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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals

06.20.2018     09:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Texas (Bibens-dirkx) at Kansas City (Junis) -115 O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Kansas City

On most nights, it's tough to make a case for betting the Kansas City Royals who are currently 22-51 with a MLB-worst -1.9 run differential. Over their last 20 games, the Royals have won only four times. And in terms of profits, KC is down over -22 units on the season. But while there's little to like about the team, there are things to like about tonight's starter Jake Junis. With a plus breaking pitch, Junis entered June with a 3.61 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning rate. His numbers are now skewed some due to back-to-back poor outings but they were perhaps explainable. After posting a 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K outing vs. Oakland he was forced to face the A's again five days later. They got to him for six runs, including three that left the yard. And last time out, he was tasked with facing the best offense in MLB as the Astros smoked him for six runs and, again, three dingers. Tonight is a much more favorable matchup in large part because Texas has never faced the young right-hander. Meanwhile, the Rangers just recalled Austin Bibens-Dirkx who made Read more

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Kansas City Royals Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers

06.12.2018     10:41 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Texas (Colon) at Los Anegels (Ferguson) -175 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

My clients and I have been cashing winners betting the Dodgers Over the total in recent days, and there’s little reason to expect a dramatically different result from LA’s hot lineup against Bartolo Colon tonight.

To say that the Dodgers bats are on fire right now would not be an overstatement. LA has scored 11, 12, 10, 5, 9, 8, 7, 3 and 7 runs in their last nine ballgames, cashing eight Overs in the process. Just about every power bat that Dave Roberts has at his disposal is crushing the ball. LA has hit three home runs or more seven times in nine June games while leading the majors (by far) with 26 dingers already this month.

That’s bad news for Bartolo Colon, who needed 97 pitches to labor through five innings of work in his last outing. Colon is extremely vulnerable to the home run ball, allowing 16 bombs in just 71.1 innings of work so far this season. Current Dodgers have hit .288 against him with five home runs in a decent sample size of 104 at bats. Behind Colon, the Rangers bullpen has already taken 11 losses this Read more

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Los Angeles Dodgers Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners

05.28.2018     07:48 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Texas (Fister) +150 at Seattle (Gonzales) O/U 8
Recommendation: Texas

Weekend sweep of Minnesota was a pretty impressive feat by the banged up Mariners. The cumulative 9-5 final score for the three game series displays Seattle’s current need to pitch extremely well in order to win games. Their depleted lineup was missing another solid piece yesterday when SS Jean Segura was held out due to a possible concussion. He went through the protocol and is likely going to be held out today as a precautionary measure. Newly acquired OF Denard Span figures to make his Seattle debut and it will be interesting to see if his insertion isn’t more disruptive than helpful since he’ll probably replace currently hot Ben Gamel (7-for-15 last 4 games). The good news for Seattle is the rest closer Edwin Diaz was able to get yesterday after working four of the last five games. Alex Colome who came over with Span in the trade with the Rays picked up the save yesterday and now really fortifies the back third of the M’s bullpen.

Texas has quietly heated up offensively with an .841 OPS the past week which was the third highest Read more

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Seattle Mariners Rob Veno

MLB Handicapping: Understanding the profile for the best and worst teams to bet on

05.21.2018     11:38 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Finding the perfect MLB "betting profile" can be tricky. The best teams who post impressive run differentials and a top-tier statistics are almost always well accounted for in the betting markets. It's tough to support these teams with traditional moneyline bets when they are routinely laying north of -200. On the flip side, the worst teams flatout struggle to win. A 65-win team needs to be priced, on average, +150 in order just to break even. Below we broke down the best and worst teams from a profits perspective over the last five seasons. To no surprise, the most common ingredient is under- and over-achievement based on preseason expectations. For example, Arizona was lined at 77.5 wins last season and won 93 games. Meanwhile, San Francisco undershot its win total by 24 games, hence it's historic -37.8 units. Another factor, is "luck." In 2016, Texas won 95 games but "should" have been at or near .500 based on its miniscule +0.2 run differential. The markets never caved on the Rangers' soft statistical profile; they were on average a -106 favorite. In fact, if you combined both 2015 and 2016, Texas went 188-141 +58.9 units. Their pythagorean W-L during that span was 165-159 Read more

Tags: MLB

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers

05.07.2018     10:34 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Detroit (Fulmer) at Texas (Moore) -110 O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Under

Short card tonight in MLB but not short in opportunities including this one. Tigers begin a three game set in Arlington fresh off an unproductive four game series in Kansas City where they lost three and also developed a widespread case of clubhouse flu symptoms. Already down hot hitting offensive leader Miguel Cabrera, Detroit’s second best threat Nick Castellanos was relegated to pinch-hitting duties because of the flu yesterday. Along with that, third baseman and #2 hitter Jeimer Candelario was out due to a jammed thumb and today it’s being reported by the Dallas Morning News that SS Jose Iglesias could miss tonight’s game due to an ankle injury. All added up, that’s Detroit’s 2-4 hitters plus their best defensive player who could all be out tonight. One look at yesterday’s lineup shows how shaky the Tigers are on offense right now. They only scored seven runs in the three games after Cabrera went down this weekend and over their last 12 games they’ve been held to three or less 10 times. That should bode well for Read more

Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers Texas Rangers Rob Veno

Bettor cashes in over $1 million on Pick 5

05.07.2018     08:39 AM     Printer Friendly
A Texas woman cashed in on Saturday's Pick 5 which included Kentucky Derby winner Justify. Four of her five selections were 10-1 or better but what boosted her winnings to a cool $1.4 million was a 40-1 longshot in the 10th race. 

Tags: Horse Racing

MLB Handicapping: National League hold rare Interleague edge

05.07.2018     08:31 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Interleague play really ramps up this week with five different series. Recent history has shown consistent profits for the American League. From 2012-17, including the World Series, the AL won an average of just over +12 units per season. That trend has been bucked thus far in 2018 with the National League holding a 24-13 +14.3 edge. Also note that AL teams currently own four of the worst five records in MLB and those four teams have combined to play only four of the 37 interleague games. Baltimore and Texas (21-47 combined) have yet to play an interleague series.

American League Interleague Records/Units
2012: 141-114 +16.4
2013: 158-148 -1.3
2014: 166-141 +14.6
2015: 171-134 +22.9
2016: 168-139 +12.7
2017: 164-143 +7.3
2018: 13-24 -16.6

Tags: MLB

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers

05.04.2018     10:27 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Boston (Porcello) at Texas (Colon) +165 O/U 9
Recommendation: Texas

The betting markets want no part of Bartolo Colon against the potent Red Sox lineup. At 44 years old, without much of a strikeout pitch, Colon is routinely disregarded by the wiseguys. Due to his flyball ways and his lack of strikeouts, Colon’s FIP is more than a full run higher than his ERA. No surprise, then, that he’s been an underdog in every previous start this season.

Colon is coming off a quality start at Toronto, cashing as a +155 underdog. He had a perfect game through seven innings against the potent Astros lineup. The Rangers lineup behind him is clicking right now, coming off an 11 run outburst last night; pounding out 47 runs while going 5-3 in their last eight ballgames. It’s surely worth noting that four of those five wins came at an underdog price of +140 or higher, and the fifth came in pick ‘em priced game – right now, this Texas team is showing real signs of profitability. And it’s surely worth noting that the Rangers bullpen is rested and ready tonight after a rough series in Cleveland to open the Read more

Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels

05.03.2018     08:21 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Baltimore (Tillman) at Los Angeles (Barria) -185 O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Over

Rare situation for Baltimore's Chris Tillman who enters tonight's matchup vs. the Angels off not only a quality start but also a win. Between his last win which came on May 7, 2017 and last Friday's victory over the Tigers, Tillman had allowed exactly 100 earned runs over 105.1 innings. This season's draw has been a tough one with the veteran righty facing Houston, New York, and Boston all on the road as well as Cleveland. But there are no indications that sustained success is on the horizon, even against more favorable opponents in pitcher friendly parks. In fact, Tillman's average fastball against the Tigers was only 88 MPH; the lowest mark of his 10-year career. Twenty-one-year-old Jaime Barria projects to be part of the Angels' rotation in the future. The righty isn't overpowering but flashed a sub-3.00 ERA over three minor league levels last year and got the win in his debut at Texas going five innings and allowed only one run. He was however smacked around in his second outing (2 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER vs. San Francisco) and was sent back down to Triple-A. Read more

Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Angels OTTO Sports

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays

04.27.2018     09:34 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Texas (Minor) at Toronto (Stroman) -150 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Toronto

The Rangers took a flyer on veteran Mike Minor and he's delivered thus far with a 3.86 ERA through four starts. Minor's early success, however, doesn't look sustainable. The strikeout rate is fine (8.57 per 9) but he's allowed 40 fly balls and only two have left the yard. This will mark a second turn against the Blue Jays. When Houston saw Minor for a second time, he coughed up five runs in five innings and fanned only two. Marcus Stroman has no doubt been unlucky with a .350 BABIP, 69.4% GB rate and 20% FB/HR rate. But there are still signs for concern. According to FanGraphs, Stroman's career "hard hit rate" is around 30%. This season, it's 50%. He also owns the fourth-highest exit velocity in MLB at 94.2 MPH. Last season, it was 88.5. Adding to my worries is Stroman's command issues. He's walked 14 batters in only 20 innings. It suggests than he either doesn't trust his stuff to come in the zone or something is physically wrong which may be the case as the soon-to-be 27-year-old righty dealt with shoulder issues during spring training. This will also mark a Read more

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Andrew Lange


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