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College Football Betting Preview: Calofornia Golden Bears at Texas Longhorns

09.18.2015     07:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
California at Texas
Saturday, 4:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
California -3 O/U 60
CRIS Current: California -7 O/U 58
Recommendation: Texas

We’re getting a real pointspread bargain here thanks to the nuances of the betting marketplace here in September.   The bettable line for this game from the Westgate Superbook here in Las Vegas, exactly one month ago, was Texas -9.5.  Let me repeat that: Texas -9.5.  Personnel wise, virtually nothing has changed in the last month.  But the perception of these two teams has changed in the markets, and that offers us legitimate value.

Cal was a hot team in the betting markets in Week 1, taking money against FCS Grambling.  They closed as 45-point favorites and covered the spread by two touchdowns.  Last week, the money poured in on the Bears immediately after the line was posted.  Cal opened as low as -7 against San Diego State, but they closed -13 and again, covered the spread by two touchdowns.

What have we seen this week?  The exact same betting pattern!  Cal opened as -3 favorites Read more

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12 Texas Longhorns Big XII Teddy Covers

College Football Betting Preview: California Golden Bears at Northwestern Wildcats

08.28.2014     07:43 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
California at Northwestern
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener:
Northwestern -12 O/U 61
CRIS Current: Northwestern -11 O/U 60
Andrew's Recommendation: Northwestern

The thing to remember about Cal is if we go back to the early portion of head coach Sonny Dykes' first season there were signs of potential. In Week 1 Cal had Northwestern on the ropes in Berkley before two costly second half interceptions gave the far more experience Wildcats the 44-30 win. And in Week 3, Cal was eventually blown out but hung over 500 yards on a 12-win Ohio State squad. Then the wheels came off as injuries set in, their lack of depth was exposed, and Dykes' pedal-to-the-metal offense put a ridiculous amount of pressure of what would end up being one the worst defenses in the country. My point? If Cal was good enough to play with Northwestern and move the ball vs. Ohio State then a year later (wiser, stronger, and healthier) Read more

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12 Northwestern Wildcats Big Ten Andrew Lange

College Football Betting: Cal starts from scratch with new defensive coordinator

07.08.2014     02:11 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Cal's defense was historically bad last season (529.6) with only New Mexico State allowing more yards per game. The Golden Bears were thin on talent, hammered by injuries, and playing for a coach in Sonny Dykes who liked to run an up-tempo offense. Heading into his second season, Dykes obviously needed to make a change and hired former Texas Tech and Cincinnati defensive coordinator Art Kaufman. In 2011, Texas Tech's defense under Kaufman ranked 38th nationally in total offense (367.3 ypg) – nearly 120 ypg better than the previous year. Last season, Cincinnati ranked 9th nationally at 315.6 ypg. Here's a good article on what to expect scheme-wise from the Golden Bears under Kaufman.

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12

College Football Handicapping: Week 7 Injury Report

10.10.2013     08:06 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Louisville WR DaVante Parker is ‘questionable’ tonight vs. Rutgers with a shoulder injury. Parker has 21 receptions for 375 yards and six TDs.

Rutgers LB Jamal Merrell will be back tonight after missing three games with a kidney ailment. Merrell was the Scarlet Knights’ leading returning tackler who had 7.5 stops for losses last year. RU running back Paul James will miss his second straight game at Louisville. James has run for 573 yards and six TDs this year.

South Carolina All-American DE and future first-round pick Jadeveon Clowney didn’t go in last week’s 35-28 win over Kentucky. For the third straight game, the Gamecocks burned their backers by giving up another backdoor cover. Clowney (bruised ribs) remains ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s game at Arkansas. The air seems to have been cleared with Steve Spurrier and Clowney making comments this week about his commitment to the team that came in question when he told his coaches he couldn’t play against UK. On the complete flip side, Connor Shaw did play against the ‘Cats after hurting his shoulder the week before. Shaw showed no signs of pain in Read more

Tags: College Football Brian Edwards

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Using coach-speak in your handicap

09.02.2013     07:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Part of the standard handicapping mantra includes ‘checking the local papers’ and ‘watching the coach’s press conference’ in an effort to get quality information that the betting markets aren’t paying attention too.  Computer algorithms designed to beat pointspreads can’t and don’t handicap coach-speak.  Few bettors actually take the time to do their homework.  So ‘cappers who make and take the time to check local sources and press conferences can find legitimate edges that are overlooked by most others – good information.

There’s no dictionary to help you translate coach-speak into betting decisions.  And in all the years I’ve been writing about sports betting, I’ve never once written a how-to article on how to approach coaches quotes.  It’s time.

This past week, while doing my research for the upcoming college football games, I ran into a press conference from Skip Holtz.  Skip was a very successful coach at East Carolina and UConn, then a very unsuccessful coach at South Florida.  In 2013, Holtz is taking over at Louisiana Tech, now that Sonny Read more

Tags: College Football NC State Wolfpack ACC Louisiana Tech Bulldogs C-USA Teddy Covers

College Football Betting Preview: Northwestern Wildcats at California Golden Bears

08.28.2013     11:45 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Northwestern at California
Saturday, 7:30 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Northwestern -3 O/U 58.5
CRIS Current: Northwestern -5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Northwestern -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Northwestern

When Washington State went from good to mediocre to awful in the PAC-12, it happened rather predictably.  Mike Price had success in Pullman, albeit not every year, and he left the cupboard full for his successor, Bill Doba, when Price took the Alabama job.  Doba won ten games in his first year, and the Cougars enjoyed their third consecutive top 10 ranking at the close of the season following an upset win over Texas in the Holiday Bowl.

But Doba was not the right hire; unable to recruit (or coach) the way Price did.  Washington State quickly went from a top 10 program three years running to a squad that was struggling to reach .500 every year: 5-6, 4-7, Read more

Tags: College Football Northwestern Wildcats Big Ten California Golden Bears PAC-12 Teddy Covers

NCAA Football Handicapping: Cal's Dykes goes with true frosh quarterback

08.22.2013     01:49 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Considering the schedule (daunting) and the state of the program (not good), it shouldn't come as a shock to see Cal first-year head coach Sonny Dykes with an eye on the future and tab true freshman Jared Goff as the team’s Week 1 starter against Northwestern. While at Louisiana Tech, Dykes turned Colby Cameron into a great quarterback – though it didn't happen overnight. Cameron struggled as sophomore, took over as starter midway through his junior season, and of course set the world on fire with 4,100 yards and a 31-5 TD/INT ratio last year.

"We have had a fiercely-contested competition for our starting quarterback position," Dykes said in a statement. "It's important to name a starter and give them the reps they need to be prepared to play. We feel that right now Jared Goff gives us the best chance to be successful as a team, but we are very fortunate to have three outstanding quarterbacks we feel we can be successful with."

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12

College Football Betting: Cal's Dykes walking into a tough situation

08.02.2013     07:47 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article on Cal first-year head coach Sonny Dykes and the current state of the program. He's got some work to do with only 11 returning starters, no experience at the quarterback position, and a brutal schedule. According to 5Dimes, Cal is lined at 4un-145 regular season wins. The Golden Bears are also an 8.5-point home favorite to Northwestern for Week 1.

“Our whole emphasis is always on speed. We want to do everything fast. We want our players to think fast, react fast and play fast. We want to recruit fast kids. We want to transition fast. When guys are thinking and unsure, that results in them being a step slow. By design everything's pretty simple.”

On offensive coordinator Tony Franklin: “He'll call the plays. I'll do a lot of the situational stuff — 'We've got the ball at midfield. It's third and 7.' I'm going to tell him, 'Hey you've got two downs,' that type of stuff. There are times I'll say, 'Let's run the ball here. Take a shot here.' It's more game management than specific plays. We've been around each other 16

Read more

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12

College Football Betting: Oddsmakers price Cal Golden Bears as PAC-12 bottom feeder

06.27.2013     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Remember when oddsmakers couldn't make Washington State's lines high enough during the Paul Wulff era? Well according to the early betting markets, the Cal Golden Bears are projected to be just as bad as some of those absolutely awful Wazzu teams. You know things are dismal when you're a Week 1 10.5-point home underdog to Northwestern (last time we checked, Cal did take some money in that contest). Making matters worse for first-year head coach Sonny Dykes is an absolutely brutal schedule with non-conference games against Northwestern and Ohio State as well as five PAC-12 road games (4 at home). 5Dimes has Cal lined at 4.5un-160 wins.

Golden Nugget GOY Openers
Northwestern (-10.5) @ California
Ohio St (-21) @ California
California @ Oregon (-34)
California @ UCLA (-16.5)
Oregon St (-13) @ California
California @ Washington (-17)
Arizona (-11) @ California
USC (-17) @ California
California @ Stanford (-22)

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12

College Football ATS Notes: Louisiana Tech braces for Houston offense

09.15.2011     12:42 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Houston -6.5 at Louisiana Tech O/U 70.5

Some good news and notes for this weekend's Houston-Louisiana Tech matchup in Ruston. Tech head coach Sonny Dykes seemed somewhat pleased with his offense's performance in last week's 48-42 overtime win over Central Arkansas. He noted however that they'll need to be in better form in order to match the inevitable onslaught of touchdowns from Houston. Dykes also talked about finding ways to rest the defense without disrupting the rhythm of the offense. Perhaps more concerning is LT's defense which surrendered 445 Read more

Tags: College Football Louisiana Tech Bulldogs WAC Houston Cougars C-USA


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