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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Xavier Musketeers vs. Arizona Wildcats

03.26.2015     07:01 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Xavier vs. Arizona -10.5 O/U 135.5
Recommendation: Arizona

My power ratings show Arizona right there with Duke as the second best team in the country.  The Wildcats are playing in a friendly, familiar venue in LA; certain to enjoy significant crowd support compared to Xavier in this game, to go along with their short travel time.  Their coach, Sean Miller, is arguably the best coach in college basketball never to reach the Final Four.  This team is a juggernaut, plain and simple, and the PAC 12’s 7-1 ATS mark over the opening weekend of the Big Dance speaks volumes about how undervalued this conference is on the national stage.

Xavier is no juggernaut.  The Big East really wasn’t very good this year – it was Villanova and then everybody else.  The Musketeers are tough and well coached, but they finished sixth in this mediocre conference with a 9-9 record in Big East play.  They are here only because of the ‘luck of the draw’; facing an Ole Miss team off extensive travel on short rest in the first round, followed by upstart #14 seed Georgia State in the Round of 32.

The Read more

Tags: College Basketball Xavier Musketeers Arizona Wildcats Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Sweet Sixteen Betting Preview

03.23.2015     07:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The insanity that is March Madness just provided bettors and fans alike with one of the more memorable opening weekends of NCAA Tournament action.  Now that the dust has settled, it’s time to take a look at the 16 teams still standing in the Big Dance from a pointspread perspective.  Which squads offer some semblance of betting value moving forward and which do not?  Read on to find out.

Two conferences stood out above the rest this past weekend.  The ACC sent a whopping five teams to the Sweet 16 out of six Big Dance entrants while going 11-1 SU.  But bettors didn’t make a dime supporting those ACC teams, who combined to go 5-7 ATS.  Duke was the lone ACC squad to notch a pair of pointspread covers.  Notre Dame was one of two teams (Kentucky being the other) to go 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS.

The PAC-12, on the other hand, produced both SU and ATS success for bettors this past weekend.  The four PAC-12 entrants combined to go 7-1 SU, sending three teams to the Sweet 16.  Even more impressively, the conference combined to go 7-1 ATS; the lone non-cover coming in Arizona’s 21 point opening round win as 23 point Read more

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Who has what it takes to win the Big Dance Part II

03.09.2015     06:12 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA champions.  From that profile, I was able to make a short list of potential champs in 2015, consisting of the following 12 teams:  Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, Kansas, Baylor, Villanova, Wisconsin, Maryland, Arizona, Utah and Kentucky.

However, since that article was written last week, one of those 12 teams has been bounced from consideration, with Baylor suffering their eighth loss of the season at Texas in overtime.  I don’t think the Bears were serious contenders to win the title, but now that they are above the seven loss cut-off line, we can eliminate Scott Drew’s squad from the discussion entirely.

The next step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from home.

The NCAA championship is not won on a team’s home floor.  Even with a favorable location one weekend, a team is still going to have to win Read more

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers Las Vegas

College Basketball Gambling: Seton Hall tries to weather storm

02.16.2015     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Things have gotten -- and still may be -- messy for Seton Hall after a player quit and rumors surfaced about a troubled locker room. The Pirates were 15-6, 5-4 but have dropped four straight and play the second of three straight road games at Villanova this evening. Head coach Kevin Willard commended his team for their effort in a spread covering 69-62 loss at Providence on Saturday.

"It's tough coming on the road after having to deal with a lot of B.S. over the last week," Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard said after the loss. "We came on the road to a packed house and I thought we did a good job of battling. (I'm) really proud of this team."

Tags: College Basketball Seton Hall Pirates Villanova Wildcats Big East

College Basketball Betting: Xavier says change coming after poor defensive effort

01.14.2015     07:26 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Xavier remains a tough nut to crack for bettors. The offense is potent but you have no idea what to expect from this squad defensively. They held Georgetown and Seton Hall to under 59 points but allowed 88 to Butler last time out. Head coach Chris Mack has voiced his frustration on multiple occasions and heading into tonight's game at Villanova, Mack claims there will be some change to his team's rotation.

"I think we definitely have to have changes, whether that's s lineup changes, whether that's during the course of rotations," Mack said. "We can't be happy with the results we're getting and expect different results by (doing the same thing). If it means different starters, different subs, I really don't care. The bottom line is that we need to win games."

"If a guy isn't playing with the energy required and toughness required to win at this level then I'm playing the wrong guys, or playing them too long," Mack said.

Tags: College Basketball Xavier Musketeers Villanova Wildcats

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Michigan Wolverines at Arizona Wildcats

12.13.2014     08:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Michigan at Arizona -11.5 O/U 129
Recommendation: Under

The Michigan Wolverines have really fallen on hard times with back-to-back losses to NJIT and Eastern Michigan. As a bettor, you can accept a stinker or two but concerns that it took place in back-to-back games after "lack of effort" was the original prognosis following the first loss. There are a lot of demands continuity-wise on both ends of the floor under John Beilein's system and there simply isn't the A-level talent and experience right now to offset the transition. Arizona continues to win by playing ugly basketball but that style isn't conducive for lots of pointspread success. The Wildcats are notorious for allowing foes to stick around as well as milking the clock with a lead. That said, they should be able to bully a Michigan squad short of size and experience. The betting markets were all over the Wolverines in what appeared to be an obvious bounceback vs. EMU. Here we see a line that would have been -8 to -10 two weeks ago at -11.5. We saw the Wolverines net 55 in a low possession slugfest against Villanova. Expecting a similar type of outcome today as we play under the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Michigan Wolverines Arizona Wildcats Andrew Lange

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: An early look at the Field of 68

03.17.2014     08:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’ve got brackets to break down! I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups already set for Thursday and Friday. Games are listed in rotation order.

The A-10 got a handful of mediocre teams like Dayton into the NCAA Tournament mix, but the Flyers will certainly be looking forward to a matchup against an Ohio State team that has repeatedly avoided them in non-conference play. The Buckeyes enter the tourney on an 0-6 ATS run; just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 tries as chalk.

Syracuse, too, was a pointspread disaster area down the stretch, cashing only one winning bet in their last eight ballgames. But Western Michigan’s only win against an NCAA Tournament team came on the opening night of the season, back on November 8th, when they beat New Mexico State.

Phil Martelli’s Saint Joseph’s team hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2004, when Jameer Nelson and Delonte West were his starting guards. UConn is a Top 10 team for free throw shooting percentage; always key in this ‘short favorite’ pointspread Read more

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Who Has What It Takes to Win the Big Dance Part II

03.03.2014     07:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In Part 1 of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA champions.  From that profile, I was able to make a ‘short list’ of potential champs in 2014, consisting of the following 18 teams: Cincinnati, Louisville, Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa State, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, UCLA, Florida and Kentucky.

However, since last week, two of those 18 teams have been bounced from consideration, including one of the co- favorites at any sportsbook in Vegas – John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats.  Kentucky lost two straight last week; Iowa has lost three of their last four.  Both teams are now above the seven loss cut-off line and can be eliminated.

The next step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from home.
The NCAA championship is not won on a team’s home floor.  Even with a Read more

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Villanova Wildcats at Creighton Bluejays

02.16.2014     08:27 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Villanova at Creighton -2.5 O/U 147
Recommendation: Creighton

Creighton has failed to cover the number in four consecutive games because it has been overpriced. However, in today's home game vs. Villanova, the price is right for a play on the Bluejays, who are 2.5-point home favorites vs. the Wildcats. Greg McDermott's team is undefeated in 13 home games this season with a 7-4 spread record. Creighton has been a single-digit home 'chalk' three times, posting a 2-1 ATS mark. When these teams met in Philadelphia on Jan. 20, it was all Creighton from the jump. The Bluejays put on a show, setting school and Big East records by draining 21-of-35 attempts from 3-point range. They led by 40 – that's right, 40! – with more than six minutes remaining. Ethan Wragge scored a career-high 27 points thanks to nine treys on 14 attempts. With eight 3-balls in the first 16 minutes and change, Wragge surpassed his previous career high of 22 points before halftime. Doug McDermott was steady as usual, producing 23 points on 8-of-13 shooting from the field. Austin Chatman dished out 10 assists, while Jahenns Manigat finished with 19 points. Now obviously, I'm Read more

Tags: College Basketball Villanova Wildcats Creighton Bluejays Brian Edwards

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Basketball Pointspread Juggernauts

02.03.2014     07:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The Super Bowl is in the rear view mirror after Sunday’s huge Seattle blowout, which can only mean one thing – college hoops is on center stage for the next eight weeks. I’ve been writing game previews for, but I’ve yet to write a true college basketball overview column so far this season. It’s time!

I’m going take a look at the four very best regular board pointspread teams in the country in this week’s column.  Elite level teams aren’t necessarily pointspread winners, and bottom feeders can cash ticket after ticket if the betting markets set numbers that allow them to hang within the number as big underdogs. And the very best pointspread teams tend to be under-the-radar type squads, like the single best ATS team in college hoops thusfar in the 2013-14 campaign.

Cleveland State has a decent record, sitting in a second place tie in the Horizon League standings with a 6-3 mark in conference; 15-9 SU overall. If the NCAA tournament started today, Gary Waters’ Vikings wouldn’t even sniff an at-large bid – they’ll need to win the league tournament to go Read more

Tags: College Basketball Cleveland State Vikings Utah Utes Wichita State Shockers Villanova Wildcats Teddy Covers


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