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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An in-depth look at the Kansas City Chiefs
06.17.2013 10:10 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
It’s never too early to start talking NFL. While the casual bettor may not pay attention until the start of the preseason in August, the wiseguys here in Vegas have already done their homework, ready to take advantage of early NFL betting opportunities as they present themselves over the next few months.
I’ve been waiting patiently for the NFL Season Wins market to mature, but that isn’t happening quickly – most of the notable offshores have not posted Over/Under win totals yet, leaving Vegas as the only active market right now. So, instead of writing about season wins over the next two weeks, I’ll be writing about two teams that set the tone for the entire market – the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.
I’ve chosen the Chiefs and the Ravens very specifically, because those two teams are the best examples of what the market looks for when adjusting power ratings way up or way down from one season to the next. Why are the markets so high on Kansas City and so low on Baltimore to enter the 2013 preseason? Read on to find out. This week, I’ll take an in depth look at the Chiefs.
Kansas City
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Kansas City Chiefs
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Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bet Recommendation: Baltimore Total Sacks
01.31.2013 08:03 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Baltimore Total Sacks
Recommendation: Under 2 (-130 @ 5Dimes)
San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick was sacked three times or more in three games this season. In his first real extended playing time of his career, Kaepernick was brought down three times against St. Louis, who finished second in the NFL in sacks. The Rams got to him again three times in Week 13 and Miami, another above average pass rush, took him down four times. Other than that, including both postseason games, Kaepernick was sacked either once or not at all. Baltimore posted a league average 37 sacks during the regular season. En route to the Super Bowl, they notched three apiece against Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck – two of the least mobile quarterbacks in the league. And against Tom Brady, who also isn't very swift and threw the ball 54 times, the Ravens came up empty in the sack department. To lose this bet, Baltimore will need to record three sacks. I don’t see that happening.
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Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl XLVII
Andrew Lange
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Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bet Recommendation: Total Interceptions by Both Teams
01.29.2013 06:57 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Total Interceptions by Both Teams
Recommendation: Over 1.5 (-105 @ 5Dimes)
Baltimore has faced a trio of strong quarterbacks and passing attacks in the playoffs thus far. Despite allowing a rather hefty 286.7 passing yards per game this postseason, the Ravens have been a successful ball hawking secondary. Versus Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, Baltimore has come up with five interceptions mostly due to physical coverage and an active defensive line. Batted balls by Ravens defensive linemen frustrated the 6-5 Brady in the AFC Championship including a key fourth quarter interception. The active, arms up approach of Baltimore’s defensive line has now seen three straight above average sized quarterbacks and should be able to create a couple of opportunities against 6-6 Colin Kaepernick who doesn’t have an extremely high release point. Ravens cornerbacks Corey Graham and Cary Williams along with veteran free safety Ed Reed are all capable of capitalizing on whatever chances are created.
For San Francisco it has been a different story in the playoffs as they’ve yet to come up with an interception. However, they had
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Super Bowl XLVII
Rob Veno
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Overlooked Super Bowl XLVII Handicapping Factor: Baltimore's Disruptive Defense
01.25.2013 07:04 AM
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Stat Intelligence
We’re still early in the hype sequence for this year’s Super Bowl. But, already, it’s pretty clear that the main stories are going to be:
The Harbaugh brother angle
Colin Kaepernick and related Kaepernickia
Joe Flacco breaking through to “elite” status
Ray Lewis’s retirement
Something I think has been overlooked so far (and I'm including myself in this) is the role Baltimore’s defense has played in disrupting opposing quarterbacks so far in the playoffs. You regulars know that I developed a ridiculously simple stat for eyeballing how clean or sloppy an offense is playing…or, from the other perspective, how clean or sloppy an opposing defense allows an offense to play.
Sloppiness: 5 times turnovers…plus the number of incomplete passes
I’m pleased that so many have agreed with me that this is a great stat for painting the picture of a game, even if it is embarrassingly
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Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl XLVII
Stat Intelligence
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NBA Handicapping: Schedule has Houston Rockets running on fumes
01.19.2013 07:12 AM
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Stat Intelligence
You’re about to see what fatigue looks like statistically!
Last week we talked about the brutal schedule stretch that was coming up for the Houston Rockets. They had just defeated the Los Angeles Lakers. But, they were about to embark on a two-week odyssey that would see them play two different four-game-in-five-night stretches with the vast majority of action on the road.
We then suggested the team hit a wall in the fourth quarter in New Orleans the next night (when they were outscored 29-10 to blow a big lead). Then, we monitored developments through the week as the Rockets continued to lose. Tonight’s 105-95 loss at Indiana continued the story. And, I’ve come up with a way that may be the best illustration of what happens to the Rockets when they get tired (for other teams, it may show up in other categories).
First, a quick review of the gauntlet to this point…
Last Tuesday: Big Win over Lakers
Last Wednesday: Died in
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Proposed Las Vegas stadium an ideal fit for NFL games/team
01.17.2013 06:24 AM
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So Las Vegas wants to build some sort of "Mega Events Center" similar to that of Cowboys Stadium. If built, said facility would obviously have the capabilities to host football games. What's funny is that those backing the plan aren't asking the NFL to do something logical like pull the plug on Jacksonville or go the expansion route. Instead, they're starting small, like playing host to a preseason game, or the pro bowl. If that works and Bill Belichick and Tom Brady aren’t involved in some elaborate point shaving scandal, then maybe the NFL would warm up to the idea of placing a franchise in Sin City. The odds on that happening? Not good,
according to some
.
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Championship News and Quotes
01.14.2013 07:59 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
We’re down to the Final Four in the NFL Playoffs, with two compelling championship game matchups set for next Sunday. I’ve spent all year writing about these teams using my own words. This week, I thought it would make an interesting read to focus on the numerous quotes offered by various players and coaches. Who’s saying what heading into the biggest games of the season? In Part II, we take a look at the AFC Championship with New England a 9-point favorite vs. Baltimore.
Click here for the NFC
.
New England Patriots
– All the Patriots quotes come straight out of ‘Coach Speak 101’ – New England is not a great team for publicizing what’s going on internally, and they certainly won’t say anything to give their opponent any sort of motivational edge. That being said, there was legitimate concern on the roster following the season ending injury for their top red zone threat, tight end Rob Gronkowski.
Tom Brady following his NFL
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Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the AFC's Final Four
01.07.2013 08:02 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.
It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21 Unders compared to 19 Overs. But over the last two years, it’s 7-1 to the Over. In the two years before that, it was 6-2 to the Under. In the two years prior to that, Overs and Unders
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Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
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Teddy Covers
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Northwestern Wildcats at Baylor Bears
12.04.2012 11:27 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Northwestern
at
Baylor
-10.5 O/U 133.5
Recommendation: Baylor
Northwestern was overwhelmed by Baylor’s size and athleticism last year, thoroughly whipped in a 69-41 home loss to the Bears. Don’t expect a dramatically different result in tonight’s rematch – the Wildcats deficiencies are likely to be on full display once again this evening.
The Wildcats were annihilated on their home floor by Maryland in the ACC-Big Ten showdown last week, losing by 20. It didn’t get any better last weekend, when Northwestern held Illinois-Chicago to 31% shooting, won the rebounding battle by 13 and STILL lost at home by six as double-digit favorites. Head coach Bill Carmody has limited depth once again, bad news against an athletic, fast paced squad like Baylor. And the Bears have seen (and defended) Carmody’s Princeton offense before – don’t expect the Wildcats scoring woes to end against this
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Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Looking at the contenders in the AFC
12.03.2012 09:49 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
I spent the last few Sunday’s concentrating on some pretty bad football teams. It’s December now; time to shift my focus towards the other end of the spectrum. This week, I focused on four AFC Playoff contenders. Which teams have the potential to do some damage when January rolls around and which are frauds? Read on to find out!
Indianapolis
- Indy is certainly not a Super Bowl contender. But given that they were seven point underdogs at 4-7 Detroit, the betting markets aren’t even calling the Colts a playoff caliber team. Even with starting cornerback Vontae Davis back in the lineup following a four game injury absence, the pass defense spent all afternoon getting torched. Where's the pass rush? Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were non-factors here.
The offensive line got dominated by Detroit’s front four for most of the afternoon. Andrew Luck was beaten up, taking one big hit after the next. Coming into the game with four fumbles and 10 INTs in five previous road games, Luck's emphasis was on ball security here. That emphasis didn’t work. He hit seven different receivers in the first half, but also threw a pair
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Teddy Covers
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