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Sportsmemo Handicapper Alf Musketa's Masters Tournament Betting Preview
04.10.2013 07:27 AM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
One of the reasons that the Masters is the best golf tournament of the year for bettors is because of the multitude of matchups and props. It is not quite equivalent to Super Bowl props in total numbers but few sporting events provide as much potential for profits.
Perhaps the most famous golf course in the world is a par 72 that measures 7,435 yards. Augusta National can be tamed by the best golfers, but if you do not have your "A" game there are many penalty strokes, water hazards and three putts lurking. The track this year is in hard and fast shape due to little rain in the area. The rough is slightly deeper and thicker than in past years, but it is not nearly as severe as the rough in any of the other majors.
What kind of golfer do we expect to take home the green jacket? It seems like the obvious answer is Tiger Woods, but he hasn't won here since 2005. We are looking for a long hitter to take advantage of the par fives or if conditions become wet and soft to carry the ball down the fairway. Sure, Zach Johnson, Mike Weir and even Mark O'Meara won at Augusta with less than average driving distance, but they either had extreme
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Alf Musketa
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NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Stat Profiles for St. Mary's/MTSU and Boise State/La Salle
03.19.2013 06:45 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
I’m going to skip the two play-in games on the #16 seed rung because those teams are so obscure…and basically irrelevant for the week. Here are some notes on the other two play in games. St. Mary’s vs. Middle Tennessee will be played Tuesday night in Dayton, Boise State/LaSalle on Wednesday night.
Hybrid Estimates
St. Mary’s: +12.8 average margin in Big West, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 75.31
Middle Tennessee: +16.5 average margin in the Sun Belt, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 69.51
Middle Tennessee is +3.7 on the raw total, but St. Mary’s played in a conference that was +5.8 points better. So, that’s St. Mary’s by 2.1 points. The Vegas line as I write this is St. Mary’s. Pretty close there.
Boise State: +1.1 average margin in the Mountain West, which has a Sagarin rating of 80.71
LaSalle: +5.5 average margin in the Atlantic 10, which has a Sagarin rating of
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Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
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Boise State Broncos
La Salle Explorers
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers takes a look at 28 NCAA Tournament matchups
03.18.2013 10:19 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
With the madness that is March now in full swing, it’s time to take a look through the brackets. Today, I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups already set for Thursday and Friday. Games are listed in rotation order.
Missouri
spent the entire season losing close games on the road, falling in OT at UCLA and Kentucky, while dropping games by three points or less at Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU and to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament. Larry Eustachy got the most he could out of
Colorado State’s
talent level this year, but the Rams, too, lost nearly every step-up game on the highway.
As a No. 3 seed,
Marquette
is only a 3.5-point favorite over No. 14 seed
Davidson
. The betting markets clearly respect the Wildcats five upperclassmen starters that started 30 of their 33 previous games together this season.
Butler
has won at least the first two games of every single postseason tournament they’ve played since 2010, including runs in the Horizon League and A-10 conference tourney’s, two runs to the championship
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Teddy Covers
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College Basketball Handicapping: Hybrid Power Ratings
03.13.2013 07:32 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Updated these today. If you’re new to the blog….what you see below are a combination of:
*The team’s average margin in conference play ONLY
*Adjusted for conference strength based on Jeff Sagarin’s conference ratings (scroll way down)
Sagarin has the Big 10 as the best conference in the nation. So, I just used the normal margin averages for Big 10 teams. For the other teams:
Big East: margin average -1.5
Big 12: margin average -2.4
ACC: margin average -3.5
Mountain West: margin average -3.8
Pac 12: margin average -4.2
SEC: margin average -4.5
Atlantic 10: margin average -5.9
Missouri Valley: margin average -7.7
West Coast: margin average -9.2
Conference USA: margin average -10.3
Horizon: margin average -11.8
Metro-Atlantic: margin average -12.1
Colonial: margin average -13.5
Sun Belt: margin -15.1
Ohio
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WAC Tournament Betting Preview
03.11.2013 03:36 PM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
WAC Tournament Preview
The WAC Tournament will be held at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas which is the same site as the WCC Tournament. It’ll be a 10-team field thanks to the additions of Denver, Seattle, UT-Arlington, UT-San Antonio, and Texas State. No. 1 seed Louisiana Tech was the class of this conference from start to finish but were exposed somewhat on a couple of very tough home courts, New Mexico State and Denver, to close out the regular season. The top six teams all receive byes to the quarterfinals – Louisiana Tech, Denver, New Mexico State, UTA, Utah State and Idaho. There will be two first round matchups on Tuesday with No. 7 Texas State vs. No. 10 Seattle and No. 8 San Jose State vs. No. 9 UTSA. On Thursday the 7-10 winner will play No. 2 Denver and the 8-9 winner will play No. 1 Louisiana Tech. Note that the off day on Wednesday due to the women's tournament may give the two lower seeded winners a slight boost.
First Round Pick: UT-San Antonio
Texas-San Antonio beating San Jose State would be a minor upset only based on seed. The Spartans have been a disaster since mid-January
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Ian Cameron
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College Basketball Betting Recap: Indiana wins Big Ten, Middle Tennessee shocked again
03.11.2013 07:20 AM
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Stat Intelligence
Let’s run the numbers from the three most talked about results of the day…
Indiana 72, Michigan 71
2-Point Percentage: Indiana 43%, Michigan 40%
3-Point Shooting: Indiana 7/16, Michigan 10/22
Free Throws: Indiana 5/9, Michigan 7/13
1’s and 2’s: Indiana 51, Michigan 41
Rebounds: Indiana 47, Michigan 26
Turnovers: Indiana 14, Michigan 6
(Indiana 2-2 in Kenpom, Sagarin; Michigan 11-9)
Indiana got the best of it in most of the numbers…so karma rewarded their performance with some good fortune at the end. Michigan just missed a layup and a tip-in in the final seconds that would have won the game. But…
*Michigan had to shoot 45% on treys just to be in the game, which is not something that should be counted on.
*Michigan missed the front end of two late one-and-one’s when they could have been sealing a trey-based victory
*Michigan was killed on the
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Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
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Colonial Conference Tournament Betting Preview
03.08.2013 12:48 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Colonial Conference Tournament Preview
What a year for the Colonial! Perennial heavyweight VCU bolted for the A-10. Old Dominion, who won back-to-back tournament titles in 2010 and 2011 and reached the semifinals last year, went 5-25 and fired its coach midseason. Preseason favorite George Mason finished fifth. Towson went from 1-31 to 18-13 but can't play in the postseason due to poor grades. UNC-Wilmington is also ineligible. Georgia State is leaving for the Sun Belt so wasn't invited. As a result of those three teams being out, Hofstra (7-23, 4-13) got in. And Northeastern won the regular season title despite being one of the luckiest teams on the planet for a month-long stretch. With the exception of George Mason (2008) and James Madison (1994), the remainder of the field has exactly zero Colonial Conference tournament titles.
First Round Pick:
Delaware played a tough non-conference schedule, battling with the likes of Villanova, Duke, Temple, Pitt, Virginia, and Kansas State. They acquitted themselves fairly well in those games and opened conference play 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS. Unfortunately, it was the kiss of the death. The Blue
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Sun Belt Conference Tournament Betting Preview
03.07.2013 12:19 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Preview
The Sun Belt Conference Tournament has a long history of craziness. Upsets happen with regularity, like last season when the top two seeds were bounced in their first game and the finals featured a No. 5 vs. No. 7 matchup. Of the last 12 teams to participate in the championship game, seven were a fourth seed or lower. On paper No. 1 Middle Tennessee State is as close to a lock as you can get to cut down the nets this conference tournament season. The Blue Raiders rolled through league play (14-2) last year and lost to No. 9 Arkansas State in the quarterfinals but this year’s edition is even stronger; a veteran club on a mission.
First Round Pick: North Texas
For much of the season, North Texas was an easy bet against. Longtime head coach Johnny Jones left for LSU, they had a ton of injuries, and Tony Mitchell underperformed. But the Mean Green have talent and a little bit of confidence having won four of six to close out the regular season. The also got point guard Chris Jones back. Jones missed practically all of January and February but returned and played the last two
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College Basketball Handicapping: Ken Pomery's conference tournament projections
03.07.2013 06:09 AM
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If you haven't already checked them out, here are Ken Pomeroy's
conference tournament projections
. He uses what is called Log5 – a Bill James formula designed to give the probability of a particular matchup. For example, Middle Tennessee State, the prohibitive favorite to win the Sun Belt Tournament, is 94.4% to reach the semifinals, 86.2% to reach the finals, and 75.6% to cut down the nets.
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: College Basketball's best against the spread
02.04.2013 11:06 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
The Super Bowl is in the rear view mirror after Sunday’s wild Baltimore victory, which can only mean one thing – college hoops is on center stage for the next eight weeks. I’ve been writing game previews for ESPN.com/Insider for the last month, but I’ve yet to write a true ‘college basketball overview’ column for any publication so far this season. That streak ends here.
I’m going take a look at the very best pointspread ‘regular board’ teams in the country in this week’s column. The list of ATS juggernauts is likely to surprise many people due to its diversity. Elite level teams aren’t necessarily pointspread winners, and bottom feeders can cash ticket after ticket if the betting markets set numbers that allow them to hang within the number as big underdogs. Look no further than the single best ATS team in the nation so far this season.
I’ll wager that less than a dozen people in the country knew that Fordham is the #1 ATS team in all of DI basketball this year; 14-5 against the number. The Rams are 6-16 SU, just 2-5 in Atlantic-10 play.
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