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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Season Over/Under Win "morphers"

06.23.2014     08:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the seven NFC teams that are projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014 based on the current market numbers for their season win totals.  I intended to write Part II of the article last week, talking about the four AFC teams that are also projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014, but I got derailed by the College Football Game of the Year openers at the Golden Nugget; a “must report” event.  So, let’s just call it better late than never!

The markets are telling us to expect more of the same from 12 of the 16 AFC teams.  What makes these four squads different? My goal here is to focus on why these particular teams are expected to improve or decline significantly compared to last year.  I’ll do that by looking at how the broader market conditions affect the numbers.  What do the markets fixate upon?  What do they largely ignore?  Read on to find out. 

Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5 in 2013, O/U 8 wins in 2014
Last year in this space, I called the Chiefs coming off a truly dismal 2-14 campaign “the poster child for Read more


Tags: NFL AFC Kansas City Chiefs Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals Houston Texas Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC Season Over/Under Win "morphers"

06.09.2014     08:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve been waiting patiently for the NFL Season Wins market to mature, but that doesn’t happen quickly here in June.  Most of the notable offshores have not posted Over/Under win totals yet, leaving Vegas as the only active market right now. As a result, all the numbers used in this article are from right here in Sin City.

Of the 32 NFL teams, only 11 have Over/Under win totals that are different from their final record last year by two games or more.  In other words, the markets are telling us to expect ‘more of the same’ from 21 of the 32 teams in the league.

In my Vegas Wiseguy Report article over the next two weeks, I’m going to focus on those eleven teams that are expected to morph positively or negatively from last year.  The goal of this discussion is to focus on why these particular teams are expected to improve or decline significantly compared to last year.  I’ll do that by looking at how the broader market conditions affect the numbers.  What do the markets fixate upon?  What do they largely ignore?  Read on to find out.

This week’s focus will be on the seven NFC Read more


Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Carolina Panthers Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arizona Cardinals Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason NFC Betting News and Notes

06.02.2014     10:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote that “the NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!”

“My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.”

Last week, I focused on the 16 teams from the AFC.  In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 NFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  And this week, I’ll do my absolute best to avoid egregious errors like my ‘San Diego didn’t make the 2013 playoffs’ Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason AFC Betting News and Notes

05.26.2014     08:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The LVH Superbook posted their NFL Season Win totals last weekend.  Cantor sportsbooks (CG Technology) have had season win totals posted for months.  Many other books both here in Vegas and offshore have posted season win totals, Week 1 pointspreads and Game of the Year pointspreads.  Most books that haven’t posted NFL numbers yet plan to do so in the near future.  The NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!

My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.

In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 AFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  I’ll offer similar Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas AFC




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Draft has little impact on betting markets

05.12.2014     07:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL draft is a thing of beauty for those who appreciate hype without substance.   After months of hype – literally, months of it, more hype than we see for any Super Bowl – the first round of the NFL draft attracted 32 million viewers to the coverage on ESPN and the NFL Network. 

That’s a massive 28 percent increase over the 25 million that watched the draft in 2013.  On digital media platforms, the draft drew more than 14 million visits, a 54 percent increase from 2013.  And I’m not convinced the ratings gold were all the result of Johnny Manziel‘s crossover publicity.  Fans and bettors alike seem to think that the draft is important.

The pre-draft hype is a series of smokescreens, with GM’s and personnel directors around the league unwilling to divulge any meaningful information to media types and those who communicate with media types.  We see mock drafts for weeks leading up to the real draft, with the likes of Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, Pete Prisco and Mike Mayock offering their informed predictions. 

And yet despite multiple revisions of those mock drafts – even Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Floyd Mayweather reminds everyone that Twitter is not 100 percent accurate

02.03.2014     01:32 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Floyd speaks...


"Somebody lied to you all," Mayweather tweeted. "If I was going to bet, I would have bet on the Seattle Seahawks. I'm the best defensive fighter, it's only right to go with the best defensive team."

"I did NOT bet $10 million on the Broncos. As a matter of fact, I didn't bet at all. I can't control what rumors that are put out there. … The only thing I would bet $10 million on is myself."





Tags: Floyd Mayweather Super Bowl XLVIII




Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bet: Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards

02.02.2014     08:54 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over


This line is all over the board offshore and I’m sure it is in Vegas as well. The best number I’ve seen offshore is 40.5 -115 at Heritage. I’ve also seen as high as 43.5 +100 at Bookmaker. Try to get the best number you can, you never know when that yard or half a yard will matter.

Doug Baldwin doesn’t get much in the way of national media attention and he is far from a Pro Bowl caliber receiver. But he might just be Russell Wilson’s favorite target right now and I think that gives us an edge with this prop.

Baldwin has big play ability which can go a long way to helping us cash this bet. He posted a catch of over 20 yards in 13 games this year and had 10 games where he had more than 40 receiving yards. That includes his season high 106 yard effort against a tough 49ers defense in the NFC Championship. This week he takes a step down in competition against Football Outsiders’ 21st ranked pass defense.

Percy Harvin’s return is the big story and I’m sure Seattle will try to get him involved. But I don’t think that fact Read more


Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos Super Bowl XLVIII Otto Sports




Super Bowl XLVIII Gambling: Teddy Covers chats with Business Insider

02.02.2014     08:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Business Insider did a Q&A with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers on how he's betting Super Bowl XLVIII. Read it here.


I have Total Sacks under 4 and 1/2. That's -155. There's juice attached to that. And with many of the prop bets that I make, I will be laying a fair bit of 'juice'. There's a simple thought process. In general, recreational players are looking to bet a little bit to win a lot. And in general, professional bettors are more than willing to lay a price to win a little. So, I'm comfortable laying some extra juice with this particular wager because 4 1/2 sacks is a lot considering that Peyton Manning doesn't take sacks and Manning and...Russell Wilson has that scramble ability that allows him to escape a front presser at times. So you put those two factors together and with the fact that neither team is particularly blitz heavy team and the other 4 1/2 sacks is a great bet.

 



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers




Super Bowl XLVIII Gambling: Blog recap

01.31.2014     02:03 PM     Printer Friendly


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII




Watch Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers talk Super Bowl XLVIII on Bloomberg TV

01.31.2014     10:13 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Here's a link to the video of Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers talking Super Bowl XLVIII on Bloomberg TV. Teddy looking mighty dapper!





Sportsmemo's Teddy Covers on Bloomberg TV

01.30.2014     10:46 AM     View Original Blog


Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers will be talking Super Bowl XLVIII on Bloomberg TV's 'Street Smart' with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson at 1:30 pm PT this afternoon.



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 02, 2014 01:33 AM.