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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: NFL Pretenders and Contenders
09.24.2012 08:08 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
This week, I focused my attention on the six NFL teams that entered Week 3 with undefeated records. Contenders? Pretenders? Read on to find out my take!
San Francisco
- Randy Moss was targeted repeatedly here but he didn't make many plays. And this team is not taking 'big play' shots down the field; nothing but short, high percentage routes against the Vikings Cover-2. Normally, San Fran is consistently in third and short situations thanks to the strength of their running game. And with Alex Smith very capable of making short, accurate throws, they're going to be converting third downs at a high percentage all season long.
But this OL is better run blocking than they are pass blocking – Smith was forced out of the pocket repeatedly today by the Vikings pass rush. And for whatever reason, the Niners came out passing instead of running: nine throws on their first ten plays from scrimmage; finishing the game with nearly a 2:1 pass-to-run ratio. When Smith finally threw deep, trailing by eleven with less than three minutes to play, it was an overthrown interception; his first since last Thanksgiving at Baltimore.
The best defense in
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Tags:
NFL
San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
Philadelphia Eagles
Houston Texans
San Diego Chargers
Atlanta Falcons
Teddy Covers
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers' NFC East Gambling Preview
08.16.2012 01:10 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Dallas Cowboys
2011 was another disappointing year for the Cowboys. They outgained their opponents by 0.3 yards per play, and finished with a +4 turnover margin. Yet once again, Dallas found ways to lose tight games, suffering five losses by six points or less.
The Cowboys finished the campaign with an 8-8 SU, mark, but a money-losing 5-10-1 ATS record against a middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule. Despite some defensive shortcomings, the Cowboys went 10-6 to the Under. And their late season struggles continued – the Cowboys have only two winning Decembers in the last 18 years; none since 2001.
2012 Issues:
The Cowboys spent their offseason making moves that make it very clear that they feel that their window of opportunity is right now. They brought in six potential new starters in free agency, and hired former Raiders and Nebraska head coach Bill Callahan to coordinate the offense.
Cowboys QB Tony Romo is now in his seventh year as the starter. At 32 years old, Romo is coming off his best statistical season, and he’s got some decent weapons around him: Demarco
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Tags:
NFL
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
Washington Redskins
Teddy Covers
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers' AFC South Gambling Preview
08.02.2012 12:43 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Houston Texans
After nearly a decade of trying to get over the hump, the Texans finally broke through last year, going 10-6, winning the AFC South and even winning a playoff game. All that despite an injury plagued season that saw many of their top players go down for extended stretches.
Houston was a money winner for their supporters, thanks to a 9-5-2 ATS mark. They outgained their opponents by 0.9 yards per play, tied for second best in the NFL, and finished with a +7 turnover margin. The Texans were an Under team in 2011, cashing at a 10-6 clip.
But before we get carried away with all of the success, let’s not ignore that the Texans beat up on a very weak slate of opponents. Houston faced third easiest schedule in the NFL based on my numbers – numbers based on my power rating of their opponents for the week that the game was played.
2012 Issues:
Houston has fairly good continuity from last year to this year. Head coach Gary Kubiak and both coordinators return, most notably defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Phillips took a defense that had been ranked dead
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
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Handicapper Teddy Covers talks AFC North betting on the Sportsmemo Podcast
07.30.2012 09:58 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers and host Andrew Lange discussed the AFC North Division on Monday's Podcast. You can
listen here
.
2012 AFC North Betting Results and Odds
AFC North
2011 SU W-L
2011 ATS W-L
Season O/U (Pinny)
Division Odds (Pinny)
Baltimore
12-4
8-7-1
10un-125
+135
Pittsburgh
12-4
7-9
10un-114
+126
Cincinnati
9-7
8-6-2
8.5un-174
+405
Cleveland
4-12
7-8-1
5.5un-154
+2426
Teddy Covers 2012 NFL Season O/U Wins [61-27 69% Lifetime] $199
Teddy’s NFL Win Total Report is, quite simply, the best in the business, off another moneymaking season in 2011. He’s 61-27 (69%) lifetime with his win total recommendations dating back to 2002, including an outstanding 9-1 (90%) mark with his 20* Big Tickets. This is one report that even professional bettors can’t do without! Teddy’s first win total report
will be released on July 31st
, with a second report to follow later in the preseason. Sign up today for full access to the entire package.
Here is some written analysis from one of Teddy's O/U reports from 2011.
The Texans have spent the last four seasons trying to get over the hump from expansion franchise to
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Handicapping the NFL Playoffs: Houston Texans primed for postseason
01.05.2012 06:19 AM
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At the start of the NFL season, I made a
bold prediction
that the Houston Texans would not only make the playoffs for the first time ever, but make a run to the AFC Championship game. I projected they would be one of the most improved defenses in the league, and ended up finishing even stronger than expected with the No. 2 defense in the league (285 ypg allowed). Despite playing without top defender Mario Williams for extended time, the Texans managed the fourth-best rushing defense and second-rated pass defense. Their 3-4 defense was strong inside, as linebacker Brian Cushing was the team’s MVP, and the off-season acquisition of safety Danieal Manning proved to be
very productive
. Manning will not only be anchoring the defensive backfield in the playoffs, but he’ll be returning kickoffs again starting Saturday. Manning averaged 27.4 yards per kickoff returns this season, but has not returned kicks since returning from injury in late November. Manning also
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Cincinnati Bengals
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Handicapper Teddy Covers: Week 12 AFC Betting News and Notes
11.28.2011 08:30 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC News and Notes from Week 12.
Buffalo
Is it too early to call CJ Spiller a bust? He was an amazing playmaker at Clemson and the No. 9 overall draft choice by the Bills, but he's shown exactly zero playmaking ability at the NFL level. His long carry today, replacing Fred Jackson as the starter? Nine yards. In 25 games over two years with Buffalo (156 rushes and receptions coming following the game), Spiller has found the end zone only twice – less than the number of times that he's fumbled. And his contribution to the return game hasn't done a darn thing. Just their current four game skid, the Bills have collapsed on both sides of the football. This was their best offensive performance in nearly two months, but the secondary got absolutely torched in the second half. Without pro bowl caliber cornerback Terrance McGee (IR) in
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Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans
Jacksonsville Jaguars
New York Jets
Tennessee Titans
Oakland Raiders
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NFL Handicapper Gambling Notes: Who to bet on or fade in the AFC
11.14.2011 08:26 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
We’ve passed the halfway point of the NFL season. The final bye weeks come this Sunday in Week 11, and with that, we’ll enter the homestretch of the campaign. As we progress from Thanksgiving towards Christmas and New Year’s, I like to take a short break from my weekly Team Notes column – gotta keep the material fresh throughout the season. Instead of my AFC Team Notes this week, I’ll do a broader overview; taking a look at all 16 AFC teams to examine which squads offer real pointspread potential down the stretch, and which squads look like fade material during crunch time.
In the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills are trending downwards following their blowout loss at Dallas. The Bills have lost four out of six in SU fashion; their only two wins came against bottom feeders Philly and Washington. The Bills defense notched four interceptions in a game twice in a row earlier this year, and had three straight games with a defensive score. Those defensive scores haven’t been coming in recent weeks, and Buffalo is now 4-4-1 ATS; a team headed in wrong direction.
The New York Jets are 4-5 ATS, while
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NFL Handicapping Previews: Week 10 Interconferences matchups
11.12.2011 07:07 AM
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Buffalo
at
Dallas
-5.5
– This sets up as a high-scoring entertaining game. The underachieving Cowboys (4-4) have posted some impressive offensive numbers as they outgain a tougher schedule 400-335. Rookie running back DeMarco Murray has burst onto the scene and added to the offense’s success. I expect Tony Romo to have a big game even without WR Miles Austin, as the Cowboys speedy receivers and top TE will make plenty of plays against a suspect secondary. The Bills (5-3) defense allows 381 ypg and 6.0 yards per play including 260 passing ypg and 7.7 yards per pass attempt. The Bills offense has been efficient in the red zone and is more balanced with a top-tier running game and breakout season from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Against a Dallas secondary missing CB Jenkins and top tackler LB Lee hurting and questionable, the Bills offense should also enjoy success Sunday. Bills head coach Chan Gailey returns to Dallas where he coached in the late 90’s, and he’s one of the top offensive
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Dallas Cowboys
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Houston Texans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins
Miami Dolphins
St. Louis Rams
Cleveland Browns
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Teddy Covers: Week 2 AFC Betting News and Notes
09.19.2011 09:15 AM
Teddy Covers
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Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps simply don’t have. This week: AFC Tidbits from Week 2.
Cincinnati
: The offensive play calling was downright stupid. Jay Gruden crashed and burned as an Arena Football coach; I was shocked he got the offensive coordinator job here. Gruden spent the first 40 minutes calling one predictable play after the next – running to the left side and throwing safe five-yard check down passes. Hello, Champ Bailey is hurt and you've got speedy downfield weapons!! The Bengals were completely inept in third-and-short situations – three times in the first half, they had 3rd-and-1 or shorter, three times they failed to convert. Their first and only third down conversion for the entire game came after the two
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Cincinnati Bengals
Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos
Baltimore Ravens
Miami Dolphins
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
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NFL Handicapping: Houston Texans will reach AFC title game
09.08.2011 07:55 AM
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NFL Bold Prediction -
All the parts are in place for another sensational showing on offense especially when you consider Houston’s offense was third in the NFL last season and averaged the worst starting field position in the league. The ground game should be strong with the reigning rushing champ Arian Foster and the pass/catch combo of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson is one of the league’s best. Make no mistake, the Texans’ defense was a disaster last season, but their young and talented front seven should be much improved under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips who plans on adding more pressure off the edge in his 3-4 scheme. Add in a revamped secondary and Houston’s D has the makings of being one of the most improved in the league. With Peyton Manning down for the count and mediocrity expected from Tennessee and Jacksonville, the AFC South is there for the taking. I’m projecting Houston to not only win the division crown but find its way to the AFC title game despite just
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