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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the NFL Playoff contenders

11.30.2015     11:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
There’s one thing that has become very clear to me as the NFL season enters the December stretch run following another week of wild finishes and head scratching upsets.  The 2015 season is an ode to mediocrity.  You’re not going to find many (any?) truly elite teams. 
With the Patriots ongoing injury woes, when it comes to the elites at this stage of the campaign, there are only three teams I’d even consider: the Panthers, Cardinals and Bengals.  And all three of those teams have enough question marks to put them a good notch or two below where my top power rated teams were last year or the year before at this stage of the campaign.

It’s a similar story at the bottom of the league.  I’ve got eight teams grouped at the bottom of my power ratings: the 49ers, Chargers, Ravens, Titans, Browns, Saints, Jaguars and Rams.  All eight of those teams, while unquestionably weak, are capable of pulling upsets over playoff contenders, because they’ve all done it at least once this year. 

San Fran has wins over the Vikings and Falcons (still a playoff team if the season ended today).  San Diego Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks

11.30.2015     10:55 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Denver at Milwaukee -4 O/U 200
Recommendation: Milwaukee

Neither team playing well right now as they each sit at 6-11 and in last place of their respective divisions. Denver has lost six straight and have had numerous injuries to deal with thus far especially to their big men. The Bucks have had some early season injuries as well but currently head coach Jason Kidd is trying to correct their leaky defense. In that regard, Kidd went to a different starting lineup yesterday in Charlotte and the switches did help as Milwaukee allowed just 87 points in the five-point loss. Beyond just replacing starting PG Michael Carter-Williams and PF Jabari Parker in the lineup, the larger picture is the message Kidd is sending to his team about the need to defend better. Off of a season where defense became the Bucks calling card, it has likely been more lack of effort rather than lock down ability and have to believe this group will build off Sunday’s result and step it up on that end. Kidd is still pondering what his best starting lineup will be but his message appears to have been received by the team.

The returns of Kenneth Faried and Joffrey Read more

Tags: NBA Denver Nuggets Milwaukee Bucks Rob Veno

NFL Gambling: Las Vegas SuperContest Week 12 consensus picks

11.29.2015     08:49 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top five consensus plays for Week 12 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. TAMPA BAY +3.5 at Indianapolis
2. PITTSBURGH +3.5 at Seattle
3. MINNESOTA pk at Atlanta
4. DENVER +3 vs. New England
5. CLEVELAND -2.5 vs. Baltimore

Least picked Sunday side: NY Jets -3.5 vs. Miami

Tags: NFL

NFL Gambling Preview: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

11.27.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Buffalo at Kansas City
Sunday, 10 am PT
CRIS Opener:
Kansas City -5.5 O/U 42.5
CRIS Current: Kansas City -6.5 O/U 41.5
Recommendation: Buffalo

The Chiefs' four-game winning streak has been as much about the weakness of their opponents than any other factor.  Since their 1-5 start, KC has beaten the Steelers with Landry Jones making his first career start.  They faced the Lions in London when Detroit was in complete disarray on offense.  They knocked off the Broncos in what might be Peyton Manning’s last career start, a woeful four interception performance from the future Hall of Famer.  And last week, they knocked off a bottom tier, injury riddled Chargers squad in blowout fashion.

I’m not saying that Kansas City is a bad team, not by any stretch of the imagination.  But the Chiefs are a long, long way from being elite, and they’re an overvalued betting commodity at this stage of the campaign following this series of wins and covers.

The Chiefs offense is, most assuredly, a second tier unit.  They rank #22 in the NFL in red zone Read more

Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL teams starting to change their stripes

11.23.2015     11:41 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
It’s Week 12 already. Thanksgiving is upon us, with the holiday season right behind it.  All the NFL Bye weeks are in the rear view mirror now, with every team still having exactly six games remaining in the regular season.  We’re seeing numerous ‘morphs’ around the league; teams that have changed their stripes rather dramatically over the course of the last month. 

Some of those morphs are duly noted by the betting markets.  For example, the 3-7 Cowboys with a healthy Tony Romo are favored over the 10-0 Panthers on Thanksgiving Day, with the betting markets reacting to the Cowboys positive showing with Tony Romo back behind center this past Sunday.  The markets certainly aren’t sleeping on Dallas right now!

But what about the Lions, winners of two straight since their woeful 1-7 start?  Or the Falcons, now just 1-4 in their last five games; struggling on both sides of the football?  The Jets aren’t the same team now that they were a month ago, especially if the injuries to shutdown corner Darrelle Revis and Pro Bowl caliber center Nick Mangold don’t heal quickly.  Should we Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas

NFL Gambling: Las Vegas SuperContest Week 11 consensus picks

11.21.2015     08:14 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 11 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. DALLAS pk at Miami
2. NY JETS -2 at Houston
3. GREEN BAY +1 at Minnesota
4. CINCINNATI +5 at Arizona
5. MINNESOTA -1 vs. Green Bay

Least picked Sunday side: Houston +2 vs. NY Jets.

Tags: NFL

NFL Gambling Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons

11.20.2015     11:10 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Indianapolis at Atlanta
Sunday, 10 am PT
CRIS Opener:
Atlanta -6.5 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Atlanta -6 O/U 47
Recommendation: Atlanta

The Colts and Falcons went into their respective bye weeks with a very different state of mind.  Indy lost QB Andrew Luck, but they pulled an outright upset over the Broncos, keeping them in first place in the AFC South.  Atlanta, on the other hand, lost back-to-back games to the Bucs and 49ers by a combined four points. 

Since their 4-0 SU and ATS start to the campaign, Dan Quinn’s squad is just 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS, a dramatically overvalued commodity in recent weeks.  It’s surely worth noting that the Falcons were favored from between -3 to -8 in all five of those ATS losses; the exact same price range that we find Atlanta in again this week.  In fact, Atlanta’s only two wins by more than six points this year came back in Weeks 3 & 4, when they beat the Cowboys with Brandon Weeden and the Texans in Ryan Mallett’s last game as the starter.

Quinn is very familiar with 40 year old Colts backup QB Matt Read more

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Atlanta Falcons Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Colts talk offensive game plan vs. Falcons

11.19.2015     06:21 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New offensive coordinator and new quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts heading into Sunday's game at Atlanta. New OC Rob Chudzinski has reportedly simplified the offense with more emphasis on the run now that 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck is under center.

“The game of football should be like that,’’ Gore said Wednesday. “It helped the defense (to) control the clock. Put us in better situations.”

“I think that probably was the best offensive game for four quarters. Staying on the field, moving the chains, moving the ball, getting tough yards. As an offense we got to keep doing it.’’

“A quarterback’s best friend is pass protection, and the running game helps that,” he said. “The running game, I think we all want to be balanced and having Frank and these guys, it’s a huge help.”

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Atlanta Falcons

NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears

11.18.2015     09:30 AM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith blog entry.
Denver at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT
CRIS Opener:
Chicago pk O/U 43
CRIS Current: Chicago -1 O/U 41.5
Recommendation: Chicago

The Denver Broncos (7-2) head to the Windy City on Sunday to take on the surging Chicago Bears (4-5). The Broncos suffered their second straight defeat last week in a 29-13 loss the Kansas City Chiefs. The big story in that contest was Peyton Manning surpassing Brett Favre as the NFL's all-time passing yardage leader, only to throw four interceptions on 20 attempts and get benched in favor of Brock Osweiler.  Osweiler threw for two touchdowns well after the game was out of reach in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs held Denver's run game in check as well, yielding just 69 yards on the ground on 16 total carries.

Chicago won for the second straight weekend with a 37-13 blowout of the St. Louis Rams. Running back Jeremy Langford was the star of this contest has he picked up 73 yards rushing and 109 yards receiving along with a pair of touchdowns. Tight end Zach Miller also picked up two touchdowns and 107 yards receiving on just five catches; his longest, an 80-yard Read more

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Chicago Bears Alex B. Smith

Las Vegas sportsbooks withstand Holm-Rousey upset thanks to NFL underdogs

11.16.2015     02:35 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
According to reports it was a wild weekend for Las Vegas sportsbooks with Holly Holm knocking out Ronda Rousey and nearly every NFL underdog covering on Sunday.

"At one point, we were approaching six digits on our loss," SuperBook assistant manager Ed Salmons said. "We had some late money on the favorite, which essentially made us a small loser on that fight. But with what we could have lost at one point, it felt like a big winner."

Tags: NFL Las Vegas


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