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SPECIAL OFFER: Crush this Week in All Sports for only $99
05.20.2013 10:26 AM
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MLB Gambling News: A Unique Look at Offenses
05.20.2013 10:02 AM
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Stat Intelligence
As you probably know, I’ve been playing around with 5-inning options in Major League Baseball this year. Part of the fun of that is doing record-keeping that you know nobody else is doing. Helps you see things from different perspectives.
I’ve been logging all the results by hand because there aren’t any websites I know of that go in-depth with this stuff. That’s GREAT, because it’s easier to gain and maintain an edge over the market when information isn’t widely available. Don’t think I’ll be giving away anything to vital in this post…though creative readers may find a way to use the data.
Here’s the percentage of time that each offense has reached at least two runs in the first five innings this year, through the games of Sunday afternoon…
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit 76%
Baltimore 73%
LA Angels 68%
Boston 68%
Tampa Bay 67%
Cleveland
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NBA Handicapping: Memphis vs. San Antonio Statline Preview
05.19.2013 08:10 AM
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Stat Intelligence
A new series starts Sunday. Let’s review regular season performance in the stat categories we’ve been studying in in the college and pro postseasons. Note that these are regular season only numbers. Prefer using an 82-game sample with similar strengths of schedule. Then we can pencil in what we’ve learned so far in the playoffs if need be.
(5) Memphis: 47% two-point defense, +3.7 rebounding, +1.5 TO’S, 4.7 treys, #29 full season pace
(2) S. Antonio: 47% two-point defense, +1.2 rebounding, +0.2 TO’S, 8.1 treys, #6 full season pace
Pretty clear differences there once you get past two-point defense. And, the whole world was at 47% in that category anyway if you’ll recall from our first round previews!
MEMPHIS is the “defense and rebounding wins championships” team, with a huge edge on the glass, and a proven ability to force a lot of turnovers. During the regular season we encouraged you to think of them as the
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San Antonio Spurs
Memphis Grizzlies
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NBA Betting Recap: Memphis and Miami headed to Conference Finals
05.16.2013 06:31 AM
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Stat Intelligence
Though there’s still a lot of basketball left to be played…there’s already a rumbling that the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat are on a collision course for the NBA Finals. Both wrapped up their second round series in five games Wednesday Night.
Memphis 88, Oklahoma City 84
2-Point Percentage: Memphis 40%, Oklahoma City 42%
3-Point Shooting: Memphis 3/14, Oklahoma City 6/25
Free Throws: Memphis 25/29, Oklahoma City 16/21
1’s and 2’s: Memphis 79, Oklahoma City 66
Rebounds: Memphis 45, Oklahoma City 44
Turnovers: Memphis 9, Oklahoma City 14
Memphis blew a big lead…then blew a big lead AGAIN before frantically holding on in the final moments. Kevin Durant of OKC stayed out of gas…only shooting 5 of 21 on the evening. I’m hoping statheads who generally decry “inventing a narrative” are learning to think a bit more about that. If you’re really
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NBA Betting Recap: Spurs up 3-2 after wearing down Warriors
05.15.2013 08:17 AM
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Stat Intelligence
It’s always dangerous to think that you’ve seen a team officially run out of gas. Golden State is a young group that could find another wind at home in front of a loud crowd Thursday night. And, there’s an extra day off waiting afterward because Game Seven wouldn’t be until Sunday.
Unfortunately, if you’re a Warriors fan:
*Golden State couldn’t win in regulation in the first two games at home
*Steph Curry looks utterly wiped out
*Andrew Bogut seems to be wearing down
*You’re not going to win two-in-a-row from the Spurs without Curry and Bogut in leadership positions
The stage is set for a potential Warriors rally because of that extra day off. The team will have a lot of days off if Curry and Bogut can’t rejuvenate by Thursday.
San Antonio 109, Golden State 91
2-Point Percentage: Golden State 49%, San Antonio 54%
3-Point Shooting: Golden State
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NBA Handicapping: Playoff Home Court Advantage/Power Ratings Thru 5/12/13
05.13.2013 07:44 AM
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Stat Intelligence
Let’s update the numbers for home court advantage so far through the NBA Playoffs. Sunday’s Spurs/Warriors game brought us to a total of 58 results. I’m using 0’s for overtime games so we can keep everything in the sample right at 48 minutes. The data you’re about to see represents the first 48 minutes of every game.
Average Result: Home team by 3.6 points
Median Result: Home team by 2 points
The market generally prices home court in the NBA at about 3 points for the regular season (with tweaks for back-to-backs and at least a bonus point in Denver for the altitude). In the playoffs that often scoots up to about 4 points or even more. We’re not seeing that in Miami/Chicago, because Miami is so good some consider them more immune to “road court disadvantage.” We’ve been seeing about 5 in New York/Indiana, as the home team has been at least -5 in all four games thus far.
Here’s the updated number
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Gambling Update: Ivey accused of cheating casino
05.13.2013 07:41 AM
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UPDATE
Here is the other side of the
Phil Ivey/London Casino
story. It turns out Ivey is being accused of "exploiting a defective pack of card to gain a huge edge over the house."
“By turning an asymmetrical card 180 degrees it is possible to identify what the value of the card is before it is revealed. You simply glance at the edges on the back of the card. Essentially, playing the turn has the same effect as marking the cards and gives players a huge house edge. Who needs invisible ink and red-tinted sunglasses when you’ve got manufacturer-made “marked cards.”
Phil Ivey says British casino owes him a boatload of money
05.08.2013 07:12 AM
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NBA Postseason Betting Recap: Heat and Warriors bounce back strong
05.09.2013 07:49 AM
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Stat Intelligence
Golden State got off the mat from Monday night’s gut punch with a fury...as they dominated the first half on the way to a 9-point road win. Miami reminded everyone why they’re favorites to go the distance, routing Chicago by 37 (and it could have been worse).
Numbers and notes…starting with the more compelling of the two…
Golden State 100, San Antonio 91
2-Point Percentage: Golden State 44%, San Antonio 44%
3-Point Shooting: Golden State 11/23, San Antonio 5/21
Free Throws: Golden State 13/20, San Antonio 16/24
1’s and 2’s: Golden State 67, San Antonio 76
Rebounds: Golden State 50, San Antonio 48
Turnovers: Golden State 9, San Antonio 10
It’s tempting to say that Golden State learned a lesson about protecting a second half lead. But, you know what? They were outscored 48-38 in the second half. They had a LOUSY second half, lowlighted by only 17 points in
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Durant leads OKC past Memphis in Game 1
05.06.2013 11:48 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Coming into the playoffs, the odds that backup OKC point guard Derek Fisher would be a defensive difference maker were somewhere between slim and none. Then Russell Westbrook suffered a season ending injury. Reggie Jackson, the second year point guard out of Boston College who averaged just 14 minutes of playing time during the regular season, has been promoted to the starting spot. Fisher, who didn’t even sign with the Thunder until after the All-Star break, got a steady dose of garbage time minutes down the stretch. He closed out his 24 game regular season stint with OKC averaging just 4.1 points on 33% shooting and 0.7 assists per game.
Fisher’s playoff history is truly a special one, highlighted by his infamous Game 5 buzzer beating three-pointer at San Antonio in Game 5 of the 2004 Western Conference Finals. That shot is just one of quite literally dozens of huge makes from Fisher from a career that dates all the way back to 1996. And Fisher hit a pair of impact three pointers in Game 1 against Memphis as well. But the biggest clutch contribution from a guy with five championship rings on his fingers came
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NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Pacers and Thunder take 1-0 series leads
05.06.2013 07:08 AM
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Stat Intelligence
I didn’t get a chance to re-post the regular season statlines before Round Two got started Sunday in the NBA Playoffs. Let’s do a combination report that features those, plus the afternoon boxscores from the first two games of the league quarterfinals.
Let’s start in the East. The format we used during March Madness that helped paint such a good picture for us involved the following stats:
Two-Point Defense
Rebound Differential
Turnover Differential
Made Treys per Game
Pace Ranking
If you believe “defense and rebounding wins championships,” we have those numbers. If you believe that “you have to avoid turnovers” is important when championships are on the line, we have that. If you believe that three-point production is revolutionizing the game, that’s covered. If you believe that playing at your preferred pace while forcing your opponent out of their comfort zone is a hidden key to postseason
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Indiana Pacers
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