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NFL Handicapping: Sportsbook adjusts odds following Brady suspension

04.26.2016     08:33 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Sportsbooks have reacted to the news of Tom Brady's four-game suspension. New England is still priced among the favorites to win Super Bowl LI but Week 1's game at Arizona went from a pick 'em to +4.5 at CG Technology. Following Week 1, the Patriots play three consecutive home games (vs. Miami, vs. Houston, and vs. Buffalo) and are projected to be -3 favorites or higher in all three sans Brady.




Tags: NFL New England Patriots




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: The Secret Truth About the NFL

04.25.2016     08:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Everybody is talking about quarterbacks, with the NFL draft upcoming, starting on Thursday.  In recent weeks, both the St Louis Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles paid a steep price to move up to #1 and #2. The expectations are that California's Jared Goff and North Dakota State's Carson Wentz will go with the top two picks, although their draft order is still up in the air. 

If things go well with those two picks, the Rams and Eagles will be set up for the long term with above average quarterbacks.  If things go poorly with those two picks, the Rams and Eagles will be steady, consistent losers until the next time they draft a QB in the first round.  In fact, that’s exactly where the Rams have just been since they picked Sam Bradford #1 overall back in 2010.

The advanced metric pundits are all screaming bad deal for the two teams that traded up, and great deal for the two teams that traded down (Tennessee and Cleveland).  And the history of QB’s going #1 and #2 in the draft hasn’t seen two above average quarterbacks in those spots since 1971. 

Here’s the list:
2015- Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Conference Championship Preview

01.18.2016     09:37 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
March Madness has a lock on the Final Four terminology, but we’re down to the final four teams standing in the NFL Playoffs following a wild weekend of football.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a look at how the Final Four teams still standing this NFL season survived, and what their realistic chances of Super Bowl success are moving forward into the Conference Championship Games this coming weekend.

Denver was outgained by more than two full yards per PLAY against the Steelers.  It was not vintage Peyton Manning, to put it mildly: 37 pass attempts for 215 yards, with only two passes all afternoon gaining more than 15 yards.  If you were watching the game, you already know how many missed connections that Manning had with his receivers – no shortage of inaccurate passes and dropped balls.  With the exception of one explosive 34-yard run by CJ Anderson, Denver’s running game wasn’t much better.  Anderson and Ronnie Hillman’s other 30 carries combined for just 76 yards.

But the Broncos avoided mistakes, playing turnover free football; the first time as a starter all season in which Manning Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Denver Broncos Arizona Cardinas Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Evaluating the health of the remaining eight NFL playoff teams

01.11.2016     10:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wild Card weekend is in the rear view mirror, with all four road teams emerging victorious on the opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs.  One game was a blowout, with the Chiefs destroying the Texans.  Two games were coin flips that came down to last second field goals, with the Steelers making their field goal while the Vikings missed theirs, allowing Seattle to survive and advance.  And the fourth game was a close contest that turned into a blowout by the end of the fourth quarter thanks to a performance from Green Bay that was as good as anything that we’ve seen from the Packers since October.

The mainstream media will focus on the quarterbacks and the head coaches, because that’s what the mainstream media does.  In the mainstream world, Andy Reid; noted for a decade worth of playoff failures in Philadelphia, is now a genius because his team is on an 11-game winning streak.  Aaron Rodgers, off the worst statistical season of his career, is now back to his elite self; thanks to one playoff win against a banged up defense. 

Serious bettors know one thing about the NFL Playoffs – health matters!  Do the Read more



Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs New England Patriots Green Bay Packers Arizona Cardinals Seattle Seahawks Carolina Panthers Pittsburgh Steelers Denver Broncos Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Narrowing down the Super Bowl 50 contenders

12.28.2015     08:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This is my last Wiseguy Report of the year.  That leaves me with two choices – a look back column or a look forward one. I’m a big fan of post-mortems following every NFL betting week; looking to learn from both winners and losers.  But when it comes to looking back over a whole season or a full year?  It’s harder (for me at least) to learn lessons in the aggregate; much easier when I condense those lessons down to individual games. 

After all, that’s what a season is – dozens of individual betting decisions; made one at a time.  So, while I’ve enjoyed one of the best NFL seasons of my handicapping career, there’s no point in looking back.

Sure, we can identify the worst beat of the year, that’s always fun.  I’d nominate anyone who had Lions and Under when they led Green Bay wire-to-wire on Thursday Night Football….until Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary touchdown pass with no time left on the clock that turned Lions and Under into Packers and Over.  Apologies to anyone who had St Louis plus the points at Green Bay in Week 5, a close second on my list.  But the better way Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL quarterback situations late season theme for bettors

12.14.2015     10:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL is a quarterback driven league, and QB play (both good and bad) was the difference in the vast majority of games played this past weekend.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take an overview of some of the ongoing QB situations in the NFL.  The goal?  Identify undervalued and overvalued quarterbacks (and therefore, teams) to wager on or against during the stretch run of the season. 

Let’s start with the biggest injury of the weekend, when Cincinnati Bengals star Andy Dalton went down with a thumb injury after making a tackle following a red zone interception on the Bengals first drive.  Dalton has developed a well-deserved reputation as a bet-on QB in the regular season, despite his repeated postseason failures.  This has been, by far, his best year as a pro.  Dalton had a 106.3 QB rating when he got hurt, well above his previous career best of 88.8.  He’d thrown a career low seven interceptions and averaged a career high 8.4 yards per attempt, spreading the ball around to Cinci’s bevy of skill position weapons.  It’s an impact injury, for sure!

Former Alabama QB AJ Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Updating NFL Regular Season O/U Wins

11.16.2015     08:05 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write a lot about NFL Win Totals and NFL Divisional Odds throughout the summer months; my preferred methodology for discussing the upcoming season.  As we approach Thanksgiving, with Week 10 in the books and the final bye weeks coming up this weekend, it’s a good opportunity to take a look at how those wagers are faring heading into the homestretch of the 2015 campaign.

The very first NFL season win bets cashed this past weekend.  Dallas fell to 2-7, ensuring that the Cowboys cannot go Over their 9.5 game win total.  Carolina improved to 9-0, cashing their Over 8.5 win total from last summer.  Seattle fell to 4-5.  Even if the Seahawks win all of their remaining games, they can do no better than push their 11 game win total. 

It’s a similar story with Baltimore, sitting at 2-7 now, with a win total of 9 from last summer.  A 7-0 Ravens run to end the season would only produce a push for Over bettors. And while I write this column before Monday Night Football kicks off, the Bengals are in prime position to cash their Over 8.5 win total, 8-0 now and sitting as double digit favorites against the Texans.

A Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at New England Patriots

10.22.2015     08:19 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Jets at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -9.5 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -8.5 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: New York

Surprising start by the Jets has made this a meaningful early season matchup with first place in the AFC East at stake. Each is already 1-0 against division foes and each ranks as the NFL’s #1 team in opposite categories. New York is tops in average points allowed (15.0 ppg) while the Patriots are #1 in average points scored (36.6 ppg). Adding to the positive differences between these teams is that fact that Football Outsiders website ranks New England as the #1 run blocking offensive line in the league and the Jets as the #1 pass protecting line. The contrasts make handicapping the fundamental aspects of this game extremely important but there are situational and historical angles that are relevant here too. Weather does not figure to be a factor in Foxboro this Sunday.    

The Jets stingy defense gained some more strength when DT Sheldon Richardson returned from his suspension last week. Now in his second week of Read more



Tags: NFL New York Jets New England Patriots Rob Veno




College Football Betting Preview: Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines

10.15.2015     11:29 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Michigan State at Michigan
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Michigan -6.5 O/U 41
CRIS Current: Michigan -7.5 O/U 42
Recommendation: Michigan State

This is a fascinating game; a contest where the contrasts between Las Vegas and the mainstream college football world are on full display for everyone to see.  The pointspread itself has been a major issue in social media discussion this week, with the Wolverines getting bet up as high as -8.5 before some buyback on the Spartans, driving the line back down to the current -7.5 number as I write this on Thursday morning.  Of course, Michigan State is ranked at #4 in the Coaches Poll, while Michigan is #14, giving ill-informed TV commentators the right to call it an upset if Michigan wins the game – even if the Wolverines don’t cover the spread.

Last week at this time, the lookahead line at the Westgate Superbook here in Vegas for Michigan State – Michigan was sitting at pick ‘em.  Then Michigan did what they’ve been doing all year – blowing out foes in bad spots.  And Michigan State did Read more



Tags: College Football Michigan State Spartans Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

10.09.2015     09:52 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Dallas
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -7 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -8 O/U 49.5
Recommendation: New England

Dallas lost to New Orleans last Sunday Night due to two primary factors.  First, their passing game with Brandon Weeden behind center instead of Tony Romo and Dez Bryant sidelined has been borderline inept.  That’s not going to change with an extra week of practice, nor will their QB play improve dramatically if Weeden gets benched for the just acquired Matt Cassel, who has crashed and burned at every previous NFL stop since his one successful season in New England back in 2008.

Second, the Cowboys very thin defense has become an injury riddled mess; a factor that won’t change significantly even with Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain expected to make their season debuts this week following NFL mandated four game suspensions for both guys.  A Cowboys secondary that couldn’t stop Matt Ryan two weeks ago or Drew Brees last week is ill prepared to stop Tom Brady and the Patriots devastating short passing attack this Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Dallas Cowboys Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jun 29, 2016 07:28 AM.