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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Updating NFL Regular Season O/U Wins

11.16.2015     08:05 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I write a lot about NFL Win Totals and NFL Divisional Odds throughout the summer months; my preferred methodology for discussing the upcoming season.  As we approach Thanksgiving, with Week 10 in the books and the final bye weeks coming up this weekend, it’s a good opportunity to take a look at how those wagers are faring heading into the homestretch of the 2015 campaign.

The very first NFL season win bets cashed this past weekend.  Dallas fell to 2-7, ensuring that the Cowboys cannot go Over their 9.5 game win total.  Carolina improved to 9-0, cashing their Over 8.5 win total from last summer.  Seattle fell to 4-5.  Even if the Seahawks win all of their remaining games, they can do no better than push their 11 game win total. 

It’s a similar story with Baltimore, sitting at 2-7 now, with a win total of 9 from last summer.  A 7-0 Ravens run to end the season would only produce a push for Over bettors. And while I write this column before Monday Night Football kicks off, the Bengals are in prime position to cash their Over 8.5 win total, 8-0 now and sitting as double digit favorites against the Texans.

A Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at New England Patriots

10.22.2015     08:19 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
NY Jets at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -9.5 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -8.5 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: New York

Surprising start by the Jets has made this a meaningful early season matchup with first place in the AFC East at stake. Each is already 1-0 against division foes and each ranks as the NFL’s #1 team in opposite categories. New York is tops in average points allowed (15.0 ppg) while the Patriots are #1 in average points scored (36.6 ppg). Adding to the positive differences between these teams is that fact that Football Outsiders website ranks New England as the #1 run blocking offensive line in the league and the Jets as the #1 pass protecting line. The contrasts make handicapping the fundamental aspects of this game extremely important but there are situational and historical angles that are relevant here too. Weather does not figure to be a factor in Foxboro this Sunday.    

The Jets stingy defense gained some more strength when DT Sheldon Richardson returned from his suspension last week. Now in his second week of Read more

Tags: NFL New York Jets New England Patriots Rob Veno

College Football Betting Preview: Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines

10.15.2015     11:29 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Michigan State at Michigan
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Michigan -6.5 O/U 41
CRIS Current: Michigan -7.5 O/U 42
Recommendation: Michigan State

This is a fascinating game; a contest where the contrasts between Las Vegas and the mainstream college football world are on full display for everyone to see.  The pointspread itself has been a major issue in social media discussion this week, with the Wolverines getting bet up as high as -8.5 before some buyback on the Spartans, driving the line back down to the current -7.5 number as I write this on Thursday morning.  Of course, Michigan State is ranked at #4 in the Coaches Poll, while Michigan is #14, giving ill-informed TV commentators the right to call it an upset if Michigan wins the game – even if the Wolverines don’t cover the spread.

Last week at this time, the lookahead line at the Westgate Superbook here in Vegas for Michigan State – Michigan was sitting at pick ‘em.  Then Michigan did what they’ve been doing all year – blowing out foes in bad spots.  And Michigan State did Read more

Tags: College Football Michigan State Spartans Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Preview: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

10.09.2015     09:52 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
New England at Dallas
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -7 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -8 O/U 49.5
Recommendation: New England

Dallas lost to New Orleans last Sunday Night due to two primary factors.  First, their passing game with Brandon Weeden behind center instead of Tony Romo and Dez Bryant sidelined has been borderline inept.  That’s not going to change with an extra week of practice, nor will their QB play improve dramatically if Weeden gets benched for the just acquired Matt Cassel, who has crashed and burned at every previous NFL stop since his one successful season in New England back in 2008.

Second, the Cowboys very thin defense has become an injury riddled mess; a factor that won’t change significantly even with Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain expected to make their season debuts this week following NFL mandated four game suspensions for both guys.  A Cowboys secondary that couldn’t stop Matt Ryan two weeks ago or Drew Brees last week is ill prepared to stop Tom Brady and the Patriots devastating short passing attack this Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Dallas Cowboys Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: New England currently a consensus TD favorite over Pittsburgh

09.10.2015     07:05 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The NFL regular season kicks off tonight with New England playing host to Pittsburgh. Since the summer this line has bounced around due to the unknown status of Tom Brady. With Brady cleared to play, the Patriots reopened -6.5/-7. Recent New England money now has the game -7 across the board both offshore and in Las Vegas. The total ranges from 51.5 to the 52.5. The public of course likes the home chalk (67% according to Sports Options) with even more love towards the over (83%).

Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers New England Patriots

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Power Ratings 1-32

09.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The NFL regular season starts on Thursday.  Here’s how I have the 32 teams ranked heading into the campaign, with a quick blurb each squad.

1. New England Patriots - With Tom Brady set to open the season as the starting quarterback, the defending champs are the team to beat, worthy of my #1 ranking heading into the regular season.

2. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle enjoyed the best yards-per-rush differential between offense and defense last year, but they’ve got significant offensive line question marks as they head to St Louis for Week 1.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers passing game was second to none in the NFL last year, but the loss of Jordy Nelson leaves Aaron Rodgers without his top target for the entire season.

4. Indianapolis Colts - Most elite contenders face a tougher than average schedule because they’ve got to face other contending teams.  Indy, however, plays only four games against playoff teams from last year.

5. Denver Broncos - Peyton Manning is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL by a wide margin, and he’s coming off a season where his arm strength noticeably declined down the Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Update: New England Patriots now favored to win AFC title

09.04.2015     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly

Update on New England's future odds courtesy of The Greek now that Tom Brady has been cleared to play.

Odds to Win Super Bowl 50: +550

Odds to Win AFC Championship: +285

Odds to Win AFC East: -285

Season Over/Under Wins: 10.5ov-145

NFL MVP: Tom Brady +2000

NFL Gambling Alert: Brady cleared to play; Pats -6.5/-7 vs. Steelers Week 1

09.03.2015     07:54 AM     View Original Blog

So this just happened. Tom Brady's suspension was officially lifted which means he'll suit up for Week 1's game Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots

NFL Gambling Alert: Brady cleared to play; Pats -6.5/-7 vs. Steelers Week 1

09.03.2015     07:54 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
So this just happened. Tom Brady's suspension was officially lifted which means he'll suit up for Week 1's game vs. Pittsburgh. It also means oddsmakers are scrambling to post an updated pointspread. CG Technology originally opened the game New England -6.5 back in April before Deflategate went public. Assuming Brady would be suspended, the Pats hovered around -2.5/-3. Now that Brady has been cleared to play CG reopened -6 and it was later bet up to -6.5. Pinnacle reopened -7 where it currently stands. Same deal for Heritage and BetOnline. Las Vegas' William Hill is -6.5.

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Handicapping: Las Vegas oddsmakers react to Deflategate

08.05.2015     01:42 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers talk about Tom Brady's suspension and how it has impacted their lines as well as placing limits on New England's season over/under wins.

"Home team, capable backup [quarterback]," Rood said in explaining New England's favored status in the opener. "We've put some strong limits on it. If Brady plays, that number could jump to six."

"From what I'm hearing, Jimmy G is going to be more than a capable replacement and [Patriots Coach Bill] Belichick usually always gets his guys ready to go," Rood said about the 10 1/2 number.

"What I don't want to do is have a knee-jerk reaction."

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Las Vegas

NFL Gambling Update: Brady suspended first four games of regular season

07.28.2015     02:31 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Looks like the New England Patriots really won't have Tom Brady the first four games of the regular season (vs. Pittsburgh, at Buffalo, vs. Jacksonville, and at Dallas). The NFL announced today that the suspension was upheld. As a result, there isn't much in the way of betting options for New England's Week 1 game vs. the Steelers. CRIS never posted a line. Pinnacle, Heritage, and 5Dimes took it down in early July (New England -3). As of today, CG Technology looks to be the only sportsbooks offering a real pointspread with the Patriots dropped from -3-120 to -1.5 following the news.

"The Commissioner's decision is deeply disappointing, but not surprising because the appeal process was thoroughly lacking in procedural fairness," Brady's agent, Don Yee, said Tuesday. "Most importantly, neither Tom nor the Patriots did anything wrong. And the NFL has no evidence that anything inappropriate occurred. The appeal process was a sham, resulting in the Commissioner rubber-stamping his own decision."

Tags: NFL New England Patriots


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