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October

31

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC News and Notes

10.20.2014     11:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Atlanta Falcons
Since blowing out Tampa Bay on national TV in Week 3, the Atlanta Falcons have looked nothing short of awful.  A team that made it to the NFC Championship Game two years ago is now entrenched in a four game skid; picking up right where they left off last year when they went 4-12 and ranked among the most disappointing teams in football.

All four losses during this SU and ATS skid have come by double digit margins.  The Falcons certainly aren’t going to win many defensive struggles – their stop unit has allowed 24+ six times in seven ballgames this year, a mediocre defense on a good day.  But many pundits thought the Falcons would be good enough to trade points with most of their foes.  That simply hasn’t been the case, in large part, due to cluster injuries on the offensive line, with backup center Peter Konz the latest to go down.

Matt Ryan was sacked five times and hit nine times in Atlanta’s loss to Baltimore on Sunday, while throwing for a season low in yards. "When you go out there and get beat soundly, I think everybody knows we've got to play better across the board. Read more


Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons Seattle Seahawks Chicago Bears Washington Redskins Teddy Covers




NFL Monday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public can't get enough Seahawks and OVER

10.06.2014     02:31 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets (side, total, and moneyline) for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Redskins courtesy of Bookmaker. Washington has seen a steady amount of market support with the line down from +8.5 to as low as +7ev.

SIDE
75.6% - SEATTLE -7

TOTAL
73.7% - OVER 45

MONEYLINE
65.3% - SEATTLE -325



Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Washington Redskins




NFL Betting News: History says Seahawks will dominate Redskins

10.06.2014     01:56 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There are a slew of stats and results that point towards the Seattle Seahawks rolling all over the Washington Redskins tonight. One of those includes eight straight MNF wins by a combined score of 208-65. Don't tell that to the betting markets who bet the Seahawks down from -8.5 to -7.



Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Washington Redskins




NFL Gambling Preview: Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos

10.01.2014     02:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arizona at Denver
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Denver -8.5 O/U 49.5
CRIS Current: Denver -7 O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -7.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

The defending AFC champion Broncos have yet to cover a pointspread in three tries this season; one of only three teams that are winless ATS (the Jets at 0-3-1 ATS and the Jaguars at 0-4 ATS are the other two).  But all three of the Broncos ATS defeats deserve at least a little bit of an asterisk attached to them.

In Week 1, Denver was in complete control throughout against the Colts, but Indy made a late rally thanks to a recovered onside kick to lose by only seven points as 7.5 point underdogs.  The following week, the Broncos were again comfortably in control against the Chiefs but a serious of penalties and ‘third and long’ conversions allowed KC to hang around.  The Broncos offense only had two drives Read more


Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals Denver Broncos Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

09.18.2014     01:13 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Denver at Seattle
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Seattle -4.5 O/U 48.5
CRIS Current: Seattle -4.5 O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -6
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

We all remember what happened when these two teams met in the Super Bowl; a game that was arguably decided on the very first play from scrimmage – a bad snap safety for the Broncos.  And we all know how strong the Seahawks home field has been in recent years.  Seattle’s 20 point win over Green Bay in their opener was just the tip of the iceberg.   They’ve beaten plenty of other elite teams on this field over the last few years, including wins by 26 and 29 points over San Francisco, by 27 over New Orleans, and by 58 over Arizona as part of their truly impressive 13-4 ATS run in the regular season on this field since the start of the 2012 campaign.

The question here is ‘What’s Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 2 Betting Recap

09.15.2014     07:18 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
My September NFL betting mantra is relatively simple.  It can be stated in one sentence: “Bet on good teams, and bet against bad teams.”   This strategy tends to be at its best  very early in the season, before the betting markets catch up to how good or how bad teams actually are compared to last year. 

That strategy did not fare well this past weekend for two reasons – many of the good teams played poorly and a good handful of the bad teams stepped up.  Of the seven top teams in my power ratings, only two managed to cover the pointspread on Sunday (Cincinnati and New England).  Seattle, New Orleans and San Francisco all lost SU as favorites.  Denver won, by not my enough of a margin to cover the number.  And Green Bay pushed against the closing number but lost for anyone who bet the Packers throughout the course of the week.

On the other end of the spectrum, many of the bottom teams in my power ratings stepped up and played a good game.  The worst two teams in the league – Jacksonville and Oakland, according to my numbers – are both 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS.  Other weak teams like the Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers

09.10.2014     02:25 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Seattle at San Diego
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Seattle -5 O/U 44.5
CRIS Current: Seattle -6 O/U 44
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Seattle

The recent history of defending Super Bowl Champions has not been a good one.  No team since the New England Patriots following their 2003 Super Bowl title has even won a single playoff game the following season. The last two defending champs – the Giants and Ravens – failed to make the playoffs the year after their title.

But Seattle is a different animal compared to recent Super Bowl champs.  Three things make the Seahawks different.  First, their coaching staff didn’t get raided this past offseason, as they return both coordinators.  The historical norm is that Super Bowl winning teams tend to lose some of their coaching talent in the offseason, but there’s full continuity for the Read more


Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks San Diego Chargers Teddy Covers




NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public supports Seahawks and OVER

09.04.2014     02:47 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the consensus bets for tonight’s NFL regular season opener between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDE
55.0% - Seattle -5.5

TOTAL
68.6% - OVER 46.5

MONEYLINE
59.8% - Green Bay +210

 

 



Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks




NFL Preseason Handicapping: Seattle starters to play into third quarter vs. Chicago

08.22.2014     12:13 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago at Seattle -7 O/U 45

The Seattle Seahawks look to be all business for tonight's preseason game vs. Chicago. Pete Carroll said the starters will play into the third quarter. Tarvaris Jackson will follow Russell Wilson and if time permits, Terrell Pryor will take some snaps. Seattle is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in the third game of the preseason under Carroll. The Seahawks opened -6.5 but were quickly bet to -7 with a few Las Vegas sportsbooks currently dealing -7.5.



Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Chicago Bears




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL Preseason Week 1

08.11.2014     12:46 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
From 2008 through 2013, Overs ruled the roost when it came to betting preseason football, with more Overs than Unders cashing in every single season.  The average points scored in August NFL games increased every year during that span, from 35.3 points per game in 2008 up to 41.2 points per game last year; a preseason that saw Overs cash at nearly a 60% clip. 

An increase of six points per game over a five year span is absolutely going to attract some betting market attention.  The quants who rule the markets aren’t going to let that type of information slip by without a significant reaction!

In particular, the lowest totals have been the best Over bets during this run of relatively high scoring affairs.  Totals of 36.5 or less have been enormous profit makers for Over bettors.  From 2009 through 2013, games totaled at 36.5 or less went Over at a 93-57 (62%) clip.  Games totaled at 37 or higher were essentially split 50-50 between Over cashes and Under cashes – all the profits came from betting lower totals Over.

So what happened in Week 1 this year?  A huge run of Unders!  Including the Hall of Fame Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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"Seattle Seahawks'"

October

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