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NBA Handicapping: Dallas Mavericks one of many teams struggling to score

01.17.2012     01:39 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Some startling numbers on how bad offenses have been in the NBA with a focus on the Dallas Mavericks who shot 35% in last night's ugly 73-70 loss to the Lakers. There are currently 21 teams shooting 45% or worse – up from last year's 13. Nineteen teams are averaging 96 ppg or less.

"Hasn't been there all year," Terry said of a Mavs offense that ranks 21st in scoring at 92.6 points a game and 22nd in field-goal percentage at 43.1. "But defensively, we're doing our job. We just have to make shots. Stay encouraged; defensively we're playing our ass off. We'll get there. Again, it was just an uncharacteristic, off-shooting night for us. I'm not really concerned."

"Throughout the season," said Dirk Nowitzki, averaging just 17.9 points on 46.9 percent shooting and 19.2 percent from 3-point range, "I expect a lot of ugly games like that to happen. It's just normal."

Tags: NBA Dallas Mavericks

Handicapping the NFL Playoffs: Statistical percentages vs. Betting lines

01.17.2012     01:24 PM     Printer Friendly
Quick look at the comparison between Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) playoffs odds and CRIS's betting lines.


Here are the moneyline to percentage calculations based on CRIS's lines.

New England (-350) is 78% to beat Baltimore

San Francisco (-135) is 57% to beat New York

Here are the odds to win the Super Bowl; moneyline and percentages.

New England (+105) 48.7%

New York Giants (+240) 29.4%

San Francisco (+240) 29.4%

Baltimore (+650) 13.3%

Tags: NFL

Gambling on the NFL Playoffs: Baltimore prepares for trip to New England

01.17.2012     01:05 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Baltimore at New England -7.5 O/U 50.5

New England has defeated Baltimore six out of the last seven in the series, but the Ravens did win in Foxboro during the 2009 playoffs. Winning on the road during this year's regular season proved to be difficult for Baltimore but the team is instead focusing on its past success on the highway during the postseason (4-3 SU/ATS last four years).

"The last four times we played them, going back to `97, all four of them have been wars," Johnson said. "Even though they've won three of the four, they had to earn it. This one is not going to be any different. It's going to be an extremely intense situation and environment, and we're looking forward to it. It's going to be fun."

"I think it helps just by the fact that we've done it," he said. "Most of our team has been there before.

Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens New England Patriots

NBA Betting Free Pick: Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers

01.17.2012     12:46 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Golden State +2.5 at Cleveland O/U 196.5
Recommendation: Golden State

Expect another strong effort out of Golden State tonight as they continue their road trip with a game in Cleveland against the Cavs.  Here’s what forward David Lee said on the eve of the trip: “If we come back with a losing record from this road trip, it should be a huge disappointment. This is a road trip to places where we need to go take care of business and get three or possibly four victories. I don't see it any other way at this point."

But Mark Jackson’s squad started the trip with a complete no-show in Charlotte, blown off the court by the lowly Bobcats.  They were outscored 66-46 before halftime, and never came close to making up the deficit in the final 24 minutes of play.  Forward Dominic McGuire: “We took it for granted. We came out thinking this was an automatic win….I don't think it was anything they did. They were hitting shots but ... 38 Read more

Tags: NBA Golden State Warriors Cleveland Cavaliers Teddy Covers

NFL Betting News: Sportsbooks in fear of a New York Giants Super Bowl run

01.17.2012     10:27 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Both offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks are facing some hefty payouts if the New York Giants continue to win.

The Giants right now are our biggest loser if they were to win the Super Bowl,” Kevin Bradley, Bovada sportsbook manager told the New York Post last week.

“Before the first Cowboys-Giants game (in Week 14), we actually had a big customer put down a large bet on the Giants to win both the NFC crown and the Super Bowl,” Chris Andrews, assistant director of Club Cal Neva Sports Books, said. “This customer took 60-1 for the Super Bowl and 30-1 for the conference."

“If the Giants win the Super Bowl, it will be a very nice score for the betting public,” says David Mason, spokesperson for Panama-based “It seems like no matter the sport, there is just so much public money coming out of the Big Apple, we are more often than not exposed a bit. This year is no different. Even a season like this one, when the Giants had to go down to the wire to even make the

Read more

Tags: NFL New York Giants

Sports Betting Podcast 1-17-2012 with Rob Veno and Erin Rynning

01.17.2012     10:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Rob Veno and Erin Rynning. Rob covered tonight's College Basketball while Erin tackled every game on the NBA card.

Today's segments
Rob Veno - College Basketball Every Game on the Board

Erin Rynning - NBA Every Game on the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Basketball NBA Rob Veno Erin Rynning

Gambling on the NFL Playoffs: San Francisco well aware of different Giants team

01.17.2012     10:09 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The red hot Giants, led by quarterback Eli Manning, look to be a different bunch than the ones that traveled to San Francisco earlier in the year. The 49ers have taken notice. Some quotes and notes here from the Mercury News:

"Eli's not throwing many interceptions," said 49ers cornerback Tarell Brown, who had one of the 49ers' two interceptions against Drew Brees in Saturday's 36-32 divisional win over the New Orleans Saints.

Manning tallied nine touchdown passes, one interception and 953 yards as the Giants won their past three elimination games: A 31-14 victory over Dallas to clinch the NFC East, a 24-2 rout of the Atlanta Falcons in the wild-card round and Sunday's dethroning of the Packers.

Manning had two passes intercepted in the Nov. 13 loss. His fateful 40th attempt was knocked down by lineman Justin Smith's right hand on fourth down with 34 seconds left.

"Eli has been money all year," Smith said Monday. "(When) we played him, he was dropping balls in there that only the receiver could get to. It's going to be a tough

Read more

Tags: NFL New York Giants San Francisco 49ers

NBA Handicapping: Phoenix Suns continue to struggle on offense

01.17.2012     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Phoenix at Chicago

Article of Phoenix's struggles on offense this year. The Suns are averaging 11.2 ppg below last year's mark and don't feature a player in the top 50 in scoring.

“I think everyone is going to score more,” said Nash, who posted 20 points and 10 assists despite a sore quadriceps. “There’s going to be more cohesion. We’ll see more balance, and we’ll see more guys scoring. It’ll get better.”

“We’ve got to have Channing shoot the ball better than he is,” Suns coach Alvin Gentry said. “JD (Dudley) is starting to come into his own, shoot better and make plays. We’ve just got to get ourselves running and get easy layups. The history of our team and how it has shot well came from how we would get layups and dunks. To be in a half-court situation so often is not

Read more

Tags: NBA Phoenix Suns Chicago Bulls

College Basketball Betting: Analyzing close against the spread results

01.17.2012     07:14 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
This is Part I of a series of articles to be posted on college basketball results and the impact against the spread (ATS). I’m often asked about close results and usually emailed, tweeted or text a message about a close win or loss (usually loss). It’s important to understand some of the random variances that can take place in betting sports, and in this case college basketball. Over the course of a college basketball season the average margin of a final score will fall with 8-9 points from the betting line.

Over the past few weeks we have suffered our share of close ATS losses, including 0-5 the past three days for results that landed within five points of the betting line. Along with some service selections, my personal wagering has resulted in a 0-5 recent run for games that landed within one point of the betting line.  Yet despite some recent less than desired results, we’ve been on quite a run on our top-rated Big Drive plays. Since late November the record stands 25-7.

Through the winning run and full season, I spend many hours logging and tracking scores, stats and lines. I’ve been tracking scores and documenting the results Read more

Tags: College Basketball __

NBA Betting Trends: Chicago Bulls fit strong profile for matchup vs. Phoenix

01.17.2012     07:00 AM     Printer Friendly
Pretty impressive betting trend in action tonight in the NBA with the Chicago Bulls off a game in which they allowed more than 100 points* (102-86 loss at Memphis). Over the last two seasons, the Bulls are an amazing 14-3 ATS and 4-13 O/U in this profile. The two 64-point performances came this season. The rest during the 2010-11 season. No line yet on tonight's game against Phoenix – Derrick Rose currently listed as doubtful. *In regulation

Chicago Bulls Betting Results Last Two Season After Allowing 100 points
Points Allowed
Bulls ATS
92 (OT)
Oklahoma City
110 (OT)
86.2 pgg
14-3 ATS
4-13 O/U

Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls Phoenix Suns

NCAA Basketball Gambling: Michigan looks for three straight over rival Michigan State

01.17.2012     06:25 AM     Printer Friendly
Michigan State -1 at Michigan O/U 131.5

Notes on tonight's Michigan State-Michigan matchup in Ann Arbor. Both teams come in off of losses –MSU fell at Northwestern 81-74 and UM was blown out at Iowa, 75-59. The Wolverines has some pretty strong ATS trends in their favor: 15-4 ATS run vs. Big Ten, 27-8 ATS run as an underdog, 15-6 ATS run at home. Michigan won both meetings last season, 70-63 (-1) and 61-57 (+11).

Tags: College Basketball Michigan Wolverines Michigan State Spartans

College Basketball Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles

01.17.2012     06:08 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Maryland at Florida State
Recommendation: Maryland +6.5 1st half

Beating North Carolina at home wasn't that monumental of an achievement for Florida State – despite what the Seminoles’ student body showcased after the buzzer. However, hanging 90 on the Tar Heels in route to a 33-point victory is no doubt going to make FSU's players feel good about themselves. Letdowns happen all of the time in college hoops and the odds of that occurring to the Seminoles – for at least parts of tonight's game – are pretty good. I will say that of all of the potential letdown victims, it is the teams with elite level defenses which are typically the least susceptible – something that FSU without question has. The one thing the Seminoles don't have though is the ability to consistently knock down shots. Against a majority of the better teams on their schedule, the Seminoles failed to top 1.0 point per possession. Maryland is a different squad Read more

Tags: College Basketball Maryland Terrapins Florida State Seminoles Andrew Lange





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