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October

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NFL Handicapping: New England's offense limited to small ball

09.16.2014     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Despite picking up an easy 30-7 road win over the Vikings, concerns remain about New England's offense moving forward. The Patriots rank 30th in the league at 4.3 yards per play and dead last at 5.1 yards per pass. One of the contributing factors appears to be Tom Brady's declining arm strength. As a result, everything thus far has been pretty much dink-and-dunk. Great article from the Boston Globe that expands on some of this ineptitude.


The Patriots basically conceded that they can’t pass the ball down the field, and took the ball out of Brady’s hands on several third-and-long opportunities. On third and 8 in the first quarter, he handed off to Vereen for 7 yards. On second and 18, they ran a draw to Vereen for 7 yards. The next play, on third and 11, Brady threw a bubble screen to Edelman that didn’t gain any yards. On third and 19 from the 21-yard line in the second half, they again ran an inside draw to Vereen.





Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Handicapping: New England's offensive line faces another tough front seven

09.09.2014     01:37 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England -3 at Minnesota O/U 49

Last week against Miami, New England's offensive line was manhandled for much of the game. The Dolphins recorded four sacks on Tom Brady and a ton of hurries. This week's opponent, Minnesota, present a similar challenge. The Vikings notched five sacks and helped force two interceptions in their 34-6 domination of the Rams. New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels couldn’t pinpoint the exact root of the problem but pointed to the heat on humidity of Miami as a contributing factor.


“I don’t think there was one thing in particular,” McDaniels said. “I think you have to do a good job of being technically sound in terms of your protection to avoid pressure on the passer, obviously. Give credit to Miami; they deserve it. They did a good Read more



Tags: MLB New England Patriots Minnesota Vikings Miami Dolphins




College Football Betting Preview: Michigan Wolverines at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

09.03.2014     11:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Michigan at Notre Dame
Saturday, 4:30 pm PT - NBC
CRIS Opener:
Notre Dame -4.5 O/U 54.5
CRIS Current: Notre Dame -3.5 O/U 56
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Notre Dame -4
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

Michigan has won and covered four of the last five meetings between these two teams, taking control of what had been a very competitive series in recent seasons.   In fact, prior to the Wolverines recent success, the taking the underdog plus the points had been the prevailing theme, winning outright in nine of the previous 12 meetings.   And, of course, with Michigan catching points in South Bend on Saturday, the trends clearly point towards the Wolverines as live underdogs here.

The Wolverines went through an ugly 0-5 SU and ATS run as an underdog heading into last November, but they covered three straight in that role down the stretch last year, finally showing success Read more


Tags: College Football Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Notre Dame Fighting Irish Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC East Reg Flags

09.02.2014     07:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Bettors react strongly to the NFL Preseason.  First string offenses that look good in August tend to attract betting market support.  The markets are much less reactive to defensive success or failure compared to offensive production.  And bettors tend to largely ignore coaching gameplans; unable to differentiate between coaches who were aggressively trying to set a tone for winning or whether their primary focus was on roster evaluation and personnel decisions.

The two primary areas where preseason results affect the betting markets are adjusting Week 1 numbers and moving the juice on season over/under win totals.  Some of these line moves are absolutely warranted; others are based on erroneous reactions to essentially meaningless football games.

I’m not willing to write off a team’s regular season chances based solely on preseason struggles.  But ignoring those struggles completely is the moral equivalent of sticking your head in the sand. A repeated inability to execute the game plan in August often carries over into September.

One NFL Division had more than their fair share of struggles in August, on at least one Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Preseason Gambling: Brady sits, Mallett starts vs. Redskins

08.07.2014     07:39 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Washington -1 O/U 38

The New England Patriots said that Tom Brady will not play in tonight's preseason opener at Washington. Back-up Ryan Mallett will start in his place.



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Washington Redskins




NFL Gambling: A look back at last year's 20* winner on Kansas City Over 7.5 wins

07.29.2014     07:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below is Teddy Covers' write-up for last year's NFL Season O/U Wins Report 20* winner. This year's report is currently available for purchase and will be released this afternoon. Teddy includes in-depth written analysis on all of plays.


20* Big Ticket: Kansas City OVER 7.5 Wins

The Chiefs are the poster child for the ‘expected to be the most improved team in the NFL’ category.  Quite literally, just about every statistic and metric that we have to predict NFL success or failure points towards an immediate turnaround in Kansas City this fall.  And when we start to break down the offseason moves for KC, the case for dramatic improvement is perfectly clear.

It all starts with last year, when KC was an injury riddled mess with a lame duck head coach and a consistent void at the quarterback position.  The Chiefs were tied dead last in the NFL in turnover margin in 2012, finishing with an average of -1.5 turnover differential per game.  Only five players started all 16 games; fewer than the number of players who finished the season on injured Read more



Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: The impact quarterbacks have on Season Over/Under Win totals Part I

07.28.2014     06:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve been writing about NFL Season Win Totals for the last few weeks, using what I call “advanced metric schedule analysis.”  This week, the time has come to write about another stage of the 2014 pre-preseason team analysis that affects every win total on the board – quarterbacks.

Why quarterbacks?  Because more than ever, in the modern ‘pass happy’ era of NFL Football, the quarterback is the most important position on any team.  Of course a great quarterback can’t be great without a decent receiving corps or a decent offensive line, so those must be included in the equation when discussing quarterbacks. 

Here’s what I wrote last year in this space:

“The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Season Over/Under Win "morphers"

06.23.2014     08:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the seven NFC teams that are projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014 based on the current market numbers for their season win totals.  I intended to write Part II of the article last week, talking about the four AFC teams that are also projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014, but I got derailed by the College Football Game of the Year openers at the Golden Nugget; a “must report” event.  So, let’s just call it better late than never!

The markets are telling us to expect more of the same from 12 of the 16 AFC teams.  What makes these four squads different? My goal here is to focus on why these particular teams are expected to improve or decline significantly compared to last year.  I’ll do that by looking at how the broader market conditions affect the numbers.  What do the markets fixate upon?  What do they largely ignore?  Read on to find out. 

Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5 in 2013, O/U 8 wins in 2014
Last year in this space, I called the Chiefs coming off a truly dismal 2-14 campaign “the poster child for Read more


Tags: NFL AFC Kansas City Chiefs Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals Houston Texas Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bet: Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards

01.30.2014     11:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over 39.5


Baldwin’s season averages won’t support this wager – hence some early Under money that drove this total from 40.5 down to 39.5 at several key books.   But with Percy Harvin on the field for the Super Bowl, it should open things up for Baldwin.  And Baldwin has become Wilson’s go-to guy down the stretch.  He had 63+ receiving yards six of the last nine games that he was involved in the offense (he  sat for most of their Week 17 regular season finale), including a six catch, 106 yard effort against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.  And this is the type of wager we can cash with a single big play!

Last season Teddy Covers and his clients CRUSHED the prop bets with a 10-1 record. For Sunday's Super Bowl XLVIII, he has nine props with analysis and a recommendation on the game's side. Get them all for only $49.

Below is what clients received with Teddy's prop bet package last year...

WIN - Will There Be Three Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers




AFC Championship Betting Recap: Denver's defense dominates New England

01.20.2014     06:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Masters class performance from Peyton Manning in terms of moving the chains and driving the field. Denver just marched up and down at will, though they had a tendency to stall and settle for field goals in a way that kept things in the neighborhood of getting interesting.

Early in the fourth quarter, Denver was up 23-3…with all 23 points coming on drives of 60 yards or more. That’s 3 field goals and 2 touchdowns. The yardage advantage after the drive was 430-160. Denver was 7 of 11 on third downs…meaning they were basically converting EVERY third down until they got close (only 1 punt, which came on their first drive of the day).

Manning finished with 400 passing yards, a 74% completion rate, no interceptions, and no sacks. As sharp as it gets.

And, you also have to give masters class credit to the Denver defense…because shutting down Tom Brady  most of the day like that ain't easy! Though, Patriots fans have actually seen a lot of this through Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos New England Patriots



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October

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 24, 2014 12:01 AM.