

It was a similar story in Week 1, with more games finishing with 1 or 2 point final margins than games that were decided by exactly three points.   With two more weeks of these meaningless Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Kansas City starters could play entire first half vs. Seattle

08.21.2015     08:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here's the likely reason behind Week 2's biggest line move as Kansas City expects to play its starters "close to a half" against Seattle. The Chiefs opened a pick 'em but have since been bet up to a -3 home favorite.

Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Seattle Seahawks

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Recap

08.17.2015     08:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Week 1 of the NFL Preseason is behind us.  The NFL season win totals futures markets are already reacting to what we’ve seen, showing some modest movement off the successes and failures of the first and second string units.  We can expect that initial line movement to continue unabated if we see more of the same from those units in Week 2.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a quick tour around the NFL, specifically focusing on any misleading stats or under-the radar performances from the 16 games that we just saw.

Let’s start with a brief overview of the results.  It was a strong Week 1 for the betting favorites.  There were three games that closed right around pick ‘em with no chalk to speak of: KC at Arizona, Washington at Cleveland and Miami at Chicago.  Of the 13 games that closed with a legitimate favorite of at least -1 or higher here in Las Vegas, the favorites dominated to the tune of 10-3 ATS (counting Jacksonville -1.5 as a win in their two point victory over Pittsburgh).  All three underdogs that covered won the game in SU fashion (Carolina beat Buffalo, Green Bay won at New England and Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers


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