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NFL Gambling Preview: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

10.02.2015     08:07 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Green Bay at San Francisco
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Green Bay -7 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -8 O/U 48.5
Recommendation: San Francisco

Sometimes, the appropriate betting move in the NFL is to hold your nose and bet on the team that nobody wants; a squad offering legitimate pointspread value.  That’s the case with the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

This is truly a dismal spot for the road favorite.  Green Bay faced divisional rival Chicago in their opener, beating up the Bears.  Then they faced a HUGE revenge game on Sunday Night against the Seahawks; a ‘Big Ticket’ winner for myself and my clients with another ATS cover.  And then the Packers enjoyed a third straight win and cover in a third straight big game, knocking off KC on Monday Night Football.  At 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, the Packers now fly across the country to take on a 49ers team that just got annihilated in back-2-back road tilts, losing by a combined score of 90-25.  Think Green Bay brings their ‘A’ game here?  I don’t!

The 49ers have Read more

Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers San Francisco 49ers Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Alert: Indianapolis' Andrew Luck questionable vs. Jacksonville

10.02.2015     08:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Indianapolis' Andrew Luck (shoulder) is currently listed as questionable for Sunday's divisional game vs. Jacksonville. Luck was reportedly "shut down" after a few throws in practice Thursday. Matt Hasselbeck, who is 40 years old and hasn't started a game since 2012, would likely be Luck's replacement should he sit. The Colts opened -9 but due to his status sportsbooks have taken the game off the board.

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars

College Football Gambling: Wyoming walking into buzzsaw with trip to Appalachian State

09.30.2015     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Following last week's 38-28 home loss to New Mexico in which they allowed 7.44 yards per play, the Wyoming Cowboys are making a slew of personnel changes to their defense. On the school's website, the defensive depth chart (as of Monday) features four redshirt and true freshmen. You can't help but look at Saturday's non-conference road trip to Appalachian State as a "throw away game." The Cowboys are off a league game and have a trip to Air Force on deck. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are off a 49-0 whipping of Old Dominion and have designated Saturday's game vs. Wyoming as homecoming. The betting markets have jump all over the home favorite with Appy State jumping from -19.5 to -25.5.

“If you feel like you’ve got other guys on the bench right now that can go out and make plays, by gosh we’re going to put the next guy in and give them an opportunity to make some plays,” Bohl said.

Tags: College Football Wyoming Cowboys Mountain West Appalachian State Mountaineers Sun Belt

College Football Gambling Update: Cal takes big early money for fifth straight week

09.29.2015     08:09 AM     Printer Friendly

Another big early week market move towards the California Golden Bears (3-1 ATS) as they play host to Washington State. Last week, the Bears were bet up from -2 to -5 against Washington. However, late money had the Huskies go off as -1 favorites at some offshore sportsbooks. It was the wrong opinion as Cal won the game 30-24. This week, CRIS opened Cal -13.5 and it has since been bet up to -19.5. Again, we're talking about a Week 4 college football power conference side, not some soft Week 1 Sun Belt total.

College Football Handicapping: Cal Golden Bears remain hot commodity in betting markets

09.22.2015     02:31 PM     View Original Blog

Another week, Read more

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears Washington State Cougars PAC-12

College Football Betting Preview: Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins

09.29.2015     07:19 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arizona State at UCLA
Saturday, 4:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
UCLA -14 O/U 57.5
CRIS Current: UCLA -13.5 O/U 58
Recommendation: Over

In two games against top-tier competition, Arizona State was completely outplayed. In Week 1, Texas A&M outgained the Sun Devils 425 yards (5.31 ypp) to 291 yards (3.55) in a 38-17 loss. And last week, they were again outgained by over a yard per play against USC; saving some face statistically (455 total yards) by picking up yards during garbage time. The conundrum with the Sun Devils is they have a quarterback who can't run and no elite level receivers to offset it in the passing game. It also doesn't help that ASU has coughed up the football on nine occasions including four times against USC. This was a squad that had only 13 turnovers all of last season and a +14 turnover margin. Now after being embarrassed on their home turf they hit the highway to face a team that beat them 62-27 last season.

UCLA had plenty go its way in last week's 56-30 blowout at Arizona. The Bruins forced three turnovers and the Wildcats lost quarterback Anu Solomon in the second Read more

Tags: College Football Arizona State Sun Devils UCLA Bruins PAC-12 Andrew Lange

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early season college football money burners

09.28.2015     08:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in my Wiseguy Report, I look an in-depth look at the 13 teams that started the college football season 3-0 ATS.   In general, those teams had quite a few commonalities:

“Non-descript teams that aren’t getting much hype or love from the preseason betting markets, the preseason publications or the preseason talking heads.  Teams coming off a bad bowl loss or a late season collapse are definitely worth an extra look, as are teams replacing an experienced, but perhaps underachieving, quarterback.”

I concluded the article with this paragraph: “These early season ATS outliers are NOT likely to continue their red hot runs.  The under-the-radar concept when it comes to finding strong ATS teams in early season play holds sway when it comes to early season results as well.  Many, if not most, of the elite ATS teams in college football this year have already lost at least once against the spread, putting them squarely under-the-radar as potential elite ATS squads moving forward."

If you bet on all 13 of the teams that entered last weekend with a 3-0 ATS mark, you lost money.  Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: So-so performances by 0-2 teams in Week 3

09.28.2015     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A quick look back at how the nine 0-2 teams performed in Week 3. The end result was 5-4 SU/ATS. All told, not one of the nine teams, including those who won and covered, really played all that well. Four teams remain winless heading into Week 4: Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, and New Orleans.

Indianapolis - Trailing 27-14 late in the third quarter, the Colts rallied back for the 35-33 win at Tennessee but failed to cover as -3 favorites.

Baltimore - Outgained by over a yard per play, the Ravens couldn't hold on to a 24-21 lead as Cincinnati punched in the game-winning touchdown with two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Big red flag as Andy Dalton threw for 383 yards and 12.0 yards per attempt.

Seattle - After tough back-to-back road games, the Seahawks cruised past Chicago 26-0. Note that it was a 6-0 game at halftime.

Detroit - The Lions couldn't run the football (28 yards, 1.5 ypc) or hang on to it (3 turnovers) in Sunday night's 24-12 loss to Denver.

Philadelphia - It wasn't pretty as the Eagles were outgained 4.3 ypp to 3.4 ypp in Sunday's Read more

Tags: NFL

NFL Gambling: SuperContest Week 3 consensus picks

09.27.2015     08:01 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 3 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. Carolina -4.5 vs. New Orleans
2. Indianapolis -3 at Tennessee
3. Buffalo +3 at Miami
4. Pittsburgh -1.5 at St. Louis
5. Baltimore -2.5 vs. Cincinnati

Least picked Sunday side: New Orleans +4.5 at Carolina

Tags: NFL

NFL Gambling Alert: Brees ruled out vs. Panthers, worth 5 points to the spread

09.25.2015     07:15 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Big adjustments in the NFL betting markets following the announcement that New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (shoulder) will sit Sunday's game at Carolina. Assuming the durable Brees would play, offshore sportsbooks priced the Panthers -3.5/-3. Once Brees was announced out CRIS reopened the game -7.5 and it immediately shot up to -8. The total originally opened 44 but is now 42.5 across the board. Luke McCown will start in Brees' place.

"I don't think it was a difficult decision today. I think actually it was the opposite for just where he's at," Payton said. "His focus and preparation throughout the week was very much like he was starting. And even out on the practice field today as Luke's taking the reps, he's on top of what we're doing by game plan.

"He practiced both yesterday and the day before. And yet I think this morning as he was throwing, he just felt like the velocity still wasn't there."

"Bottom line is Luke McCown gives us the best chance to win this week. I have to be

Read more

Tags: NFL New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers

NFL Gambling Preview: Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys

09.24.2015     02:33 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Atlanta at Dallas
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Atlanta -1.5 O/U 44
CRIS Current: Dallas pk O/U 44.5
Recommendation: Under

The Dallas Cowboys are the antithesis of the up-tempo offensive approach to the 2015 NFL.  Through their first two games, Dallas has averaged an offensive snap every 32.8 seconds, ranked #31 in the NFL in pace ratings.  They ranked dead last in the NFL in pace last year.  This is not a team primed to push the tempo, regardless of circumstances, which makes perfect sense.  The Cowboys starters are as good as any in the NFL, but they lack quality depth at numerous positions due to their salary cap limitations.  So it makes perfect sense for Dallas to try to protect those starters as much as possible.  Running fewer plays does that, especially over the course of a full season.

But, as we all know, the Cowboys are riddled with high profile offensive injuries right now.  Tony Romo is out for a couple of months, leading receiver Dez Bryant is out, and tight end Jason Witten is very questionable to suit up here.  That leaves Brandon Read more

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons Dallas Cowboys Teddy Covers


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